Christ alive, such lazy thinking.

I’m not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn’t it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?

The world’s largest tyre maker is Lego, making more than 50% more tyres than any other manufacturer

Although I imagine, if you follow WTO rules on what constitutes a tyre, this will turn out to be a fake fact.

The ultimate joke.
A Labour Party with a titled leader.
Why not just call themselves Tory-Lite?

A lot of labour party leaders receive peerages on retirement. I think Michael Foot turned his down, but Neil Kinnock, Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee all had titles (as does David Steel and Paddy Ashdown)

Keir Starmer has just got one earlier, and for doing something other than being a politician.

Hasn’t there been a one off adjustment applied to do with reporting deaths outside hospitals? Or did I just make that up?

I though the adjustment was 40 extra, based on death certificates, but I may have mis-read.

Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?

393 was on the BBC at 15.18 so probably legit.

That worldometer site is stating 400 deaths.

If you have been “hoist by your own petard” You have been strapped across a wide mouthed short barreled cannon and blown to bits

Naaa. A petard was a small bomb or hand grenade. it means the thing has gone off in your face.

You’re confusing it with being blown from a cannon which (I think) was a punishment originating in the Sikh army and adopted by the East India company as it was suitable gruesome.

affect/effect

I don’t like the way iconic is now used to just mean well known/easily recognised. Seems like the waste of a good word.

A “mate of a mate” says he has been furloughed but is still working. Apparently it will be great for his company’s cash flow.

I hope that was just a story, because too much of that will **** it up for everyone.

You are assuming that, in the future, there will be people with the free time and enough knowledge to write history.

That in itself is quite optimistic.

Any NHS/Care workers who have had it can deal with people with no risk while those that haven’t can remain cautious

That’s assuming that once you’ve had it your are immune to catching it again – has that been confirmed yet?

I thought that’s why people were casting doubt on the herd immunity theory.

Does shower gel contain the right ingredients to break down the CV and be effective as a handwash?

The main ingredients on the two random bottles I checked look more or less the same. Liquid soap will be different to bar soap and the government doesn’t specify which, so I imagine its all good.

That is why WHO advocates widespread testing,

I’m struggling to understand this.

The current test only tells you if you have it now, or not. It can’t tell you if you have had it. And if you haven’t got it now it doesn’t mean you won’t get it next week.

So say you do 60k tests and 20k are positive.

I can understand that knowing you have 20k current cases is useful.

But the 40k negative seems a bit meaningless. It doesn’t mean these people are safe and not going to get it in future. Is there any use to know the number of negative tests?

Did you play the bad guy in American Flyers?

(not the Russian with the beard, the American one)

Seeing the neighbours carried out in a box may do the trick.

That’s the point. Unless you know somebody who dies of it, or see pictures of bodies piled up in the morgues, its going to loose it sense of urgency. Especially if you’ve also just lost your livelihood and you’re 25 years old.

If all the downsides that directly affect you are a result of social distancing, not a result of the virus itself, you’ll start to wonder why all the fuss. That’s just what people are like.

Sky are reporting gov advisors are saying social distancing is going to be in place for most of a year.

I can’t see it working properly for that long unless you can keep everyone shit scared. Eventually people will just go back to their old ways.

Mrs SWSD just texted to say her primary school will be staying open through the Easter holidays, so she’ll be there doing extra classes for the kids that need to be in school.

Meanwhile I’m sat on my arse fiddling with stuff that really can’t be progressed until this is all is over.

“What did you do in the great Coronavirus outbreak grandad?”

“I made sure my spreadsheets balanced really, really well”.

If a vaccine does become available, the whole world will be queing for it. Might shut the anti-vaxers up.

Mrs SWSD has had an almost full class of 9 year olds all week.

Some of them were a bit worried, but they had a proper Corona virius lesson – this is what it is, this is what it does, this what “vulnerable” means and this is what you can do to help. They all seem very sensible about it, as are their parents – (and it the first time she’s ever seen 9 year old boys want to wash their hands).

I can see a time when they send kids home and run small classes for key workers kids.

Mrs SWSD is actually looking forward to this (if it happens) – You can get away from the curriculum and all the shite box ticking and do some fun teaching instead.

Probably not. Unless the advice changes by then.

The police are stopping and charging joggers and cyclists. You are allowed out to walk dogs.

Seems a bit odd. Unless dog owners can transmit the virus.

@tomd
please point out what is untrue in my post, objective or not?

trust a government who ignored all warnings & pushed through austerity

This government hasn’t pushed through austerity. It seems to be attempting the opposite.

The problem is that if you don’t know you have had it you will be keeping away from others (elderly loved ones),

Surely if you have any flu like symptoms you should keep away from vulnerable people until the symptoms have passed? Doesn’t matter if it Covid-19 or not – they’re still vulnerable.

but if I had COVID-19 then how would I know, and how do I know how long I needed to isolate for?

Sir whatsisname at the press conference yesterday said the evidence points to the fevery coughy phase being when the infection is passed on. This last about a week hence the government’s new advice on self isolation.

In the absence of any other official advice, I would follow that.

The government’s getting a lot of flack for being a “outlier”. If, as has been claimed, they were being cynical bastards, or really didn’t have a clue, they might as well have just done the same as everywhere and avoided the criticisms.

Also, as has been pointed out above, individuals and organisations are already taking a lot of action to slow the spread. All of their own free will and without the need for police roadblocks or troops on the street. The most effective measures will be carried out because individuals think its the right thing to do, not because somebody in authority tells them to.

Shut down the country and people will rebel.

Introduce a lot of complex and onerous instructions and people will ignore them

Introduce a few simple guidelines that are easy to follow and most people will follow them.

If you want people to do something you have to keep it simple.

that chap on he news conference just now – 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases.

Kids aren’t stupid. They know it’s fantasy,

That’s not a problem with the game, it’s a parenting issue. Fortnite is PEGI 12 for a start, they shouldn’t be playing it at all..

So do kids understand it fantasy or not?

Growing up I was exposed to a lot of racist, sexist and homophobic attitudes on TV. I’m pretty sure it affected me in a positive way, because I recognised that those people were unpleasant shits

I’m sorry I’m not as perceptive as you and I sorry you think I’m easily influenced and therefore an unpleasant shit. Or I could just call “bullshit” on your holier than thou attitude.

The fundamental thing you have to understand about this is, it’s abject bollocks.
Kids aren’t stupid. They know it’s fantasy,

Have you taught many 9 years old that stay up till 9 or 10 playing fortnite? And then wonder why what they do to their friends in Fortnite can’t be done for real in the playground?

When I was growing up it was television rotting kids’ minds

Growing up I was exposed to a lot of racist, sexist and homophobic attitudes on TV. I’m pretty sure it affected me in a negative way.

How are they any different to bows and arrows?

Slight difference – in the UK it is specifically illegal to kill an animal with a bow or crossbow, so they are strictly target only. Air rifles can be dual use.

Ultimately guns are for killing and glorifying it

Or guns are for placing a projectile on a target at a distance. That can require an immense amount of skill.

I think perhaps the OP doesn’t realise the pleasure that people get from good marksmanship, without any desire to kill anything.

If you were PM you could definitely reduce the number of old people who die from flu every year by ploughing more money into the NHS

This winter, the govt. provided the free flu jab to all UK primary school children for the first time. Primary age school children don’t tend to die from flu, but their grandparents do and school kids do tend to be “super spreaders”.

Somebody must have done the numbers and thought this was a worthwhile cost. Deaths from normal flu do appear to be low this year, so perhaps it had an effect.

I imagine the same people that advised on the free flu jab are the same people advising on what to do about Covid-19. Its not just Boris making it up as he goes along.

There might be somewhere nice to stay in Overton or Whitchurch, which are just along the valley from Laverstoke where the distillery us.

They are all a pain in the arse to maintain, most especially the jaggy bastard hawthorn.

But surely you must enjoy standing back and contemplating a really neatly trimmed bush?

Rather than confiders why not go for a proper native hedge – Yew, holly, hawthorn, beech, box etc.

Some of my neighbours have mixed hedging, it looks great and its good for the wildlife. Only trouble is you may have to wait 20 years to get the full effect!

“But, to conclude, I say and maintain, that of all torcheculs, arsewisps,
bumfodders, tail-napkins, bunghole cleansers, and wipe-breeches, there is
none in the world comparable to the neck of a goose, that is well downed,
if you hold her head betwixt your legs. And believe me therein upon mine
honour, for you will thereby feel in your nockhole a most wonderful
pleasure, both in regard of the softness of the said down and of the
temporate heat of the goose, which is easily communicated to the bum-gut
and the rest of the inwards, in so far as to come even to the regions of
the heart and brains.

(François Rabelais – Gargantua and Pantagruel)

I assume members of the aristocracy (or close friends of the Queen) will be able to take advantage of any available swans’ necks.

Here’s the latest flu figures from Public Health England

The latest Public Health England (PHE) report published at 2pm on 30 January 2020, shows that seasonal flu continues to circulate across the UK, although activity is decreasing.

Over the last week, GP consultations with flu-like illness decreased from 10.3 per 100,000 to 9.0 per 100,000 and continue to stay below baseline levels.

Flu hospitalisation and intensive care admission rates also decreased from 1.39 per 100,000 to 1.05 per 100,000 and 0.13 per 100,000 to 0.10 per 100,000 respectively – suggesting flu is having a low impact on hospital admissions as well as intensive care unit and high dependency unit admissions.

The report also shows that in week 4, 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death had been seen overall in England.

Currently, 71.6% of adults over 65, 43.1% of adults with a long-term health condition, 42.8% of pregnant women, 41.8% of 3-year-olds and 41.1% of 2-year-olds have received the flu vaccine.

At the same time last year, 71.2% of adults over 65, 46.7% of adults with a long-term health condition, 44.8% of pregnant women, 45.0% of 3-year-olds and 43.0% of 2-year-olds were vaccinated.

It doesn’t give you the total number of people who catch flu. Unless they do some sort of statistically significant random sample using the test dangeourbrain mentions, I don see how they could work it out.

I might try do some more reading on it if I have time.

So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?

My understandng is No, for the UK anyway.

I linked to some Department of Health reports up there somewhere ^. They estimate the number of deaths attributable to seasonal flu. They do not even try to estimate the number of cases of flu.

The best they can do is the number of pepople seeking advice from GPs about cold and flu symptons.

They dont give an estimated mortality rate for flu a they have no idea how many people actually have it.

If somebody with a better understanding of medical statistics would read the same report and correct any misunderstanding, I would be obliged.

Does it have to be stronger than 60% alcohol or will a weaker solution do?

I was thinking of buying a couple of litres of cheap Vodka and trying to put it through on expenses :-)

If it has to be over 60, I’d have to be buying cask strength whisky or Absinthe!

Surely if bog rolls become unavailable due to meltdown of society you can just wash your bum with water like half the world’s population?

Or do it like the Romans did – use a wet sponge. You can even share it amongst friends!

(xylospongium)

Where do I find the “like” button?