TJ Euro clearing is only a small portion of what the city does, a lot of the work can be automated so it probably wont lead to a linear growth in jobs in Europe, it’s high quantity but low profit margin stuff and much of the support network exists for what the rest of the banking sector does. It’s not complicated work requiring armies of lawyers and compliance bods.

It’s going to hurt London but it’s not an apocalypse that will lead to London being a shadow of it’s former self – investment in the London banking and fintech sector continues at pace. If the sector was scared, I’d have expected a massive run on foreign direct investing.

Instead…..

https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/06/uk-retains-top-spot-for-financial-services-investment-in-europe-and-is-expected-to-outperform-the-continent-post-covid-19

Don’t get me wrong, me and the wife aren’t hugely bothered about some of the jobs leaving London because it means more opportunities for her in cities where it easier for me to get well paid employment (I’m in pharma). We’re not trying to be optimistic because from a pragmatic perspective it might work out for us.

Dunno, I’m a rubbish shot, but both my brothers are killers. Older bro used to shoot birds out of the window when we were kids. Next door neighbour went bezerk when a sparrow landed at his feet once.
Bad boys.
The rat killer had a proper telescopic sight on it n everything.

That’s nothing. An ex friend at comp school locked 70 odd pigeons in a barn and murdered every single one of them with an over and under shotgun. It wasn’t like Vietnam, it was like Hannibal Lecter.

From that link all I can see is that the temporary allowance of the use of the skeleton offices in the EU for British firms is to avoid a mass exodus in the New Year. The European Trading Houses are lining up to get as much of the London business as possible so it will be a slow drain of business leaving us for European hubs rather than a massive shift. Less of a shock to the system but still a large amount of business will be leaving our shores.

Lets not forget that last year, despite ongoing uncertainty over the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU DB signalled its commitment to long-term expansion in the City by publicly recommitting to 21 Moorfields while at the same time slashing 18,000 jobs from its global headcount – 21 Moorfields is an utterly gargantuan office building that they are developing. https://www.egi.co.uk/news/deutsche-bank-commits-to-city-after-cutting-18000-jobs/

As I stated previously – the City isn’t going anywhere – it will just lose some of it’s monolithic dominance. This will of course come at a bad time post Covid, as the city will probably only be able to prop the rest of the failing country up enough to see our GDP growth stagnate post Covid – London and London workers will carry on getting richer whilst everyone else will carry on feeling poorer in real terms.

That’ll learn them London remoaner elites. Not.

Oakley muppet

I thought the EU ruled out skeleton teams stating that all doings in euro stuff had to be in the EU including all the computer systems a d the traders

I don’t think it will collapse overnight but gradually although some has already gone

For now, the EU want as little market chaos as possible – so UK firms with offices in the EU are still being given the regulatory approval to do this. Hence why British firms are still investing in office space and moving some jobs over.

For a nuanced view on the outlook for London check out this piece…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-05/brexit-the-race-to-replace-the-city-of-london-begins?srnd=opinion&sref=kSg2Lr85

They have been setting up small skeleton offices where they need to, the investment management, wealth management and hedge fund firms are staying put.

Oh and

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/22/london-just-overtook-new-york-for-fintech-investment-research-shows.html

You do indeed. And there is a reason why legal qualifications are one of few explicit and guaranteed professional equivalencies in the new agreement… so that other financial centres in Europe can make use of that support, whether it be teams working across the EU:UK border, or individuals following new opportunities away from London.

Yes, they will make use of the legal industry here. However, you don’t do video conferences when a high net worth client threatens to sue you – the lawyers come in and set up shop. It’s useful to have those guys right next door to you and know them on a more personal basis.

The City isn’t going away anytime soon, rumors of it’s death are wildly exaggerated. My wifes company has actually been closing offices in Europe and expanding it’s London outfit.

Financial services are going to be key and we have already lost much of it and the associated support services and much more is going. London as a financial centre is fading and will be dead in a few years

No dealing in euros now or euro based stuff and no passporting / equivalence

Not true.

My wife’s fairly high up in the wealth management game – the banks are setting up small skeleton teams in Europe to deal with passporting and then staying put.

London has its own momentum that will be very hard to derail. You have an entire legal industry set up to support the city, a booming fintech and tech sector – Palantir for example now employs more people London than it does in the US.

She has a first degree, a masters, passed three CFA exams – spends each morning reading various financial outlets and has a substantial amount of time in the industry so I trust her on her opinion. Her company regularly debate this kind of thing as well, brining in speakers to debate and even war gaming various scenarios.

Do you have a map of all the areas in France that aren’t operating state SAR TJ? Because it’s not just the Alps – there are some in the Pyrenees as well aren’t there?

Then as that article points out, you’re still going to be charged for the doctors fees even if you do get picked up by a state helicopter.

I’d do the private health insurance for a six month European cycle tour, even before Brexit, simply because you’re entering so many countries with so many different healthcare setups. Wasn’t Spain refusing to recognise EHIC not long ago?

Agreed on this being a moot point now though.

I hope the tour goes ahead and I’m looking forward to reading about it on here TJ.

EHIC covers anything that would normally be covered for free in Europe. In France, SAR operations are not free everywhere. Doesn’t matter what resort it is or where you are in the country – different communes have different setups.

SAR is not covered by EHIC in France

https://www.angloinfo.com/how-to/france/healthcare/health-system/eu-health-card-ehic-

https://press.gocompare.com/news/hitting-the-slopes-gocompare-warns-skiers-and-snowboarders-not-to-rely-on-an-ehic

EHIC won’t cover you if you need to be repatriated either.

I’d say there’s an outside but real
possibility that the latter may be needed if you’re cycling mixed off-road/road for 6 months.

Flee to Ireland.

Polishing brass on the titanic otherwise.

Oakley you really need to get a grip. You’re wishing pain on suffering on yourself

I think you’ve misunderstood me.

My wages have tripled since Brexit – what suffering am I wishing upon myself? The UK breaks up? I can **** go to Scotland or Dublin – hell I’ve turned down multiple offers willing to sponsor me in Europe for the time being.

The reality is that any of the half educated posters on here will also be able to get sponsorship to leave – or go to Ireland.

If it’s any consolation to them, they can laugh from the outside whilst watching this shitty little island tear itself apart over the next two decades.

You can either accept this and get on with your life, or live in a state of anger, hatred and negativity.

I can. What will make me positive is laughing at the misfortune of brexiteers and voting against their interests for the rest of my existence (preferably via postal voting whilst I’m huffing frogs legs in the South of France)

I don’t agree – once most of the baby boomers are dead – the English will feel isolated when they need a visa to live with their spouse in Scotland or needless veterinary papers to take their dog for a weekend trip.

Which may well happen after the veneer of English exceptionalism has been stripped away by the breakup of their country.

If the sea is up to my waist, I find no cheer in seeing others with the water up to their chin

The worse the UK gets, the more likely Scotland and NI leave the union and the more likely England gets backed into a corner and is forced to rejoin the EU.

Oh and TJ – blog your trip. I will be interested in following it. If you decide to do it for a good cause I’ll contribute as well.

TJ – it’s always been best to get health insurance for cycling – despite the EHIC. Have you got a quote yet?

Schengen visas aren’t too expensive, it’s more that you have to have enough in your bank account to cover six months.

Oh that’s my opinion as well matty.

I’m just trying to have a bit of my own schardenfreude at the brexies expense.

Maybe I’m just an evil bastard though?

It will be more expensive TJ but if you can afford to take 6 months out before state retirement, you should be able to absorb the costs.

Try and enjoy the fact that you’ll still mostly be fine.

Lots of us haven’t been able to see people before they’ve died Matty. I’m as gutted as the next person about leaving the EU, it’s just on the positive side – a lot of us or at least a lot of the STW demographic will still be able to get work visas there, be able to afford to travel there, see friends and family when COVID is over etc – whilst the rest of the country wallows in its own stupidity. The last laugh is going to be on the brexiteers.

Im sorry to hear about your dad though.

My point is – is that if it get’s that bad – I’m not cutting off my own nose. It’s very much cutting off the nose of Brexiteers. The majority of you lot won’t see a blind bit of difference to your living standards.

I belive that’s called ‘cutting your nose off to spite your face’
Sure brexit voters will indeed suffer, along with every one else how had thier rights removed.

How is that a win?

Posted

In my wife’s home country it’s perfectly possible to have a nice middle class life. It’s just that the poor live in shanty towns and get pushed out of helicopters when they get uppity.

I should imagine if it got like that here my life would be exactly the same as it is now.

Sure, but that’s not the world we live in is, or the way its ever been.

Yes, except we were part of supranational organisation that was and is reducing inequality amongst European nations.

A union the British left because they felt more entitled than Polish immigrants were, to Britains stolen wealth.

Well, to use a hyperbole you can’t have a system that with things like a Universal Income, if every single person in the world is allowed to access it.

You can if global wealth distribution is more equitable.

This is also why I don’t agree with universal income, I don’t think the British deserve it. That money would be far better spent improving the infrastructure in the developing world and helping them go renewable as well.

You’re right about the Damascene conversion, though. As previously – the ‘radical left’ will be banging on about ‘just you wait, the conditions for the revolution are nearly right….’ just as the last two working class heroes beat each other to death in the pasta aisle of Asda over the last bag of orzo.

🤣

Perhaps the EU should impose sanctions? A naval blockade perhaps, just to starve us into rejoining?

That would have been great. The UK seems to be fine with China doing or threatening to do this to Taiwan.

Just how bad do you want it to get so that we beg them to let us back in?

I want inequality to get so bad, that certain Brexiteers understand what it’s actually like to live in a poor country and why people might want to migrate.

If Brexshit has proven one thing, it’s that unity is our only strength.

HAH!

I’m with TJ on this one – the Scots, the Welsh and NI would be better off out.

Those of us with the means can flee and leave the English ethnonationalists to their little demented experiment.

People at the bottom have been feeling it for quite some time already. They are more than used to trying to cope with it so if you’re hoping for some Damascene conversion you’re going to be very disappointed. Maybe ask yourself if one of the reasons we’re in this mess is the blinkered and arrogant views you’ve just expressed?

My my Daz, I thought you of all people (as a disaster socialist) would agree.

“Where a government has come into power through some form of popular vote, fraudulent or not, and maintains at least an appearance of constitutional legality, the guerrilla outbreak cannot be promoted, since the possibilities of peaceful struggle have not yet been exhausted.” – Che

Before the plebs were able to blame Europe and vent their frustrations via the Brexit vote, life hasn’t been developing country or Southern/Eastern European state bad for a long long time – maybe the next Tory government will be so bad for them they’ll remember who their actual enemy is and this time they won’t have a democratic outlet to contain and direct their anger. Hey, maybe they’ll even look back on the noughties with some rose tinted spectacles instead of the 1950’s.

This is not the time for a hissy fit

I fundamentally disagree.

People need to feel the iron boot of a Tory one party system.

If it makes you guys feel any better, along with the economic effects of Brexit and Covid – automation is mostly going to hit the social classes that were more likely to vote for brexit as well.

Oh Dear, how sad, never mind. Again. Etc etc

If you’re a half way middle class remainer, just vote for the most Tory low taxes small government steaming nipple twister you can find and plough the tax money you save into charitable causes for the developing world, then spend all of your disposable income on European goods and holidays.

Well, if Starmer doesn’t want to come out pro European – I won’t be bothering to vote Labour next time. Same goes for my friends, they’ll lose the younger vote (13-35) which just about saved them from total annihilation last time. Goodbye you useless donkeys, maybe you’ll form a government in 2045.

Once the SNP have got a date for their next leave vote, I’ll be moving to Scotland to try and pass myself off as a local and annoy TJ.

First paragraph confirmed moaning twatism so stopped after that.

:D

So the consensus is that we’re about to watch chaos unfold then?

Q2 2021 = SNAFUBAR?

Yeah I don’t actually mind Brexit so much now, because it’s mostly **** wit brexiteers who won’t be able to afford it. I won’t have to see as many thickies tanked up on cheap holidays in Europe.

Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.

The diluent doesn’t look to be supplied with the pfizer multidose vials either, so that will be another logistical/error point for countries with poorer health care.

Woops.

I’ve heard that a patient in Israel got the equivalent to about 5 doses because the Pfizer vaccine isn’t in it’s final form – the nurse used the entire vial. Doubt that this would cause an issue with the patient, but it’s slightly amusing to me that a company like Pfizer is getting such wild filling results.

Diet, supplements and meditation.

Might as well pray to Odin, light up a cigarette and stand in front of a firing squad.

From the link thecaptain provided…

o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.
•L

As I’ve said previously, Boris Making a u-turn on Christmas will reduce compliance in the long term. People will feel safer breaking the rules in numbers and that will carry on into the new year. People are losing the feeling of being tied into a social contact. The poverty/unemployment, morale drop due to Christmas cancellations and Brexit disorganisation/fallout is going to lead to unrest.

What will be interesting is whether the trend from cases to admissions to deaths is different in the South. That will take a few weeks to feed through. My suspicion is that pathogenicity is unchanged.

Depends on whether there are selection pressures on pathogenicity – social distancing could act as such a pressure.