That is a very non-medical opinion. And this is not flu.

I’m inclined to disagree – I haven’t see any work on whether Covids lower mutation in comparison to flu rate makes it fitter or not yet. Total silence on the questions I posed earlier on in the thread so far.

I’m fond of Bill, good to see he’s getting the jab.

IIRC that in ‘nature’ viruses often mutate to be less deadly because natural selection favours viruses that enable hosts to spread rather than crawling away into a corner and dying

Yup and this is what I’ve been saying, the evolutionary drive isn’t there for it to mutate into a less deadly form.

Everything we have learned from the history of epidemics is wrong in this case, the last time we had a big one was too long ago as was the last time we had a possible coronavirus epidemic (1890s) for the same rules to apply now.

I’m beginning to become convinced that we’re in the same kind of turning point that the introduction of the machine gun and guerrilla warfare had on the course of history and leaderships ability to comprehend what was afoot – it was only obvious with hindsight. Then again I might have had too much to drink.

Well, so much for mutating to lower severity.

I might start putting good money down on my hunches now.

I really **** need to move sideways from Pharma into finance.

I’ve added ergon grips since then

Pervert.

Lockdown is actually working very well and the effect on deaths will soon be very clear. Keep with it!

Agreed based on the numbers so far.

Again, it’s just a feeling – but the Lanchester equations Army intelligence were using during the Vietnam war told them they were winning as well. They weren’t and didn’t. Lockdown is the best of a very poor bunch of tools in the context of keeping deaths down until the vaccines become effective. No one has responded to my worries about the vaccines though.

Knock this up the command chain at DHSC DrJ – there are sympathetic ears but it is madness.

Hahahah that’s **** brilliant.

Do we have studies that can show evidence of immunity mediated reduction in morbidity despite complete evasion of monoclonal and significant evasion of polyclonal antibodies?

Because I suspect that we’re dealing with a new question here that hasn’t been adequately answered by science yet, happy to be proven wrong though.

TiRed how much work has been done on mutation rates and viral fitness/ability to thrive? Covid has a low to moderate mutation rate and you have used this as evidence to back up your optimism.

However

https://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1007324

It’s on e-coli so not directly related but this caught my eye

v In contrast, some populations at the highest mutation rates showed reduced adaptation during evolution, and failed to thrive in all of the 90 alternative environments. In addition, they experienced a dramatic decrease in mutation rate. Our work demonstrates that the mutation rate changes the global balance between deleterious and beneficial mutational effects on fitness. In contrast to most theoretical models, our experiments suggest that this tipping point already occurs at the modest mutation rates that are found in the wild.

So whilst Covids mutation rate is according to some, lower than influenzas – is it possible that the mutation rate is in a golden zone in terms of the tipping point between beneficial and deleterious mutations?

A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand “is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,” the Citi advisors wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-who-vaccines-exclusiv/exclusive-who-vaccine-scheme-risks-failure-leaving-poor-countries-with-no-covid-shots-until-2024-idUSKBN28Q1LF

A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand “is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,” the Citi advisors wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-who-vaccines-exclusiv/exclusive-who-vaccine-scheme-risks-failure-leaving-poor-countries-with-no-covid-shots-until-2024-idUSKBN28Q1LF

Similarly I have spoken today to two sources in Scottish Government about education issues – both shared a ‘August ’21 schools will be back in and pretty normal’ view. The discussion was about how we support schools and pupils back to a normality without ignoring the significant mental, physical and social health issues our children now face…

Remember “Eat out to help out!”, we got dragged into some kind of mass hysteria of optimism.

I’m not going to commit to betting on this, as I’m still on the fence – but I might just might be able to do a “called it 8 months ago” post on STW in August.

Let’s pose the question, what if – hypothetically – the vaccines turn out to be an abject failure because the logistics of the effort cannot keep up with the rate of change within the virus – what is plan B? Do we lockdown again, in an effort to roll out a vaccine program that can vaccinate 7 billion people in even less time than we are attempting to do it this time?

And just to counter some of the doom and gloom above: I know of two major central banks that are fully expecting restrictions to end in the summer and life to get back to normal across Europe due to vaccination, and they’re not prone to hysteria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias

Most humans have it.

Anyway, I’m not advocating for further lockdowns into 2022/23.

The government needs to be planning the appropriate support to get hospitality though the next six months right now, and announcing asap, so owners, managers, staff and suppliers can make their own plans.

Agreed Kelvin, unless we go into essentially a war footing the economic effects of playing whack-a-mole with Covid and any vaccine resistant variants are going to be intolerable. At the moment we are fighting this as if everything will be fine and dandy once the vaccine is rolled out, we need to be thinking about how we fight this on a 5-10 year timescale and how we can rapidly build nurse capacity in the NHS as an alternative to more strict lockdowns. I’m starting to view the strict lockdowns whilst we’re waiting for a vaccine as a symptom of our short term thinking as opposed to something that is in spite of our short term planning.

I’m getting the feeling that we’re suffering from the same type of thinking that Netflix’s “The Vietnam War” documentary series highlighted in regards to President Johnsons fallacious sunken costs thinking.

I’ve not made my mind up on this but I’m not entirely convinced by some of my colleagues that the pharmaceutical industry can keep pace with this, I’m on very good personal and professional terms with a top R&D microbiologist who’s been muttering much the same to me as well. But then again, we also get on because we’re both pessimists – and I’m actually paid to essentially be a pessimist/devils advocate. I wonder if there are any groups that have red teamed the current vaccine response?

Part of what keeps winter/covid riding interesting for me, with less days out to wales etc – is tinkering with the bike. Trying new things to see if I can get a more confident feeling on the bike. I’ll quite happily spend all day sectioning a trail and bracketing the suspension methodically,
adjusting bar height, trying different tyres trailside, different head angles etc.

Not sure the 35s have a dimple, they equalise at top out.

ANPR decals, he’s trained to pursue a fail-to-stop.

Good friend of mines a copper, she sometimes drives ANPR equipped cars – isn’t pursuit trained.

Not all coppers are pursuit trained.

As the virus is already transmittable asymptomatically, the evolutionary pressure to become less harmful presumably isn’t that great. I wouldn’t plan based on that happening over the next 18 months, that’s for sure.

Agreed. This is what I have been quietly worrying about, there are a lot of people in my industry (pharma) who are saying “oh it will be alright, the new variants will have reduced severity”. Only 10 percent of the population is confirmed to have had it, we already have 100k dead and the evolutionary pressure to mutate into a less severe form is simply not there. If the new variants are that good at avoiding the immune system I think they’ll even cause significant clinical disease in those who have already caught the virus before.

Nahhh.

I think it’s funny, he still caveats it and partially blames the EU by attacking Brussels.

He’s a prick and got what he voted for, what the **** did he expect to happen when untangling decades and decades of closer economic co-operation.

Following publication of the letter, Daltrey, 76, said: “Every tour, individual actors and musicians should be treated as any other ‘goods’ at the point of entry to the EU with one set of paperwork. Switzerland has borders with five EU countries and trade is electronically frictionless. Why not us?”

Because people aren’t goods they’re immigrants and Switzerland may as well be in the EU, all of which vote leave hated.

You like The Who don’t you Northwind….that’s up there with Bono apologism.

In further good news, talentless **** can’t get work in Europe.

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/20/brexiter-roger-daltrey-criticises-restrictions-for-musicians-touring-europe

Oh well mate, I still can.

VP will be getting the job sooner than you think.

Oh no! That will be so much worse than a Mussolini walt.

Warranty it, sell fork, buy Manitou Expert series/DVO Berryl/Marzocchi Z1/Z2 – the performance issues on the 35s are caused by both the much more basic type of air spring and damper. Spending 300 quid on a Charger 2.1 damper to drop into it seems like a lot of money in comparison to just buying a better fork.

Any of my university years would have been worst. I can put my life on hold right now, but the uni years were the best and hardest of my life, I’m not sure I could have coped with that at that age, knowing it could never be undone.

University was four years of getting high as **** and playing Fifa with complete degenerates.

It would have been exactly the same with Covid going on, as the students living in the accommodation next to my apartment can seemingly attest to.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/20/covid-vaccines-may-need-updating-to-protect-against-new-variant-study-suggests

Neutralising ability of antibodies typically falls eight-fold with South African variant

If this turns out to be true, are we back to the lockdown vs herd immunity argument? This seems like a policy failure if the vaccine deployment can’t keep pace with the not only global demand but also the rate mutations.

Unless we start looking at this through the effort and timescale required to finish world war two, I’m beginning to wonder whether we’re either fighting a losing battle or in danger of the medical public health equivalent of getting bogged down in Vietnam with ever increasing mission creep.

Awesome – working holiday whooop whooooop

When the lockdowns subside of course.

Aachen Bike park?! Say what!

Hahah I was surprised as well, there’s actually some decent riding around there, not just in the bike park but along and either side of the Limburg/Aachen border by the looks of it.

I’ll give as much credence to your brexit guff as I did to your trump election fraud conspiracy nonsense

Wasn’t it 5thElefeant who was saying that it’s always the left that is violent and that he doubted the American right would display anything remotely like the BLM protests?

Harhahahaahaha

What a tool.

Here

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/27/white-supremacists-militias-infiltrate-us-police-report

and here

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/16/us-capitol-riot-police-neo-nazis-far-right

“It was absolutely my pleasure to crush a white nationalist insurrection… and we’ll do it as many times as it takes.” pic.twitter.com/bsLt7zL36X

— Ben Taub (@bentaub91) January 16, 2021

What a legend of a quote hahah.

Ome of our collies has developed epilepsy. At the moment he has come out of his seizures quite quickly with no ill effects. However, we have been wondering that if there was a problem when we were out walking, how we would get him off the hill? He’s quite big for a collie (27kg) & I would certainly struggle to carry him far, especially if he was continuing to fit, whilst my wife would have no chance.I have seen a thing called a Fido Pro Airlift, but I’m not too sure about it. The video shows man with dog on the ground & then man standing with dog in the device, but not the tricky bit of transitioning between the two stages which I suspect may not just be an oversight. Has anyone else had this sort of problem & what solutions did you come up with?

Dog climbing harness from ruffwear and then roped over back or chest is how I’d do it.

It’s the way the loonies carry them

Here#s the belay harness that should do the trick

https://ruffwear.co.uk/collections/dog-harnesses/products/doubleback-harness

EDIT: That airlift harness looks the easiest thing to use out of the box

2am night ride with a mate….A bunch of blokes around a grey van parked up next to Rutland water, with one guy laying on top of the van with what looked like an Accuracy International rifle pointing out into the water.

They look surprised, we looked even more surprised – we carried on pedaling as hard as we could.

There’s a whistleblowing line for employers breaking the covid rules.

If I was the Director of FBI sitting on that leak, this is how I would feel right now…..

Must be a great feeling to create a huge list of arrest warrants for **** with only a moderate amount of effort.

The idiot alt-right has seemingly walked itself off a cliff. Where’s Ninfan et al so we can laugh at them?

Check out the Galfer rotors – the 223mm ones are getting good reviews.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/10/baffling-brexit-rules-threaten-export-chaos-gove-is-warned

Rumblings of renegotiations already

One leading figure involved in the talks with Gove described the new rule book as a “complete shitshow”. Another said Gove seemed “very concerned” at hearing reports of problems, after a week in which Marks & Spencer was among leading companies to warn that more bureaucracy would increase costs. The source added: “He [Gove] seemed to realise the full gravity of the situation that is unfolding and about to get worse.

😂

or anything else that can be caught in undergrowth, or wherever she goes whilst working or training.

I went halfway and just keep the id tag attached to the harness. If they entered water to work, I’d consider doing the same as you though.

Agreed but this is STW, most people here are quite outdoorsy and few people have pickup trucks.

Proper harnesses with enough chest/tummy support so that a handle can be used – are very useful, versatile bits of kit if you’re an outdoorsy type with a car – not to mention that the evidence that collars can cause injury is increasing. It’s not worth spending the money on a decent one like the webmaster whilst the puppies young, but it’s definitely worth getting them used to one.

They were even useful when we lived in London, as you are meant to pick your dog if you use the escalators on the underground.

I doubt it’s exercise outside thats contributing to transmission.

It was the schools being open and certain industries like construction still being open now.