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The riots will be started by Brexies when they realise that the promised sunlight uplands aren’t quite as was promised.
Am I allowed to miss THM and Jambalaya even though I often disagreed with them?
If you like. About the best thing you can say about both was that they provoked discourse.
Jamba was OK in that he could make a coherent argument with some basis. THM..................
tj, my longer answer got lost somewhere, but to summarise
business for scotland = suppressed giggling
dispute about GERS = no there isn't. Not from anyone who understands economics/statistics. All economic statistics are estimates. but these are statistically verifiable figures with error bars and everything.
And they are accepted by nicola sturgeon (whose stats department produce the figures).
If they were easy to disprove with an opinion piece in a newspaper or on a website, they why oh why doesn't she just do it, and just MAKE the economic case for an independent Scotland in black and white?
Maybe you should call her and clue her up?
At the very least ask yourself why these hidden facts about scotlands economy are hidden away on nationalist conspiracy websites and newspaper columns, and not the subject of a Scottish Government enquiry.
Its hard to take you seriously when you come onto a thread about europe and brexit and then spout economic rubbish that belongs on the side of a bus.
If your main argument (and I think we both know it ALWAYS comes back to economics no matter where you start) relies on obfuscation and sewing FUD about the facts, you're no better then the brexiters and their unicorns.
Please continue sewing fear uncertainty and doubt but at least admit to yourself the playbook you're reading from.
(None of this implies that scotland might or might not be an "economic powerhouse" after independence by however many years. But GERS is the best indication of where we would start. And we wouldn't start richer, or the same, but poorer, and on a scale greater than brexit).
tjagain
Member
Jamba was OK in that he could make a coherent argument with some basis. THM
im not sure thats correct
pre-ref a large part of this thread was THM pointing out that jamba was making stuff up to support his arguments
after the ref i think THM struggled with is natural toryness & the shambles of May & the brexiteers handling of the farce
Dammit .. I found my original reply. I'll bung it here for completeness.
tj,
GERS are estimates.
But so are ALL economic figures.
They are the best available and if there was any obvious omission that could be added in to make it look like scotland could afford to support itself in the manner to which it has become accustomed, then you have to explain why nicola and her stats department are hiding it from us all?
To suggest that the deficit is made up (or down) in some way to piss off the SNP, by the SNP, is just fatuous.
You don't give the impression of someone who is easily led or deceived, so why are you defending and perpetuating busworthy economic lies?
I'm not saying GERS is 100% accurate, but it is derived by people who know about statistical error bars
To look at it another way, here is the table I put up there reordered from surplus to deficit.
Net fiscal balance per head, 2016-17 (in £s)
London -3,697
SE England -2,150
East of England -895
England 158
SW England 975
East Midlands 1,650
Yorkshire and the Humber 2,199
West Midlands 2,296
Scotland 2,651
NW England 2,684
NE England 3,718
Wales 4,251
N Ireland 5,014
UK 695
If Scotlands deficit is a lie, then what about the East Midlands? Wales? Northern Ireland? Are they all secret economic powerhouses as well?
How deep does this rabbit hole go?
What happens to Boris when the promised sunlit uplands turn out to be a swampy creek? How long can the papers continue to spin the "it's the EU / Remoaners / rest of the world" line?
We "achieve" Brexit by dint of some political stunts involving elections around the time of the Leave date and then we end up with a hung parliament, absolutely no clear direction anywhere and a country that's split to pieces - do Boris and co simply gather their millions and **** off somewhere quiet for a few decades like Cameron seems to have done?
We can only hope.
We can only hope.
That's the last thing I'm hoping for. I want them to suffer, not make millions from it. I want Brexit shown up for the lies and spin that it actually is and for everyone responsible (from Boris, Nigel, etc right down to the newspaper editors that enabled it all) to be subjected to suitably medieval torture rituals, paraded through the streets and then hung.
I think ticket sales would be quite good - might offset some of the deficit.
The only way they'll suffer is if we manage to get boris and his entire cabel of erg nutters into parliament on bonfire night and re-enact the gunpowder plot, but this time do the job right.
I live near a hospital and am on friendly terms with the neighbours near here, who all work at the hospital. This week a fourth family has returned or emigrated to another part of Europe. All since easter.
Eat the pudding
Lots of stuff included in the gers figures that would not be a part of an independent scotlands costs Englands nuclear weapons programme Then there is all the cost of westminster and whitehall - again some of that cost is in GERS and while some of that will be a cost to an independent scotland most of it will not. Englands nuclear power white elephants.
Then there is the massive subsidy from the UK taxpayer to londons transport - another cost on GERS gone.
That is multiple billions per year.
Then there is the under reporting of scots economic activity - again most agree.Sorry dude but GERs is flawed for this comparison and anyway is damning for the UK as why is scotland with all its advantages an economic basket case?
The figures are accurate for economic estimates - but a significant amount of the costs included would no longer be paid by an independent Scotland
Remeber Hammond stated that England would be hit finacially massivly if scotland became independent
Want more discussion on GERs - there is loads out there from respected economists 😉
Again pointless because its not a debate that will change your mind
Edit - remember I am a pragmatic supporter of independence - not an ideological one. Never voted SNP in my life. Having read as much as I can all over the place around the economics I am certain that an independent scotland will give me a higher standard of living - both financial and in social policy ways.
Again pointless because its not a debate that will change your mind
It won't if you don't bother giving solid evidence. Blaming someone else for not believing your argument when it's unsubstantiated is Brexit levels of debating skill.
Molgrips - I can provide lots of debate around GERs figures from a variety of respected economists. However its just pointless to do so given that eat thinks they are gospel but I think they are gross estimates and include a lot of things an independent scotland would not have to pay. Its just a waste of my time
Want some links?
Here is one from an english economist. This sets out just how vague they really are.
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/15/more-on-why-gers-might-properly-be-called-crap-data/
And another from the same chap
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/08/25/gers-is-this-why-it-always-says-the-scottish-deficit-is-so-large/comment-page-1/
Then as above there is a lot of spending included - multiple billions - that an independent scotland would not have - nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Westminster and whitehall, etc etc
Scotland that was indeopendent tomorrow would be running a deficit - large but nothing like as large as the unionists try to claim. Perfectly sustainable and given the capacity for growth I have no issue with it
Plenty more but I am not going to waste time trying to convince someone who does not want to be nor drift this thread any further. I only dip in and out of anything political here due to how frustrating it all becomes
molgrips the other point is that if the union is so beneficial to scotland then why is scots gdp growth so poor? Take Denmark - a country without many of scotlands advantages and most of its disadvantages. 40 years ago danish gdp per capita was a lot lower than scotlands. Now its a lot higher - and we have had all the oil.
so does scotland benefit from the unuion economically? - the evidence to me says no
short term pain for long term gain - what we have to contribute to the nuclear weapons we don't want or need would pay for dualling the A9 every year! Now that would bring big economic benefits to scotland - nukes do not
I think they are gross estimates and include a lot of things an independent scotland would not have to pay.
So you're saying you know best, right?
Want some links?
Anyone can cherry pick links. The issue is here one of confirmation bias. There are likely as many articles claiming Scotland's surplus as its deficit. You pick the ones that you think are right, and you think they are right because you are convinced you are right, so all you see is quality articles that confirm your view. Articles that don't are not considered quality.
No - I am saying I have read widely on it from all sides and then make my mind up on the evidence. I have little truck for most of crap poored out by both sides. You read widely, you look at thre quaility of the data and the analysis, you look at the credentials and then you make your mind up. It is not confirmation bias - remamber I am not an ideological indepoendence supporter. Have a read of those two links. English acedemic economist. It explains a lot of the issues with GERS
finally - do you know how GERS came about? It was designed by Lang when he was secretary of state to spike the guns of the snp
A leaked memo from Ian Lang to John Major said
“I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.”
Kimbers - I have said for a long time what the UK needs is a progressive ( anti tory) front foir a single election on a platform of constitutional reform and now anti brexit. A single election would do it if all parties would join. We would never have another tory government if we had a decent system of PR
Labour simply will not play ball - especially with the SNP.
Swinson has ruled out an electoral pact with the SNP because they are separatists. Just no one tell her about PC, OK?
Its hard to take you seriously when you come onto a thread about europe and brexit and then spout economic rubbish that belongs on the side of a bus.
+1.....
The only way they’ll suffer is if we manage to get boris and his entire cabel of erg nutters into parliament on bonfire night and re-enact the gunpowder plot, but this time do the job right.
No need to blow up parliament.... Quite a nice building. Just need to find out where the erg bunch meet up or, even better, just take them out one by one.
Glorious development. The ministry of fake news will be headed up by the man who doesn't believe in experts.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1160284047446347778?s=19
.
Came across this and posted it here for the benefit of those who don't understand why Priti Patel's comments about starving the Irish are so offensive.
It's mind boggling that a govt could do that to it's own people.
The Mass Graves of Ireland
Ireland starved because its food, from 40 to 70 shiploads per day, was removed at gunpoint by 12,000 British constables reinforced by the British militia, battleships, excise vessels, Coast Guard and by 200,000 British soldiers (100,000 at any given moment) The attached map shows the never-before-published names and locations in Ireland of the food removal regiments
Thus, Britain seized from Ireland's producers tens of millions of head of livestock; tens of millions of tons of flour, grains, meat, poultry & dairy products; enough to sustain 18 million persons
The Food Removal
From Cork harbor on one day in 1847 2 the AJAX steamed for England with 1,514 firkins of butter, 102 casks of pork, 44 hogsheads of whiskey, 844 sacks of oats, 247 sacks of wheat, 106 bales of bacon, 13 casks of hams, 145 casks of porter, 12 sacks of fodder, 28 bales of feathers, 8 sacks of lard, 296 boxes of eggs, 30 head of cattle, 90 pigs, 220 lambs, 34 calves and 69 miscellaneous packages.
On November 14, 1848 3, sailed, from Cork harbor alone: 147 bales of bacon, 120 casks and 135 barrels of pork, 5 casks of hams, 149 casks of miscellaneous provisions (foodstuff); 1,996 sacks & 950 barrels of oats; 300 bags of flour; 300 head of cattle; 239 sheep; 9,398 firkins of butter; 542 boxes of eggs.
On July 28, 1848 4; a typical day's food shipments from only the following four ports: from Limerick: the ANN, JOHN GUISE and MESSENGER for London; the PELTON CLINTON for Liverpool; and the CITY OF LIMERICK, BRITISH QUEEN, and CAMBRIAN MAID for Glasgow. This one-day removal of Limerick's food was of 863 firkins of butter; 212 firkins, 1,198 casks and 200 kegs of lard, 87 casks of ham; 267 bales of bacon; 52 barrels of pork; 45 tons and 628 barrels of flour; 4,975 barrels of oats and 1,000 barrels of barley.
From Kilrush: the ELLEN for Bristol; the CHARLES G. FRYER and MARY ELLIOTT for London. This one-day removal was of 550 tons of County Clare's oats and 15 tons of its barley.
From Tralee: the JOHN ST. BARBE, CLAUDIA and QUEEN for London; the SPOKESMAN for Liverpool. This one-day removal was of 711 tons of Kerry's oats and 118 tons of its barley.
From Galway: the MARY, VICTORIA, and DILIGENCE for London; the SWAN and UNION for Limerick (probably for transshipment to England). This one-day removal was of 60 sacks of Co. Galway's flour; 30 sacks and 292 tons of its oatmeal; 294 tons of its oats; and 140 tons of its miscellaneous provisions (foodstuffs). British soldiers forcibly removed it from its starving Limerick, Clare, Kerry and Galway producers.
In Belmullet, Co. Mayo the mission of 151 soldiers 5 of the 49th Regiment, in addition to escorting livestock and crops to the port for export, was to guard a few tons of stored meal from the hands of the starving; its population falling from 237 to 105 between 1841 and 1851. Belmullet also lost its source of fish in January, 1849, when Britain's Coast Guard arrested its fleet of enterprising fishermen ten miles at sea in the act of off-loading flour from a passing ship. They were sentenced to prison and their currachs were confiscated.
The Waterford Harbor British army commissariat officer wrote to British Treasury Chief Charles Trevelyan on April 24, 1846; "The barges leave Clonmel once a week for this place, with the export supplies under convoy which, last Tuesday, consisted of 2 guns, 50 cavalry, and 80 infantry escorting them on the banks of the Suir as far as Carrick." While its people starved, the Clonmel district exported annually, along with its other farm produce, approximately 60,000 pigs in the form of cured pork.
Dominic steps out of the wings and takes the spotlight as a major player... Applause! Applause!
Then finds that the spot light is actually searchlight.
Will he make it to the end of the play or will "deus ex machina" strike him down? My money is on the old Gods doin' for him.
Will he make it to the end of the play or will “deus ex machina” strike him down? My money is on the old Gods doin’ for him.
He is apparently only there to get Brexit over the line. Postponed an operation to take up the role until the week after Brexit, and will decide if he wants to come back afterwards.
The irony of an unelected bureaucrat like Cummings being the brexiteers main hope
tj,
Still no explanation of why;
a) nicola is covering up the "truth"?
Or
b) the SNP report on "scotlands future" failed to mention any of the 12 dimensional economic factoids you've brought up.
I wrote more, but I've deleted it and I'm disengaging on this.
Its off topic and the irony of you spreading and defending economic FUD in a thread about brexit is making my head hurt.
PS I see the reverend from bath is starting up a full on "populist and anti-political" independence party to challenge the SNP and get in touch with the "vast majority" of scots.
He sounds like just the sort of stable genius we've all been looking for.
I am not spreading false information! You simply have made your mind up and refuse to listen to what I wrote. Fingers in ears! I have clearly explained the issues with GERs figures and given links to independent analysis
I quite agree about disengaging however - politics threads on here are simply people shouting with fingers in their ears
Actually I will just state the case again very simply
Gers figures are a very rough approximation - reliability is poor. Good for comparison, poor for actual numbers
Gers incudes costs that would not come to scotland in the event of independence such as a billion a year for nuclear weapons, such as a share of london transport subsidy, such as the cost of westminster and whitehall etc etc
GERs also underestimates income - head office effect and a few others
An independent Scotland would have a deficit - but smaller than GERS suggests
GERs methodology is a political construct designed to do this
I gave links to non scots economics acedemic discussing this - did you read it?
I also explained why The scottish Government adopted this measure
OK - lets move on!
In discussions with a supplier this morning - 'we are quoting in Euros; the pound is too weak to quote in GBP'
So we may be leaving the EU, but we are going to start having to use the Euro??!!
I see the reverend from bath is starting up a full on “populist and anti-political” independence party to challenge the SNP
Wrong!
scotroutes
Member
I see the reverend from bath is starting up a full on “populist and anti-political” independence party to challenge the SNPWrong
Indeed. An absolute shocking report from the BBC on this. He is not challenging the SNP at all. He's going after list seats to take them from the tories and Labour to hopefully create an overwhelming indy majority in holyrood. He's clearly explained this on his site. The BBC really are scum
jeebus tj,
Still no explanation of why nicola is silent?
In other news, even the nat onal says that the cost of trident to scotland is 180million/year (not "a billion a year").
If you cant be arsed googling that when the information is freely available then where are your other "figures" coming from.
London transport costs (crossrail etc) are not included in the figures for scotland and we pay nothing towards anything that does not have a positive effect on the scottish economy. Also freely available information.
I've read your "independent analysis". It brings this to mind;
'The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.' - Alberto Brandolini
Its been years since 2014 and still people believe there is "export duty" on whiskey, oil in the Clyde, and that a few articles in a newspaper can refute government statistics produced by the scottish government.
You can keep sewing FUD (and claim you aren't) but the basic question you have to answer (which you haven't even touched on for some reason) is the simple one at the top of this comment.
I did explain why the scots government uses the GERs figures. Twice. Now 3 times
1) - they understand what that actually represent which is not what you think
2) it was used as a weapon to attack the SNP - so the best way to stop that - adopt it.
You have your beliefs. I do not know how much reading around the toipic you have done but I know how much I have done. Can yo actually refute that link? Or merely call it out because it does not fit your position.
I can find plenty of other acedemic analysis that shows the flaws in GERS. I Understand what they are and what they actually show.
This is fun - Farage criticising Royal family - well mainly the one who had the audacity to marry someone with a different skin tone... Nothing to see at all.
Hope that is raising the blood pressure of a few quitlings. Anti-royal comments from St Farage - how confusing.
Shows his racism as well
Eat the pudding - do you not realise that the figures come from england a lot of them?
Have a read of the methodology
https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/Methodology/detrev2018
Hope that is raising the blood pressure of a few quitlings. Anti-royal comments from St Farage – how confusing.
You think they don't actually agree with him?
Shows his racism as well
Bannon planning in full effect. Each step is towards open embracement of racists to gain and keep power. This is not a misstep, it’s deliberate. Slowly, slowly, step by step, wink by wink… ‘till it can become open.
This is fun – Farage criticising Royal family – well mainly the one who had the audacity to marry someone with a different skin tone… Nothing to see at all.
Hope that is raising the blood pressure of a few quitlings. Anti-royal comments from St Farage – how confusing.
as mentioned on twitter - Farage only liked him when he used to wear Nazi uniforms....
I know that this is very much the intention, but this stunt by the Government is very Brexkip, and will have the people in the civil service that have to get things done and deal with other countries pulling out what’s left of their hair…
This is, I hesitate to use the word clever, cunning perhaps? BJ says the EU wont budge till after parlimentary battle - i.e. if you have no confidence in me, thats what the EU want.. so you should give me the benefit of the doubt (or that's my reading of it anyway)
The U.K. is presently like the gobby nobhead in the school classroom, who’s disruptive behaviour is stopping everyone else for getting anything done, and everyone just wants to be expelled.
I bet the rest of the E.U. can’t wait to see the back of us
Anyone else think that the obvious policy is to try to ensure that no further extension is offered, regardless of circumstances?