Could you share your evidence for this?
A few years ago Bristol MTB club had a weekend skills course. Only advertised on our forum. I went to the Saturday session. That night the guy giving the skill course (well known MTB skills coach) stayed with our president. Someone broke in that night and stole all their bikes.
Also we had a spate a few years ago of white vans turning up at chainreaction and bike fest late at night. Reported leaving early in the morning by security who hadn’t challenged them. Result many bikes taken from tents etc.
These are ones I personally went to and saw the aftermath. I live locally so didn’t stay overnight before the event.
Well worth checking that you aren’t leaving a trail of information that can lead to your bike. They also know that expensive bikes are likely to be replaced via insurance so often hit the same place a few months later.
I personally don’t subscribe to the follow them home theory. But an interesting exercise is put yourself in the thieves shoes. How would you find out about your bike and then steal it?
My bike goes in my car but often MTB as well from home. The area you live in or lose to might also increase the likelihood of a break in.
If your shed or garage from the outside looks like Fort Knox I would think you had something worth stealing and worth further investigation.