Utter madness – and then you think back to those days and it’s probably true as well.

True that more people will buy the book…

Is it known how effective JN.1 based vaccines are against XEC yet?

No numbers, but, “The campaign for autumn booster in the UK will start in October with an updated vaccine targeting the JN.1 variant, which XEC derives from, assuring a good level of protection against severe illness.” https://theconversation.com/xec-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-covid-variant-239125

President Biden announced the full $7.9bn drawdown ^^

I also have authorized $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority to ensure this authority does not expire, so that my Administration can fully utilize the funding appropriated by Congress to support the drawdown of U.S. equipment for Ukraine and then replenish U.S. stockpiles.
The Department of Defense is announcing $2.4 billion in security assistance through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative…(cont) https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

$5.5bn in Presidential Drawdown Authority is from current stock.

Interesting they feature the Americans who probably had the worst system [recumbant].

More aerodynamic :-)

It raises up on hydraulics to catch a tailwind. Maybe :)

I knew you lovely lot could explain the ins and outs. Fascinating.

But what tyres for…

Donald Trump has now realised that he’s messed up. He’s made space to meet President Zelenskiy in his busy diary…

945am at Trump Tower, it’ll be interesting to see if he keeps Zelenskiy waiting https://www.reuters.com/world/us/donald-trump-meet-zelenskiy-after-criticizing-ukrainian-leader-2024-09-27/

And now they’ve gone to Ukraine they will need to be replaced, which means orders, which means jobs.

The natural expiry/replacement cycle would happen anyway.

The bigger employment event is the acceleration in production, which wakes up slumbering production lines and knocks on to more production workers, machinery and service engineers, buildings and builders, the hospitality sector, and all of their suppliers, etc.

tomhoward+1

Not a developer that I’d go to, but personable enough.

Long wait for German windows again!!

I’m going against popular choice ^^ and say that I’ve hardly used mine.

It does precision, but that’s the only advantage that I found. The red grease that came with mine didn’t manage the winter commuting season before turning pink and emulsified (I don’t cycle if I’m likely to get a soaking although I do get caught out).

I’d put the money towards something else

Is it possible they have fission bombs?

The first nuclear weapons were fission bombs and were originally known as atom (A) bombs, so yes

Crag Hopper kiwis +1

Not sure which mine are, Pro II I think. Lightweight, dry quickly, anti-insect, sun-protection but not massively water-resistant (which is good for me, more breathable). 2 pairs for £90 on the Craghoppers website

I think that they’re part of Regatta now and made in PRC

And a final munitions post…

Republicans are seething that President Zelensky visited a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania

Penn is one of the swing states, so the visit from a state leader who wants tonnes of their output is a good thing for jobs and maybe Dem votes??

Donald Trump OTOH wants to stop US supply, which isn’t as positive for Penn https://www.reuters.com/world/top-us-republican-wants-ukrainian-ambassador-fired-over-zelenskiy-factory-visit-2024-09-25/

While we’re on the subject of munitions…

On Thursday, U.S. officials said, the White House intends to notify Congress it will move forward with the announcement of a $5.6 billion drawdown from U.S. weapons stocks. The contents of that package are still in flux, the officials said. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-prepares-8-billion-arms-aid-packages-zelenskiy-visit-sources-say-2024-09-25/

This is a huge drawdown if correct and is before the possibility of Congress stopping government funding before Christmas. President Biden is asking for a full funding bill to be passed before everyone leaves for elections and/or Christmas

The timing coincides with President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” to get Russia to the negotiating table that he’s presenting to President Biden this week

But how would the Ukrainian army know that they didn’t have any nuclear weapons stored there?

I don’t know whether Ukraine “knows”, but these are major depots for the supply of the frontline with Ukraine. Russia seems to be careless with the dispersal and storage of aircraft and munitions, but I doubt that extends to nuclear weapons.

The nuclear genie is one best kept within a small number of nations because it gives you power; power that Russia is capitalising on with its sabre-rattling. One danger with this war is that non-nuclear nations see that the west isn’t taking a hardline with a nuclear nation and that increases the desire to join the nuclear club.

Russia won’t want to relinquish the power dynamic by allowing non-nuclear nations to access nuclear weapons from a huge, relatively insecure depot with thousands of movements. Those weapons will be in smaller, more secure depots well away from “bunker-busting” bombs that could end the strategic ace card.

The Toropets site was renovated in 2018 and any movement of nuclear material to either facilitate the works or to restock should have been apparent.

Cross with BUTR, who knows about this stuff, my post is pure speculation :)

I’ve just finished the Zelensky Story on BBC. Three-parter from pre-president to 2024, worth watching IMHO, available on i-player

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m001zps2/the-zelensky-story

Style of the house, existing doors, etc?

5lab +1

Double glazing with decent glass is about the same insulation value as an uninsulated cavity wall. Your empty cavity wall is probably better than the original door

You could try a pourable product like Perlite or the glass beads above^^, but that assumes that it won’t migrate sideways.

And it’s Barnier. Having got the UK to sign away its soul in the withdrawal agreement Michel Barnier now has the far trickier task of herding 65 million frogs. He’ll have to swap his brexit ‘no can do’ to ‘yes we can’ if he’s to survive longer than Edith Cresson.

Isn’t that the truth :) His government has been announced

However, showing the government’s fragility, the prestigious job of finance minister was given to a little-known 33 year-old, Antoine Armand of Macron’s party, having been turned down by more senior politicians. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-gets-new-government-after-weeks-uncertainty-2024-09-21/

Refused by those older and wiser??

Despite  the losses the Russian army still has 1.5 million men which is 500 000 more than at the start of the war.

https://www.dna.fr/defense-guerre-conflit/2024/09/21/en-russie-l-armee-grossit-les-anti-guerre-resistent.

It’s nearer to 1.3mn, against Ukraine’s 0.9mn. Around 50%ish greater https://www.statista.com/statistics/264443/the-worlds-largest-armies-based-on-active-force-level/

Russia only decided on the 1.5mn figure earlier this week https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-orders-russian-army-expand-war-ukraine-rcna171429

Yesterday’s ISW update reported that Russia is showing signs of recruitment problems

Three sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) told Bloomberg in August 2024 that the Russian military has struggled to recruit enough people to replace increasing Russian manpower losses throughout the war, and one individual told Bloomberg that Russian regions, on average, fell short of their recruitment quotas by about one-third. Medvedev claimed in July 2024 that the MoD’s average daily recruitment rate for kontraktniki was 1,000 people, and an unnamed Western official estimated in August 2024 that Russian forces were suffering on average roughly 1,000 casualties per day, presumably throughout the frontline in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, during an interview with UK outlet Independent. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2024

Is this numbers killed?

They haven’t run out of men and have lost fewer than 10% even on the higher estimated losses. It’s not a lack of canon fodder that will stop them.

Hors de combat will be several times that number

Partial repointing job?

As above, have a look at the survey to see if this was picked up previously.

Difficult to see but some of the bricks look a bit shaled too https://www.turnbullmasonry.com/common-causes-spalling-bricks-fix-crumbling-masonry/

Take a careful look at the dormer windows (guess from upper window), they can be an expensive fix (take some binoculars :) )

The baguette in a cage gave the game away; bread in captivity apparently

Is there anything else I need to do? Police report at Newcastle / Madrid?

There is (or was) an agreement that the police at the destination airport take any crime reports, online is quickest https://www.northumbria.police.uk/police-forces/northumbria-police/areas/campaigns/campaigns/digital-contact/

Travel insurance should cover you, especially if work is paying for it :)

That’s my understanding.

IANAE, I worked in a school with them, my knowledge is second-hand from annual asbestos inspections

There are three possible issues with a floor:

Asbestos containing floor tiles (sometimes known as Marley tiles) are common in 30+ year old properties, including homes, schools, hospitals, etc. and are generally considered low risk
Asbestos containing paper backing
Asbestos containing adhesive

Ask the asbestos analysis company about sampling methods, especially if you suspect paper backing. The tiles and the adhesive tend to retain fibres unless they are crumbling. The paper (if present) is probably the greatest risk because it sheds fibres more easily and is notifiable work.

Quick resurrection for owners of battery packs that may pose a fire risk due to a manufacturing defect:

Anker 334 MagGo Battery (PowerCore 10K), Anker Power Bank and Anker MagGo Power Bank

https://www.anker.com/a1642-a1647-a1652-recall

Ask to see their survey, land registry copies, searches, etc and see if the jobs were done, do the visible boundaries match, etc

Look for stickers on the boiler (additive date, serial numbers that indicate age, etc), consumer unit and dates on uPVC inside the opening lights. Ask for any service records

Do a local authority building regs and planning permission check. Free and available online, shows FENSA, electricity and boiler installations if reasonably modern

Swap phone numbers. Saves messing around with estate agents to answer simple questions

Apologies for total thread drift, but those in Scotland over the next few months (until 26th Jan) might find this Edinburgh Art Festival exhibition about Cold War Scotland interesting. https://theconversation.com/cold-war-scotland-show-reveals-impact-of-conflict-on-scottish-politics-culture-and-memory-238636

[/thread drift]

The demographic thing will take decades to play out. It has millions of young men it can call upon and they have the ruthlessness and authoritarianism to do just that.

I’m not using it in the long-term sense, although Russia does have problems there as well. I’m using it in the sense that men of fighting age are also men of working age. Occupational exemptions from mobilisation include Russian Federation citizens working in the “military-industrial complex”, IT, financial sector and certain media workers

Plumbers, electricians, service engineers, etc.can be called upon to fight and civilian infrastructure will begin to creak

Traditionally the Russian military has done agricultural work to feed itself in peacetime. Who is feeding Russia now that agricultural workers are also mobilised? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/farmers-among-russians-drafted-into-military-putin-says-2022-09-27/

Sanctions comments^^ +1

The geo-politics of sanctions is interesting too. Russia is having to tread a fine line in certain relationships, e.g. with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran.

Russia is exporting oil and gas to Azerbaijan for domestic use, which allows Azerbaijan to export its own “sweet” grade oil. To facilitate the deal Russia withdrew its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh early, allowing Azerbaijan full control of the Armenian territory, which led to Armenia leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

Russians consider that Azerbaijan favours Ukraine and it’s in the public domain that Azerbaijan has supplied materiel to Ukraine

Russia also uses Azerbaijan’s overland routes to trade with Iran. Azerbaijan and Iran are both majority Shia countries but don’t get on, probably because Azerbaijan is western and Israel-oriented, although relations have been improving in the last year.

The Zangezur corridor was agreed between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, which ticked Iran off because their trade route would be bypassed… and so it goes on.

DazH is correct, sanctions are being circumvented, but it’s hard work and this is only one example :)

putin is emboldened and it feels like we are playing catch-up.

I know what you mean, but I can’t see a country with a raft of economic and now demographic issues being able to continue a land war indefinitely.

Russia’s navy and air force have taken a hit, but the bulk of it is still available. Space, cyber and hybrid warfare are also strong possibilities for future campaigns.

The west has sat back since 2000, while Russia and China have developed their military greatly under consistent leadership over the last decade or two. The technology given to Iran and N.Korea in exchange for their weapons concerns me

November will be very interesting and telling

Yes

Against what though?

Russia could hypothetically bring some allies to the party, but Ukraine has proved that we do have enough weapons to fight them even at a numerical disadvantage. It’s hard to imagine the Ukraine invasion going on more than a few days if it had been against a NATO country.

The problem isn’t fighting to a standstill, it’s regaining lost ground. You can’t afford a protracted war for a variety of practical and economic reasons and you need the materiel to avoid this

UK-centric, but it’s quite topical just now and the short answer is give it six to nine months and Lord George Robertson will report on the UK’s situation https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-root-and-branch-review-of-uk-armed-forces

In the meantime there are holes identified that can’t be left for twelve months or more, including huge budget problems within the UK. These should have been addressed years ago https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uk-defence-spending-decisions-cant-wait-strategic-defence-review

We don’t have enough people in our forces and we don’t have the basic kit to equip a fully-resourced UK military, especially in the event of war when we’d need to mobilise reserves and possibly the civilian population

Since 2000, the number of fully trained personnel across all forces has fallen by 32%, with the Army seeing a fall of about 28%, the Royal Navy/Marines 26% and the RAF 45% https://fullfact.org/news/size-of-armed-forces-pre-election-briefing/

One lesson from Ukraine is the difficulty in replacing modern ultra-tech items quickly, especially when everyone is suddenly trying to get the same chipsets and other components. Even something as basic as explosive is hard to find currently, so we needed to have been doing something years ago, rather than panicking now about what might happen in November

We live under the shelter of US largesse, but it’s possible that’ll be gone next year if Trump wins and lives up to some of his declarations. Ukraine will be the first to suffer, followed by Moldova and possibly elsewhere in Europe. We can’t afford that

Optics

Yep, he had some of them too

Republican senators defeated a Dem Party bill that would make fertility treatment more accessible through insurance and protect rights.

Donald supported the policy. I’m guessing that he’s seen the way the wind might blow with the family vote, but was let down by his party

Wow! So we fire some misslles at Russia because otherwise they’ll cost us money if we don’t?

We supply them for the self-defence of a sovereign country that has been invaded. An invasion that’s in contravention of multiple international agreements

Britain just doesnt seem to do this, economies of scale suggest that we should probably be aligning with Europe on some sort of similar act,, but…. EU (army) bad etc

There are two issues here, a European “army” and European defence procurement.

Traditionally, the “army” has been enshrined in NATO and there hasn’t been the political imperative for another layer of complexity. There have been deviations along the way and Russian involvement (seconded by erstwhile EU supporters) largely discredited the idea for most nations.

European defence production wound down following the cold war and, with the exception of France as second largest producer of weapons in the world (sounds impressive but only accounts for 11% of world sales), has never needed to be much more than a supplier of technologically-outdated weapons to replace outdated and expired weapons.

Western politicians should have paid more heed to the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Donbas regions but are now learning the lesson that the combined west can’t support the needs of one country fully, never mind a continent.

“EU-bad” isn’t the issue. The European Defence Industrial Programme is only now at the consultation stage and Kier Starmer needs to leverage the UK’s strong European defence industry co-operation and get involved https://commission.europa.eu/news/first-ever-european-defence-industrial-strategy-enhance-europes-readiness-and-security-2024-03-05_en

Do the right repair, not a bodge.

This.

Are you sure that it isn’t a feature meant to get you into the outside lane of a motorway and keep you there?

Headlamp flash falls more naturally to hand as well

Attacking Moscow with missiles will strengthen Putin not weaken him

Ukraine has attacked military-connected installations in the Moscow region, e.g. Chkalovsky Air Base 20 miles from the City.

Ukraine targeted the Russian capital on Tuesday in its biggest drone attack so far, killing at least one and wrecking dozens of homes in the Moscow region and forcing around 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow.
Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, said it had destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian attack drones as they swarmed over the Moscow region,

At least one person was killed near Moscow, Russian authorities said.

“There is no way that night time strikes on residential neighbourhoods can be associated with military action,” said Peskov. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says-2024-09-09/

The Moscow region is more than 18,000 sq.miles. Wales is less than half that

I’ve included Peskov’s statement for its obvious value. The report is entirely Russian comment, “There was no immediate comment from Ukraine about Tuesday’s attacks. Both sides deny targeting civilians.”

..

I suppose what I’m talking about is the clamour on here for more fighting, more bombs, more missiles etc being dropped on Russia. That’s only going to go in one direction

I suppose that’s why the thread exists; to make the point that this war won’t end suddenly (on either side) in a single event. Those sorts of strategic victories haven’t existed since kings rode into battle and some bloke called Richard III died in a field.

The only solution to this geopolitical cluster**** is negotiations, and no one – especially on this thread – seems interested in doing that. Anyone who suggests de-escalation or negotiations is dismissed and insulted as an appeaser.

The war is in my view at a tipping point where both sides can be convinced to take part in meaningful negotiation. At the moment Russia rarely acknowledges that it’s at war with Ukraine, it’s all about NATO. Until that situation changes and Russia is prepared to talk to Ukraine then you’re whistling in the wind and de-escalation on one side will lead to further escalation on the other.

This is not the 1930s, there is a huge difference between this situation and that one (the involvement of nuclear weapons for a start), so you cannot compare the two and draw the same conclusions. Seems pretty obvious to me that the solution does not lie in more military escalation, and IMO the 1930s appeasement comparisons are leading us ever closer to disaster.

A better parallel is WW2. Germany’s industrial war machine peaked in 1944, despite the Allies bombing the heck out of the German war machine, including well-known raids such as the “dam-busters” in 1943.

What this 1944 industrial peak doesn’t tell you is what would have happened without the bombing. Would the annual industrial peaks until 1944 have been greater, would there have been an even greater peak in 1945 and beyond? How long would WW2 have continued?

We’ll never know, but against the simple logic of an industrial peak, the war in Europe ended in May 1945. A few weeks after that a nuclear weapon ended the war with Japan.

Clearly, it wasn’t just about industry. Despite peaking, industry couldn’t supply the frontline sufficiently to make up for the losses there, which is the tipping point in Ukraine that I’m thinking about.

De-escalation for the sovereign nation of Ukraine to maintain its internationally agreed borders is the wrong thing now and won’t bring this war to an early conclusion in negotiation

This mass drive and need on here for escalation is disturbing.
It’s always been like this on this thread. Armchair generals fantasising about WW3. It’s terrifying and depressing in equal measure.

WW3 is exactly what people don’t want and is what a balanced political approach is about.

Sure, there will be questions about whether the balance is correct in the face of Russia escalating by getting more and more weapons from Iran, N.Korea and others.

I’d like to think that for the most part the thread is balanced and thoughtful, but I don’t think that (m)any are fantasising about WW3