BigDummy:
I don’t see Russia annexing Estonia…not anymore. Because of the way that Estonian country is split (30% Russian minority that were forcibly sent there in WWII to quell Estonian nationalism – They speak Russian, watch Russian media, go to Russian schools i.e. haven’t integrated into ESTONIAN society) that would be the ideal place to annex. However, Estonia’s inclusion into Nato has made that too big of a gamble. My guess is that if they were to make a territorial advancement, it would be a former eastern bloc country that does not belong to NATO. Ukraine, maybe.
Also, I believe your statement of US security. It’s been noted with countries like Czech Republic that once they join NATO, the membership costs are so high that they have to make sacrifices in the infrastructure of their own military which lessens it’s capacity and capability. Also in this respect, high defence spending is an interesting point. 70% of the budget of the US military is spent on wages. Seems pretty insane, doesn’t it? Finland as a country with a conscript army spends roughly 30% on wages. I’m not sure how much of the GDP US spends on their military, but I’m guessing that it’s a lot. OK, their army is probably the best in the world in terms of technology – but the quality of training in the average military base leaves a lot to be desired. I know that Finland’s defence budget is 1.3% of the GDP. There’s a great economic argument for national service.
My main deterrence argument is again, about Finland. If you consider that 80-90% of our males are trained as reserve soldiers (meaning they can operate and maintain a rifle, operate in small units, know the basics how to be a soldier) it basically means that any country coming to invade needs to prepare for a long and bitterly fought guerrilla war (and that’s IF they manage to occupy the country). In fact, this was one of the reasons that Stalin chose not to attack Finland for the third time…he knew that he couldn’t easily take over Finland. There’s a deterrence argument for a conscript army.
Finally, we need to consider the types of people that a conscript army will bring in. Everybody. You’ll have construction workers next to engineers. Doctors next bus drivers. The US military is going through a massive problem with recruitment because the army is seen as a last resort for people with no options. Which is why you’ve got mainly minorities from poor backgrounds joining and idiots who might struggle to get a high school degree. In a conscript army, everyone serves. This means that you get people of high intelligence in positions which require high levels of intelligence and people’s civil jobs are being used to the effect that will benefit the army – as well as the individual in question. I knew a neurosurgeon in the army – he was a recruit at the same time as me. After the initial training period he was immediately promoted to Lieutenant 2nd class and started working in the military hospital along with the other doctors. And that’s his wartime post.
