[Closed] So, who's gonna win the TDF 2011 then?

Yes. I did. Its not the same I think. Just don't think any GCers will attack on it. Others (AC, SS maybe)

There was very little flat yesterday. There is a reasonably significant flat before ADH which is normally very windy.

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AS time trial abilities are crap. Look at his final TT last year.

If you look at the 4 individual TTs in the last two tours, he's been within 30s of Cadel at each (apart from the final one last year where he was 5m ahead but that was cadel's problem not andy getting great). So if Andy goes into the TT with his minute on Cadel intact, my money is on Luxembourg, not Australia.

It was a hugely impressive ride from AS yesterday, but he's still an odious turd of a man. I was also very surprised to see that level of performance from him given it was only a few days ago that he cracked on a category 2 climb. Obviously the rest day since must have done him some good...

Jesus, its a 3 week marathon. People come and go with form and feeling of energy. It is possible for people who don't dope to feel shit one day and have a rest day and recover.

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 79:34:06
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:00:15
3 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:01:08
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:01:12

Who knows. Seriously, how good is that! Two days left and one of four (probably three really) riders could win and we really won't know who until the end of the TT unless someone (AC?) really goes on the rampage today or all the three other contenders have a really bad day today

p.s. I HOPE people attack on the Galibier, just don't think they will

did you not watch yesterday ?

yeah but look at the scales of those two profiles

is that a giant "huck to carpark" at about 90km today ? - cool

TV for the 360 with flip win on that

one of four (probably three really) riders could win

i think evans is in the best position right now. he's riding very well reminds me of lemond, probably the strongest and not taking any risks tactically with a very good tt card still to play. i still want voeckler to win but think he'll do well to get on the podium. i expect some tired legs today, would surprised if anyone can pull out a ride like schleks.......except maybe the other schlek.

I reckon evans will have all available hands at the front to stop any friends of schleck getting into a breakaway without them and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders. Team's job will be to deliver evans to the final climb in contact and hopefully sheltered from doing any work beforehand

I think it'll be a straight race up the final climb - fast from the bottom
My guess is that andy is ****ed and evans is more stubborn of the two. For me, whole race depends on frank, err, maybe - will he help andy get up or go for his own gains ?

It was a hugely impressive ride from AS yesterday, but he's still an odious turd of a man. I was also very surprised to see that level of performance from him given it was only a few days ago that he cracked on a category 2 climb. Obviously the rest day since must have done him some good...

Jesus, its a 3 week marathon. People come and go with form and feeling of energy. It is possible for people who don't dope to feel shit one day and have a rest day and recover.

And did he really crack anyway? I don't recall it all going down the drain for him at the end of the stage.

[i]Did you not read the bit about the huge downhill and flat? Descent of the Izoard yesterday 17km, with the next climb starting almost straight after. Descent of the Galibier today 36km, with another 10km before Alpe d'Huez starts. [/i]

there was a long 10km 2-4% gradient run in before the climb proper yesterday into a nasty head wind and for a poor descender AS didn't lose to much time to the pack on the descent. I'm not saying they will attack I'm saying its not, as proven yesterday (even though andy thought they would), certain you can pull them back.

I reckon evans will have all available hands at the front to stop any friends of schleck getting into a breakaway without them and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders. Team's job will be to deliver evans to the final climb in contact and hopefully sheltered from doing any work beforehand

But does he actually have the team to do that?

After that (galibier) he's on his own for schuure

I think the entire outcome will depend on Frank. He's the freshest of the 4 and has the ability over Cadel or Tommy to put some big attacks in. He'll either put good time in like Andy did or they'll chase him down and tire themselves out even more.

If Frank attacks I'd put podium AS, CD, FS.

If he has a mellow day it'll be CD, AS, FS.

I'd love Tommy to bury himself in the TT though. He deserves to be stood on that podium.

Its all good. Yesterday was a surprise attack. You think that anyone would let a GC contender get to ADH first?

ADH mass TT with both Schlek's going for it is where my money rests.

my feeling is that AS wants the yellow jersey today so that means for him it's attacking Tommy on Alp-d'euz and then riding the TT of his life tommorrow.

Andy
Frank
Cadel
Tommy

In that order.

"Contandor has to got for it today, try and do what Schleck did yesterday, he has no other option."

I don't believe he has either the legs or the team.

and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders

i want cadel to win 🙂 probably one of the shreks will win it though.

monsieur voeckler obviously overdid it on the pain o chocolates yesterday morning

im confident that if he rides on just a coissant today he can get himself back in front.