[Closed] Double dip recession

clubber - Member
Growth at +0.1% for two years is just as bad as a double/triple/etc dip that goes on for the same period averaging out to the same growth.

How can you increase output with austerity measures?

You can't

Clubber - the point is tory economic policy is damaging the country badly.

Without getting into the politics of it all, if you seriously think there would have been any other outcome had Labour been in charge then you are a very deluded individual. So crack on with the Tory bashing.

The world economy is shagged beyond repair, particularly in the Eurozone. The government of a single country, regardless of what colour tie they wear, can do the sum total of **** all to alter that.

Ah yes, it's those nasty Tories wot dunnit. So in the last two years they've taken what was a booming economy with absolutely no problems at all and flushed it down the toilet? Of course they have.

You have to live above your means for more than two years to create the kind of mess this country is in, sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything is OK while magicking some more money out thin air isn't the way to deal with it.

If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?

TJ - forget the politicking and Tory bashing, do you really think we can borrow and spend our way out of this? The debt has to be repaid sometime, why should our children pay it for us? I think we've screwed them over quite enough without loading them up with even more debt.

that's exactly the point, double dip or not is irrelevant except for those who enjoy playground politics and name calling. What matters is the long term "weakness of UK output"

I get your point that politicians will use ot to score political points but it is not irrelevant.

How can you increase output with austerity measures?

Private sector billions are coming our way soon, honest

Well really you can't say. I suspect that had labour still been in power they'd be so ineffective by now with in fighting that they may have been just as bad. Ignoring that though, I think their policies may have meant a slightly better trend though with increading hostility towards them as they get accused on spending without control by the RW press as the perception was that it was taking too long to get decent growth again.

Flying ox - interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK.

No doubt, but Labour did this for 10 years. To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

Can I have the lottery numbers for the weekend please

As predicted by everyone bar tory apologists the financial incompetents now running he country have pushed us back into recession.

Like anyone competent has ever run the country.

Tonyd: well put.

Lifer: heard of the bond market? No? I suggest you spend some time doing that. Heard of ratings agenies? You know those things that triggered the bail out of Greece etc (who also lived beyond their means, like the UK)? No? Time to do it then. Off you go.

Labour were proposing lesser cuts, which would have enabled them to cut more (matching the current tory position) or not depending on the economy. Darling called this his 'trap door'.

Boy George has left us with no options.

Can I have the lottery numbers for the weekend please

To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

Heard of ratings agenies?

Are those the ones that gave the sub-prime and toxic loan packages that started the whole shit storm Aaa ratings?

[i]As I said, the mess the Tories have made is the long term flat line around 0% growth. Small double dips are irrelevant except to those who just like lazy headlines. [/i]

it's all very well describing it as small, the devil is in the detail. Back in q3 2011 there was a small rise, about 0.2% in GDP, but that hid a 6% slump in manufacturing. So we have city profits masking bigger problems elsewhere in the economy (the economy that effects most of the population).

I ( and many others ) predicted this a year ago

*face palm

swedishmatt - Member
Lifer: heard of the bond market? No? I suggest you spend some time doing that. Heard of ratings agenies? You know those things that triggered the bail out of Greece etc (who also lived beyond their means, like the UK)? No? Time to do it then. Off you go.

Guessing if you had a point to make you would have made it rather than post a pathetic condescending reply like that.

Clubber - the point is tory economic policy is damaging the country badly. This is just one indication of it.

Can you unequivocally prove that the guy in red, who was probably bullied a lot at school, would be doing any better with his policies?

I happen to think he would, but it is not 'clear'.

Lifer - its a classic tactic - apparently economics is far too complicated for us to understand thus we don't understand why what Gideon is doing is for our own good an it will all be rosy soon. Jam tomorrow!

Flying ox - interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK.

An example of these countries would be...? They wouldn't be the ones duped/forced into borrowing from the ECB in a never-ending spiral of debt, would they?

[img] [/img]

So obvious this was going to happen

Ooookay. I've got to call you up on this one.

Absolutely NOTHING in economics is obvious. There are about a billion factors involved in ways that no-one fully understands. So you happened to pick the right outcome up front - well hurray, you had what - a 33% chance?

I'm no Tory apologist, I also think they have done the wrong thing and are overall clueless, but I'm not so arrogant as to go on about how I was right like a smartarse.

It's all about balance of probabilities. Like gambling.

Honestly mate, you are not an expert. None of us are.

Without getting into the politics of it all, if you seriously think there would have been any other outcome had Labour been in charge then you are a very deluded individual. So crack on with the Tory bashing.

The world economy is shagged beyond repair, particularly in the Eurozone. The government of a single country, regardless of what colour tie they wear, can do the sum total of **** all to alter that.

But some other Eurozone countries are doing a lot better than we are.

If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?

Individuals' finances and a country's economy are not the same thing, people keep making this mistake.

I just wonder how long the Tories cn go on blaming Labour for everything. It starts to look less and less convincing the longer time goes on.

The biggest mistake is treating economics as a science.

Molgrips - that s the point - I am not an expert but this was so obvious to those who have their eyes open that you did not need to be an expert to forsee this.

To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

I stand by this.

But some other Eurozone countries are doing a lot better than we are.

Flying Ox - better in reality. Some nice numbers and graphs in theamhurtmores FT link

[i]Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall[/i]

Please explain 😉

[i]How can you increase output with austerity measures? [/i]
Interesting.
Its the Gov thats tightening its purse strings.
What has that to do with economic output of the UK ?.

[i]If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?[/i]
Exactly.

[i]Well really you can't say. I suspect that had labour still been in power they'd be so ineffective by now with in fighting that they may have been just as bad[/i]
Labour would be cranking up the taxation.

[i]interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK[/i]
Nope 🙂 they are just borrowing more for thier citizens to have to pay off later.
They are deferring recession via borrowing.

[i]Lifer: heard of the bond market?[/i]
A common theme with the left.
Fiscal ignorance.

[b]LUNCH ![/b]

You can give a man a rope....but rarely does he build his own scaffold, tie his own knot and release his own trap door!

Anyone who "does" find economics "too" complicated will be perfectly able to read the "full" Gavin Davies piece. He is one of the UK's leading economists and a man of wide experience including the ability to be a Labour supporter, and advisor to a Labour Government and a senior (now ex) employee of Goldman Sachs (link on previous page).

Very clearly he lays out:

The importance of this data from a deeper economic perspective
The reasons why the UK slipped back into recession
Why the UK is in for a period of sustained low growth
The causes (note the balance there)
The outlook and assessment of current policy choices

FT copyright means you cannot copy this stuff, but worth the subs anyway.

Solo - Member
Lifer: heard of the bond market?
A common theme with the left.
Fiscal ignorance.

No point either?

Labour would be cranking up the taxation.

Faced with moving to the other side of the world for a job, or paying a bit more tax in the country I was born in, I know what choice I'd have preferred

Back to that 'trillion quid' graph - does that mean that debt has increased since the condems got in? I thought they were supposed to be balancing the books 🙄

[i]Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall[/i]

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Teamhurtmore -

the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse. Even your link says it

. Looking at the whole period since the recession started, the UK GDP figures continue to lag behind all other countries in the G7, except Italy:

Others believe that the weakness of UK output, especially in recent quarters, has been due to the government’s programme of fiscal austerity, and see the short and long-term weakness of GDP as a repudiation of that decision.

Solo - Member
"How can you increase output with austerity measures?"
Interesting.
Its the Gov thats tightening its purse strings.
What has that to do with economic output of the UK ?.

Okay pendantos, how can the government stimulate increased output with austerity measures?

I am not an expert but this was so obvious to those who have their eyes open that you did not need to be an expert to forsee this

The way I saw it, it was a balancing act. On the one hand, austerity to reduce spending, on the other borrowing to boost the economy. Both could have worked, both could have failed. Either could have had less effect than external factors.

Seems contradictory that you can be so sure of yourself and yet still admit you are not an expert.

Now, I'd rather have gone for the borrowing option for ideological reasons, but conversely our elected govt would have done the opposite for the same reasons. And I think people knew what they were voting for on the whole. I don't think they knew the full consequences though, but then I don't think anyone did.

The thing is that before these things happen, you get people predicting the full range of outcomes. It's basically pot luck who ends up right after the event.

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

Solo - Member
Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Still waiting for an argument regarding the bond markets.

Just saying 'bond markets, duh!' isn't point btw.

Individuals' finances and a country's economy are not the same thing, people keep making this mistake.

Jam today but you can pay for it next week, by which time you'll have interest to pay so rather than going without jam for two days you'll have to go without it for a week. Next week you can have jam if you like, but you'll need to promise to go without for a month. After that you can still have jam so long as you promise your children won't have any, ever.

the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse. Even your link says it

Anyway, I took from the article that the current fiscal policy might be good for us in the longer term whilst not performing as well as others in the short term. So neither here nor there in terms of proof of either side's argument.

[i]Faced with moving to the other side of the world for a job, or paying a bit more tax in the country I was born in, I know what choice I'd have preferred[/i]

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Taxation isn't the answer.
So I'm glad labour aren't running the show at the mo.

Solo - Member

"Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall"

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Take money out two things happen - tax receipts fall and demand falls as people earn less and have less to spend

Gross oversimplification of course but this is the lesson sensible people learned from previous recessions.

Solo

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Maybe - but we are nowhere near it given that taxation is significantly higher in Germany and France both of whom are doing rather better than we are ( remember you pay for healthcare on to of tax there)

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

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