[Closed] Le Tour - Stage 11 - Who's got something left?

And for an extra here in Adam Yates Strava from Yesterday
https://app.strava.com/activities/346051358/overview

Well I'l be the first to admit I got yesterday pretty much wrong, well except for the break with Bretagne Sache and Cofidis in it 😆 I don't mind that, yesterday brought pain and agony to the very front of what Tour riders endure. Today, well today I do believe will be a close held pack with the GC lot just pegging each other. A group with Valv/Quinty/Sky's immovable trio and will amuse a few others hoping to gain an insight in how to ride when your rivet has been worn away by the skin of your balls.

But I still big up the small guys, Bretagne's Fedrigo and Sepuldeva were right there until the last 5k, with Sepuldeva with the GC group until Frommie span off that is. So, once again I'm begging up the small Guys, and today I reckon DeLaPlace and Vechon will be out front, but for overall win? I think it'll be Pantano or Wyss from IAM..

8)

I hope Froome (& Sky) is tired and loses 2 minutes! Please don't let the race be over after the first day in the Pyrenees!

The faces of Bertie & Nibbles compared to Froome and Porte don't seem to support the chance of a minute or two swap around... (highly scientific analysis based on hacked smile data)

😀 You dirty rotten hacker, I hope you're suitably ashamed! Did you get any data out of Quintana......Na thought not!

Let's see some of this consistency TJVG was talking about! Movistar certainly won't be dragging the peloton up the next big climb!

Ohh hang on I've had another rethink, I'm keeping my initial thoughts up there ^ they don't change but I'm adding in Lotto J's Kruijwijk with Ten Dam dragging him up until he pops, then Kruijy' dragging off the front.

So, my two Bretagne boys, then IAM's Pantano and Wyss with Kruijy' with Ten Dam helping him.

Crips, a long shot but hey, most riders know the climbs today and will have been up them once or twice at least in recent months 😆

and for the watchers should be about 13:30 up the Aspin and 14:30-15:00 for the Tourmalet. Clear at the Tourmalet clear to the end?

Fantastic day yesterday and great to see the performances from the likes of Gesink, Yates and Gallopin.

Unless there's been some magnificent bluffing today has to be a day for the break, finally.

After yesterday's shenanigans I can't see the big 4/5 up to much. Froome & TJVG are in a position to watch their rivals, of which we can pretty much say Nibali is not one of them. I think we're going to see the wanna polkadot jersey wearers in action, of which I think will be the most interesting come Paris, Most likely some half decent names in the breakaway, Voeckler, Sanchez, hopefully Simon Yates will be out there, people who've no yellow credentials. Their issue is going to be the likes of Bardet, Pinot, Rolland etc who have probably lost sight of even a podium place so I can see the KOM's Jersey as their new target too. Which I suppose leaves the question of what is Nibalis goal now?

Ooh, Tourmelet, I like this climb a lot.

Well, after making a fool of myself yesterday with predictions and other such things I feel I should keep quiet. But no, I will not be silenced, my crap predictions (Kristoff for the green jersey anyone?!?!) will continue.

So, another day, another break away doomed to fail, yet again there will be Frenchmen in it, jersey's undone, pendants swaying, yet again, they will get caught. Last year this would have been a Nibbles stage, tough climbs and a good downhill to put more time into people, but this year? Not Nibbles that's for sure. So, for me this is a stage for a climbing puncheur, if he was not supporting Froome I'd say it suits someone like Geraint Thomas, someone who can climb but also can throw a bike down a hill as well, remember Thor Hushovd winning a similar stage?

So, a prediction. Nothing to change in GC unless someone makes a pigs ear on the way back down Tourmalet, Bertie will try something that won't stick, Nibbles is gone, TJ will be knackered and Quintana will not fancy making another fool of himself for the 2nd day on the bounce. So my pick today is Ryder Hesjedal, he can descend, climb and has no GC ambitions so may be let go.

And finally, a pic, in my eyes the finest all round rider in the peleton, a brilliant bike racer and all round nice guy. Is there a better domestique than him?
[img] [/img]

I predict it's going to go bonkers today with some crazy breakaway containing Nibali flying off up the road, Sky knock themselves out trying to reign it in then Movistar hand it right back to Sky with Quintana (or maybe Tinkov & Contador) owning everyone with bombers and pulling two minutes back.

Probably not but it would be brilliant viewing 😀

Sadly, my prediction today involves Geraint losing several minutes as the last 2 weeks catch up with his legs

Nibali makes a break on the long descent but gets no help from the breakaway and is reeled back in

Quintana to win - negligible gains

This is great 😀

We need more random predictions 😀

Froome to stack it after hitting a carelessly discarded paprika crisp packed but runs to the finish and still wins. Quintana to lead an early break that gets lost and is never seen again.

Quintana will not fancy making another fool of himself for the 2nd day on the bounce.

Harsh, I don't think that happened at all.

I'm hoping that Porte went a bit too hard yesterday and wont be able to keep it up today, Quintana to make a few seconds (Not many, but enough to give those of us who chose him over Froome in our fantasy teams some hope 😆 ). Judging by the way the Sky lot were acting after the race yesterday though, they've got plenty more to give and I just don't see anyone else being strong enough.

bikebuoy, OK then, my fantasy league secret weapon - GENIEZ !! 😳 - to ride away from his breakaway companions and take a 12 minute win

Stages like this are weird with such a long descent after the big climb of the day. The only significant GC action will happen if a climber/descender specialist with nothing to loose (Contador) makes a break for it up the Tourmalet then risks life and limb maintaining the gap on the descent and hangs on up the last 3rd category. Otherwise it'll be a few seconds either way.

Oh, but I predict some folk getting unhitched on the Col d' Aspin and having a long lonely last 60km and not making the cut off.

Thinking about the Sky support riders, Poels was up there as were GT and Porte but no sign of Koenig, kennaugh and Roche, maybe they will be the support team today. That may explain why the others rode so hard as well.

Ned Boulting on Twitter reckons it's a Veockler kind of day and we'd all love that.

I'm hoping that Porte went a bit too hard yesterday and wont be able to keep it up today, Quintana to make a few seconds

Incidentally, Radio 5 won't bloody shut up about Chris Froome this morning - big media charm offensive from Murdochland ?

A classic Pyrenean stage with ascents of the Col d’Aspin (1st), Col du Tourmalet and finishing at the top of the 3rd cat climb to Cauterets. A few slightly steep sections midway but the majority of the last 12km of the climb is just below 9%. The current Strava KOM is Laurens ten Dam who averaged just over 20 km/h and 341 Watts for the 51 minutes of his ascent as part of the last mountain stage of the 2014 Tour de France.

Col d'Aspin
Col du Tourmalet
Cauterets

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Incidentally, Radio 5 won't bloody shut up about Chris Froome this morning - big media charm offensive from Murdochland ?

Stages like this are weird with such a long descent after the big climb of the day. The only significant GC action will happen if a climber/descender specialist with nothing to loose (Contador) makes a break for it up the Tourmalet then risks life and limb maintaining the gap on the descent and hangs on up the last 3rd category. Otherwise it'll be a few seconds either way.

agreed, I'm not a fan of having a HC in the middle of the day, at a guess they will all stay together and someone will make a break attempt up the final climb, but it won't be a GC contender

somebody is getting excited, should be easier to spot
[img] [/img]

Ok this is great.. let those creative juices flow lads.. 😆 Loving the slip on a paprika crisp, Genius.

Anyone seen the Dutch contingent on "Dutch Corer" yet..? I've been searching twitter to find them but nothings been posted yet, normally they're all over it with pics of chips and beer and orange.. Be cool if we could see a small pic..

Punctures..?
I reckon there will be a few in the lead groups today.. Ever been up there? it's a bit gravelly and unless the Train went in before with a huge broom the stuff will be all over the road just before the top..

Mad Fans....?
I predict a riot of red and green crossed flags and a few Euskatel Orange jerseys too.. 8) Oh the days..

Those numbers look far too big for a Porte size jersey, he needs mini numbers to match his physical stature!

Nico Roche did a lot of the work once the movistar riders all popped, but it's true that konig and pouwels got an easier ride . Lunge is right about G, truly magnificent rider and should have been better protected last year

my prediction is that sky and Saxo will be at the front keeping it solid over the tourmalet and that if there are any fireworks it will be on the final climb

but it won't just be another froome dominance, remember in 2013 the day after Ax les 3 domaines, the sky team really suffered and froome survived by hanging onto contador's wheel for grim death, I think we may see this again only with Nairo being the man to chase

I think Contador is feeling the effects of the Giro, Nibali is gone other than maybe a stage win later in the race

Right, I'll stick my neck out.

Someone will go out to try and get the Polka dot jersey - they'll be low enough on GC that they'll be let go and will win the stage

Froome and Quintana to drop most of the rest of the field on the final climb but Froome to mark Quintana until near the end and then gain a few seconds.

Nibali to lose more time, possibly deliberately, with a view to going for a stage win later in the race.

Or something completely different 🙂

[b]lunge[/b]

Bertie will try something that won't stick

... Is there anything more satisfying than watching Bertie attempt this (and fail)?

[img] [/img][

Needs a polkadot tie to go with the collar on that shirt!

Nibali to lose more time, possibly deliberately, with a view to going [s]for a stage win later in the race.[/s] [b]home[/b]

Ive been looking forward to this stage. Going to Saint Savin next September to try out some of these climbs with the Mrs...Bricking it! 😕

Prediction: Hesjedal's going to drop back for a bottle before the Tourmalet when his motor malfunctions and he blasts through the peleton at 60 picking up Mollema on the way and dragging him to the top of the GC.

lemonysam - quite possibly 🙂 Can't say I'm sad to see Astana getting stuffed.

^ 😀 @Lemonysam

FML, running out of data as they've turned the "customer" wifi off at work AND the router had a big pap at home and Sky (the doping ****s 😉 ) haven't sent me a new one yet!

So what is up with Contador then? Says he had a really bad day and couldn't breath properly. Unusual for him to struggle after a rest day too. Seemed effortlessly able to do anything at the Giro, but then not the same quality of opponents. Seemed to have the beating of Quintana recently too.

First day in the mountains has always been thought of as a tricky one as riders find their climbing legs. Maybe this is what Sky are somehow deliberately exploiting. I think in the 2013 Tour, Sky came out and blasted the first proper climbing stage and pretty much won it on that day too.

Predictions... umm... Purito seems keen on the polkadots but he might be too high on GC to be allowed to go on the break. Reckon it's going to be a lottery today as to who gets in the break so I predict it'll be one of the Lotto's 🙂

Dropped his inhaler...

He was complaining about his chest after one of the earlier stages too, I think it sounds like he has a bit of a bug. He also didn't get much support yesterday from what I saw, Rogers and Majka got blown out of the back when Movistar were pulling.

So, big question. Will Geraint Thomas have to bury himself and fall back in the GC, or will Sky now aim for another place on the GC podium. I only ask as there are some tasty betting odds for a top 3 finish.

Froome and Porte on the podium sounds reasonable. GT? I wouldn't expect so.

Portes 44 minutes down

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-mountain-ride-was-one-i-needed-but-should-not-have-surprised-20150715-gid0cj.html

Sounds a bit like Porte got to hang back in week 1, now he can take over from GT for support. Will be interesting to see how GT goes and the way it is at the moment one bad day might not send him that far down.

Indeed, have people not looked at the GC? Porte making up over 40 minutes on Tejay and Quintana, now that would raise an eyebrow or two!