If I understand this correctly, this is among registered Republicans. That's a number that should really worry Trump and encourage Democrats.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1747064551432974627
I think additional polling also showed that many of those Republicans who didn't vote for Trump also said they'd rather abstain or vote for Biden before ever voting for Trump.
Hopefully it will wake up more moderate republicans to turn out for other candidates in New Hampshire or beyond.
Who are they turning out for now that Chris Christie is gone now. The rest of the candidates are pretty much either banking on the Trump vote if he winds up in jail / chokes on a cheeseburger or auditioning to be his VP (in the hope that he winds up in jail or chokes on a cheeseburger further down the line)
The only moderate menu of the menu is Biden really.
You know Biden lost the Iowa Caucus in 2020? In fact since 1976, only two Iowa winners have gone onto win the Presidency, Obama in 2008 and Bush Jnr. in 2000. It's not an indicator of anything other than impolite things about Iowans.
What I don't understand is why the democrats don't put up a better candidate. Biden was the right person last time but clearly is not now - they don't need a steady hand - they need a leader to inspire
Agree TJ. Surely there must be someone better suited to the task and more likely to beat trump. It’s unfathomable.
it’s not as if Biden would lose face by pulling out. He’s ancient and could just claim 1 term is enough for someone his age.
Too late now. It just looks like you're running scared.
What I don’t understand is why the democrats don’t put up a better candidate.
Serious question - who do you think would be a better candidate? Replacing an incumbent President as your candidate is a very serious decision, the incumbent has a huge advantage in the U.S. political system. Kamala Harris just hasn't come across as a strong alternative. It's easy to say they should replace Biden with someone better, it's much harder to find someone better than people assume.
All the Democrat options don't work for 2024, or are vulnerable in the current poisonous political climate.
Best guess for 2028? Gavin Newsom vs Gretchen Whitmer, I guess.
surely there is someone? Is the talent pool that shallow?
Agree TJ. It's not like Biden wouldn't be on hand as an experienced advisor to a possible successor (probably the most experienced political advisor a USA president has ever had available to them).
Maybe if the decision was taken earlier, and if Trump wasn't the presumptive candidate for the Republicans. But now it looks like weakness, and the options poll badly against even the Republican minnows, let alone Trump. The Democrats need the incumbent advantage to win.
I don't think Biden wants to be there, which is part of the problem, but he feels it is his duty to see off Trump again because of the risk to the democratic process itself.
surely there is someone? Is the talent pool that shallow?
You generally want someone with experience either as a state governor or in the Senate so they understand the major issues and can talk to a wide range of voters. Having the support of major unions is important for Democratic politicians and having support from Black voters is too. Biden ticks those boxes - support from Black voters is what let him easily beat Bernie Sanders. Biden has announced he's running for re-election. In order to get the nomination, a challenger would have to run against Biden in primaries and beat him. Any candidate who takes on Biden and loses will probably never get another chance. That's a big risk for an ambitious young politician. I don't think there's anyone else in the Democratic Party that has the level of support needed to beat Biden.
That’s pretty weak for a guys who has been the party leader for the last eight years.
So weak, it is an all time record margin - Trump is going to be the Republican candidate and the odds are he will be able to beat Biden.
What scares me more is that if Trump gets in his first move out of the gate will be to copy his heroes Putin and Kim and make himself Dear Leader for Life. You can only rely on death to rid us of this tiresome beast!
And then the offspring replace them
An American political commentator, Professor Robert Langdon, is just on 5 Live now repeating the claim that the evangelicals in Iowa regard Trump as 'a sort of messiah' who is doing 'gods work'.
They think that he will protect them from the 'Deep State', and all the charges against him proves them right as they are 'out to get him' because of this
How can you campaign against that?
They're all absolutely ****ing nuts!
Professor Robert Langdon
Very good in the Da Vinci code.
He is a lecturer, but not in fictional subjects. Though I bet commentating on the present state of American politics, he must wonder....
If you haven't seen or heard any/all of the 'God gave us trump' vid...here you go.
Made by some rabid trump supporters; it's truly unhinged.
PLayed in Iowa, shared by trump on Truth (?) Social.
It's likely this will be played over and over during the election campaign.
Very good in the Da Vinci code.
Deserves credit
The cognitive disassociation required to simultaneously believe that Trump is representative of God on Earth, and read that he's up in court again for defaming a woman that he's already been charged with sexually abusing must cause a not insignificant number of seizures
Related to the comments above about Biden and the Democrat candidate - how late in the game can a candidate be switched? Is there a point of no return? I think I'm hoping that the Democrats are waiting for the GOP to commit to Trump as candidate and then they'll perform the ole switcheroo for a younger candidate (if, say, Biden's health falters etc).
Theres a good chance Trump will be the next president, but Trump's ability to alienate people will help Democrats swing behind Biden, even if they dont like him
Reversing Roe vs Wade brought it home to a lot of people
Thats no guarantee though
Its worrying that in the UK we follow where america leads, Austerity, Brexit, trussonomics..... youd think the Tories would be wiped out for a generation, but they still poll at least 25% of the vote
Some polling has Trump in front, but polls in some of the key swing states, the only ones that matter really, are against him currently. Can't see that situation improving if he is convicted of various felonies in the meantime.
Trump die-hards don't care if their man is a traitor handing over national secrets to foreign enemies, but quite a lot of regular folks do.
I don't think it's huge news that he'll likely be the Republican candidate, it was almost a given...
The election on the other hand...we can only hope he loses!
youd think the Tories would be wiped out for a generation, but they still poll at least 25% of the vote
That's why when I'm in the corner shop I punch 1 in every 4 customers I see.
Probably flawed logic but it makes me feel better.
Biden will be the Dems candidate unless he dies or is deemed mentally incapable before November.
IF Biden is re-elected I think it will increase the possibilty of Mitch Landrieu standing as a Dem candidate in 2028.
If you're asking...who he?
Two term Lt Governor of Louisiana, two term mayor of New Orleans; senior adviser to Biden's infrastructure and investment board; now co-chair of Biden's re-election committee.
From a family steeped in politics.
Kamala Harris is not, IMO, a likely candidate in 2028.
I agree with earlier post that Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer are also likely candidates.
How long before trump and his acolytes start raising concerns about the possible integrity of this year's election?
How long before trump and his acolytes start raising concerns about the possible integrity of this year’s election?
About 3 seconds after (if) they start looking like they might lose some states on the live updates on TV during the counting process of said election!
That of course won't apply to states where they have a promising/healthy lead 😉
How long before trump and his acolytes start raising concerns about the possible integrity of this year’s election?
They've already implied it a long while back by saying that, "if you let the Dems get away with the steal they will do it again!" Etc etc.😑
That’s a big risk for an ambitious young politicia
Might be me but nearly every US politician seems to be old.
Might be me but nearly every US politician seems to be old.<br /><br />
it requires an exceptional amount of money to be in us politics - the fund raising required to get elected (or rather just to run)at any level is pretty extraordinary. At congress level a term is only 2 years so you are campaigning (and funding your campaign) almost continuously . At some levels of state government elections are every year. You basically need to be both wealthy and well connected to wealthy people to be in politics. It takes wealthy well connected people most of their lives to get both wealthy and well connected. By which time they’re old
It's all coming home to roost for the democrats unfortunately, they chose Biden as their candidate 4 years ago at the age of 77, and Kamala as his running mate, this has left them with the embarrassing situation of having an 81 year old going for reelection, and if he isn't the candidate, by rights, it has to the be the VP who gets the nomination, but she's even less popular.
Trump just survives everything, it's unfathomable, he's in court for criminal charges, hoping to use immunity, his family are the same, he's named in the Epstein reports, but it's laughed off, same as everything, the guys teflon when it comes to politics, his presidency was all about just lie to their face and blame the other side, and it still works for him.
So no ambitious young politicians. Just old people with no vested interest in the future because they won’t be a part of it. America, **** yeah!
There is, but not for a sitting president going for their second term, never happened before, won't happen now.
I suspect the young ones dpn't have the cash or the contacts with cash to make a go of it...it isn't cheap and you need to dig very deep if you have any morals to sell off what you want to do to get the money to get you to the position where those promises need to be cashed in. Politics, in the US, doesn't appear to be a young persons game.
De Santis is only 45 and has raised plenty of money.
So no ambitious young politicians.
Cant remember who it was about or which paper it was but there was a comment about someone considered a "young politician" and then a note saying they are 60.
No, but to become a national figure, you need time to work your way up through the party
Or be a "celebrity" (aka useful idiot)...
Struggling to think of something worse other than Trump obviously.
The Lettuce?
