[Closed] Housing bubble?

POP!

Cool story, bro

Zoopla reckons our house has gone up 50k in the year we've been living there.

Erm, rightyho then.

Typical estate agents... If only we could convert estate agents' optimism into usable energy.

Just looked up the house we moved into last weekend. Zoopla thinks it's worth 30-50k more than we paid. Not sure if I should stop unpacking and put it back on the market!

Theoretically...

Zooplas way of working out is weird. Our neighbours paid £50k more than us two years before we bought. Both houses were in the same condition then are now improved to the same level as each other now.

So why does Zoopla value mine at +4k on my purchase price and his +10k on his?

Bad spreadsheet formula rules Zoopla. Need to use a better generator.

Oh and OP - cool story.

Zoopla guesstimates again.

It is very rare for houses near me to come onto the market. The last one was about 4 years ago - the only one to do so in the 20+ years we have been here. It is the other half of our house (a semi) but is smaller and was bought as a wreck by peeps from that London with more money than sense. They paid well over the odds and literally poured money into it (builders were on site for >12 months). Zoopla thinks their place has gone up about £30k in the last four years. Based on this, they have valued ours at a silly amount too....based on what?

Having said that, I'd expect the house to go at a premium now :wink:. Why? Cos we are sitting on top of the only 'hill' for miles around. There are one or two places that are a smidge higher but I reckon 2/3 of Suffolk will have gone if we get flooded out.

For anyone wanting to take on a massive hill climb, we are 290 feet above sea level! I need oxygen when I go upstairs. 🙄

Zoopla doesnt take into account property conditions, just some simple ruled based on the info it has to hand.

If only we could convert estate agents' optimism into usable energy.

easy, estate agent powered furnaces.

they wouldn't burn, they would just ooze and smoulder a bit

Isn;t it Zoopla that lets you 'amend' your own house to add random things in like conservatories, new kitchens, extra square feet etc. to pump up the price? Sister in law is having a ball on one of those kinda sites ramping up the 'value' of her house to a value she feels happier with even thoough I never reaised she'd had that new 20,000 square feet extension!

From what I understand it takes the last purchase price and the year it was sold and then multiplies by the postcode average loss/gain between the previous sale date and today.

So it means if you pay 20k more for your house than your neighbour, it will calculate that your house is worth more now than his.

Much better off looking at the Sold prices from the Land Registry records.

Much better off looking at the Sold prices from the Land Registry records.

Even that is missleading.

On our old postcode a house sold at the top of the market in 2007 for 70k more than anything else in the postcode. It was a 3 bed semi like every other house on the street but was maxed out with renovations etc. Even then it looks like the buyer massively overpaid. Then the next 6 or 7 houses to sell where wrecks and sold for well less than the previous average. So just looking at the land registry figures it looks like the crash was very pronounced and houses were going cheap. However house prices on the street actually held up very well and we sold in 2013 at a price that represented a modest growth in house prices from 2007 to then.

You need to know the history of the area for the land registry data to mean much. In theory this is where an estate agent should add value but...

defo a bubble. Just put my house on the market for a staggering amount more than we paid for it four years ago, and looking around the area there are few houses on the market, even those that are are stupidly priced, but offers near asking are being put in!! though it's all relative, you sell high, you buy high..

Id take zoopla with a whole cellar-full of salt....

I sold a property last month for £330k that it reckons is worth £430k. I bought it for £180k in 2001.

There's no doubt the market has picked up a lot in the past 6 months. Here in the overheated SE HTB isn't helping. Typically for 250-300K houses there's an increase of between 10 and 50K depending on which agent is marketing the house.
Some agents are taking the pee. Some vendors are. As always a house will only ever sell for what someone is willing to pay and with Carney talking low rates for years to come, this particular bubble I fear has only just begun and may never pop back to a decent size.

During the last credit crunch houses in the SE only fell back a little. They're back in full force in a strong market now - we're back to it being a sellers market and so prices are on their way up sharply.

I'm not convinced there will ever be a return to what was previously considered normal house prices (pre-browns reign). In fact, with Carney talking low rates over an extended period and raising the possibility that 5% BOE is a thing of the past I think it more likely than not prices will head upwards sharply (thanks for that Mr Carney).

YMMV and IMO etc of course

Edit - Just to add - Zoopla can be bollocks - talk to a few local EA's.

Just read an interesting article in the trade rags (financial stuff) that the MPC expected base rates to go up to 2.0% by 2016.

This may have an impact on house prices.

There again....it may just not happen.

Just looked at Zoopla - I guess it uses a fairly simple algorithm to estimate price. It values identical neighbouring houses near my parents one 75% more than the other - I think on most recent sale values and a general lack of information on property type which causes the lack of consistency.

More interesting is the price paid those on my road for similar houses to ours. Unbelievable compared with what we paid in 1999. Amazing what school catchment, good commuting links and supply constraint did the years prior to the crash.

I must be really screwed then as a house I bought last year for 106k Zoopla reckons is only worth 103!

I'm not convinced there will ever be a return to what was previously considered normal house prices (pre-browns reign).

Depends where you live, in Cambridge it seems there never was a dip.

I have no mortgage and have an house in London. Me Rich Too ! 😉

footflaps - Member
I'm not convinced there will ever be a return to what was previously considered normal house prices (pre-browns reign).
Depends where you live, in Cambridge it seems there never was a dip.

POSTED 1 DAY AGO # REPORT-POST

Exactly. And with HTB, fwd guidance and a return to 95% mortgages, I really don't hold out much hope. I doubt even an increase in supply will help because it is in no ones interest (who has money already in housing - gvt, banks, construction) for demand to meet supply and the prices to fall back.

My oppinion is that no one knows they are in a bubble until it bursts, this is why it becomes a bubble in the first place.

Sorry but I can't understand why there's this obsession with ever rising house prices to be honest - you'll only ever gain from it if you're a landlord/developer or you don't need to live in the house (or any house) any more.

Silly high prices are screwing over the aspirations of the younger generation currently renting, screwing the fluidity in the housing market and screwing the whole economy in general (as has been proved by the debt we're currently in as a nation, lack of disposable income by overstretched borrowers and the whole credit crunch thing).

We don't celebrate when the price of petrol goes up do we? Why should housing costs be any different?

I could rant for a long time on high house prices. It's poison to a country.

On a related note, I watched that thing on China's debt problem, despite it being fronted by Robert 'enunciation' Peston. An entirely plausible Chinese economist estimated that 10-20% of property in China was unoccupied and owned as an investment. Suddenly the word [i]bubble[/i] seems inadequate.

We don't celebrate when the price of petrol goes up do we? Why should housing costs be any different?

The voice of reason, unfortunately the "free market" needs to adjust, but the last Tory Govt. Did just that in the early 90's and it cost them the next three elections. It's why the "independent" bank of England hasn't allowed interest rates to rise to prevent another "property crash".

Biggest problem is the demographic for who votes, Govt. will screw young people into the ground for as long as their votes don't count.

more of everything for everyone!

the higher the price the more equity/liability you have, the more profit the banks rake in (especially when the rate goes back up) the more s**t everyone is in when the wheel turns full circle (apart from the money lenders)

Norway, one of the most expensive countries on earth has relatively low house prices compared to incomes. Therefore people are happy and prosperous.

The UK, one of the richest countries on earth has high house prices relative to wages but cheaper comodities. People do not feel prosperous.

However we are too far down the road on this. The only way out of a housing bubble is to increase supply (higher interest rates just price people out, lower interest rates just create price rises, pricing people out, it's a lose lose scenario). But increased supply would be very bad for the economy as it's so so reliant on house price inflation continuing to prevent a crash. So we are stuck in a catch 22 where we need to stop house price inflation or we will all feel very poor but we can't stop house price inflation as it's this that is preventing people from actually being poor (relatively).

So the only option is to fill your boots, ride the bubble but try to avoid getting caught when it pops.

Ours is apparently worth £80k more than what something much the same size in the same street sold for in October. Though I suspect they did take a hit on the price because they'd already moved before it sold.

We don't celebrate when the price of petrol goes up do we? Why should housing costs be any different?

Lol because petrol is a consumable, houses are not.

It'd be great if I could fill up my tank, keep it there for a few years and sell it on at a profit. But I can't.

molgrips - Member

We don't celebrate when the price of petrol goes up do we? Why should housing costs be any different?

Lol because petrol is a consumable, houses are not.

It'd be great if I could fill up my tank, keep it there for a few years and sell it on at a profit. But I can't.

Yes but unless you're significantly downsizing or upping sticks to a less desireable area you sell your house at a profit only to find out the house you're buying has also rocketed in value too - so where's the benefit, apart from to the banks who will be rubbing their hands at even more mortgage interest coming their way?

I don't think house prices can rise much further, in the South East it's certainly difficult to live in your own house if you're single. And while that may be a trade off people living in London are prepared to make, I really don't see people looking at Slough and thinking "I really want to live in a bedsit here, the culture more than makes up for it". You can offer them a 95% Help to Buy mortgage in the short term, but soon the repayments on those will be unsustainable too, just as finding the deposit is difficult now.

So the young people who move to London or the SE at 20 to make a career for themselves then move out at 30, will stop coming.

We don't celebrate when the price of petrol goes up do we? Why should housing costs be any different?

Kind of true if everyone rented or had lifetime* mortgages. Petrol is consumed, for the most part houses are there when you buy them, and still the same when you sell them. So as long as you can afford them you don't lose money (except to the bank in interest). You can't buy the petrol, use it, sell it and buy some diesel. Whereas you can use a house like that.

*I dont know the real term, but in Japan prices are now so high that you can get an interest only mortgage for life, then your children have to pay up or sell the house. I suppose the idea is that in your lifetime the inflation should reduce the debt. So when your kids come to decide the house will be cheeper than buying one on the open market.

And of course, there are no longer any long strikes, because we can't afford not to pay our inflated mortgages.

To paraphrase Verbal from the usual suspects "The greatest trick Thatcher ever pulled was convincing the public that owning your own home would give you freedom."

We've just exchanged for the sale of our flat & purchase of a house in London.We had the offer accepted in November , if the house were to go back on the market I doubt we could afford it.
Two estate agents reckon they've gone up 25k!!!!in 3 months.
It really is mental & terrifying.

Another reason I would be happy to emigrate. Small island, relatively stable economy and government, lots of people wanting to live and invest here and suddenly we can not afford to live in a half decent area in a half decent size home.

Interesting how in many countries in Europe a good number of people are happy to rent for life, where as here I would kind of feel I am chucking money into the landlord's pocket.

Probably a good argument for buying a T5 camper and becoming a hippy, living off grid.

A friend emmigrated two years ago to France, but let their house in Cambridge out as they had a fixed mortgage with a 5 yr tie in. They just sold it last month and made over £150k profit in 5 years!

I can't see how the recent jump has been good for anyone - in London house prices are now so high that even on a decent income there's almost nothing affordable.
My 2-bed flat that I rent in SE London went for £300k a couple of months ago, and that's leasehold with £190pcm service charge on top. I've given up on living in a London postcode and moving further out...

If even the wealthy can't afford to buy, then surely it's got to come shuddering to a halt? No market without buyers, surely?

easy credit has returned hasnt it.

ive got friends that have just secured a house twice the value of ours on a 5% deposit 20% government loan

they earn similar to me and the mrs - we "could" have that same house - I wouldnt be able to sleep at night. But it looks like a logical idea to some - folks just look at the monthly and think we can pay that.

Interest rates have to rise and im fair certain that even 1% will see the market flooded with folk who need to downsize quickly.

will price out the bottom end of the market - but should allow folk who live within their means to sell their wee house for a decent price and get something bigger.

I guess in a few years; the average house price will be £7.9 Billion, and the average wage will be about £20,000. At which point everyone will have to rent (apart from landlords). But as rent cost will be linked to property value, everyone will have to claim housing benefit to pay their 80,000 pcm rent. Which will certainly turn the tables on the Daily Mail 'Benefits Scroungers' hate mob 😀

[quote=trail_rat ]easy credit has returned hasnt it.

Well it does appear that they think one of the solutions to the problem caused by too much easy credit is to offer even more easy credit 👿

Re London, as many have said on here before, it really is a world and law unto itself. The supply is there, the demand is there AND the affordability is there. That's just the way it is.

Meanwhile, down here in the slightly more real world of Surrey, homes that aren't selling are being put back on the market for more than they weren't selling for. A few are dropping, perhaps because the vendors are desperate to sell, but others are literally going up and up even with no takers. Bonkers.