Historically, when they’ve been defeated previously there’s been a lurch even further to the loony right before they drift back to the centre to become electable again, so I’m guessing Kemi Badenoch?
As pointed out above, they are in a really interesting bind though. For the first time that I can remember the right wing vote has been split between the Tories and Reform. As a lefty this is very satisfying, as we have been trying to manage this for decades! It does make it hard to predict what will happen though, especially in these social media fuelled divisive times.
Re who would I like to see elected, it seems that Tugendhat is the least loony so I guess him?