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Morning folks, after a low-key day yesterday, i suspect we won't say the same about today. Let's see what's in store.
Thursday 25 July - The 18th stage of the Tour de France is the first race in the Alps. Following the start in Embrun the 208 kilometres route takes in the Col de Vars, Col d'Izoard and Col du Galibier before a flying descent into ski resort Valloire.
The race leaves from Embrun, in the 2013 Tour de France host to a climbing time trial that was won by Chris Froome. Four years later, in 2017, a stage set off in the Hautes-Alpes village and went to Salon-de-Provence, where Edvald Boasson Hagen brought the early break home.
A Boasson Hagen victory is highly unlikely this time, as the route traverses the Alps. Following intermediate climbs up the Col de Vars, Col d’Izoard and Col du Galibier the race ends with a descent to Valloire, which lies close to the summit of the Col du Télégraphe.
The Galibier is a grueling ascent of 23 kilometres. The first 14 kilometers are relatively easy. Actually this is the Col du Lautaret and gradients are hovering between 4 and 5%. The rest of the climb is 7 to 8% material with the last kilometre kicking up a little to 9%. Overall, the average gradient on the Galibier is 5.1%. After its crest – where the first three riders pocket time bonuses of 8, 5 and 2 seconds – the route continues with a 19 kilometres descent to the line in Valloire.
Valloire has rarely been included as an arrival. Obviously the village was a passage on numerous occasions on the way to the Galibier and in 2013 a stage left from Valloire to Ivrea. Attacker Beñat Intxausti took the win that day, outgunning Tanel Kangert and Przemyslav Niemiec in the sprint.
Time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds are awarded to the first three riders on the line. Plus, as mentioned, there are extra seconds available at the Galibier.
So, what's the profile look like? Lumpy.
Couple of particularly interesting bumps here:
So who are the Contenders?
The Contenders: will a breakaway make it or do the GC contenders get the stage win? It’ll depend on how big the breakaway is but with still so many teams lacking a stage win many riders will be ordered to go in the breakaway. But going up the road is one thing, winning another. Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) is an obvious pick and he can score points for the mountains jersey too, Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) is likely to be motivated too but the legs seem less willing.
Among the GC contenders there’s a shared interest to put Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quickstep) under pressure but each team will want someone else to put the pressure on. Alaphilippe can try to break the stage down – the Vars is “easy”, the Izoard will be ridden tempo, follow the wheels on the Lautaret, hold on during the first half of the Galibier, 15 minute effort over the top and voila – and could stay in yellow and even take the stage win if he’s not put in the red. But he’s looking increasing tired and if he stays in yellow today surely it’ll cost him tomorrow.
Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) was the strongest in the Pyrenees, now we’ll see if he can keep it up. A late move on the Galibier could see him take the bonus at the top and if doesn’t get clear his sprint from a small group is handy.
Egan Bernal is in a delicate position. If he attacks will this make others chase and potentially put Geraint Thomas in the red? But Ineos still have two cards to play and Thomas is surely the best of all the GC contenders for a sprint.
Mikel Landa (Movistar) can still pounce, he’s not an immediate threat on GC either and team mate Alejandro Valverde is said to have his limits on high altitude but today’s climb over the Galibier is only a quick excursion. Among others Warren Barguil (Arkéa-Samsic) is caught between two stools, he wants a stage win and a top-10 place but he won the French championships with a handy sprint.
And so to yesterday, pics below:
it's going to be ****ing carnage in this heat....
Martin and Rowe out of the Tour, I wonder how much impact not having the road captain will have on Ineos, and not having a huge engine up front will have on Lotto-Jumbo? Rowe seems an integral part of the team and I can't see another obvious road captain to step up.
There's an appeal going in so there's an outside chance that they may ride, but likely that the most that will happen is reduced fines. Crying shame.
Today is the same as yesterday but on steroids - bigger hills and a longer descent to the finish. I'm making the same call as yesterday - breakaway with a good climber to win. Nibbles, Adam Yates, Cummings top 3.
The Serre Chevalier stage! Woop woop! 😎
As above, carnage. Barguil to win the day, however.
You'd think todays the day wouldn't you, Krujs, Bernal or Thomas, maybe Pinot, whichever of them is likely to win the Tour, todays the day you've got to bury Alaphiliipe and make your move against the other GC contenders.
I'm going all in for a GC shoot out, small elite group making it to the end, fight for the time bonus between Pinot and G, climbers sprint for the line including Jalap making it back on the descent for the stage win
Nibbles, Adam Yates, Cummings top 3.
Ah, humour. Almost missed it.
It's similar to stage 18 in 2011 where Andy Schleck attacked on the Izoard, Cadel Evans had to chase him down solo through the valley and Voeckler just held onto yellow. I reckon there will be some early softening up and the aim will be to get rid of Alan Philips before the descent off the Galibier - if they can!
Well, if today’s stage isn’t going to be the most exciting of the tour so far then I’m not really who I am and an imposter in a girls dress.
It will be:
Like CFH I’m going for Barguil.
I reckon a break will last, but only just. If Pinot has the heat mastered then he could punt off and take Bardet with him... and Bardet is my outside bet. I follow AG2R on insta, the pics they’ve posted make for a totally knackered squad and look all intense purposes to quit, yet here they are again day after day. I would love to see Bardet up the road.. best of luck to him and the squad.
Buchmann as a totally outside left of field bet, along with Kwiatkowski.... this does depend on whether Thomas feels the need to be hand-held or whether Skneos want him up front checking out the flora & fauna.
I can’t see a change in GC unless Alaphilippe blows chunks, however he’s been of late he seems to have the nous to attach himself to Thomas by some dental floss.
It could be a Valvpitti day, now Movbouys are fracked and in a little disarray he could pedal squares and roll one out, for old times sake.
Either way, set to record since the wind is blowing and sun shining on the coast here, and I’m off windsurfing.
Enjoy it ☄️🌻☀️🤯
Don't forget it’s on Eurosport from 0945... See, even they’re excited.
I'm going Landa then. But other than that... I'm struggling. I cannot see Bardet at ALL or Barguil. Nah, not having it. Buchmann, yeah i can see him...
I've called it twice for Ewan in the sprint stages, but I've got every other prediction massively wrong so why change now? 🙂
Today's the day la creme rises to the top. I have a nagging doubt about Pinot on such a arduous stage in the heat. I fancied Kruijswijk but his gingerness counts against him for similar reasons. G has flattered to deceive so I'm going for Bernal to take it by 30 secs and for Brailsford's head to explode.
Expect to see Ciccone, Michael Woods and Omar Fraile in the break.
Nibbles, Adam Yates, Cummings top 3.
Sad to say but Cummings looks like his best days are done.
I'm going for a neutralised stage with the breakaway to succeed. Nibbles to take it on the descent.
09:52:26 BST
An hour before the start of the stage, Steven Kruijswijk, George Bennett and Laurens De Plus had an unexpected doping control on the team bus."The element that they can come [at any time] is enough, I hope, to deter people that they're never safe," said Bennett before the start,
While I applaud spot testing, I do wonder how much this would have affected pre-stage preparations for a team challenging the French rider(s) on a key stage... Of course, the testing is done via random selection, isnt it? Totally random...
Martin and Rowe out of the Tour, I wonder how much impact not having the road captain will have on Ineos, and not having a huge engine up front will have on Lotto-Jumbo? Rowe seems an integral part of the team and I can’t see another obvious road captain to step up.
Kwiato mostly likely. He's pretty much done the job before, though not at the Tour.
It seems daft that there's no appeal mechanism.
I’m going for a neutralised stage with the breakaway to succeed.
This^
I think the GC fight will start tomorrow.
Ned chatting to Luke Rowe live now - int the car on the way to the airport
So many teams have got diddly squat so far, so I think there will be a breakaway with the likes of Bardet, Barguil, Quintana in the mix. I will go for Bardet for the win.
I think there will be some change in the GC - key will be who can handle the heat, whether the disqualification of Rowe and Martin will affect Ineos and Jumbo Visla, and whether DQS will be able to provide any support for Alaphilippe. My thoughts are that Alaphilippe will be the main casualty leaving Thomas, Bernal, Kruiswik and Pinot to fight it out over the next two days.
Ned chatting to Luke Rowe live now – int the car on the way to the airport
He says G is likely the effective road captain and calling the shots. He sounded understandably gutted, but also took responsibility for his own actions.
Fast start in this heat. Seems to have settled down now but I think some might really suffer later on today.
Currently sat on lower slopes of Galibier enjoying the spectacle.
Here’s hoping spin has a gnarpoon t shirt on. Will look out for it.
Bardet to win?
Maybe he feels better today.... here’s hoping.
A. Yates for the stage?
GC will finally jettison Ala, leaving the main show to Thomas, Kruiswijk and Peanut, with Bernal as G's wingman.
The tour has just gone past us (barcelonette). My house/hotel (le sauze) is in the background of the last photo.
Bennett down. Could be an issue for Kruiswijk if GB can't get back on.
Did Bennett get back on? It looks like the GC teams are letting DQS gently toast on the front. The break is safe with Viviani pulling on the front of the peloton.
Movistar doing their typical “teamwork”
Always good to see Quintana driving things on?
this is brutal....
Did Bennett get back on?
yes he did, quite some time ago
I think Weeksy was the only one to go for Landa. He's looking strong and he has Quintana up the road :):)
the Yellow Jersy doesn't look great
Quintana actually pulling on the front today, maybe he is feeling good after all
Quintana is in virtual 2nd at the moment.
which explains why Ineos are on the front and closing the gap
Surely ineos should let it grow by another min and let Quickstep chase?
Or Jumbo Visma??
Surely ineos should let it grow by another min and let Quickstep chase?
I don't think Quickstep are capable of chasing. They'll sit in and wait for someone else - JV or Ineos - to do it and hope Alaphilippe can hang in there.
I don’t think Quickstep are capable of chasing.
Exactly eliminate the yellow jersey.
Must be time for Ineos to get a shift on and try to take yellow? Been watching since 10am but will have to delay the rest of the stage as I'm going out at 3:30 to get new KTM.
Exactly eliminate the yellow jersey.
I don't think they will chase. And I don't think Ineos or JV can force them to chase until the final few km. They're not really behaving like a team holding the yellow jersey in a traditional way.
Nairo is flying if he doesn't go pop, got that contract dangling over him he wants signed
oh my - just so ****** awesome. Alaphilippe really doesn't want to give up that jersey
So impressive from NQ and JA.