Combination really. Sales of diesel cars to private buyers was about lower VED, promised higher mpg, preferable power/torque delivery for many people (who wouldn't rev out a petrol car past 4000rpm), and higher residual values on finance that often made them cheaper to own for 3/4 years even if the list price was higher.
The "no brainer" economic effect is being felt in the cheaper end of the secondhand EV market, prices have been steady or rising for the last year or more. People are catching on that a cheap Zoe (even with the battery rental) or Leaf makes a lot of sense as a second car for commuting or running the kids about, they're really pleasant to drive, heat themselves up in the morning (no scraping ice off) and cost next to nothing to run.
A lot of the Diesel take up was down to availability. When my old man went to buy his Octavia a few years ago he wanted a petrol and was told it would be around 12 months wait and no, they didn't have one to test drive. Same with the Superb and the Yeti. Diesel? 2 months sir for your spec or you can take anyone of these 6 pre-reg cars off the forecourt now.
This was driven mainly by govt policy on tax which is why the car manufacturers got so pissed when the govt U turned so abruptly 2 years ago and started pushing petrol/electric hybrid for fleet use
The “no brainer” economic effect is being felt in the cheaper end of the secondhand EV market, prices have been steady or rising for the last year or more. People are catching on that a cheap Zoe (even with the battery rental) or Leaf makes a lot of sense as a second car for commuting or running the kids about, they’re really pleasant to drive, heat themselves up in the morning (no scraping ice off) and cost next to nothing to run.
^^This^^
I want to get a Zoe/i3/similar (possibly used) because I think it would be suit a good 85%+ of our family's motoring (short range journeys with 2-4 passengers) and the diesel lump we're currently running could be kept rather than scrapped to cover the other 15% where we do longer motorway journeys with luggage, we already own the thing and it would be worthless for trade in...
We're ideal candidates for a small leccy car. We've got a 2 garage/driveway with power so overnight charging would be easy, the missus has an Auto only licence anyway and dislikes driving the current big MPV because it's "too big"...
So who do you think is blocking the idea of getting a small EV? Yup er-indoors, someone told her they run out of leccy juice after ten yards and she claims it would cost too much (rather than running an aging diesel barge for short, DPF clogging, journeys)...
The main problem at present with smaller EVs is that if I want to get round her cost concerns I need to demonstrate it can be done cheaper but both PCP and Lease deals seem to work out silly expensive per month when compared with buying a "Traditional" ICE saloon or hatchback...
So buying a used EV? They're getting on for double the price of the ICE equivalent due to growing demand (from muppets like me) and relatively low supply. And thus her assertion that its going to be too costly is bourne out... Apart from the looming bill next time we MOT the current motor
I need to demonstrate it can be done cheaper but both PCP and Lease deals seem to work out silly expensive per month when compared with buying a “Traditional” ICE saloon or hatchback…
Which was part of the reason i asked, how does lease/repayments/etc + VED + fuel compare to Lease/repayments/etc + electricity. How does insurance compare?
If an e/v costs more but the running costs are lower it might be a goer.
So who do you think is blocking the idea of getting a small EV? Yup er-indoors, someone told her they run out of leccy juice after ten yards and she claims it would cost too much (rather than running an aging diesel barge for short, DPF clogging, journeys)…
My wife did the same - I bought one anyway. She now loves it an wouldn't dream of changing back.
The main problem at present with smaller EVs is that if I want to get round her cost concerns I need to demonstrate it can be done cheaper but both PCP and Lease deals seem to work out silly expensive per month when compared with buying a “Traditional” ICE saloon or hatchback…
Buy one that's 15m old on a long term PCP through a separate finance company. My rate was 4.8%.
When I factor in fuel, tax, servicing, depreciation, etc. I recon my electric car costs me about £70 per month on top of what I was paying for a 7 year old fiat Panda.
Don’t forget the i3 has inbuilt heating technology..
Cookeaa
She might be right, at the moment. This is worth watching at your leisure, he talks sense and is eloquent. What he doesn't mention is the current bottleneck in battery supply is compounding things, the expectation is that this will be solved as the big battery manufacturers ramp up now that everyone incl car manufacturers are accepting that EV is the future.
Thankfully the prevailing winds blow crap back over the city, where they think they are now clean. All poncing around in there fake green cars.
They're not green, but are certainly less brown. The national grid is already 30% renewable.
For those complaining about power coming from power stations - The thermal efficiency of a modern power station is ~50%. A diesel car is about 30-35%. Transmission losses are around 2%, so at worst it's 13% more efficient. In reality it's more like 20-25% A power station produces all of it's emissions in a controlled way and can benefit from carbon capture and gas re-circulation. Cars can't. A power station is kept in peak mechanical condition, cars aren't. Powerstations are kept operating (where possible) at maximum efficiency and temperature. Cars aren't. As we transition to more renewable sources of power, demand on the stations will drop, but the emissions from your car will remain constant.
As for lithium mining, well, for one, most of it isn't actually mined, it's desiccated. also 85-90% of a lithium battery pack can be recovered and re-used, it's just not widely done at the moment, but will be. Cobalt, Nickel and Neodinium are more problematic due to rarity or geopolitical location.
As for lithium mining, well, for one, most of it isn’t actually mined, it’s desiccated. also 85-90% of a lithium battery pack can be recovered and re-used, it’s just not widely done at the moment, but will be. Cobalt, Nickel and Neodinium are more problematic due to rarity or geopolitical location.
Thats ok, all the mining is being done in other parts of the world such as Australia and Argentina. They’ve got bucket loads of the stuff and small population so they can mine the heck out of the country(ies) It’s someone else’s problem.
#modernworldthinking
Try reading and perhaps even reading-up before commenting, bikebouy.
A diesel car is about 30-35%.
At its absolute peak, which it won't be the vast majority of the time...
A while back there were some headlines about "electric cars actually more polluting than petrol/diesel cars", but looking further the actual study said that running a massive Tesla in a location powered entirely by coal was slightly dirtier than running a tiny ICE runabout.
Running a normal sized EV in the UK with a much lower carbon grid releases far less CO2.
Try reading and perhaps even reading-up before commenting, bikebouy.
He's doing his normal toll act just ignore him.
If there was an electric Octavia at the sameish price as the diesel one I would have got the electric one.
As has been illustrated by this and countless other threads, not to mention past behavior there won't be any serious EV take up by either manufacturers or consumers until there is no other choice. Legislation dictates most peoples action apart from a few outliers. This is starting to happen and will gather speed over the next few years until even the nay sayers will be wizzing around in EV's whether they like it or not.
But clearly, as many have pointed out - this will not in itself be a solution to air pollution though it should reduce nox in urban areas (including those area's with power stations as there will be less diesel transport driving in and out).
It would be nice to think that a sustained move over to EV would be accompanied by a joined up policy on greener energy creation and creative thinking on car ownership v hire etc, unnecessary commuting (more working from home) and alternative transport infrastructure (like cycle lanes!!!!!) . Sadly, looking at the way those in power and leaders are behaving all over the world, i suspect we are far far away from this and will possibly never get there before we create Armageddon.
Shame really as we are so close.
Average mileage equates to roughly 10kWh per day. Most cars parked up for 20 hours or so per day and at least 3 days average mileage in the vast majority or EV’s “tanks”.
For general use fast chargers are simply unnecessary, and installing the infrastructure and storage/generation to facilitate fast charging is ridiculously expensive.
Most in the electricity industry are expecting 85-95% of charging (possibly more) to happen at home, office, car parks etc at slowish rates. 500W is probably a bit mean but 2-3kW should do it - cheap and achievable.
400kW is technically achievable and has its place at motorway services etc, but not sensible for widespread deployment.
PS - you’re welcome to come and see me speak at EV conferences and the like.
Try reading and perhaps even reading-up before commenting, bikebouy.
He’s doing his normal toll act just ignore him.
Oh, get you and your tight pants.
Average mileage in 2015 was 7900miles or 12640km or 34.6 km/day. My Zoé has averaged 12.8kWh/100km over the last two years so that's 4.4kWh/day.
I think your 10kWh per day is extremely pesimistic and suggest you change the content of your speeches, igm.
Any other regular STW EV owners with figures for igm?
I have "2-3kW" at home and it's about 20 hours if I get home battery nearly empty, too slow, so if I want to go out the next day I plug it in on the (very) local 15kW public charger. For home charging 5kW would get cars back on the road after an overnight charge and as far as I'm concerned 22kW should be the minimum for public chargers.
Really, you still subscribe to the idea that you own what you drive, for the exceptions rather than the rule can you hire?Pick a vehicle more suitable and then own something more useful for every day? It’s a model that is catching on and I’d say will soon take off.
There's people over on that other thread who would rather jack their job in , than share a PC with their bosses kids. Imagine if they had to use a car that someone else had access to 😉 😂😂
Had a leccy car for 2.5 yrs.
You can get grants to install a charging point but one of the conditions is that you have off road parking.
In the 2.5yrs I’ve had the car I’ve never once used a public charge point (I have used a National Trust one)
Leccy cars drive so much nicer than petrol or diesel.
Unfortunately the initial purchase cost is still high compared to ‘normal cars’
I got an email from Ford today announcing their new range of 'electric' vehicles & I checked out the Kuga (for caravan towing duties about 10-15 times a year mainly), on electric only Ford claim It'll do a staggering 31 miles (thirty one miles)
What is the point of that?
It wouldn't even get me to work & back on leccy only.
Here in Copenhagen most people live in tall blocks of flats and there's loads of electric vehicles and on street charging points. It's just normal and is what you get if you put effort into doing it rather than coming up with reasons not to do it. The UK is becoming a very backwards backwater.
I checked out the Kuga (for caravan towing duties about 10-15 times a year mainly), on electric only Ford claim It’ll do a staggering 31 miles (thirty one miles)
What is the point of that?
Tax avoidance? If they took out the engine and fuel tank it would probably go a lot further (assuming from your description it's electric and petrol)
rather than coming up with reasons not to do it. The UK is becoming a very backwards backwater.
We are working hard on Bad News engines instead.
Any other regular STW EV owners with figures for igm?
Well, when I get a home charger it'll be 7kwh, not the piddling 2-3kwh that igm suggests will be adequate for everyone. For starters the current Octopus Go tariff is 5ppkwh between 12.30am and 4.30am so just a 4hr window to juice the car. @ 3kwh charging, that's 12kwh of juice in the battery over 4 hrs. It's just enough, but what's the point of just enough when you can easily leave home with a fuller charge every day @7kwh. Also, quoting igm 'cheap and achievable', 7kwh home chargers are pretty much the same price as 3kwh chargers, so it's a no brainer IMO and the average electric shower pulls 9kwh, so a 7kwh charger is completely within household capacity and 'achievable' as igm puts it.
It’s just normal and is what you get if you put effort into doing it rather than coming up with reasons not to do it.
TESTIFY.
We get around 7.5km/kWh from our i3, less if it’s dark/cold.
We have a 7kw charger at home which takes about 4 hours to get the car to 80%.
On holiday in Cornwall, we used a standard 3 pin charger on a 40m extension which took about 12h to charger the car from 3%.
A 50kW CCS charger will get us from 10% to 90% in 30m.
esselgruntfuttock
Member
I got an email from Ford today announcing their new range of ‘electric’ vehicles & I checked out the Kuga (for caravan towing duties about 10-15 times a year mainly), on electric only Ford claim It’ll do a staggering 31 miles (thirty one miles)
What is the point of that?
It wouldn’t even get me to work & back on leccy only.
I'm going to assume that's Hybrid or PHEV, not electric. Ford don't have any electric cars in the UK and haven't announced any, to my knowledge.
he talks sense and is eloquent.
Sense yes, but eloquent? He took over a quarter of an hour of repetitive monologue to reach pretty much the same conclusions I already had in a couple of paragraphs...
And ultimately his main point, that all the better, faster, longer range (and pricier) options are over a year away, kinda misses the point for me a bit. I just want small and cheap, an ~80 mile range "old" model zoe would do the job nicely, trouble is they're holding their value a 2014 24kwh zoe is still ~£7k plus monthly battery leasing, its just the wrong side "cheap" to convince the boss even though the actual leccy will be a pittance...
He mentioned a new zoe coming out in 2020, does anyone know if the newer battery tech might be backwards compatible? I still can't decide if the whole battery leasing/replacement thing is actually a strength or weakness for the zoe...
Edukator - I’ll take pessimistic, but maybe not the extremely.
Last time I checked average mileage it was a little higher than your figure, and while I fully believe your 5m/kWh figure, across a basket of cars in UK conditions we’re working on 3 to 4 and really 3.
So in rough terms, 8500-9000 annual miles at 3m/kWh means around 3000kWh across 365 days or a slightly pessimistic 10kWh per day.
But you need to work on a pessimistic number when you’re looking at national infrastructure.
But if you are doing 4.4kWh/day then if you have the possibility of plugging in daily both at home and where you are going (and that needs to be the goal) a 500W charger would be overkill.
We need to not consider EVs are ICE cars that have motors and batteries instead of engines and tanks.
Yes, we could do that, but it would be expensive and wasteful in the fullness of time.
The new Zoé gets the same 41kWh battery as the current model AFAIK. A few owners in France have been given 41kWh batteries when their 23kWh batteries have dropped below limits so they are definitely compatible. There should be a buy outright option on the new Zoé which will be worth it if you expect to do a high milage in a short time. If you expect to do a low mileage in a long time the lease model makes financial sense, takes the worry out of ownership and helps resale prices.
Banana
Charger size and cost - it’s not just the charger it’s the infrastructure upstream needed to support it.
One of the senior guys at Nissan got a home charger last year and I was joking with him about how many tens of kilowatts it was (he used to sell V8 cars). Answer 3kW. Because he’d worked that was the optimal size.
As for octopus. Yes, I’ve spoken with them. Let’s say they have a great business model for a few years, but that model have limited longevity beyond that. They disagree with me of course.
Your comment on 9kW showers is misleading, by the way, as you need to consider ADMD and the effects of charging or showers upon it. (For info , the ADMD of a 7kW charger is circa 1.7kW, but an entire house including the shower, which peaks at say 15kW, is only 1 to 2kW) Your house supply will be circa 18kW depending on where you live, but if all your neighbours take 3kW simultaneously the mains will melt.
but if all your neighbours take 3kW simultaneously the mains will melt.
lol, they already do.The grid in many areas was sized for electric heating and what with better insulation, LEDs, heat pumps with COPs of better than 1... the grid had plenty of reserve capacity. Especially at night which is when people wil plug in their cars to benefit from night tarifs.
My house supply is limited to 6kW. Voluntarily because the standing charge is cheaper that way. If Madame can learn not to turn everything on at the smae time anybody can.
The stress on the grid is and always will be early morning and early evening as it's always been. I used to have to sample generation water and used to sit and watch the frequency counter in a hydro station so I know exactly when people turn the kettle, toaster and electric shower on.
Edukator - I’ve spent 15 years design the grid and managing the folk who designing the grid. Trust me, I’m not entirely dim in this area.
So quit making dumb comments which demonstrate a high level of ignorance, igm.
Are you going to continue to lie to your public with 10kW a day for electric cars when you have real world experience on this thread to demonstrate half that at 2015 UK average mileage. It's like claming the average ICE car does 18mpg in real use conditions when STW contribuotrs often claim better than double that. And do you still claim your neighbours drawing 3kW each will melt the grip.
If you want to be taken seriously get serious and stop posting anti-EV bollocks.
I’m pro-EV Edukator.
And I’m genuinely impressed with your mileage. You are getting far more than most. We have big old datasets an EV charging. Really.
I think far too many people are over emphasising the problems and going for solutions we don’t need that will be costly.
Let’s say my 10kWh is a huge over estimate (it’s not, it’s a small overestimate) - even then I can make it work without huge infrastructure investment.
Mass roll out of electric heating in the UK on the other hand...
PS - the UK grid was generally designed to domestic load of 2kW ADMD, 15kW individual peak.
Everyone running at 3kW simultaneously for a reasonable length of time would cause significant problems on the LV system - blown fuses, melted wires that sort of thing.
Really, truely.
Well current demand is at its lowest since 1994:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994
which suggests that the grid is less stressed than it has been in recent years.
igm speaks the truth on this matter and from a position of considerable knowledge and experience.
For me I think the way forward is in a balance across all these transport and charging etc solutions, plus much better housing development. So many of the new homes we build are suburban in nature and located such that they make car travel to work a near necessity for the vast majority. Many of our neighbouring countries develop much more sustainably with better city planning and the positive impacts that has on sustainability, with also good living standards, happiness and prosperity. Shared EV use as mentioned above then becoming more useful and more practical (and less frequently necessary) for more people.
As for the transfer of emissions from tail pipe to power station, once you account for the impacts of every step along the way (on both sides of the debate) the outcomes per mile driven are very different. ICEs are gobsmackingly thermally inefficient plus you have to get the fuel to the pump. It all adds up.
So I am on the cusp of buying an EV. I am not a buyer of new cars or expensive ones but at this point in history it is, in my view, right to take this relatively financially expensive step. If I was a buyer of new cars, as many are, I calculate that over its reasonable life the EV option is already reasonably competitive. It is therefore only because I'm normally a pretty cheap per mile car owner that this is for me an expensive step.
I also think I have the opportunity to power mine from more than half PV, which makes a considerable further emissions difference. I have off street parking and a suitable bit of roof, which is nice for me and not something everyone has, but it's hardly unique either.
I worry not a jot about charging. (edit: but then I don't need it kerbside, so apologies for going off topic!)
I think EV are quite possibly the answer, but that the question is probably the wrong one.
Where is everyone travelling to? What % of the population do jobs that couldn't just as easily be done from home, meetings by video conference, public transport or even under your own steam. Admittedly this also needs a lot of infrastructure improvement, but I think we are looking for the solution to the wrong question. Doing more locally reduces the majority of travel. More time for biking too with less commuting.
lol, they already do.The grid in many areas was sized for electric heating
...but presumably when there were far fewer houses.
Our Zoe recently has been getting ~3.5mpkwh, which is significantly less than your 4.4 presumably due to lower temperatures and different journeys.
As larger cars come onto the market the nationwide average will fall further, so I would agree with a figure nearer 10kwh.
Edukator -
Well current demand is at its lowest since 1994:
I thought it was about 2003 (from my recollection of DUKES) but it depends how you count it and you may well be right there.
Certainly been dropping for around 15 years, but transmission grid take and electricity consumed (even after allowing for losses) are not the same thing, so how you represent the figures gives different answers.
In 1994, I was working out how much asset replacement a REC needed to do. I wasn’t doing system design until 1997.
Sense yes, but eloquent?
LOL, what I meant was, there are lots of people on youtube who are wafflers and verbal stumblers, they can't naturally orate or think on their feet. I find him quite good at presenting and putting across his natural thoughts. Fair enough if you don't agree.
I still can’t decide if the whole battery leasing/replacement thing is actually a strength or weakness for the zoe…
I don't know about the numbers in financial terms, but background is Jeremy Clarkson made a comment a few years ago that all EV batteries would need replacing within 3 years, which turned out to be complete bllcks. However, long term battery life was an unknown at the time, something he picked up on. I think Renault attempted to cover that concern with battery leasing. I don't think they offer it anymore now that myth has been busted. Standard car warranty on new EV batteries is now 8 years or 100000 miles.
Everyone running at 3kW simultaneously for a reasonable length of time
27 million households simultaneously charging their car isn't going to happen. Even taking your 10kWh per day which you now admit is pesimistic and 30 million cars to charge then over the day .4 kW x 30 million = 12giga watts. That's if everyone has an electric car and the ability to charge it. Well on some days that could be a problem. Peak demand reached about 55gigawatts a few years back and at that instant another 12 would have not doubt been too much, but most of the time the system would cope right now. In just the same way as the grid copes with people having 18kW of power available and maybe enough appliances in their house to get there if they really tried but people don't.
You said the grid is designed for 2kW domestic load (which corresponds remarkably well with that 55gW peak demand which passed without incident) on the basis of your own number it's going to take electric cars being adopted faster than they can be manufactured to maybe create problems for a few cold days in the year, maybe, assuming no investment in infrastructure, assuming nobody seeing there's money to be made, assuming...
FFS electric car sales are 1% and you're trying to convince me that they're going to destroy the grid, get real.
We wanted to do projects with second life EV batteries - too degraded for cars but with some capability left. Sadly it’s hard to get hold of them because they don’t seem to be degrading fast enough.
Except in Arizona or somewhere in the West Indies. Strange.
