Forum menu
Point taken about the options - they were just the two currently being used.
At the moment the government have basically said: "This is what you are going to do." The response is: "What's the evidence to support that?" to which the government are saying "you don't need to know that"
I think you two are now having a heated agreement... and I agree also.
Realistically I think we need to be looking at effective, low intervention, treatment that doesn’t tie up ICU beds for months. I.e. a drug or cocktail of drugs that would make contracting Covid-19 as inconvenient as the common cold rather than being another form of Influenza.
For the significant majority of the population getting rid of track and trace would make CV19 far less inconvenient than a cold. Not advocating that... just stating the obvious.
How so? Losing workmates and loved ones isn't "inconvenient"?
The chances of that happening to you remain pretty small. Among the 40k excess deaths I would expect a significant number were people at the end of their lives in some way or another and so would be expected to die at some point in the coming months/year, and the total represents an 8% increase per year maybe? 8% more chance of knowing someone that died say in the last year? Thats not a significant increase in the likelihood of any given person on the street having had someone close to them die in the last 12 months say by comparison to the chances of that having happened in a 'normal' year.
Its not nice and Im not advocating the policy, but the numbers don't support the idea that CV19 is significantly impactful to the population as a whole other than in terms of the effects of restrictions it creates, and we don't yet know what the long term effect of those will be.
But we'd not be talking 40k, if we didn't take the measures we did, and are... such as track/trace/isolate. Anyway.. this isn't what Burnham is opposing, or suggesting... there's another thread if you want to make comparisons between this virus the common cold, or to argue that the possible impact of it is low... happy to talk about such [insert word of choice] over there.
The chances of that happening to you remain pretty small
Thats not a significant increase in the likelihood of any given person on the street having had someone close to them die in the last 12 months say by comparison to the chances of that having happened in a ‘normal’ year.
Cheers Ben, perhaps you could call my wife (with common variable immunoglobulin disorder) and tell her she can die so that you can get back to life without any inconvenience.
The 'small chance' is still someone.
At the moment the government have basically said: “This is what you are going to do.” The response is: “What’s the evidence to support that?” to which the government are saying “you don’t need to know that”
That's mostly because the Government don't know / don't care / can't follow the evidence either!
the “it’s already mutated, a vaccine won’t stop this” meme
My understanding is that while a vaccine may be the long term aim, it's more likely that we'll have effective treatment for Covid initially. Prevention may be better than cure, but we'll all take a cure if there's one going, I'm sure.
Cheers Ben, perhaps you could call my wife (with common variable immunoglobulin disorder) and tell her she can die so that you can get back to life without any inconvenience.
Like I said Im not advocating basing policy on it.
The chances of that happening to you remain pretty small. Among the 40k excess deaths I would expect a significant number were people at the end of their lives in some way or another and so would be expected to die at some point in the coming months/year, and the total represents an 8% increase per year maybe?
It's over 60k excess deaths already, majority of those in a 3M period. When we had a 3M limited lockdown in place.
If those people were likely to die anyway this year, we'd have seen a massive dip below the average line. We haven't ergo it's reasonable to suggest that most of those people would have survived the year.
If we don't get it under control soon, then that 60k excess deaths can easily become 100k this year. Then we're going into next year with 100's of daily deaths.
If we just let it rip, surely we're closer to the initial predictions of 250000 deaths.
chakaping
Full MemberTier 3 restrictions would certainly take an economic toll on Greater MCR, but would they really do much to stem the virus vs. Tier 2?
No, basically. A bit, but if things are bad enough to go up to the highest level of alert, then "a bit" doesn't cut it.
Of course, that's part of the farce of the 3 tiers- there's no low tier, as if nobody ever gets to get better. And there's not really any high tiers either. There's just 3 levels of middle, with not much room between them. It's like a really bad compression damper. All the actual action is going to come from the tier 3 small print "plus other stuff as needed"
If those people were likely to die anyway this year, we’d have seen a massive dip below the average line. We haven’t ergo it’s reasonable to suggest that most of those people would have survived the year.
ehhhh, there has been a dip below the average line. It'd be a stretch to say it's massive - and nobody but a mentalist would argue that the net effect is neutral - but it's there
Like I said Im not advocating basing policy on it.
Wrong thread and totally pointless uneducated speculation.
Wrong thread and totally pointless uneducated speculation.
This whole thread is uneducated speculation.... But no its not the wrong thread, what this thread is about is Andy Burnham's attempt to balance the need for protecting the health of a minority of people against the longterm welfare of the majority, who would be adversely affected by more restrictive lockdowns without adequate additional protections from the government.
The argument being played out in the media is that AB is directly responsible for the additional deaths that may occur in MCR, or alternatively he's a hero looking out for the overall welfare of the city.
This ultimately is where all covid discussions will end up, in a dilemma of balancing the needs of the few with the needs of the many. I was simply reflecting on an earlier point and highlighting that its difficult to determine what the appropriate level of intervention is as one person's treatment, is another persons long term life opportunities restricted, and as MOAA points out, it could be another's death sentence.
Wrong thread and totally pointless uneducated speculation.
Are you new here?
ben - suggest you read TiRed's posts on the Coronavirus thread about equipoise.
We haven't found that point yet.
Burnham has gone from being a decent MP who was an "also ran" to a political heavyweight overnight. I'm fairly impressed by him to be honest, however the scientist side of me is telling me that we need a stricter lockdown. That's not to say Burnham is delaying any kind of lockdown is horseshit - Johnson's cabinet are the ones delaying a proper lockdown and not supporting business properly.
And good luck to Boris and Rishi trying to * over the rest of the local councils the way they just *ed over Lancashire and Liverpool.
All their constituents are presently asking why their leaders didn’t stand up for them like Andy has done for Manchester...
Every time a government minister thanks them for the cooperation
Which they’ve done quite a lot over the last few days
You can tell the only person with any proper political nouse here. And they’re certainly not in Westminster
Sadly I think Burnham is destined to lose this battle with Westminster. When the hospitals fill up and the deaths increase the finger of blame will be pointed solely at him, and they'll say he sacificed x number of people for a political vendetta and to improve his own profile. HIs only chance is if cases start to fall once the spike caused by the students arriving has passed. I suspect he doesn't care though. In this interview at the weekend he says he has no political ambitions left so maybe he's willing to die on this hill.
What I don't get is why they're so determined to cut the furlough support. There's no economic reason not to continue the furlough scheme as it was. The only possible explanation I can think of is that Sunak was getting a bit too popular and Cummings and Boris wanted to clip his wings so ordered him to reduce the level of support to the point that it makes it pointless. The tories get to keep their fictional reputation for financial prudence whilst painting Boris's main rival as the bogey man. Give it a year when the economy has crashed as a result and they'll sack him.
It's like dealing with the school bully - c'mon then, let's have it out now johnson.
Bully makes loads of noise but does nothing to prove him/her self as the better person.
Short term, johnson will prevail because he is PM but he is the long term loser - as are the members of his clown circus.
If johnson took this seriously he would talk direct with Burnham; he delegates to eddie lister and useless jenrick.
That clearly demonstrates how little regard johnson has for the north; johnson's only regard is for his johnson.
Burnham emerges with reputation massively enhanced.
johnson demonstrating, yet again, he is an intellectual and political midget.
What I don’t get is why they’re so determined to cut the furlough support
Tgey are prisoners of their own ideology, which dictates to them that this is all wrong and that they are preventing Them Market’ from sorting everything out for them.
Because we all know how well that always works out.
What worries me now is how far they’re prepared to go to prop up their bankrupt dogma when faced with someone standing up and pointing out the folly of it
That clearly demonstrates how little regard johnson has for the north
He sent Helen Whately to tell ‘the North’ that they were all being put in Tier 3
HELEN ****ING WHATELY
It that doesn’t tell us the esteem in which we’re held, I don’t know what does. Is it any wonder the entire north of the country was immediately united in opposition
Can you think of anything more insulting?
Ooooooooooo.... chinless, corrupt * Robert Jenrick is giving us a noon deadline to do what we’re told.
Tell you what Robert.... why don’t you * right off!
he’s asking for evidenced based decision making with transparency
The problem is this is essentially new science with no reasonable control experiments so there is no compelling evidence one way or the other. The best you can hope for is risk assessment not practical evidence - if course a policy of transparency would make that clear and how you reach the conclusions you do, and which assumptions you used are most critical and most likely to be wrong.
Arbitrary deadline of midday? We can assume an announcement this evening then? I’m guessing that they’ll renounce the financial support already offered and give no exit from tier3 strategy…. proving Burnham right. If you love British pubs… prepare to lose your local this winter, possibly never to return.
https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1318447334540402688?s=21
So, it looks like it's literally high noon today then?
How typical of the government to issue an ultimatum via the media without letting anyone in Greater Manchester know. Once again everyone found out by reading it online. That perfectly illustrates, as if more proof were needed, the utter contempt in which the government hold us up here. Another Westminster dictat issued without consultation. I had a horrible feeling that our de facto PM/dictator, Cummings, was itching for a fight. This is no longer anything to do with health or the economy, it's about Dom asserting his authority.
I hope Andy tells them where to stick it. What exactly are they going to do? Send the troops in?
It's certainly going to be an interesting day in Greater Manchester. Andy seems to have pretty much universal support up here.
And I'm sure every area not already under Tier three is watching this very carefully to see what they're in for, not far down the line. Whatever happens to us today... you're next.
And as the video points out… not just Greater Manchester. Many of us risk being pushed into tier3 without the required support and without a path out of it, this winter. I think plenty of people outside GM can see what the battle really is.
It's a rock and a hard place job he's got.
First is the immediate threat of health or long term health problems, and to balance against that is poverty and deprivation which have much the same result only it's not directly attributed as a cause.
Fundamentally the government is placing restrictions on personal liberty (rightly IMO), but this has an economic fallout. It is the job of a govt to protect its people, and that's exactly what it should be doing, and compensating them for the economic harm caused by that deprivation of liberty.
Protecting the people should be the whole point of having govt. Even the Pharaohs kept reserves of grain etc for times of famine. This mob would simply sell it to their mates.
How typical of the government to issue an ultimatum via the media without letting anyone in Greater Manchester know
Amongst all the rubbish and idiotic stuff this government do, this really annoys me every time it happens and stuff is leaked to the media or posted on twitter late at night
Binners - Andy Burnham definitely needs a piece of your artwork on his wall.
How typical of the government to issue an ultimatum via the media without letting anyone in Greater Manchester know.
How do you know that? They've been in meetings for three days, or by this statement do you mean the public?
Another Westminster dictat issued without consultation.
They've been in consultation for 10 days now.
I hope Andy tells them where to stick it.
Oh dear he isn't, he's going to adhere to the - Tier 3 - law, never mind.
I don't like this governments actions - or lack of - any more that you do Binners, but at least read the news before you rant.
Fundamentally the government is placing restrictions on personal liberty (rightly IMO), but this has an economic fallout. It is the job of a govt to protect its people, and that’s exactly what it should be doing, and compensating them for the economic harm caused by that deprivation of liberty.
Although we could spout on about magic money trees, and "money" would be of help to some, it does not make mental health issues go away, and indeed would create a cliff edge of depravity when that assistance - on which many people would be reliable - is withdrawn. In fact, it couldn't be withdrawn easily for that very reason, so you basically fall into a state funded society and make it even easier for people to manipulate the game and avoid work, squeezing the economy from the other end. You want communism here, then thats the way to go and we'll all end up in miserable Jobs building vaccines in new factories whilst the other half of the population lives on "furlough".
Andy seems to have pretty much universal support up here.
I really hope so, sosh meds is suggesting it's splitting along brexity/political lines
As Cummingses waffen SS stormtroopers bayonet people to death on the street...
"Boris has got such a difficult job..."
"Burnham is just political point scoring..."
"He's a failed mp..."
"We need to get this virus under control before the levelling up begins"
"Uuuuuurrrrrgghh"
How do you know that?
Andy Burnham and all the other parties involved here have made it perfectly clear this morning that they were not made aware of this. They were not given notice. They found out via the media. As seems to be the norm with this shower nowadays. Government via leaks and social media
Maybe its you who needs to read the news?
I don't know why this comes as any surprise to you. They do this all the time. I'm only surprised that it actually came from a minister. Normally it comes from a 'Downing Street Source' (code for Dominic Cummings)
Remember that when we were put into Tier 2, we were 'informed' via Twitter, late at night by little Matty Handjob. Hours before Eid, putting a stop to family gatherings. We're still there 12 weeks later. Has it worked? No, of course it hasn't. Has anyone in Westminster asked anyone up here why not? Of course they haven't. Why will it be any different this time? Of course it wont. Which is why we are placing a lot more faith in our elected representatives here, rather than the gang of incompetents presently masquerading as a government
We're being treated with total contempt by a government that has no interest in our views or our regional economy, and we're heartily ****ing sick of it!!
so you basically fall into a state funded society and make it even easier for people to manipulate the game and avoid work, squeezing the economy from the other end.
It seems to me that there has been, and continues to be an awful lot of 'state funding' of their mates, when awarding multi-million pound contracts without tender and with no oversight
Thats communism, is it?
Looks like crony capitalism to me
Ah, because Andy Burnham told you. While I highly suspect you are absolutely correct, your undwindling belief in our Andy is potentially dangerous. Please remember he's a politician as well.
Notwithstanding that even if Kendrick stood in front of me and told me face to face that he'd told Andy yesterday I'd have massive reservations. Kendrick as your say was just a mouthpiece for Cummings.
You want communism here, then thats the way to go
And the stupidest comment of the month award goes to..
FFS can you not see the negative impact that shutting down thousands of businesses without the support they need will have? This may come as a surprise to you but not everyone has a nice nestegg to fall back on if they lose their jobs. The result will be people on the streets in sleeping bags and untold misery elsewhere. And your response is 'shit happens'. Nice!
Even the Pharaohs kept reserves of grain etc for times of famine. This mob would simply sell it to their mates.
Well, the Pharaohs only stored grain for famine when Joseph told them to, iirc. They didn't think of it themselves, despite it being blindingly obvious. So there's a definite parallel with this government
Could I lob an unwelcome handgrenade in here......
Thinking about this last night - quite impressed that AB and other local leaders are standing up to the national government for the people they serve. But.....are they being as vocal with the locals about getting it right and minimising risk and to do their part in reducing the risk of economic annihilation? Greater Manchester has all the ingredients for a covid hotpot (relatively dense population, socio economic makeup, employment types that can't be done at home etc) but it is still doing comparatively poorly. There are other pockets of the UK with the same ingredients who are not doing so badly. It has to be something to do with local behaviour at least in part.
Sign a truly strong and successful leader is the ability to stand up for the people they are leading whilst balancing that by having the bravery to tell the same people where they could be doing better.
FFS can you not see the negative impact that shutting down thousands of businesses without the support they need will have?
Yes I can, but it needs to managed carefully and not just assumed we all make a play for reliance on 100% government handouts. If you think they control you now, that'll be much worse for people.
And your response is ‘shit happens’. Nice!
No it wasn't, so kindly don't out words into my mouth.
@Kryton57 - London/SE is max 2 weeks behind this, let's see if your posturing continues then.
Communism?
Have you seen the financial package we're actually being offered?
£22 million for an area with a population of 2.8 million?
Difficult not to reach the same conclusion as one GM politician, really?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1318318990054379521?s=20
Do the maths. We're being offered a 'support package' to shut down large sections of our economy for an indefinite period, amounting to
*drumroll please*... £7.86 per person
Its an insult
Chris Grayling could spaff £22 million in a slight mid morning mishap. Its less than half the amount of tax that Robert Jenricks flagrant corruption let Richard Desmond avoid. They handed out contracts worth more than that to their mates for PPE that couldn't then be used or never actually appeared. How much has Serco been paid so far?
we all make a play for reliance on 100% government handouts
There are sectors where exactly that is required this winter. Not us "all", of course, but social distancing is currently still our main tool in dealing with this virus... and some businesses exist to enable social contact... and we will need these sectors to bounce back when we have new (working) tools in place... not smashed up and all the staff out hunting for non existent jobs over the winter.
London/SE is max 2 weeks behind this, let’s see if your posturing continues then
I'm not posturing ElShalimo. People have created an anger driven secular argument in here with Burnham blinkers on. I get that there is a lot of angry people and that there will be more, but I'm not going to trade insults on here, I'm out.
Oh and FWIW if you've been reading my inputs anywhere you'd know my personal circumstances have become very challenging this year, I'm not blind to the fact it could be much worse very shortly either so don't think I'm posting from some London based Ivory Tower and sneering at the Northerners.
TTFN
Good to see our useless Cornish Tory Bots getting involved...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/four-cornwall-mps-demand-manchester-4620734
You want communism here, then thats the way to go
Can someone explain how it would be communism?