If and IF none of you are vulnerable to covid – give her a hug, take her to the **** restaurant and pay the full price.

Don’t be a dick about it dude, your loved ones can kick the bucket tomorrow. If it really is a risk do something special at home, but there will need to be effort put in to make up for it.

People are losing their shit with lockdown at the moment, your missus might be feeling the pressure of it.

Well, after calling at least a dozen times and spending 1-2 hours on the phone each time I finally got through to some lad in Bangor who felt really guilty about the whole thing – who has escalated the issue and given me his direct phone number.

No spam calls yet!

Ok found the new CEO’s email….. “Dear arsehole, I’m writing to you as someone that’s key to the national vaccine program for Covid-19″……

**** me how do they even exist as a company, that is British Leyland levels of stupid.

Awesome.

Well we can forget Brexit then, we’ll have to strap giant warp drives to Britain and exit earth because apart from a select few European democracies – most of the planet is suspect in terms of human rights abuses.

Plenty of labour types willing to sell arms to other dodgey regimes as well grum.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/may/21/foreignpolicy.uk

But again, it’s only a problem when Jews go a bit genocidey.

It’s just a case of pick your poison and side with its cause. Personally I don’t GAF – humans doing human things….what’s new….but people who claim they aren’t anti-Semitic whilst banging on about the Jews are suspect to me.

Are we at the point now where it’s anti semitic to wonder why one third of the current shadow cabinet is a member of Labour Friends of Israel – ‘a Westminster based lobby group working within the British Labour Party to promote the State of Israel’. The same Israel that’s accused of mass human rights violations

You do realise that most of the world is accused of mass human rights violations – in particular most of the Arab world.

Is your problem just when the Jews do it? You’d have to embargo most of the planet and only trade with Sweden and Norway if you actually cared about it with equal measure.

That’s unfortunate in such a young dog TiRed, one of ours had a supposedly inoperable malignant tumour at 13 but ended up undergoing experimental surgery at RVC Cambridge and lived an active life for another two years.

Any second opinions?

Fitzpatrick who fixed my Bedlingtons broken leg in July, had his dog run over by a speeding delivery van in September whilst walking it outside the clinic on the lead. It’s still in critical care.

Feel really sorry for the bloke, couldn’t have happened to a nicer person.

Get paper? Get a pimp? Get a polo neck? :D

I is confused. Can I apply for permission to access your work?

But cheers TiRed, your posts are really interesting. We do appreciate it, don’t worry we understand that NDAs limit what can be talked about.

Genius. Gonna be a meme if we’re not careful

Am I out of the loop on /r/dankmemes or something?

That’s me too. A little stats knowledge from university but not a lot.

With so many specified parameters in a model, I’d be concerned about overfitting.

That’s my 2-pence intelligent comment.

Hah! I’m still trying to learn, which is why I’m asking what are probably fairly thick/idiot questions, it’s just life got a bit in the way of converting from the biosciences to stats. :(

I do like a good argument as well though – that and I think stats is rock and roll – which get’s me horrified/weird/disturbed looks even amongst biologists and chemists that look like they’ve been chained up in the basement of some dark establishment building for the past 30 years.

@TheCaptain – can having so many parameters in your model risk misspecification/bias of some kind? What’s the probability of your model being correct by chance? What does having 200-500 parameters achieve?

I need a day of googling to properly digest both yours and TiReds posts, so be patient with me – I’m essentially an idiot undergrad when it comes to stats.

several decades

You a 90 year old quant? :D

What curve are you using, I’m mildly statistically literate (I was achieving firsts in undergraduate level statistics). I do say mildly because I cut my studying short during Covid to help save the world (mostly because I want to go to actual lectures and life was getting in the way, but saving the world sounds better as an excuse in interviews). If you could humour me with further detail on the differences between your approaches, I’d be very interested.

It wasn’t for being first that Imlygic sales haven’t taken off 😉 .

Mostly because they only ever bothered when I was there trying to get it approved for late stage patients who are going to die shortly anyway, for reasons that I have forgotten.

HAH and the EMA have removed the UK from the MRA page.

Awesome.

We’re all **** doomed.

Ooooh the yanks aren’t reciprocal at the moment on vaccines. Learn something new everyday.

Really, states on the EMA site that vaccines are included?

The EMA/FDA MRA currently only relates to GMP (manufacturing) inspections. It doesn’t cover vaccines (yet) either.

It allows you to wave batch testing on imports as well, also there are new facilities being built both in the EU and the states to scale up vaccine production.

So it could speed things up a little.

Products covered

human biologicals, including vaccines, immunologicals and biotherapeutics

If I am blunt (i.e., my personal opinion) the FDA is a pretty sound professional review organization, whereas the EMA is a group of project managers who cat-herd academics into making opinions.

The FDA have said things that have raised my eyebrows in the past. The EMA’s role as cat-herders however, is a function of the fact that it is another layer over national regulatory bodies. They do a lot of good work and do some things better than the FDA.

Fastest to market was based on speed to make a candidate. And novel technologies can make a candidate for testing faster. Proven technologies may be more effective. We shall see.

Fastest to market can be a loss leader, you have also then developed expertise in a field before anyone else. It’s been five years since Amgens Imlygic went to market, meanwhile no one else has managed to get a comparable product to market on developed the same level of expertise that product required.

@TheCaptain, could you elaborate. I’m vaguely aware that you and TiRed have differences of opinion but I dip in and out of this thread and I’m far to lazy/busy to go back and read 20 pages of context.

combined with a less than universal take-up is…concerning – to me.

If I had my way the vast majority of the population would be getting it whilst sitting/kneeling at the bangy end of a gun.

So does mine.

My main job is cleaning up the mess before and after the MHRA/FDA have visited. I’ll question some ex-MHRA NSF guys I know on it if I get the chance though.

**** knows but hopefully. I’m sure the MHRA are beavering away behind the scenes – and they may even act in a unilateral fashion when it comes to mutual recognition in the short term.

UK is a member of the EMA-FDA Mutual Recognition treaty. So FDA approval should speed things up.

That article is crap on so many levels for someone with such an esteemed background. He’s talking as if there will be one vaccine and did he really expect or think that others in the field expected a vaccine that has been hastily designed in under a year, for a virus family that we’ve never made effective vaccines for in the past – to be as effective as your standard flu vaccine?

This is why the whole western response to this is going tits up, we’re either led by dithering boomers that are frightened of their own shadows or corrupt incompetents like Johnson.

I got to wondering why for example if you can’t spell or add up it’s a disability but if you can’t draw or understand music it isn’t

Isn’t the drawing thing linked to dyspraxia?

I can assure you, as a parent of a girl in 5ème (yr 8) in a French college that we had similar experiences last year. It’s certainly not exclusive to Anglo Saxon culture, adolescent girls can be just as nasty and cliquey in other languages.

Anglosphere because neither of us has experience with European schools, but the Asian schools my wife went to were a completely different kettle of fish. The kids cared about classroom harmony more, whilst there was some bullying – her descriptions and her friends experiences make me think that it was a lot lot less prevalent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/bullying-cyber-england-schools-headteachers-students-oecd-talis-survey-a8965606.html

Talking to parents and tutors won’t sort it out, the only thing that sorted this kind of stuff out at the comp I went to for a while was beating the living shit out of one another.

Reading this thread (and i have just been through something similar with one of my daughters)it occurred to me that when I was at school (80`s) there was a sort of natural pecking order established. The big hard kids picked on the little weak kids and everyone in between just tried to stay out of the way. If anyone was out of order there would be enough kids on the other side to “sort it out” it was like the playground used to police itself.
Now, with a zero tolerance to “bullying” there is no natural order its a free for all and any kid that wants to give someone else a hard time has no peer barriers in the way.

It’s also because British and Yank kids are arseholes generally, my wifes horrified by the level of bullying that goes on in anglosphere schools.

You’re dealing with (unplanned) twin babies and a building site. You’re tired and stressed, so it’d be a minor miracle if your relationship wasn’t at least a little bit rocky. I guess the big question is with calmer circumstances – partner back at work, childcare available – do you think your relationship would improve?

This.

Most people in the west start down the road of kids and houses once they’ve built a strong relationship. You guys are having to do that whist dealing with all of the latter already. Counselling is a good shout – and maybe try to understand the cultural differences between eastern and western relationships because this is much more common in more conservative countries where young adults get thrown in together and have to make a go of it.

You two shouldn’t beat yourself up so much, you’ve dived in headfirst into the deep end. I don’t have children yet and I think it will be ridiculously hard despite me and the missus living together for 10 years since (during and after university) and raising a puppy together before the lockdown.

Millionaire factory racer in doesn’t-matter-if-he-gets-hurt-and-can’t-work-tomorrow shock

Three words.

Sports Injury insurance. Sports Cover Direct includes loss of income insurance, I’m sure there are others/better companies who do it as well.

Great post TiRed, as usual I might add.

Rossi is in his 40’s isn’t he? Doesn’t seem too old for bouncing into a gravel pit at 180mph.

Does anyone have any thoughts on why that ICL map shows the probability of the Sheffield area reaching over 200 cases per 100,000 dropping over time – whilst the surrounding area and pretty much the rest of the country are increasing in probability? The wirral is doing the same. Areas around both the Wirral and Sheffield also start increasing in probability for the 500 cases category.

:D

Burnham has gone from being a decent MP who was an “also ran” to a political heavyweight overnight. I’m fairly impressed by him to be honest, however the scientist side of me is telling me that we need a stricter lockdown. That’s not to say Burnham is delaying any kind of lockdown is horseshit – Johnson’s cabinet are the ones delaying a proper lockdown and not supporting business properly.

Cheers for that Poly, it’s been keeping me up at night. I’ll write a response with your post in mind.

Hah!

The closer you are to Caesar, the greater the fear.

I’m worried about going perm as the project is going the wrong direction, I don’t want to be around long enough to see the results. So I guess it’s as people say in the long run really (next year or two), either go permanent or quit.

My line of work is in pharma, so I’m very aware that I’m fortunate to be working in an industry that hasn’t been hit too hard by the covid pandemic. There are plenty of other contract roles floating around at the minute and it seems companies are finding it harder to fill them at the moment as a lot of people are going permanent due to the uncertainty in the economy.

Cheers guys!

Cheers TiRed, I’m now going to go away and bang that into my skull and break out the google kung fu until I think I fully understand that post.

People tend to come in unit amounts – hence count data is described, Inconvenient, I know

:D

Purely out of curiosity, aren’t both Binomial/Poisson distributions, the distributions of independent events? How are hospital admissions independent events?

“Application of these distributions to model variability is limited, in part, because of the need to assume independence and homogeneity. For studies of communicable disease, application may be inappropriate because of lack of independence. For example, if one person in a group develops the ‘flu’, others in that group have higher risk, reflecting dependency of disease occurrence. Insituations like these, the investigator may attempt to modify the model to account for the dependency.9”

Does your model do take that into account TiRed?