i think the biden stuff could be the gift Trump needs to edge it
depressing the democrats couldn't have found someone younger!
Biden to make unscheduled speech at 12.45am UK (7.45pm EST).
No indication of likely content.
Will questions be allowed?
Unknown.
^^ It's going to have to be good. I really hope it is.
Gavin Newsom.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68244352
There is nothing wrong with my memory please prosecute me. I even remember that Palestine is in the Americas
Asked to comment on the latest in the Israel-Gaza war, he said: "I think as you know initially, the president of Mexico, Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in."
If he takes the election it won’t be due to skill or competence, but the incompetence of those who oppose him and their own lack of ability.
I think the Republican gerrymandering of districts could have a meaningful impact to, some has been overturned via the courts but there's still enough of it remaining that it could be decisive.
^^ It’s going to have to be good. I really hope it is.
It was a total clusterf***! Biden needs to go. I have no idea WTF the democrats are doing putting forward a candidate who is clearly in the early stages of dementia and physically frail to the point where he can barely walk to a podium. And they expect him to travel the country on a gruelling election campaign?!
I think the Republican gerrymandering of districts could have a meaningful impact
Not really for the presidental elections.
Those that split the electoral college by district (think only a couple) which would allow gerrymandering if anything are fairer than the winner takes all elsewhere.
But still in a better state mentally and ethically than Trump. It's not even close. US voters have the choice between a fraudster and rapist who can't walk down a ramp and soils himself on a regular basis, speaks literal gibberish on every subject, and has promised a presidency based mainly on revenge and the removal of democratic/legal accountability. And Joe Biden, who is elderly, occasionally mixes a word up, but is still physically active, and seems to have at least a passing relationship with human decency.
It's not an ideal candidate selection, but these are unusual times. Biden polls better than any other Democrat politician, and has the best chance of beating Trump again.
And Joe Biden, who is elderly, occasionally mixes a word up, but is still physically active, and seems to have at least a passing relationship with human decency.
I don't disagree, but he's not going to win. Whether he likes it or not he's the incumbent, and there will be much more focus on his ability to do the job than there will be on Trump. TBH I'm not even sure he'll make it to election day so they're going to have to choose a running mate very carefully as that's who people will be voting for.
Whether he likes it or not he’s the incumbent, and there will be much more focus on his ability to do the job than there will be on Trump
Given that Trump was president a few years before that, I think voters will also have some data on how he did the job. It's not like he's some fresh-faced 'let's see how it goes with him' type candidate.
It's a shitshow alright, far from ideal. But the economy is currently experiencing a decent period under Biden, and I believe there is a relevant quote on that.
but he’s not going to win
While Trump is wildly popular with Trump supporters, the rest of the world (including Americans) think he's a ****. I don't think anyone can say that Biden has lost the election.
While Trump is wildly popular with Trump supporters, the rest of the world (including Americans) think he’s a ****. I don’t think anyone can say that Biden has lost the election.
I wouldn't be so sure.
Both are very unpopular. Previous polling suggests that if either party want's to win the solution is to select any other candidate. The problem is Biden is the incumbent so won't be seriously challenged, and Trump has mobilized a fringe big enough to get him nominated comfortably.
How have we got to a situation both here and in the US, where both main players in the up coming elections are far from ideal ( and that's being very polite ). I suppose the answer is just politics, but surely it's more than that? The thought of Trump winning is a very scary thing for the world, just as Labour not getting next time is equally scary.
Both are very unpopular. Previous polling suggests that if either party want’s to win the solution is to select any other candidate
Polling is a very nuanced thing. Polls ask very spoecifically phrased questions and guide the respondent to set answers. Listened to a fascinating interview with a campaign strategists in the US who was saying he has no idea why opinion polls are even published - they don't mean anything to the general public. He said they were a very useful tool for people like him but not by taking the results at face value. People don't give honest answers. I don't mean people lie. If you ask people their opinion they are more likely to give you the answer they think they should give, that someone 'like them' would give, rather than their real thoughts.
Asked about the two likely nominees people might well express a wish that someone else was in the running. But theres no indication who that someone else should be. In Trump's case theres been a whole host of 'someone else's' for republicans to choose from and they are not choosing them. In Biden's case although his approval rates seem low - in primaries he's polling very high, even if he's not on the ballot.
People might be alarmed by the odd gaff or stumble but they're not on the whole alarmed by his actions, policies or judgement
In polls people's stated perception, on both sides of the aisle, is that things are going badly in the US. 90% of those polled think the economy is going badly, prices to high, wages too low - asked if they think wages have gone up with inflation the say prices have gone up more than pay - the opposite is true. Asked if they have the confidence to make a major purchase just now - they say they don't. In the last year people in the US have bought more boats than at any time in the country's history. Very few people need to buy a boat - it's very much an avoidable expenditure if you're worried about your job and finances. At the tills the country clearly expressing itself as comfortable and confident People are spending as if Covid and Ukraine had never happened. But - when asked - they say they are not. What a politician or a campaign strategist has to work out is what question are people really answering.
Are democrats really answering 'I'm doing fine thanks but I presume I'm lucky in that respenct and I'm concerned for people who might not be' Are republicans answering 'Everyone else is a loser but I'm doing fine thanks and nobody deserves the credit for than but me'?
While theres lots of doubt available for voters to express about Biden I think it's more that they are worried for him - it would be a shame if he got ill or died. But I don't think thats the same as being worried for themselves if that were to happen - the US wouldn't ne in some leaderless wasteland, the next in line would take the reins. You might not be a fan of Harris particularly but you wouldn't worry her taking the reins would be some dreadful handbrake turn for the country taking it into uncharted territory - you'd just have a moderate democrat leader.
Whatever their expressed concerns, faced with the choice I don't thinks people who don't want Trump elected will use their vote in a way that allows that to happen. They certainly won't vote for Trump (and Trump his hardly trying to appeal to them) but they won't either fail to vote or vote for a 3rd candidate either.
How have we got to a situation both here and in the US, where both main players in the up coming elections are far from ideal ( and that’s being very polite ). I suppose the answer is just politics, but surely it’s more than that? The thought of Trump winning is a very scary thing for the world, just as Labour not getting next time is equally scary.
Smarter people have better things to do their time than get mired in the pantomime of politics. We get the government we deserve. We don't as voters / citizens create a climate where credible, capable people would pursue a career in politics. Imagine if you were considering a new career - would you chose one where your most important attribute is what you look like eating a bacon sandwich?
Also, it hasn't dawned on a lot of people that the election will be Trump versus Biden again. If you follow politics, that has been obvious all along, but people who don't follow politics don't seem to have realized that it will be a rerun. That makes it easy for people who prefer Biden over Trump to express dissatisfaction with Biden. Once the campaign season gets underway properly, Trump's history will be hammered relentlessly - serial sex offender, tax fraud, led an insurrection, charged with retaining classified documents, abortion bans, left office with unemployment surging and debt skyrocketing, etc., etc., etc.
Yes, I would prefer a younger Democrat to be running, but that's not going to happen. In a choice between Biden and Trump, Biden is by far the better option. I think a lot of people will make that same conclusion.
Given that Trump was president a few years before that, I think voters will also have some data on how he did the job. It’s not like he’s some fresh-faced ‘let’s see how it goes with him’ type candidate.
Can't help but feel that there's a lot of 'of course we won't vote for brexit' false optimism going on here.
Also, it hasn’t dawned on a lot of people that the election will be Trump versus Biden again.
I agree, but the flipside of that is it may be very low turnout.
Which may help Trump as his base will turn out, whereas I don't think Biden's going to really inspire anyone. "I might be too old but at least I'm not Trump" isn't a campaign that's going to win the middle ground, if they don't like either candidate they'll just stay at home.
Polling is a very nuanced thing. Polls ask very spoecifically phrased questions and guide the respondent to set answers. Listened to a fascinating interview with a campaign strategists in the US who was saying he has no idea why opinion polls are even published – they don’t mean anything to the general public. He said they were a very useful tool for people like him but not by taking the results at face value. People don’t give honest answers. I don’t mean people lie. If you ask people their opinion they are more likely to give you the answer they think they should give, that someone ‘like them’ would give, rather than their real thoughts.
IIRC the polling was to give hypothetical options like "Harris Vs Trump" or "Biden Vs Haley".
Hence my thoughts above that I just can't see a high turnout voting for either. It's an inspired right wing minority Vs a disparate "anyone but the right wing minority" vote.
I just can’t see a high turnout voting for either.
I disagree, I think it will be another record number of voters.
The problem is Biden is the incumbent so won’t be seriously challenged...snip
There isn't anyone who can challenge him. Kamala Harris has managed to score a lower approval rating than Joe Biden, which is impressive for a VP https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/ (maccruiskeen makes valid points about polls, but that's all we have ATM). In 2020 Joe Biden won the Dem nomination and swung states that had chosen Trump in 2016. Robert Kennedy Jnr is polling closest of the also-rans, but he went independent in 2023 (and he has interesting medical beliefs)
Yes, I would prefer a younger Democrat to be running, but that’s not going to happen
Practically speaking it's too late to change the nomination. It could be done but I think that a more likely scenario is a resignation after election, which is allowed under the 25th Amendment. The only example is Robert Nixon who resigned following Watergate.
This has the advantage for the ruling party that the former-VP (now President) could in theory stand in two more elections for President and serve for longer, although it didn't work that way for Gerald Ford
"Trump’s history will be hammered relentlessly – serial sex offender, tax fraud, led an insurrection, charged with retaining classified documents, abortion bans, left office with unemployment surging and debt skyrocketing, etc., etc., etc."
Part of the problem here is that you've typed, inadvertently or not, "led an insurrection" as third on the list.
The ultimate problem is that Trump supporters don't care about his failings - he almost wears them as badges of honour. But both democrat and republican voters care about Binen's age - enough that he's not going to get any sort of momentum behind him. The get out the vote rally will be met with a resounding 'meh', and Trump will slide in without expanding his base. Probably loose the popular vote like in 2016 but still win enough votes in the right places to get over the line.
And the truly unforgivable part of the scenario is that in 4 years time in the last year of the next cycle neither of them, the only two people realistically able to take office now, are going to be fit to be in office. Trump is not fit today (and wasn't in 2016) but I think it is an almost certainty that Biden will be care home material in 4 years. He is only a couple of years older than my mum, but she is in another league of sharpness to Biden. He is an old 81 year old.
But both democrat and republican voters care about Binen’s age
Who is Binen? How old is he? Or do you mean "Biden" but you just made a simple mistake?
Very good. But no, I've heard enough of his press conferences to know it's more than the odd mouth slip. He's slowing down significantly. Mark my words, in 4 years time, regardless of if he is in power or not, he'll be a shell of the man who was VP to Obama. He already is. For reference Google his 2008 acceptance speech. If it was that Biden on the ballot paper in 9 months time the US wouldn't be in the mess they are.
I’ve heard enough of his press conferences to know it’s more than the odd mouth slip. He’s slowing down significantly.
No, he has a decades long record of speaking gaffes. He's not a great orator, his success in politics comes from being really good at making personal connections, not speaking to crowds. He is, apparently, a very empathetic person and masterful at dealing with people individually or small groups. That's not an act, it's who he is. Following on from that, he has been very successful over the decades at getting bipartisan legislation through the Senate. That's because he's willing to talk to people who disagree with him and find the common ground needed to make deals. Ironically, this is exactly the deal making skill that Trump claims to have (but doesn't). The absolutely critical voting bloc that made him President was Black voters, he has decades of experience working with Black leaders and getting results. That's because of his interpersonal skills and deal-making skills. People overlook speaking gaffes if you have a record of getting results.
The disconnect between "Biden is slowing down and sometimes gets confused" vs "Trump lives in a fantasy world" is bizarre to me. Biden's not the guy I'd want in charge, but he's not running against Kennedy or Adams, he's running against a man that was an incompetent idiot even before his brain went down the toilet.
I appreciate that doesn't really matter for the hyper partisan parts of US politics but it's bizarre to see it overlap into the reality-based community. "Biden mixed up a name" vs "Trump said we need voter ID to buy cereal and that airports were important military targets in the revolutionary war". Leaving aside that Trump mixes up words and names more often than Biden, without even the slight excuse of the speech impediment and being a little bit busy being president of the bloody USA.
No, he has a decades long record of speaking gaffes. He’s not a great orator, his success in politics comes from being really good at making personal connections, not speaking to crowds. He is, apparently, a very empathetic person and masterful at dealing with people individually or small groups. That’s not an act, it’s who he is. Following on from that, he has been very successful over the decades at getting bipartisan legislation through the Senate. That’s because he’s willing to talk to people who disagree with him and find the common ground needed to make deals. Ironically, this is exactly the deal making skill that Trump claims to have (but doesn’t). The absolutely critical voting bloc that made him President was Black voters, he has decades of experience working with Black leaders and getting results. That’s because of his interpersonal skills and deal-making skills. People overlook speaking gaffes if you have a record of getting results.
Have you actually googled and watched him in 2008. You might be surprised.
And I'm not saying I don't want him to win or even that he has not got some great qualities that make him a very passable president. But that's all irrelevant. He needs to be able to do the shizzle the important voters want to see him do. Not the die hard educated dem votes who value such things - they are not important. I'm talking about the intellectually average at best voters with less than a passing interest in politics and a concentration span of the length of a Facebook reel who either could swing both ways (because they are morons) or will need a shit ton of motivation to get off their chubby arses to waddle to the voting booths. They are the people someone like Obama was able to hype up and get to do the right thing. I just don't have any confidence that a very tired Biden is capable of doing that.
From Ian Dunt on twitter
Yes I wonder what's most important. The fact that one of the US presidential candidates is a bit doddery, or the fact that the other one is a deranged ****ing lunatic. It's so hard to tell.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1756251677898739924?s=20
Also, Trump just talks random nonsense but people just ignore it because they are used to him just spouting nonsense, whereas Biden is expected to talk like a guy who runs the most powerful nation on the planet.
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1756372095628419232
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1756164250827948384
https://twitter.com/digby56/status/1756431129396260896
Trump: “One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay, and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, ‘You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
We're talking about getting names wrong, while he's saying he'd encourage Russia to attack NATO allies. And of course, this is all based on a conversation that he's invented, about "bills" that don't exist.
In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.
You think he feels the same way about the $83 million he needs to pay to the woman he sexually assaulted and what the courts should do if he doesn't?
If he's not running out of decent lawers to represent him, he must be running out of money at a very rapid rate. 83 million USD is not pocket change.
If he’s not running out of decent lawers to represent him, he must be running out of money at a very rapid rate. 83 million USD is not pocket change.
Apparently, he can use campaign funds to pay legal expenses (but I assume not the fine itself). Problem is, he's already spent about $50 million on legal fees and the Democrats are outraising Republicans by about 2 to 1. Kevin McCarthy was a really good fundraiser but he got booted from the speakership. Mike Johnson is inexperienced and struggling with fundraising so it looks like they are going to replace Ronna (Romney) McDaniel with him as the party chair because they desperately need money. Having to pay Trump's legal bills is going to divert money from congressional candidates.
It doesn't matter how many gaffes Trump makes. Just like it doesn't matter how often Sunak changes his mind on a policy. You try to define your opponent in terms of some perceived weakness and keep hammering that. Trump is an evil criminal who is a danger to the whole world, so it doesn't matter how forgetful he is 🙂 Biden on the other hand is a senile old fool so every mistake he makes matters.
One thing that often gets overlooked with the court cases is that is isn't just about demonstrating Trump's (many) faults. You'll never get his base to accept those anyway. It's also about draining his campaign of funds. If you can outspend your opponent by a large margin in key states that could well make the difference. Well I hope so anyway.
Personally I think a lot will come down to who Biden chooses as his running mate. That's who a lot of people will think they are voting for. He's a skilled politician and that's partly demonstrated by how effectively he's managed to neutralize the threat posed to him by Harris. But that now leaves him with a problem as she's no longer an asset to him.
while he’s saying he’d encourage Russia to attack NATO allies.
Putin will signal that he's heard this. Likes to play games with the MAGA crowd - like sanctioning the prosecutors in the various Trump legal cases so that while they are trying to deny Russian Interference on one hand he's signalling that enemies of trump are also enemies of Russian - flattering and undermining them in the same move.
The question is whether the signal will be something he says or something he does.
It’s also about draining his campaign of funds.
It depends on whether you see the court cases as a good or bad spending of funds. A lot of campaign spending is the cost of media - paying for you message to be on every local and national tv channel, radio station, newspaper - of which there are very very many. Trumps is using his court cases as a public platform for himself - he is is addressing everything he says to the public rather than the court, whether as a defendant, a witness or even just as a heckler. But that makes everything he says 'news' and as news it appears on tv, radio and in print for free.
His legal fees so far have been less half what De Santis spent on losing just two state primaries
It's also worth noting that Trumps 'offer' to voters is pretty much absolutely nothing. Theres no message for him to get across. All his voters are being asked to do is elect him so that they can watch him get revenge - he's stating quite nakedly election is entirely about his ego, reputation and for his personal benefit. He's not talking in any coherent way about jobs, he's not talking about taxes he's not talking about security. Just about him. So the court cases are not a distraction - they are exactly on message - and losing them is doing him no harm becuase it just adds to the personal injustice and the revenge that he is due to collect.
'Ask not what you can do for your country but what you can do for me.'
It won't be about 'him' if he gets in though, he'll just be a doormat for others exactly like last time. The Heritage Foundation are saying loud and clear exactly what they'll do with 'his' presidency.
Personally I think a lot will come down to who Biden chooses as his running mate.
Unfortunately I think that's the case, as a lot of voters will be making the assumption that he's not going to get through an entire second term. Kamala Harris has had an entire term to cut through as a successor, hasn't happened. US politics and society generally has regressed horribly in the last 10 years, to the point where we're not talking about a possible woman president, let alone a black woman president. Sadly, I think that does for Pete Buttgieg too, although he's brilliant and capable.
Gavin Newsom would fit the bill for the moment we live in, I suppose. Biden needs someone who is going to go on the attack for him non-stop.
I just can't understand how the list of awfulness that Trump is, and his mental worsening (which is significantly more pronounced than Biden) still seems to get no traction.
Good point @maccruiskeen
If Biden were to start attacking Trump on mental acuity he'd be doing exactly what Trump wants i.e. making the election all about that issue. He needs to keep the focus on the areas where he has a clear advantage over Trump and that's not one of them.
AOC would be the only person that would have the name recognition and firepower to really shift the needle, but a substantial proportion of Republicans really hate her and as a Latino, she's not going to swing as much of the Black vote as Harris is (theoretically) going to. AOC would tear Trump apart, especially if she's didn't care about a possible presidential run herself.
I'd really like to see Beto O'Rourke, but he's always had a tough beat trying to start from Texas. Even so, he still managed to garner almost 45% of the vote for governor in 2022. He spoke so well during his presidential run in 2019/2020. A real breath of fresh air for the Dems. Came across like Kennedy and Obama during their early runs.
And just when you think he can't get any worse......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68266447
Weapons grade megalomaniac.....
I genuinely worry about the future of the World my Daughter is growing up in 😞
AOC would be the only person that would have the name recognition and firepower to really shift the needle,
If the battle ground in middle ground voters someone to the left of the Democratic Party isn't the answer. She's great, I really like her but Biden's success against Trump last time round was his uncontroversially middle ground-ness. I don't think AOC could even take all the Democrat party with her let alone draw votes from disenfranchised republicans
