In principle it’s little different to fighting a COIN war. The idea of pacification of villages and towns by essentially locking them down and inoculating the population against communist ideology is superficially similar in terms of how we are dealing with COVID. We have to manage it based on all the lessons we’ve learned about why previous counter-insurgencies have failed and why they lost public support. Otherwise we’ll commit, commit again and commit some more to policies that are doomed to either fail or lose public support – and history will judge all of the effort, younger lives and money thrown at COVID as a waste.

The Netherlands rioting is a foreshadow.

The initial vaccines will save lives, and allow us more freedoms later this year. They don’t allow us to rule out ongoing measures or rule out further lockdowns. Ongoing vaccines developments and rollouts might.

Sure. But this isn’t what the public expects. Just like they didn’t expect WW1 to last 4+ years, the Korean war to end in a stalemate, Vietnam to end in humiliation, Iraq to end in ISIS.

we’re looking and buying ahead with the assumption that vaccinating again in the UK with other or updated vaccines within 12 months will happen.

My issue with this, is despite the rapid roll out of the vaccine program in the UK it’s still too slow that in the case of the rapid spread of a variant that significantly reduces the effectiveness of a vaccine – we’re back to reactive measures again. Let’s not get started on how slow the vaccine program in Europe has been. We aren’t anti-fragile, the whole program at the moment is a house of cards.

That’s roughly what I suspected you were getting at – but I don’t want to put words into other peoples mouths.

If not, there really is no point wasting a vaccine or indeed any finite resource on me.

This isn’t what I’m saying, what I am warning against is getting bogged down in something that isn’t “winnable” by the goals and standards that politicians and society have defined so far. It is getting bogged down like that, which will lead to the above.

We have to be prepared for bad news, so we can cope with it. I don’t pretend to know what an alternative strategy would look like, but we have to be agile so that we can as a society cope with this when the current plan doesn’t work out.

The study may have been too small to give a precise answer, but it was large enough to show that the vaccine isn’t highly effective.

Probably worth expanding on your point here thecaptain, for the others.

I suspect I get what you’re saying but I’d like to hear you expand on it.

It’s always been about limiting the damage till we can deal with it the way we deal with influenza.

We never really “dealt” with influenza – it killed a lot of people and we shrugged our shoulders, what we are trying to do now has never been done before. This isn’t smallpox.

The 1889-1890 pandemic (possibly a coronavirus) had yearly outbreaks until the end of 1895 – that was with the disease being allowed to rip through the global population circa 1889-90.

Oh and +1 thecaptain……..humans are inherently biased towards optimism aren’t they?

Going to hold off on calling it on my suspicion that the vaccine program can’t end this anytime soon and any idea that this will be over by the end of 2021 is as deluded as those who thought involvement in Vietnam wouldn’t end up in anything other than protracted quagmire policy wise – but I reckon my odds are looking better.

We need to start considering/entertaining the possibility that we can’t end this with lockdowns and a vaccine and start to think of ways that can mitigate the impact of covid without either policy being in place or having the public support to implement them.

Ahhh damn, can we merge the threads mods?

Because I like the idea of discussing the social ramifications/bigger picture of this – not just the narrower focus of the other thread.

You’re a dog person because you have a strong need for the undying uncomplicated affection that comes from an animal you have trained to obey you?

As I always suspected about dog owners!

You don’t train them, they learn how to fit into your pack and actively enjoy working/operating/playing within it. Remember wolves give each other commands.

There is a lot of dog shit around at the moment though – and lots of chavs with aggressive dogs. That’s a problem with dogs being too cheap and too easy to buy.

Looks like it

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-short-sellers-squeezed-losses-reddit-traders-army-cohen-palihapitiya-2021-1-1030006226

Agreed. As the FT points out, trading and the stock market has become much more democratised. I’m unsure if that’s a good thing at this point, I suspect that we haven’t seen the last of this type of event and the questions this throws up will end up being an integral part of the social media battleground that will play out in the 2020’s.

“The WallStreetBets subreddit (largely daytraders) decided to mess with them and make some quick money,” industry analyst and consultant Michael Futter told me. He also clarified that the subreddit’s actions had nothing to do with propping up an ailing company out of some bizarre sense of nostalgia, or with videogames in general. “They aren’t interested in GameStop as a company. It could quite literally have been ANY company.”

This entertains me a lot more than it should.

Good point.

This forums becomes very civilised.

Agreed on the incel thing.

Going to twitter airbus in the morning for the fun of it.

If you look at the rest of the blog there are other nasty ones as well. He’s nasty and it seems like some of his readers are egging him on.

The two victims need to move into mtb if that’s what roadie culture is like.

Protection from Harassment Act 1997 section 2
Malicious Communications Act 1988 section 1
Communications Act 2003 section 127

Agreed.

The **** did I just read?

Those two might be on the daft/careless side but that writer is a deranged lunatic, I’m surprised someone hasn’t caved his skull in with a set of Bombers yet.

If he is somewhat lacking in social skills how does this issue get resolved?

That is way, wayyyy beyond lacking social skills – there are plenty of posters here who have talked about their lack of social skills/autism – they are all on the whole lovely people.

The fork legs are easily marked (like all forks I guess) and I’ll never get full travel out of it, which feels like I’m being short changed…

The only air fork I’ve ever had that has been willing to use most of it’s travel but reserves just enough for the most extreme, over the bar, lawn darting hits is my current Fox 38. Most air forks offer too little midstroke support which means you end up with quite a lot of bottom out force to get that mid stroke support – coil with position sensitive secondary dampers like the smashpot (or air bumbers in the ACS3) or very large air chambers solve this issue.

My Lyriks and Pikes always left me with a good 50mm of unused travel….very occasionally I’d use all but 25mm in certain normal riding conditions, to get the support I want. I can set my 38’s up to feel supportive whilst regularly using all but the last 25mm. They give me just as much grip, support and comfort as my coiled 36 RC2’s did – if not more – maybe it’s because they bind less but they feel a bit more comfortable in rock gardens.

Anyway, my point is – I suspect it isn’t the damper that’s the issue with the Ohlins – it’ll be the spring for sure.

Plenty of coil options out there that will fit the ohlins in 25lb increments. SAR, Race only Springs, Nukeproof etc etc

Bourbon.

Yup – but are we doing mixed doses now?

I might read some Pratchett again! Good shout.

Almost finished The Power of the Dog by Don Winlsow which is a quite wide in scope fictional assessment of the US War on Drugs and Central/South American cartels. Not on the light side but really absorbing.

This looks good, might have to Amazon it.

My favourite non-fiction lockdown read so far has been “The Revenge of Geography” by Robert D. Kaplan, it covers geography and it’s affects on History – and the fault lines of conflict that could arise in the 21st century.

https://www.europeaninstitute.org/index.php/archive/sort-by-date-2/167-ea-january-2013/1674-the-revenge-of-geography-what-the-map-tells-us-about-coming-conflicts-and-the-battle-against-fate-by-robert-d-kaplan

This. Looking to ensure your own supply works both ways. When “we” do it, it’s “good” news.

Agreed – I might have laughed my cock off when I read the headlines after the responses to my opinion in the vaccination of under 50’s thread.

Good luck **** vaccinating all those with the first Pfiezer dose all over again and the rest of us with the AZ vaccine by September

At the moment the Pfiezer vaccine is the backbone of the UK vaccine response isn’t it? I don’t think it’s a non-story at all.

Agreed – but it’s a poor move on the part of the EU – the British will resent potential deaths being caused by the EU because they renege on a contract due to their own supply and approval issues. I think that will set the tone for future relations if such a tone hasn’t already set in.

Looks like Britain might be on the receiving end of vaccine nationalism.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/26/eu-threat-will-not-impact-covid-vaccine-deliveries-to-uk-says-minister-pfizer

Reshim the rebound otherwise as you say you’ll affect the compression.

Replacement damper will cost a the best part of a new fork, when was the last service? 8 years old is getting on a bit for a fork. Although I guess it will be a 26 – aren’t many 26 inch forks around – so maybe an Avalanche damper.

And yet it can and is willing to provide its vaccine at cost to the developing world, whilst the west harps on about human rights but does its utmost best to help cause human rights tragedies like ISIS and trip over itself infighting over vaccine supply.

Refer to the comment on the west staring up its own arsehole from earlier.

That is a crock of poo – the damper and the coil are just as important as each other and work together

http://wrcbehindthestages.blogspot.com/2012/02/springs-co.html?m=1

“An interesting note I’d like to point out is that back in the late 80’s and early 90’s the popular concept was to let the spring do the work. The damper was merely there to keep it under control, discreetly, if you see what I mean. The philosophy later changed completely. The shock absorber became king. Thanks to advances in technology, dampers became so “bullet proof” and effective that, in a way, springs became secondary. To exagerate a bit you could say that, nowadays, they just hold the car up… here is a little anecdote to illustrate my point about the suspension revolution”

And

“In the mid to late 90’s, the works Toyotas were running very hard springs, in the range of 50-80N/mm on the front for gravel and as much as 90-100N/mm on tarmac, if I remember correctly. Things changed drastically with the involvement of top Nordic drivers and Toyota Team Sweden (TTS) who went, together with some evolutions of the Öhlins dampers, way down to values around 45N/mm on the front. In those days, this was a revolution”

And

“By the time I had joined Ford they were using 30N/mm on the front generally, for gravel, and around 50N/mm for tarmac (not so sure anymore on the tarmac rates, although I do remember we had a rain setup where the rates went down by 5N/mm all around). On gravel the standard setting was 30N/mm front and 25N/mm rear.”

I’d be careful about claiming someone’s full of shit without knowing what you’re talking about. Those are the words of a former WRC driver. It’s not a huge difference anyway, the support of the Storia allows me to run about 25lb less of spring force in comparison to what I could get away with running on my DHX2. You can physically feel just how much more damping force it generates even when fully open in comparison to a useable setting on the DHX2 simply by pulling the spring off and cycling it by hand off the bike.

Covid is a first world problem. That is to say, the rapid vaccine development & research has only happened due to Covid affecting developed nations (Although I’m not underselling the potential of this being even bigger without the current social restrictions & research funding).

TB kills almost 2 million people every year, almost exclusively in developing nations, and we have effective vaccines and treatments for that.

Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines aren’t locking down despite having high rates of TB, they don’t have high rates. 30 countries in the world are disproportionate contributors to global TB infections and deaths, with 8 of those 30 contributing an even more disproportionate amount. Not all developing countries have bigger fish to fry than Covid.

The TB vaccine is also only effective on children.

China ain’t building those roads and other infrastructure in Africa et al to help those countries. They are they to either buy their favour, or to enable the resources to be easily shipped back to China. Its not ‘influencing’ per se as basically buying out the countries. If you can’t eat now you shake the hand that feeds you and don’t worry about the consequences. Its modern day colonialisation.

Of course they aren’t, but after suffering the indignity of the opium wars – they’re much better at playing the hearts and mind game than us. We would be doing the same, if the developing world didn’t see China as a better bet.

*Puts on his best John Malkovich impression*

Covid is just as much of a domain for great power competition as is oil, cyber, space, maritime access etc – any failure to understand that risks the status of the west and it’s democratic allies.

The idea of sending a load of vaccine to another country is nice (and, as tj says, ignores the task of actually deploying it to the population) but it may never be an option.

It is an option, that’s what the COVAX programme is.

If the west hinders the program, it will be a moral, geopolitical and strategic failure that will lead to needless deaths and further the irrelevance of the west.

If you want the majority of the developing world to fall into the Chinas sphere of influence more than it already has then by all means we should pursuing a policy of idiot vaccine nationalism and staring up our own glorious brexit ridden arseholes.

The biggest killer in the world is poverty. Is it morally right for anybody to earn over the minimum wage whilst other countries scrape by on nothing?

It isn’t and it’s why China is winning the influence game, it’s ability to lift developing countries out of poverty is putting the ex-colonial powers to shame. Most of you in this thread are also the first ones to start banging on about green issues, not realising that it’s the unequal distribution of wealth and westerners that are the cause of it.

Covid is not just an epidemiological problem, it’s a foreign policy problem. It is the attitudes shown in this thread that will lead to the west being left behind, increasingly decrepit, economically irrelevant, disliked for historical and cultural reasons and ignored by the Sinosphere.

Not other European countries no.

Why?

Vaccine supply should be prioritised to all countries that have not sufficiently vaccinated their vulnerable populations. There is self interest here – our economy also relies on other countries getting out of this.

Doing otherwise will also turn the developing world against the west and into the arms of Russia and China.

The only brakes that I’ve ever had outright fail on me – are Hope C2s circa early 2000s and Deores. Avoid at all costs.

Agreed on the Maguras.

My 2020 DHX2 has blown up repeatedly – there’s a reason they completely redesigned them for 2021. TF recommended me a TTX22m – but I went with an EXT Storia in the end. Anyway, the TTX and the Storia all have better sealing, bushing overlap and can utilise spherical bearings to improve shock reliability.

I am hugely impressed with my Storia so far, the DHX2 isn’t even in the same ball park in terms of build quality. The Storias are designed to run a softer spring and rely on the excellent damping and HBO circuit to control big hits – that attitude comes from their strong WRC experience. Haven’t had a tonne of time on it but the DHX2 felt underdamped and like it had to rely on the spring for control.

Out of those that you mentioned, I’d go with the Ohlins.

Lucky you !! All will be fine ! Just double check and google before you swig a £500 bottle, just in case ! You never know…

The ****? Swig the 500 quid bottle dude – rock n roll, smoke em if you got em etc etc.

Yeah, think that’s something that I mentioned very very early on in this thread – back last February when we were dealing with “we have the best science, the biggliest science” arrogant bullshit – how Africa was way ahead of us in terms of coping with and understanding pandemics.

Good to see the debate is staying civilised – I don’t agree with I scoff cakes yet….but at the risk of going full gammon I do wonder what my grandfathers would have thought I thought in terms of risk – one who survived WW1 in the RFC and the other who survived being shot at, strafed and dive bombed as a dispatch rider during ww2 – I think they would have been the first people to pipe up for the interests of the young if they were still alive and with it mentally.

Whilst I don’t totally side with I_Scoff_Cakes – for example I think we need to see this through until June or July – I do think we should be prepared to abandon the current strategy should push come to shove instead of doubling down on the lockdowns and this running into 2022/23.

As I’ve mentioned I think there is a risk here that we start spiraling into a sunken costs fallacy.

I’m more positive… check out COVAX… and also look at just how much better we are at vaccinating worldwide. Gates deserves special mention here, he’s made good use of his success to in developing countries with prophylactic measures such as this. What a star.

The article and journals I’ve read haven’t been very positive about COVAX – I’ll see if I can find them again later. For now I’m smashing a few drinks back and listening to American Pie.

I agree about Gates though, he’s one of the few people I could be bothered to go out of my way to meet.

One vaccine may become less effective but subsequent ones will work also over time different strategies may become clear.

We can’t even vaccinate the worlds population in time for the early versions, there’s a prediction flying round for late 2022 for the over 70s of the developing world.

We either need to quadruple world supply or this is doomed.