So, about 50 (or more) pages ago my predication was that TM’s deal would squeak through, primarily because Parliament is too afraid of No Deal.

What a ride it’s been since that first vote, but nothing has changed!

The votes last night indicate that Parliament is more willing to a support ‘a deal’ than any alternative. As TM’s deal is the only one in town, it seems to me that Parliament will fall in to line at the 11th hour, simply to avoid no deal.

I now think TM has known this all along. She has ridden every storm in the single minded belief that if it gets down to the wire, Parliament will have to support ‘her’ deal. So, she’s run down the clock at every opportunity to increase the pressure on Parliament.

The Spanish 1.4T petrol is not VAG’s best engine for long term reliability; the German built 1.6 or Czech 1.2 are better bets for the long term user. Fine if you’re only likely to keep it 2-3 years at that age/mileage.

I think the current generation 1.4 TSI (the belt driven version, not the older chain drive) are all produced in the Czech Republic.

The chain (and to lesser extent high EGT) were the main problems with the old design. The new unit is far better engine.

I had one in a 2016 Golf (125 Ps, I think). It was great. A combined 35 mpg without trying and 50 mpg on the motorway.

Isn’t car leasing the next sub prime collapse? When the economy next takes a dive.

No. It’s really not.

Mazda CX-5 Sport Nav?

We’ve got one of last of the old model (registered March 2017). The new version is basically the same car with slightly better styling and an improved infotainment system.

I think ours is a great car, it handles so much better than it should for its size. It has bags of space front and back and we can comfortable fit a weeks luggage for 2 adults and 2 kids in the boot.

Spec is good with electric memory leather interior, LED headlights and BOSE sound. They appear quite expensive, but if you spec a VW Tiguan up with the equivalent kit, they look better value.

Mazda is far from a posh brand but the cabin feels premium. The big caveat is that nearly 2 years in to ownership and a few annoying rattles have started to creep in, clearly the quality of materials is not up to the standards of German premium marques. Maybe the new version has rectified this?

If money were no object, I’d probably for a Q5 or XC60 though.

Blue smoke or white smoke?

What year, engine and mileage?

Tell the lazy, ignorant bigoted **** to look it up for themselves. The cost to the NHS from treating non-UK residents is 0.3% of its total budget.

All the information anyone could possibly want on the cost/impact to the UK from imigration is already collated and reported. It’s **** all, in fact, it’s a net benefit. This was all in the public domain pre-referendum and discuss ad-nauseam post-referendum!

Pandering to morons will not change their deep seated beliefs. They’ll just reference a new load of bollocks to justify their prejudice.

Sooooo…

May survives today’s vote. Then she goes back to Brussels and says ‘help’. The EU asks ‘how can we help’ and May basically asks for nothing new.

So what happens on Monday?

Parliament is paralysed in a feedback loop. The clock keeps running down and we inch closer to the abyss.

May will not resign. The party will not oust her. There will not be a GE. Tories will not call a 2nd ref or revoke A50. There is no plausible alternative ‘deal’ that a majority of Parliament will support.

Honestly, someone please explain how this ends in anything other than no deal?

Skimmed the other responses, but be aware that if you wish to get out of a lease mid-term, you will have to pay off a percentage of the outstanding payment. With VWFS, this is 55% of the outstanding amount.

At the other end, if you wish to extend the term, there may be limitations e.g. VWFS will allow upto an extra 6 months leasing at the existing payment on a rolling monthly basis. However, extending beyond this is effectively a new agreement and may not be possible or subject to different payment terms (that could be higher or lower).

Lots of Men recognising these behaviours in themselves and getting very upset that the inanimate object they thought was their friend is judging them.

Pricier, but easier to apply:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Car-Interior-Cleaning-Products/Nextzett-91480615-Rubber-Stick-White/B004B8GTQG/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1547474230&sr=8-1&keywords=gummi-pflege

6/10.

Way better effort than ‘How It Ends’ (also on Netflix). That really is terrible.

Over what distance? Is this just your ‘popping out for a run’ pace or your PB pace?

I run at anything between 4:30/km and 6:00/km, depending on the distance and purpose of the run.

At my running club, I would say I’m fairly average for the male runners.

how much are we going to charge EU nationals for their VISA exemptions?

I’m really, really no Corbynist but I think that Labours supposed strength in this situation is overstated. Yes, this government is a **** shambles, but Labour are not exactly riding high in the opinion polls. Whilst Corybn is no Svengali, he’s not actually responsible for Labour being in this position. There were several years of shite Labour leadership before he took the reigns.

For Labour to make a move, the Tory’s need to not just be on the ropes, they need to be flat on the canvas. If things carry on, that should happen early in the New Year.

😂

And in the time it took me to write that, looks like all change again!

Christ, even Armando Ianucci couldn’t have thought this up!

Lots of different scenarios being bounced around. What are our predictions then?

From where I sit, I think the following could play out (in most to least likely):

1) May loses vote but clings on to power. Lots of Parliamentary shennanigans resulting in an extension to A50, based mostly on fudge. EU will approve as the only alternative is no deal. After that, who knows? 2 more years of can-kicking. May be another GE and 2nd Referendum?

2) May loses vote and says that parliament has decided that no deal is better than her deal.

In the ensuing chaos of scenario 2 all sorts could happen, including us actually leaving with no deal.

I still think no deal is more likely than no Brexit. Sadly, I really think our best hope is to extend A50 and keep kicking the can until 2nd referendum and hope we get a monster turn out and convincing majority vote remain.

Fascinating how fast it changes though. Only a week or so ago, I thought May’s deal would squeak through.

A masterclass in whataboutery

Is that in reference to Lammy’s Speech?

USA law is one of the few that claims to cover the whole world. Most countries the law stops at the border!

Err, does it? Or do you mean that they apply their regulations to manufacturers/products from other countries if they are destined for the US market? If it’s the latter, then you’ll find lots other countries/blocs do the same!

I once sent back a crab salad because the crab tasted odd. I’m struggling to think of another instance.

Steak is seldom cooked properly in ‘normal’ pubs/restaurants. I’d have a higher expectation at an independent establishment who claimed to specialise in steaks (I don’t mean Beafeater!).

consider this quite plausible scenario

I actually think the scenario of no deal, no extension, no 2nd referendum has an uncomfortably high probability. We set on that trajectory some months ago.

Im not certain that this would result in civil unrest. I still think there’s too much ‘meh’ or ‘it’ll be alright’ prevelant in public opinion.

At that point, the Government need not take any action and we would simply fall out of the EU.

The problem I see with revoking A50 is that it would require near unanimous support within Parliament to get through fast enough. I don’t think that has a high probability.

What makes you say that?

I don’t believe there’s a Parliamentary majority with the minerals to revoke A50 without the direct ‘will of the people’.

A50 could only be revoked if it were the result of a second referendum. Parliament would not take that decision off its own back.

To get there, there first needs to be a second referendum and then one of the options needs to actually be ‘remain’.

In spite of the overwhelming sensibility of that outcome, from where we are today the probability of reaching it still seems very, very small. Still, Christmas is a time for miracles…

Australia. , Canada , New <span class=”skimlinks-unlinked”>Zealand.and</span> to a certain extent the U.S.

Is this remark pro leave or remain?

Apart from their geography (or geology), what is there to aspire to socially, politically or economically about these nations?

The ‘gammons’ as you call them, as in white working or non-working class people living outside the South East who have neither cash or property and who eke out an existence from a combination of benefits, poorly paid insecure jobs and whatever other means they have at their disposal, have the view that they don’t have a lot to lose.

Whilst the people you describe may form a subset of the Gammon population, their socio-economic status is not its definition. They can just as easily be middle-class, property owners or the landed gentry.

Sadly those opinion polls haven’t really proved to be worth much in recent years

People will only rally behind a cause it if offers them something. The majority don’t know/care what leave really means – many who agree it’ll be worse than remain still don’t think that it will really matter to them. Combine this ignorance with a fundamental psychological inability of humans to recognise and correct bad decisions and I just can’t see enough people wanting to reverse A50 in the next 4 months.

Maybe in 5-10 years, if Leave really is a **** catastrophe.

My belief is that the majority just want Brexit done. It’s old news.

As much as I want to Remain, it must be based on a voted majority, but that vote ain’t happening this side of the 29th March 2019.

If Brexit is seen to be called off on a technicality with no direct mandate from ‘the people’ I fear that would be more damaging in the long-term than Leaving.

The majority of the public will just view it as political chicanery. They won’t really care about its implications.

What difference will the ECJ judgement make? The EU27 would wave through any request to rescind A50. The will to do so is not there in any kind of majority, not within Parliament nor the general public (at least not those who get off their fat arses and vote).

Nobody is presenting remain as a realistic alternative. May and other politicians are only talking about the possibility of no Brexit to bait the gammons. Think of it as saying that a bad deal is better than no Brexit.

I still think the potential for no deal is uncomfortably high, but the ‘deal’ seems more likely. I no longer hold any hope of remaining.

This ‘deal’s’ going all the way. When it comes down to it, the self-serving MP’s will be too scared to force a no deal. There is simply not enough momentum behind a referendum.

The ‘people’ are, frankly, sick of Brexit. Remoaners are only a slightly bigger minority than the rabid gammons. The majority of the voting public just don’t care any more.

That’s global revenue, only their U.K. revenue could sensibly be used to compare to U.K. GDP.

Unless you want to look at the size of AZ relative to global GDP?

Wait, AZ contribute 1% of GDP?

What is U.K. GDP, £2trillion?

I think you need to check your sums!

Raab is a ****. He knew what the job was when he agreed to be Brexit Secretary, he knew what every word of the 585 pages said (although i suspect he doesn’t understand what some of those words mean).

IMO, to quit now is a gross dereliction of duty. He may dress it up behind a faux ideology (as they all do), but it’s nothing more than a calculated self-serving maneuver.

Do they still shoot soldiers for abandoning their post? Cowardice in the face of the enemy! Don’t the Gammons still think that way? It’s odd how perceptions differ. He’s probably a hero to the arch-leavers, I just think he’s pathetic.

At this rate there’s going to be no one left to hand letters to the 1922 comittee

None of them are resigning as MP’s, just their posts within the Government. Their salaries and pensions are safe, it’s just political grandstanding.

View it cynically as minor players in Government seizing an opportunity to get headlines and position themselves for higher profile posts under a future leadership/further reshuffle aimed at appeasing the naysayers.

On the subject of Pharma, regarding QA/QC in the UK, post-Brexit. I don’t beleive it’s dead.

Companies simply cannot knee-jerk and the building the EU capacity takes time. I beleive we will see companies willing to take the short term hit on some duplication of release as long-term there will be mutual recognition.

And just to illustrate that ****wittery is not restricted to just the Tories, the Shadow Chancellor is claiming Labour would ‘fairly quickly’ negotiate a deal from this position.

Apart from their stupidity, the other major flaw with Politicians is their belief they must only say what the electorate wants to hear. Brexit was never, is not and never will be easy.

Due Diligence is something you do to inform a decision. A50 has been invoked. We should have done the negotiating before triggering the process.

Sadly, Poiticians were in charge of that decision and as they demonstrate on an almost daily basis, they don’t have a **** clue what they’re doing. The terrifiying part is that their incompetence appears to completely unconscious – they believe they know what to do!

and it looks like Astra Zeneca have pulled the plug, at least for now.

Not news. Simply reaffirming position taken last year regarding manufacturing cap ex. Their new R&D site in Cambridge continues to be developed.

Children all under 4? Butlins is the correct answer!