Not sure everyone is expecting a normal summer and Q3 and Q4 ?

I would say everyone is hoping for a normal summer and Q3 and Q4.

The Kent variant started in mid September, and had the UK locked down by mid December. 3 months is all it took. The first wave in Q1 2020 was about 2 months.

I hope that Government/PHE/Etc successfully monitor all the new variants and take early action to avoid another 3 month national lockdown.

I also hope to be able to make the most of the spring and summer.

NHS Deaths per 100k from peak – 1st Wave vs most recent wave

Most recent wave – how deaths vs new cases vs hospital admissions are tracking

The percentage of covid deaths from people aged over 70 as a percentage of total.

Following the news conference today that 75% of the population aged 70 to 84 have antibodies, I thought I would look at what has happened to deaths for that age group.

I am struggling to see a material impact yet.

I will definitely get a vaccine still when I get offered it, but I really hope this trend improves over the coming weeks.

Ah, I was not clear.

Using the headings from that table and just looking at total.

For example, one analysis is:

Of the 94.8% of the population aged over 80 who HAD the vaccine, what % have died of covid in March

Of the 5.2% of the population aged over 80 who DID NOT HAVE the vaccine, what % have died of covid in March

The expection is that a much lower % of people died of covid in March who had the vaccine.

In order to do this, it might need a team working across departments to pull all the raw data together and merge it. This team might not exist.

What is needed is a graph for each age group plotting vaccinated people vs unvaccinated.

We will have to wait for somebody in government to create the analysis…

@Tired Thank you for those graphs. It is good to see some other analysis on the issue.

I also see a clearer trend with males when comparing Male and Female death data as per these two graphs.

theotherjonv

% is misleading. As the absolute number of over 85’s decreases due to vaccination, the others will increase as a % even if they don’t change (or even decrease) in absolute terms.

The others should indeed increase as a percentage and the older age group should decrease. However they are not ?

I am looking at the percentage to try to measure the impact of vaccination on older age groups.

The reason there are less over 85 dying in absolute terms is due to lockdown in my opinion, not vaccine.

This is deaths for the UK, using ONS data. I have used female data as there are a higher proportion of old females so the trend should be clearer.

Again, I would have expected to see the percentages dropping in the older age groups due to vaccination.

The reason I first looked at hospitalisations is that the impact of vaccination on deaths would take longer to come through in the data.

The graph above is of new daily hospital admissions.

Looking at deaths, I have plotted for London…

I am not clear on how accurate the data is in recent days. There might be reporting delays.

If the vaccine is effective we should see a decline in the percentage of older age groups being hospitalised due to Covid ?

That does not appear to be happening…

I would expect the older age groups to make up a smaller ratio of hospital admissions due to the vaccine.

What am I missing ?

Source data: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

The graph is plotting new admissions by day.

IGNORE

burko73, yes the hard drive and fusion drives are about a foot apart. You can’t replace the fusion drive as its soldered on. You can replace the HD drive just like a normal imac without the fusion drive.

The old variant has hardly grown since mid November. New variant is crazy.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Now Pillar 1 & 2

It does not give number of tests unfortunately

dantsw13, yes, both Pillar 1 and 2.

PHE now publishing Pillar 1 & 2 at local level. A couple of slightly different reports…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467854855/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V1

https://www.scribd.com/document/467854853/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V2

Thanks for the advice, will try Whinlatter

Number of new cases continue to decline…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467148549/Rates-by-Lower-Tier

Number of NHS deaths continue to decline…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467148483/NHS-Hospital-Deaths

Not in front of excel, and I use excel rarely nowadays but…

row 2 =iferror(countif(EXPORT!$D$2:$D$140000,o2&$ab$12),0)
row 3 =iferror(countif(EXPORT!$D$2:$D$140000,o3&$ab$12),0)
Drag down the formula

Then in the column next to these formula, divide the answer to the formula by 1. Then sum that column. ( Might need an iferror around that division formula if some come back as zero )

iferror in excel is like isnull in sql

Might give you want you want.

A couple of pieces of analysis of Covid that you might find useful. ( I had highlighted some areas in yellow for family )

The first is the number of deaths as reported by the NHS…

https://www.scribd.com/document/464683912/NHS-Hospital-Deaths

The second is the number of new cases by week as reported by the gov website…

For those that want to see what is happening at a local level with new confirmed cases, I have produced this PDF which is from the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ website.

This analysis is the rate of new confirmed cases per 100,000 on a moving 7 day average.

https://www.scribd.com/document/462698530/Rates-by-Lower-Tier-V1

It is colour coded if you download it 🙂

The latest ONS data shows that the number of excess deaths remain very elevated in care homes, as shown below with the green bars.

The number of non care home excess deaths is still elevated, but has dropped significantly in the week ending 8th May.

For those who live in Oxfordshire, be careful please.

This is a graph of the number of new cases per day. Oxfordshire is in Blue. Germany in green as a comparison, with the peaks aligned to help guide what should have happened.

It might be linked to increased testing in hospitals or care homes. I only have the data, not what is happening behind the scenes.

Spain reckons about 5%

This compares UK and Spanish deaths. I know not like for like due to issues of recording C19 deaths accurately.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=esp&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths

Patrick Vallance reckons 4%.

My depressing maths points me towards the low end of estimates.

I reckon the range is down towards 3% to 6%.

I hate maths.

According to the data released today, 0.27% of the population had C19 in the 2 week period until 10th May.

From Government testing up to 10th May, 219,183 patients had tested positive, of which, 30.3% of those had tested positive in the 2 week period until 10th May.

Using these two data sets, only 0.89% of the population have had C19.

Testing has improved over the last 2 weeks, so the real number is higher than this, but perhaps only by a multiple of 2-3 times.

I would like the app to help understand the circumstances of when the virus is being transmitted to reduce the lock down controls. Does anybody know whether the UK version will help with that ? Does anybody know whether the apple/google version will help with that ?

E.G
Record location – e.g. outside vs inside vs public transport vs etc rates of transmission
Record time in contact with the other person
Record distance from the other person

The software could give useful insights, but I guess this will not be possible due to privacy concerns and battery life ?

I would sign up to giving extra data if it helped reduce lock down controls. I would like the option to record more data that was then centralized when the battery was being recharged. I do not expect to be going out for long enough to have concerns about battery life. The benefits outweigh the privacy concerns for me.

With regard to the question of should we have locked down earlier.

I have a simple answer, YES we should have locked down earlier.

When we delayed the lock down we were doubling the number of cases every 3 days.

Post peak, I believe we are now halving the number of cases every 12 days.

That means for every 3 day delay to lock down, one has to then remain locked down for an extra 12 days. So a week delay to lock down equals an extra 4 weeks of lock down. And so on.

The experts should have known this, and this should have been the argument for early lock down at government level. This should have been the end of the argument, sadly it was not 🙁

From both a health and economic perspective an earlier lock down would have been better.

Lunge, fitting your exercise around a journey that might save a life can only be seen as a good thing in my opinion. might well make sense to do it at that spot from a social distancing pov.

This is looking at total deaths by location, again from the ONS.

This is showing what China experienced as a “2nd wave” on the scale of Oxfordshire. Clearly very small. I guess the visible 2nd wave will be much later in the year.

This is a table comparing week 15 of 2020 vs the average of week 15 in the proceeding 5 years. This is looking at total deaths, from the ONS data.

This is a graph tracking number of new cases per day, plotting Oxfordshire in orange, and China in blue. Shows Oxfordshire is tracking on a similar decline which is very good news. National level this will not be visible as areas will have experienced different timings of their peaks. The China peak has been aligned to the date of the Oxfordshire peak. This is a five day moving average graph. The China data has been cleaned up for their one off massive increase.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Percentage_of_major_Y-DNA_haplogroups_in_Europe.png

Tired,

Is there anything different about the R1b haplogroup ?

https://www.eupedia.com/images/content/roman_colonies_italy.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Y-chromosome_haplogroups_in_populations_of_the_world#/media/File:Haplogroups_europe.png

Scotland seasonally adjusted…

I have done an seasonal adjust based on the previous 5 years of deaths. It shows we should have seen a drop in the number of deaths. Adjusting for this makes the total numbers worse.

Some analysis of the National Records of Scotland data shows a similar trend. What is interesting is that they break out the C19 deaths in hospitals, care home etc.

As I understand the reporting by the government are only of hospital deaths from C19. My analysis suggests that the real death rates is 111% higher than that…

Some analysis of the ONS data for England shows that those under 44 look to have no extra deaths, compared with the first 12 weeks of 2020. C19 is impacting those over 44, with the oldest being the most impacted.

The ethnicity data is not as stark when matched to local population…might be socio economic

Data underlying Figure 6
Percentage of patients
Column 1 – covid 19
Column 2 – Viral pneumonia
Column 3 – Matched to local population

White – 66 – 88 – 76
Mixed – 01 – 01 – 03
Asian – 14 – 06 – 13
Black – 12 – 03 – 07
Other – 06 – 02 – 02