Apart from Jumbo, every other team has looked weak... Sure there's an odd rider or two, but team wise, it's Jumbo or nothing it seems.
INEOS are looking OK but not amazing. Movistar are asleep, Astana, not doing as much as i'd thought. Mitchelton Scott, what's happened, they're asleep...
Assuming he recovers quickly, i can't see past Roglic.
they all look race rusty to me.
They'll end up doing the last week on Zwift.
(Tongue in cheek mode)
Jumbo Visma were very strong in the Dolphiny (and the few races before). Imagine that had been Ineos or Astana, aligned with the "little or no testing" comments above. What were they previously called... Rabosomething?
(/Tongue in cheek mode)
I've no idea for this year's TDF. I'd have picked Roglic before his crash. Dumoulin maybe? Pinot?
Maybe a semi-surprise winner, in the style of Geraint Thomas. Gets the jersey, hangs on, hangs on and just gets stronger over the two weeks (plus the Zwift week).
Is Roglic injured? Does that mean Dumoulin or Kruijswijk will be the leader at the tour? Or will they have 2, or even 3 leaders?
Are Ineos off pace? Is Froome bluffing? Is Bernal as good as last year? Should G have done the Classics this year?
Pinot, what can he do?
Bardet, same question.
Roglic - bit banged up, I reckom he'll be fine, same for Kruijswijk.
Dumoulin - probably not at 100% yet, won't be far off unless he crashes.
Ineos - I think part bluff part a massive WTF on their behalf as Jumbo did to them what they've done for years, lacking depth in the proper super domestiques now.
Pinot - near podium, if he stays on the bike and his knees hold out.
Bardet - Death or glory big mountain attack and win a stage or two.
Its those pesky Columbians you need to watch.
I'm so out of touch with what the racing calendar looks like now. Watched a couple of bits of the Dauphine but actually only found out who won this morning when I googled it (based on seeing this thread resurrected).
As a result I barely know who is riding for who never mind what their form is like. In some respects it's actually going to make the Tour a bit more interesting, I might feel like a complete newbie getting into it rather than thinking I already know the top three contenders!
Dare I ask, do we want the daily thread on Le Tour?
Working from home makes it very easy to do if there's a suitable demand!
As ever, I'd be supportive of that! Keep this one for general chat, with a no spoilers policy perhaps, and have daily spoiler loaded ones too!
Dare I ask, do we want the daily thread on Le Tour?
Working from home makes it very easy to do if there’s a suitable demand!
We certainly do want the daily thread - a summer classic!
Daily threads it is then.
Spoilers encouraged, they're for discussion of the days stage, and that will include live updates as a Direct Energie/Arkea-Samsic/Vital Concept rider goes off on yet another hopeless breakaway and Richie Porte falls off/get dropped on the first big mountain stage.
Pinot is giving the French national championships a miss. Resting for a bit, full focus on the Tour.
Stevious, I've asked teh modz to amend the title.
Edit - And lo, it was changed..!
Another vote for the @lunge daily TdF thread!
I'm genuinely wondering if they'll make it to Paris. Spain has just re-introduced more severe lockdown measures - if France does that mid-way through the race could it just result in stopping all racing and declaring the winner to be whoever was in yellow at the time? Would France do that as soon as a Frenchman was in yellow?! (post your conspiracy theory here...) 😉
Wonder how it might affect race tactics if the riders knew that the race had the potential to be cut short at any time and they couldn't do tactical "we'll wait until the first big mountain stage" or "we'll wait until the TT" stuff. Possibility that a brave move might net a rider yellow and then the whole race be called off the next day due to Covid and suddenly have some nobody domestique named as TdF winner...?
Wonder how it might affect race tactics if the riders knew that the race had the potential to be cut short at any time and they couldn’t do tactical “we’ll wait until the first big mountain stage” or “we’ll wait until the TT” stuff. Possibility that a brave move might net a rider yellow and then the whole race be called off the next day due to Covid and suddenly have some nobody domestique named as TdF winner…?
I was thinking the same. This year over any other, I'd want yellow as early as possible.
I guess that does lead to the question as to how many stages it needs to get through to be considered complete? 1st rest day? 2nd rest day?
I've put an each way bet on Pinot at 7/1.
Remember last year, it was only team tactics that lost him the lead, they should be a bit more clued up this year.
And, he said after the race yesterday, something like "my legs couldnt give any more today, but I'll get better"
Thanks for the NO SPOILER in the title CFH!
But now I'm going to make a prediction so hot it might as well be a spoiler:
Guilluame Martin (Cofidis) will win this year's TdF.
But now I’m going to make a prediction so hot it might as well be a spoiler:
Guilliam Martin (Cofidis) will win this year’s TdF.
Scorching hot 🔥
Tom Doumalin or Porte for the win. Richies wife was on Twitter the other day decrying the state of race safety. She’s right an’ all. If the organisers of races and the UCI don’t improve rider safety there won’t be anyone left to ride this years Tour.
If the organisers of races and the UCI don’t improve rider safety there won’t be anyone left to ride this years Tour.
I think it's a mix. Sure, the UCI will always get at least part of the blame for incidents - cars on course or that sprint finish - but I reckon the riders are completely rusty.
Most of them have had near zero racing, training camps, group riding, some have even been banned from riding outdoors for several weeks so they've all been sitting on a turbo trainer for the previous 4 months. As a result they've completely lost the ability to do close-quarter racing and technical riding.
They can't just make all the roads straight though. All the races have bends in, that's not the organisers fault.
I think the post about them being a bit rusty is on the mark too.
Aye nobody’s suggesting they make the roads straight. It’s the downhill finishes with hoardings poorly placed, it’s the masses of potholes and very poor road conditions, it’s the lack of protection at key points, and schlachmans crash was clearly in part due to the race organisers failing to keep traffic off the road. The Dauphine ended with the a rider protest over safety, but yeah it’s the riders being a bit rusty.
“ The richest man in Wallonie: the manufacturer of plastic poles. The poorest man in Wallonie: the guy responsible for road works. What the hell...”
Stijn Steels
I think it'll go to the penultimate day and the TT. Could be absolutely epic!
Did you see the spot where Evanepoel crashed, downhill, 90° bend onto a road that narrows with big brick walls that narrow to catch the rider withva big ****ing drop on the other side. A few straw bales and a net could have saved serious injury, its a lucky he survived.
How about some left of field picks for the Tdf podium.
Fulgsang is riding really well at the moment. Seems to be improving with age.
Tadej Pogacar is impressive but will need to up his game a bit.
George Bennett. Riding the best of his life at the moment. A top ten grand tour finisher in the past. Can he step up if the three big jumbo riders aren’t up to scratch due to injury or form? Long shot as he will be in the role of super domestique more than likely though.
Really hard to see past Roglic now, especially as Ineos are lacking the cohesiveness and strength in their mountain train. If Jumbo have out manoeuvred Ineos then it’s Roglic for the win. Would love to see Pinot take it though. Or Doumolin. Or Porte. With all the other crashes perhaps this will be the year he stays upright.
Roglic's Achilles heel does seem to be descending, whether it's skill thing or a no fear thing/over confidence thing (born out of his ski jumping past) or just like Porte has a habit of crashing I don't know. So other teams will push on the downs just to see.
The question is have Jumbo peaked too soon. Fuglsang has yet to show grand tour form over all 3 weeks, Roglicha won Vuelta butLeTour is a step up.
Agree Anagallis, whilst Roglic I suspect is the favourite, Le Tour is a different game, a game Ineos know very well.
One thing I've not seen mentioned is the absence of Nico Portal and the impact that'll have on Ineos. He's been the tactical genius behind all their wins bar Wiggo's under Sean Yates, and the lack of cohesion and organisation under Gabba and Knaven would be a concern.
Fulgsang is riding really well at the moment.
But he's doing the Giro I think.
Roglic’s Achilles heel does seem to be descending,
He won a stage of the Tour in 2018 by attacking on a descent.
He didn't do himself any favours thumping the barrier in 2019 Giro either
though he was on a team mates bike
Joker in the pack could be if we see the much-rumoured 'French national team' riding with/for each other...
One thing I’ve not seen mentioned is the absence of Nico Portal and the impact that’ll have on Ineos. He’s been the tactical genius behind all their wins bar Wiggo’s under Sean Yates, and the lack of cohesion and organisation under Gabba and Knaven would be a concern.
Depends who they have riding for them. Froome's participation seems to be the source of endless will-he, won't-he articles. But assuming for a minute that they take Thomas, Froome and Bernal that leaves a lot of possible internal rifts. Whether they're actually there or not or all in the minds of journalists desperate to find a "conflict" angle but having three potential "team leaders" has never worked well for any other team in the past. Same with trying to go for Green and Yellow - you end up splitting the team - half with your designated sprinter, half protecting the designated GC'er - and you get neither.
But assuming for a minute that they take Thomas, Froome and Bernal that leaves a lot of possible internal rifts
Which is down to the DS to sort out by banging some heads together. One reason Deceunik are so successful (especially in 1 day races) is that their many potential winners are able to park their egos and work for the best outcome for the team (unlike the Movistar trident). Something which Jumbo Visma now seem to have adopted.
The theory of a combined french effort isn't that wild but it would still be dependent on one rider being the agreed leader, so is that Pinot or Allaphilipe and what of all the others close to that level? The likes of Bardet riding for a competitor and not stage hunting? If I was Bardets DS (or sponsor!) I wouldn't go for that
I still don't think they'll take Froome, I just can't see it at all.
Bernal
Thomas
Geoghegan-Hart
Castroviejo
Sivikov
Kwiatkowski
Van Baarle
+1, likely Rowe or Amador
Bernal currently has a question mark over him due to injury, I've just seen an article suggesting Ineos could replace him with Carapaz.
I think Sivakov will be leader for the Vuelta, with Carapaz heading up the Giro team as reigning champ
The theory of a combined french effort isn’t that wild but it would still be dependent on one rider being the agreed leader, so is that Pinot or Allaphilipe and what of all the others close to that level? The likes of Bardet riding for a competitor and not stage hunting? If I was Bardets DS (or sponsor!) I wouldn’t go for that
The cooperation will only happen if/when stage or GC hopes are gone for others. As happened in the Dauphiné. Once they had nothing to lose, and Pinot had everything to gain, off they went.
Carapaz for Bernal due to injury makes sense. Thomas is clearly not on the kind of form that could win it, Froome I've mentioned above which leaves a very young Sivikov or Geoghegan-Hart
I agree with the concerns that Jumbo may have peaked a bit soon, also its not just the dauphine, WvA has been smashing 1 day results too so may not be quite so useful come the tour. However I guess hes used to recovering very quickly from past cx schedules.
I just can't see Ineos being that far off the pace, they were talking about having just done a big training block, surely a big part of their dauphine performance can be put down to fatigue.
Team Ineos for TDF . No Thomas, he’s going to lead at the Giro, no Froome, he’s leading the Vuelta.
Andrey Amador
Egan Bernal
Richard Carapaz
Jonathan Castroviejo
Michal Kwiatkowski
Luke Rowe
Pavel Sivakov
Dylan van Baarle
Video on the INEOS Twitter feed
Well thats big news!
At least I wont feel conflicted supporting Team Fracking! So I can support...Bahrain...no...Isre...nope....UAE...nope....floors floors they are always ok go Alaphilipe...must learn how to spell that!!
Who are what are AG2R or Mondials? Can I support Bardet?
Not sure I can go with Astana and all the baggage they have.
Dropping Froome was not much of a surprise but didn't expect G to miss out too
