Nikki Haley looks to have overwhelmingly won the DC primary. Not that big a deal since Trump's obviously going to be overall winner, but, this is the first time in GOP history that a woman has ever won a primary.
Or, to phrase it differently, Donald Trump is the only man in history to be beaten by a woman in a republican primary.
is is the first time in GOP history that a woman has ever won a primary.
Or, to phrase it differently, Donald Trump is the only man in history to be beaten by a woman in a republican primary.
Interesting interview with Steve Bannon on the Newsagents where he seemed it was being conceded they were losing pretty much all the support of female republican voters for Trump, and were going after Black and Latino votes instead (with the 'oh look everyone, Sneakers, and they're gold' ploy). An particularly disaffected, male, black and latino votes.
I't would be interesting to see if theres a split evident in the support for Haley an Trump along those lines.
Would it be the case that Haley's support is largely female? Trump's campaign seems to be pivoting towards 'macho' men, which its seems to have interpreted as 'men who hate women'
Although Trump is beating Haley it's not by miles in vote share terms - although it appears to be is a lot by share 'electors' or whatever the primary equivalent is. The process makes the support for Haley seem less significant that it actually is as come the election it seems a lot of Haley's support won't vote for Trump
Supreme Court has decided that the US constitution says something it doesn’t say 🤷♂️ - gives a bad feeling about the immunity case
Just when you hope more than ever that the orange bloater is heading for jail time,mad Musk might be his saviour 🤔 😠
The perfect storm,when two throbbers collide .
Nikki Hayley to quit Presidential race. Been leaned on?
That is bad news. The shitgibbon doesn't need the easy ride he seems to be getting and she seemed to be a more reasonable and normal (e.g. had a brain, was not a child in adult clothing) and could appeal to the moderates.
Nikki Hayley to quit Presidential race. Been leaned on?
No one willing to tnrow good money at a lost cause, sadly.
Is is not just a case of simple maths - after Super Tuesday there just isn't enough 'points' (or whatever the weird scoring system is) for her to overtake.
I doubt Haley has been 'leaned on'.
US elections are dependent on funding and big money donors don't back losers; they have started to shift their focus to down-ballot votes and that will continue.
The primaries to date show a sizeable %-age of GOP voters - c40% - are consistently against trump and will be targeted by Biden and the Dems generally.
There is a hard ceiling to trump's support and I doubt it's enough for him to win in November.
It's shit sandwich time for the US electorate - the choice is orange bread or white and the bread is stale.
tthew - you mean delegates, I think.
tthew – you mean delegates, I think.
Yeah, that rings a bell. I can't find specifically that there's not enough of them outstanding that she couldn't win it, but she's sadly flogging a dead horse now.
I am sure a poster said earlier that she was just making herself the "just in case" candidate. If the rumours are true with his health (adult nappies etc), or he goes to jail, then she may present as a reasonable alternative in future. She maybe never intended to go all the way.
So, do we now have a situation as with the labour party a few years ago - the party members elect a leader (Corbyn) - the electorate says Heck No! and they are in the wild for a few years?
uggski - it's a 'catch all' term used to describe votes for lower level positions so state or local positions generally.
I see that Mitch McConnell has endorsed trump so that completes trump's takeover of the GOP establishment.
A very sad - and deeply concerning - day.
Bloody hell. I thought he'd stood down so he didn't have to kiss the ring.
US elections are dependent on funding and big money donors don’t back losers; they have started to shift their focus to down-ballot votes and that will continue.
Nikki Hayley was costing Donald Trump's primaries campaign $$$ on ads to fight her off. "Trump's campaign said it raised $8.8 million in January and spent more than $11 million, with outlays including more than $5 million on ads..." Joe Biden spent <$6mn for contrast https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-election-campaign-raised-88-mln-january-disclosure-2024-02-21/
uggski – it’s a ‘catch all’ term used to describe votes for lower level positions so state or local positions generally.
Thanks. Makes sense!
It's amazing to think that after all the shouting over the last 4 years about Trump, he'd be the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms, i can't see anyone but him being the Republican candidate, and Joe Biden is not going to do well in the election run up, especially in live debates, he'll be ripped apart for every error, and Trump, he'll just spout stuff without a care if it's factual, he just needs to make it sound factual to his voters, which basically means he just has to speak slowly and in plain english.
To be fair, i don't think Trump is the biggest problem if he's back in, he just wants the limelight and being top dog, it's the mentalists in the republican party and government who will try and vote through damaging motions whilst everyone is focused on Trump, same as Boris was for us, everyone focus on the performer that he was and not see the slight of hand of the other tories.
I see that Mitch McConnell has endorsed trump so that completes trump’s takeover of the GOP establishment.
Mitch McConnell had long ago fallen in behind Donald Trump. He invoked a little-used majority vote that eventually put three Trump nominees in the Supreme Court (Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett)
McConnell denounced the 2019 first Trump impeachment as "unfair".
He voted to acquit Trump during his second impeachment following the Jan 6th 2021 insurrection, despite saying that Trump was "practically and morally responsible" for the attacks
timba - I'm very aware of McConnell' s manoeuvres over the years; you didn't mention one of his 'star turns' when he refused to hold any senate confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland's nomination to the SC after Antonin Scalia's death on the basis that...it was too close to the election (6 months away).
That decision created the republican super-majority on the SC.
He was a politician par excellence
He has shown considerable personal distaste for trump so...I stand by my assessment.
Its collection day in the defamation case, Trump has to find 95 million dollars, maybe Musk will pay it? Or MBS?
Not quite.
Collection date is 9 March but trump's lawyers have filed various motions - reduced damages, delayed payments, payments on account and earlier this week motions to have the case dismissed and/or reheard.
Some of the motions have been rejected.
Several things strike me about their various moves - desperation as witnessed by the number and spread of motions; inconsistency - let's throw loads of shit and see if any sticks; the tried and tested delay approach - they could have filed motions to dismiss or have a rehearing within days of the damages award but have waited until only days before $ must be handed over either in payment or to enable an appeal.
As you, futon, suggest..he appears to be waiting for 3rd party funding.
I went to see what fivethirtyeight has to say but apparently it has died since last time I checked. However, I found where Nate Silver is hanging out now and...
It doesn't look good. Looks like we are going to have 4 years worth of Trump as long as the Democrats don't do the unthinkable and persuade Biden to step aside very very soon.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to-put
Is it likely that anyone who didn't vote for him last time has decided in the intervening 4 years that he's worth another shot? I can't imagine it, so I reckon Biden will win again. (I've been known to be wrong in the past!)
Trump will win, bet you 50p.
50p!
I'm not usually a betting man, (well not since I got stung on here in an argument about converted camper van speed limits) but I'll risk 50 new pence. 🤝
I tend to go with the same view as @tthew, Yes Trump's won all the primaries, but with nothing like the majority that was expected in some cases 20-40% of republicans either voting for Hallie, or not voting Trump. Unlike 2016 which saw him as an unknown and outsider, many many more folks know exactly what a Trump presidency will look like and there are millions of republicans that don't want that at all.
Witness the shabby trainer release as a not-so-subtle nod towards the Black American vote, as they're haemorrhaging support with the college educated, the young, women...
The fate of Ukraine rests with this idiot.
Surely the Ukrainians can make him fall out of a window and make it look like it was Russians.
Is it likely that anyone who didn’t vote for him last time has decided in the intervening 4 years that he’s worth another shot? I can’t imagine it, so I reckon Biden will win again
Quite possible that some have decided to just not vote at all this time, Biden doesn't seem very popular either. Certainly doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion to me either way yet though.
I always thought the polling is particularly unreliable in the US and the mid terms are a much better indicator. So it's reasonably optimistic. Although its still far too close for comfort and crazy that its got to this stage. The Dems do seem rather complacent though.
There seems to be a recent fillup re Trump's presidential campaign but surely seeing off Haley in the Primaries and the supreme court decision aren't surprising at all?
Trump will win, bet you 50p.
I'll take that bet.
I dont know who will win btw. I dont see how anyone currently can with any meaningful certainty.
I'll also have 50p that trump will lose.
I'm with nick - in the primaries to date there has been a significant proportion of GOP members (c40%) who voted are against trump.
General election turnout will be higher so...what will the anti-trump GOP voters do; how successful will the dems be in wooing disaffected GOP members; how will those voters who don't turn out in the primaries vote in the GE.
trump's base is not enough to get him voted in.
How successful will Biden be in getting the electorate to see the economy is on the up? How many democratic voters are so disillusioned with Biden that they will not vote for him?
How many voters will decide not to vote as neither candidate appeals to them?
trump has clearly telegraphed how he would govern - as an isolationist, undemocratically, a racist and vindictively. That's not an appealing message for the undecided.
For those who go on about Biden's age and cognitive ability, try reading a transcript of any of trump's speeches; they make no sense, they are incoherent, he fills in gaps with random words. He is incapable of meaningful discussion and cannot articulate anything other than his range of self-interests, persecution complex and general contempt for everything non-trump.
It's interesting that Info Wars are already priming their audience with "If Trump loses, it was a rigged election" line
Latest polling shows them neck and neck/within margin of error territory...
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/
I read a good point elsewhere that will probably swing it for biden... in summary:
A) Trump has never stopped campaigning, so his figures will be quite static at best...Biden hasn't even started yet
B) Trumps campaign funds are low compared to biden, unless he convinces Musk to bankroll him
There are a lot of people energized to vote for Trump, but there's an awful lot who are equally there to vote against him. I don't think he will .
Given there ages it's about 10% at least one of them won't make it there
Christ! Who'd want to be an American? What a choice
I know that our own selection is hardly inspiring, but just imagine if the upcoming UK election was a groundhog day rematch between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?
I'll bet 50p on Trump losing, just so long as I can find one of those Brexit 50p's to use for the stake.
I know that our own selection is hardly inspiring, but just imagine if the upcoming UK election was a groundhog day rematch between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?
No thoughts involved, either corbyn or a psychopathic narcissist……….hmmmm, let me think…….not.
wbo
Given there ages it’s about 10% at least one of them won’t make it there
At 77 and 81 I'm not sure either of them will finish the term if they even get there. Fingers crossed it's the younger man that blinks first.
Out of the ‘tough’ choice, one will surround himself with experienced political and practical players, the other, charlatans, yes men, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
I didn't see it earlier in the thread but the DOJ have said "nuts to you" to the SCOTUS and stated that they will continue with the trials into the election period.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dojs-60-day-rule-role-play-trump-trial/story?id=107789927
The decisions are not in the gift of the DoJ in the form of a 'blanket approach'.
Each judge will decide independently on when their respective case will proceed.
