does anyone think the pipeline being out of use is a bad thing?
Me, because the company I work for had a €1bn stake in Nordstream 2, (written off) and were the largest importer of European gas down Nordstream 1. As a consequence my sharesave investments fell by 95%. 😭
That's a unique personal reason though granted. I'm not sad it's made future benefits for Putins regime much harder, assuming he doesn't get bumped off by someone.
That Twitter link completely blows that original "USA did it" article out of the water. (Pls pardon the pun.)
does anyone think the pipeline being out of use is a bad thing?
I dont think its a bad thing because it stops Russia exporting oil long term. Given how they have been proven to meddle in other countries elections and (ahem) referenda, how do we know they are not also meddling in western public opinion about fossil fuel usage? I dont trust BP or Shell, but I trust Russia even less.
I do wonder what part Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia played in this. They all loathe Russia with a passion and they all have a baltic coastline.
The most implausibel thing is that the investigation failed to find out more. I suspect it did but we aren’t being told.
Every security service in the world will know exactly who did it. They aren't publicly commenting because they don't want to tip their hand as to what they know and also because Russia did it and it's better to pretend they don't know than to have to acknowledge that.
Russia did it to demonstrate to the West how easy it is for them to cut undersea infrastructure covertly and deniably. A warning that if sanctions or military support for Ukraine went too far, they could easily sever the internet and other communications links across the Atlantic seabed and elsewhere that would create chaos and cripple economies.
This is pretty much it.
@thols2 good post about the Intelligence community knowing exactly who did it. Thinking about it more I am not convinced it was Russia though. We will find out eventually though.
< A warning that if sanctions or military support for Ukraine went too far, they could easily sever the internet and other communications links across the Atlantic seabed and elsewhere that would create chaos and cripple economies.>
That came up at the time of the blasts, and since then no choas or crippling economies despite support for Ukraine going much further. It's inventing justifications for Russia.
That came up at the time of the blasts, and since then no choas or crippling economies despite support for Ukraine going much further. It’s inventing justifications for Russia.
Possibly because all Russia's 'red lines' and threats to deter western support seem to shift or evaporate every time their bluff is called. Actually sabotaging the world's electronic communications is much, much different to just demonstrating the capability as a threat. To do it for real would be a massive escalation that would affect many countries who have so far stayed on the fence or even supported Russia. There would be a global backlash against Russia far in excess of current sanctions.
Below is what Biden said last year (it’s in the first discussion link I posted, but this is the statement alone). Watching that after reading the Hersh article I find it hard to stop my brain going ‘jesus of course is was the Americans!’, but I know that’s not a rational response
Not least because it was a joint press conference (if I've got the right one, STW mangles my ability to watch linked YouTube vids) with Chancellor Scholtz on Monday 7th Feb 2022, two weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. It was specific to NS2 only
""If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the ... border of Ukraine again, then there will be ... no longer a Nord Stream 2. We, we will bring an end to it," Biden said." Chancellor Scholtz scholtzed and agreed that the US and Germany were on the same page while not naming NS2 specifically https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-germanys-scholz-stress-unified-front-against-any-russian-aggression-toward-2022-02-07/
Germany didn't certify NS2 and it hasn't pumped gas into Germany, thus bringing an end to it. Only one pipeline of NS2 was damaged, NS2B is still functional as far as I'm aware, but uncertified
Russia reduced supplies to Europe via NS1 in August 2021, six months before they invaded, IMHO in the hope of lowering European gas stocks through winter 21/22. Russia again reduced NS1 supplies before winter 22/23 and switched it off in September 2022. The sabotage happened, spookily, in September 2022.
AIUI, only Russian oil is banned from the EU, piped gas supplies continue into Europe overland and probably will for at least another 18 months. If the pattern follows the end of WW2 and petrol exports, then Russia will export cheap gas to get money back in the coffers and NS2B is well-placed to pump increased volumes of cheap gas in the future
Possibly because all Russia’s ‘red lines’ and threats to deter western support seem to shift or evaporate every time their bluff is called. Actually sabotaging the world’s electronic communications is much, much different to just demonstrating the capability as a threat.
Another thing to think about is that intelligence and diplomatic services have backchannels to their counterparts in other countries. The western countries will have been talking to Russia and laying things out - basically that they know what Russia did and the consequences if they keep it up. Keep in mind that Russian infrastructure is running on imported hardware and software, a lot of which will be old. Russian systems will be extremely vulnerable to deniable cyberattacks. I'm guessing that Russia is reminded of that on pretty much a daily basis.
Indeed, they may possibly even have shared intelligence proving Russian involvement but agreed not to release it publically so long there is no repeat. Speculation? Yes, but the West demonstrated a new willingness to share intelligence against Russia to prevent false flag justifications for the invasion, so using it to prevent critical infrastructure sabotage wouldn't be a huge leap IMO.
I still think its an open verdict until more evidence surfaces.
Unlikely to ever happen. The only 'evidence' could come from which or whose ships were in the area, in the days or weeks surrounding the actual incident.
Russia didn't fekking do it. Obviously. They'd have turned off the tap - it would have been cost-free and easy.
Why cost yourself a fortune in rebuild when you could just turn the tap off?
Sad that at the time. You'd have to be daft to think it was Russia.
It's quite delightful and reassuring how there are people on here who can clear up any questions about explosions, kilometre-wide gas bubbles and international affairs with such perspicacity, understanding and certainty.
Bit surprised though that Kim Dotcom didn't even merit a mention.
Kim Dotcom never merits a mention
keep an “open mind”.
The only problem with that is that people will keep throwing rubbish into it.
There are some fantasies on here about the intelligence of the “international intelligence community“ based more on Hollywood movies than any actual history of success.
The logical fallacy of them not revealing what they know as evidence of their success is especially convenient.
They got it bang on about the invasion of Ukraine, despite vehement denials from Russia and scepticism from just about everyone else, including many in Ukraine.
The logical fallacy of them not revealing what they know as evidence of their success is especially convenient.
You could argue that them not revealing what they know is especially convenient for the security of their source. "Putin said to Lukashenko..." hmmm, who was present during that conversation?
A successful “intelligence community” might have exposed and countered a decade+ misinformation campaign by the Russians, exposing and countering the financing of disruptive political movements, the bribery and corruption of politicians and financial institutions.
if predicting an invasion after a massive build up of troops on the border is considered a success, then we may as well employ Paul the octopus to do their job. But if not revealing imaginary information to protect an imaginary source is part of your narrative, then keep watching bond movies and projecting fantasy to onto reality to keep yourself feeling safe and happy.
Can you keep a secret?
Yes.
You're in!
A secret is something known to only two people, as long as one of them is dead!
Can you keep a secret?
not telling
can you predict who will win the premier league?
yes and I will till you if I was right when it’s over
ooh, it’s the rapid promotion scheme for you!
Well if the objective of Hersh's theory was to persuade people it wasn't the Americans he's done pretty well. A bit too elaborate his theory when it would have only taken rocking up in a submarine and leaving some improvised explosive devices with timers, preferably made with parts that didn't point straight at whoever did it.
well this made it to the mainstream:
Well, that was a whole lot of nothing much that signed off with “dunno mate”
I find it kind of interesting that no one has a clue, and that the german officials haven't ruled out it may have been a western government
You honestly believe everything comes out in public? I am very sure some people have a very good idea. But they aren't american journalists based the other side of the atlantic with no real background or information.
Yes. Pulitzer prize-winning journalists with a track record of uncovering US criminality are just amateur idiots.
Yes. Pulitzer prize-winning journalists with a track record of uncovering US criminality are just amateur idiots.
He also thinks that the skripal poisoning was faked
Di you agree with that?
Yes. Pulitzer prize-winning journalists with a track record of uncovering US criminality are just amateur idiots.
the whole article is demonstrable garbage. So in this case, yes.
Doesn’t mean the US didn’t do it, just not like that.
Doesn’t mean the US didn’t do it, just not like that.
100% agree
He also has a bonkers conspiracy theory about bin laden
https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/8584473/seymour-hersh-osama-bin-laden
Doesn’t mean the US didn’t do it, just not like that.
Agreed. The timing of this just before the 1 year anniversary is odd as well.
I wonder if The Times have picked this up as part of the overall Murdoch empire historical anti liberal pro-Putin approach and criticism of the war as a way to get at Biden eg Tucker Carlson/Fox news.
Reading back on Hersh's work it seems to have got increasingly wild in recent years eg questioning Skripal, Syria gas attacks, Obama & Bin Laden. His latest theory is Russia has over 300,000 of their best crack troops waiting in Russia to be deployed at the right time (MOD thinks 97% of Russian forces are currently in Ukraine). I think he has completely missed the value of verification by OSINT by the likes of Eliot Higgins and Oliver Alexander, who will spend weeks fact checking using Satilite images, vessel tracking sites, Street view etc
Oliver Alexander in particular has done loads more work finding holes in Hersh's theory. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK. His latest theory is an accidental rupture in Nordstream2 may have prompted the Russians to detonate charges on Nordstream 1. its all on his Twitter feed.
Appreciate this may not work for some people if they are already well down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole....
The Times have picked this up as part of the overall Murdoch empire historical anti liberal pro-Putin approach
Just because Times Radio, Fox News, whoever carry a story doesn't mean they think it isn't conspiracy theory nonsense... only that it's "of interest" to readers/watcher/listeners.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/02/16/fox-news-2020-lies-dominion-suit/
Reading back on Hersh’s work it seems to have got increasingly wild in recent years eg questioning Skripal, Syria gas attacks, Obama & Bin Laden. His latest theory is Russia has over 300,000 of their best crack troops waiting in Russia to be deployed at the right time (MOD thinks 97% of Russian forces are currently in Ukraine). I think he has completely missed the value of verification by OSINT by the likes of Eliot Higgins and Oliver Alexander, who will spend weeks fact checking using Satilite images, vessel tracking sites, Street view etc
Oliver Alexander in particular has done loads more work finding holes in Hersh’s theory. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK. His latest theory is an accidental rupture in Nordstream2 may have prompted the Russians to detonate charges on Nordstream 1. its all on his Twitter feed.
Appreciate this may not work for some people if they are already well down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole…
Agreed about Hersh. Open Democracy interviewed him recently about his pipeline theory and he seemed pretty erratic to my mind. That in itself doesn't say anything, obviously (some absolute lunatics can present very well; Richard Spencer, for example), but it didn't give me much confidence in Hersh.
Not sure if you listened to the Times Radio thing, but the Times foreign correspondent (Marc Bennetts) doesn't buy Hersh's theory either (he doesn't think Hersh has even one reliable source for something like this). But he also explicitly did not rule out the USA as being behind it, and mentioned that the German government feel the same way
Just because Times Radio, Fox News, whoever carry a story doesn’t mean they think it isn’t conspiracy theory nonsense… only that it’s “of interest” to readers/watcher/listeners.
@kelvin sure, but they would frame it as such if so, and they don't
They (well, Marc Bennetts) doesn't buy Hersh's story, but they explicitly don't rule the USA out
They also don't think we'll find out what happens for decades, at which point no one will care
I think it is a well trodden path with journalists like Hersh, who expose establishment crimes and corruption. They get their big story maybe a few years of respect, then the establishment takes its retribution. The sources dry up, the editorial support evaporates and the article commissions get less frequent and from less established outlets.
The west doesn't have a free media, we have an owned media which is overwhelmingly and increasingly a mouthpiece for the oligarchy and the establishment. iirc it was the Levenson report which revealed the cosy triangle of backscratching, support and corruption between the media, the police and politics in the UK, in the US it is clearly even worse.
Given that environment, when a journalist is effectively "blacklisted" by the establishment, it is no surprise that all they can do is theorise and become increasingly paranoid, they have a reason to be paranoid, unfortunately imposing that paranoia onto everything they subsequently report on pushes them further into the side-lines.
but they would frame it as such if so
Did you read the stuff about Fox News pushing a conspiracy theory that they knew was such, without framing it as such?
I don't think this is something that The Times (paper) or Sky News would do, but I don't know enough about how Times Radio is structured yet in terms of editorial control and standards of journalism... let's just say I'm suspicious and wouldn't consider them publishing a story as lending any credibility to it at all... they are so far unproven and are part of the Murdoch family... I wouldn't rule out the "interest" of stories outweighing other factors as they try and grab an audience.
@kelvin whoops, I must have blanked out you mentioning Fox. Yea, I don't trust them one bit.
I trust Times, but haven't looked into them a huge amount tbh.
The really worrying thing about this is that if it was indeed Russia, and among the top of the potential explinations as to why is that Putin's actions have become insane and irrational, rather than just violent and poorly calculated, then, well, shit, he has a lot of nukes he could lash out with irrationaly
The only reason Russia would do it would be as a false flag type operation. It goes against logic. Team USA much more likely imo.
Did you read the stuff about Fox News pushing a conspiracy theory that they knew was such, withoutframing it as such?
What, this?
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/joy-reid-fox-news-lawsuits-rcna71292</span>
Like all Republicans and their glove-puppet media drones, you can always tell when they’re lying, their lips are moving and sounds are coming out of their mouths.
<div id="post-12730912" class="bbp-reply-header d-flex justify-content-between w-100">
<div class="bbp-reply-author d-flex align-items-center flex-wrap"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.8rem;">The only reason Russia would do it would be as a false flag type operation. It goes against logic. Team USA much more likely imo.</span></div>
</div>
<div>Why? False flag operations are an integral part of Russia’s warfare and propaganda strategy, which they likely adopted from similar Nazi WW2 tactics, like Operation Himmler.</div>
<div></div>
<div> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler</div>
<div></div>
<div>Just look at the Salisbury poisonings, Putin absolutely denied any involvement, blaming it on our Government trying to destabilise Russia. The whole thing was utterly inept, but played well for those back home who believe implicitly everything they’re told. A false flag operation.
Russia has submersibles specifically designed to carry out this type of attack on foreign targets while allowing Russia to deny involvement and claim its a foreign false flag operation to make Russia look bad internationally.
Putin ran the KGB/FSB, he’s spent his entire life and career doing this stuff and using Russian media to create the Russia-as-victim narrative at home.</div>
BTW, I’m getting really fed up with all of the extra formatting crap that keeps appearing, I thought that had been dealt with ages ago. 🤬
The west doesn’t have a free media, we have an owned media which is overwhelmingly and increasingly a mouthpiece for the oligarchy and the establishment.
Really? Have you been paying any attention at all to what’s happening in Russia, India, Hungary, China…?
🙄
