Panic has already kicked off with the news saying that a BOE intervention will cause a 20-40% housing drop over 2 years.
Truss is ****ed. She needs a massive U Turn very quickly or bugger all, either way she and Kwarteng are out. They’ve sunk the Uk and the Tory party over a single weekend.
Thank goodness we didn’t have Chaos with Ed Miliband.
Barely a day has gone by in the last few years where I haven’t thought about the fact that I didn’t vote for Labour when Miliband was leader. And I’m in a seat where every Labour vote matters. What an idiot.
Yes, always bearing in mind that people voted for the current government and the last couple of prime ministers.
They’ve sunk the Uk and the Tory party over a single weekend.
Pretty impressive when you put it that way!
that people voted for the current government and the last couple of prime ministers
You can’t blame them. They had to do it, so that they could save Brexit from unpatriotic dogooders that were going to stop us getting our lower prices in the sunlit uplands.
Anyway, changing you mind is good. I wish I’d voted Labour under both Brown and Miliband. Welcome onboard to anyone regretting voting Tory when May or Johnson led them, or not using their vote effectively or tactically to try and unseat their Tory MP. Regret is fine. Let’s all learn from it. Vote to get these people out if you are given the chance.
The longer this goes on, and the deeper the crisis, the stronger mandate Labour will eventually have to really change things.
I used to think this about Boris, the difference with him was that he was too idiotic and useless to actually cause a huge amount of harm. Truss seems to be very efficient at breaking things so my worry is how bad will things get between now and an election.
Christ, I almost miss Boris.
Boris put in a really good cycle lane in London that went from Tower Bridge to Westminster, and he knew how to throw a good party.
Johnson did untold damage to the UK. Yeah, Truss is adding to that, but don’t imagine for a moment that Johnson had finished wrecking things. The downward slide and division of the UK would still have continued if he’d stayed in place.
Johnson was a populist, he swayed to what would make him look good, he was also notorious around the departments as not really having conviction to do things, so leaving it to the permanent staff.
Truss is way worse, she has no care of being popular with all, just a select few, and she’s already moved on permanent secretaries to align more with whatever their plans are, she’s doing stuff boris wouldn’t contemplate, which says it all!
An other mini budget announced for 23rd November - Tories giving themselves time to sort out the shitstorm they’ve created, and also after the next BOE review. So I expect this and an emergency rise by the BOE to calm the market a bit, although it’ll remain turbulent as trust in UK GDP has gone.
Anyone still trying to maintain Kwasi Kwartang isn’t a total ****-wit?
With compressing this amount of damage into a single week (and you get the feeling he’s still only warming up), he’s making Chris Grayling look like a beacon of competence and assurance
An other mini budget announced for 23rd November
Any bets on it getting brought forward to say, the first week of October? Let's see if Liz throws her 'close friend' under the bus now.
Anyone still trying to maintain Kwasi Kwartang isn’t a total ****-wit?
Their actions seem to be baffling everyone.
It seems that 99% of economists are predicting a complete disaster.
They cannot be this stupid, I actually think it's deliberate. They are deliberately laying waste to the UK.
Why and under who's direction, I do not know.
No rate rise announcement from BoE, so £ falling again
Kwertang says he will have a costed spending programme ..... in a month
Farcical
https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1574420093206929409?t=TDGLxcTMps5uMdR_ywsNiQ&s=19
Letters of no confidence already being drafted apparently...if the £ hits parity with the $, expect loads to be submitted...
Gobuchal. They are wedded to the ideology and have no dissenting voices around them. I think they genuinely believe the tripe they utter. Its the hubris of those who are intelligent in only one narrow area of intelligence. A total unwillingness to look wider and to take into account alternative views or to look at lessons from history. They are so lacking in some forms of intelligence like emotional intelligence that it is impossible for them to even comprehend that they could be wrong.
They are also being played by a cabal of far right interests who are in effect puppet masters.
They made their views clear a long time ago in " brittania unchained"
Its a mindset that many in politics especially on the right have.
" I want this to be right and I'm so clever it must be right and anyone who says differently is wrong and not worth listening to"
God complex
Big kick can down the road, agreeing to do something knowing full well you won't be the job when you have to deliver it vibes here...
https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1574416010874040322
Or just buying time to try to do the homework he should have handed in last week
that smacks of "just say anything"
Mid-term fiscal plan announcement on 23 Nov will have proper OBR scrutiny.
I note that UK financial reserves are c£100 billion which is a big number but inadequate for the GDP ranking.
It's also why the BoE will rely on interest rates as the size of the reserve is insuffucient to support large scale sales and maintain an appropriately sized balance.
Sovereign wealth fund? Oh yeah, forgot the gov of the day decided against when north sea oil was in full flow.
So sterling is going to finish even lower than it did on Friday, isn't it? Sweet baby Jesus. Imagine the media response if this was anyone but the Tories.
You can only blame your predecessors for so long, I reckon they can only say “it was the last lot’s fault” for a maximum of 6 months before it wears thin, even if it is the truth. By the time they leave the Truss Government may well have just ensured the problems a new government has to tackle are too big and they end up as a single term footnote before normal Tory business is resumed…
The tory voters in my office have been tying themselves in knots to justify why they will still vote for them in the next election. They keep trotting out actions Gordon Brown did OVER 15 YEARS AGO as chancellor as justification for everything wrong at the moment.
Kwarteng isn't thick, but he's dangerous because he thinks he's correct despite all evidence to the contrary
Those who says Johnson was not so bad. The damage from brexit in its hardest form dwarfs anything else in terms of damage as its long lasting and almost impossible to reverse.
Trusses nonsense means some lost years but can be reversed and recovered
Those that were hoping for Truss over Sunak because it would might mean short term hurt, but in the medium term makes the Tories totally unelectable; did you really think short term meant 10 days and medium term 'within a month or so'
Guy on 5 live just now saying that it's likely some mortgage payments could.go up by 100%, lenders already pulling fixed deals from the market.
That'll be lots of us ****ed.
Theotherjonv
I didnt think so quickly no.
mortgage payments can be slightly managed for most people by heading interest only or for a very long term - most banks will take a term that finishes well into your 70s, and whilst that might not be great, it can manage affordability in the short term.
anyone who's mortgage was approved in the last 8 (?) years should have been pressure tested against the rates going up by 4%, so it'll get expensive for sure, but it might not be the end of the world.
Housing market should be f..ked though
They can’t change current fixes can they 🥺
sc-xc, depends on the extent to which borrowers stress-tested their finances.
tj, how many lost years do you have in mind and how do you envisage the reversal and recovery taking place?
Housing market should be f..ked though
That will annoy the Tory base...the Stamp Duty reduction won't even touch the sides!
Even if they were pressure tested it won’t have taken all other cost increases in to account. Energy, fuel, food, clothing etc. I think a lot of people are going to end up in a very hard place unfortunately.
I got very lucky and fixed for 5 years at 1.69% in Feb this year. I'll finish paying off my car next year and after that will be overpaying on my mortgage for the remaining 4 years of this deal. I had been thinking of moving house, but i'm parking that idea now, i'd rather just limit my outgoings as best as i can to mitigate the shitstorm that's coming
Those that were hoping for Truss over Sunak because it would might mean short term hurt
No some of us wanted Truss over Sunak because Sunak seemed intent on crashing the economy by not capping energy bills. Truss caved in on that (as we predicted). What wasn't foreseen was that she'd go far further on unfunded tax cuts for the rich than she claimed in her leadership campaign. That is what has spooked the markets. Sunak would have been just as bad.
It's interesting though that Truss/Kwarteng seem happy to burst the house price bubble. That's pretty much the main thing that has propped them up over the past 12 years. When property prices crash their last remaining support will evaporate.
That will annoy the Tory base…the Stamp Duty reduction won’t even touch the sides!
It'll annoy me, we've sold our old flat to some friends who're currently housing a family of Ukrainian refugees, already about 10% below the valuation because of their circumstances if this shitstorm comes to pass then we'll be stuck with two mortgages and whatever happens to house prices 😬
Even if they were pressure tested it won’t have taken all other cost increases in to account. Energy, fuel, food, clothing etc. I think a lot of people are going to end up in a very hard place unfortunately.
Yeah - if it can go wrong it's gone wrong. Our mortgage is up for renewal next year. It's going to be brutal.
Those that were hoping for Truss over Sunak because it would might mean short term hurt, but in the medium term makes the Tories totally unelectable
I was hoping Truss over Sunak because Sunak imo pretty much guaranteed a return to austerity with all its consequences of cuts in education, health, welfare, transport, etc, etc, rising unemployment, all the misery it would cause, and also the extra deaths.
The Truss/Kwarteng high stake gamble of tax cuts and borrowing is frightening for obvious reasons but it still doesn't frighten me as much as austerity.
Sunak is a far better thatcherite than Truss - like Thatcher he would have increased taxation whilst cutting back on departmental spending, only increased costs due to mass unemployment and war caused government spending to increase under Thatcher.
I don't think I want to return to those dark Thatcher days of over 3 million unemployed. I have never thought that was much to differentiate between Truss and Sunak in terms of what was preferential, but I always thought that on balance Truss would be a better choice, I still do.
Our mortgage is up for renewal next year. It’s going to be brutal.
My mortgage is up for renewal in Feb 24. Between now and then every spare penny I've got will be paid into overpayments and reducing the term. Millions of others will be doing exactly the same, and the drop in consumer spending will create a recession in itself without even considering other factors like business failures, inflation and lack of confidence/reduction in investment.
Just remortgaging at the minute. Timed to perfection, eh?
Timed to perfection, eh?
Depends if they pull the deal. Halifax have already withdrawn all their fixed rate mortgages. I wouldn't count your chickens until you've signed the contracts. Hopefully you already have.
The Truss/Kwarteng high stake gamble of tax cuts and borrowing is frightening for obvious reasons but it still doesn’t frighten me as much as austerity.
You think there won't be more austerity under Truss?
If they won't back down on tax cuts, but want to show markets they can keep debt down, then the cuts to public services are going to be huge
Speak to a broker and see if they can get you another fixed rate now. You might have an early redemption fee to pay but I imagine it'll be worth it.
We were expecting a fee of about £1500 or so but the broker managed to get it binned off and got us on a new fixed rate.
I have never thought that was much to differentiate between Truss and Sunak in terms of what was preferential, but I always thought that on balance Truss would be a better choice, I still do.
I'd pragmatically take ideologically opposed competence over incompetence any day.
You think there won’t be more austerity under Truss?
If they won’t back down on tax cuts, but want to show markets they can keep debt down, then the cuts to public services are going to be huge
This!!!
She's a small government ideolog. I've worked for nearly 18 years in the public sector and 12 of that have been under austerity measures, I'm sick of it
@dazh No, just looking now. Current deal expires in Jan. Is an exotic beast too with part commercial on a holiday let/annexe we're developing. Basically funked.
