Interesting time to steepen the curve by opening up even more.

In the wave that started in September there was a lockdown that started on 5th November.

On the graph below, that aligns with 18th July ( today ) of this new wave.

The decisions by government could not be any different !

Does anybody know where to get testing data by age group ?

I am looking to understand positivity by age group.

Found it.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998393/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w26_v3.pdf

Table service is great 🙂

If they published the ONS surveillance testing data at the same level of granuality that would be a way to analyse it. Unfortuntely I do not think it is published at that level.

Piemonster, it would be good to get some data to prove that but instictively that is possible.

Latest Variant Report Published

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

Page 13

This is a summary of the table. It suggests a 65% reduction in hospitalisations and deaths for those aged over 50 who test positive and have been double vaccinated.

I do wonder if the average age in the 2 doses group and the unvaccinated group are the same. This would impact the results.

A bit worrying that there is still a 1.4% chance of dying after testing positive and being double vaccinated when aged over 50.

Also, not all of the people who tested positive will have either receovered or died, so the 1.4% rate will increase.

Bolton update.

Deaths remain low – no longer the concern due to vaccination.

However, the number of people on ventilators continues to rise as admissions increase once again.

Rumour is a 4 week delay.

https://www.ft.com/content/fa7c25be-d3df-4edd-b86f-b86780b28f95

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15241170/boris-johnson-june-lockdown-delay/

The explaination of the delay is important to manage expectations

My hope – we need to finish vaccination rollout which will take 4 more weeks and then we will open up

My fear – we need 4 more weeks to get more data and will update you again in mid July.

My worst fear – we need to lockdown again if cases continue to rise

Bolton deaths did not go up again which is very good news.

I think we can be certain that the link between cases and deaths has changed significantly. This is due to vaccination.

Admissions have dropped despite cases remaining elevated. I do not know the cause of this.

Tired, I agree that the relationship between cases and admissions has definitely changed.

I think there are 2 factors driving this change.

1. Vaccination.
2. An increase in the proportion of cases in those under the age of 20. This may be due to the variant or due to increased testing of that age group or both.

The table below is for England. It shows that a higher proportion of positive cases are now coming from those under the age of 20.

I agree that vaccination protects against the delta variant. Not 100% protection, but good enough.

We need people to keep coming forward to get vaccinated to ensure we avoid another problematic wave amongst the unvaccinated.

If unvaccinated people were randomly distributed across the country it would not be an issue due to herd immunity. However in the real world there are areas of higher vaccination and areas of lower vaccination. It is areas with lower vaccine uptake that might create a problem for the NHS if we completely unlock on 21st June.

Is that ‘all’ admissions, or confirmed COVID case admissions?

confirmed COVID case admissions

P.S the above explaination is my best guess. Just trying to put an explaination to the data.

This article suggests it has occcured in two year groups at one school.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/high-school-bolton-closes-two-20666292

This school closed for a two week half term and is now due to reopen.

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/haslingden-high-school-reopening-date-20746834

A possible explaination is that the surge testing made them go very high early on and so the cases numbers now appear to be dropping or levelling off.

If you look at case numbers in Bolton by age group, on a moving seven day day average you get this slightly confusing picture.

My guess is a lot of children stopped going to school after they tested postive or their classmates tested positive, which subsequently reduced cases for those age groups and their parents.

If this is the explaination then the cases numbers might well increase again when children return to school .

Good news on hospital admissions in the North West though…

This will mean that the relationship between cases and deaths changes significantly.

September 2020 Wave – All age groups increased at similar times.

May 2021 Wave – Only the 18 to 65 age group increasing.

This graph is plotting cases per 100k in the North West until the end of June.

If cases keep increasing at the same rate as they have over the last week, then the North West will have a lot of cases by the end of June.

I have not forecast July as you get the idea…

We have to hope vaccination prevents this forecast becoming the reality.

Bolton updated to include Ventilators.

Bolton cases, hospital admissions and deaths plotted with latest data. (7 day moving average)

Admissions look to be dropping lately, which is promising.

So far deaths not rising, which is promising.

with regard to was the origin of Covid – this is my logic:

If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Salisbury I would assume it leaked out of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down by accident until proven otherwise – some would blame the Russians

If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Wuhan I would assume it leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS: Hubei Engineering and Technology Research Center for Viral Diseases by accident until proven otherwise – some would blame frozen food

theotherjonv – also vaccine protection appears to improve with time based on what we know about the first dose, so it might be the case with the 2nd dose as well.

piemonster – I am not sure to be honest

Revised version bases on admissions being overnight stays.

QUOTE 1

“A preprint paper released by Public Health England on 22 May showed that between 5 April and 16 May the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective, two weeks after the second dose, against the B.1.617.2 variant…The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose…”

AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:

The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.

We know from the new data that 0.56% of people that have received 2 doses and test positive are hospitalised.

38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.

So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measures being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the vaccines (assuming everyone gets their second dose):

38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 0.56% = 56,764

38,000,000 X 1/3 = 12,666,666 people got the Pfizer Vaccine
Of these 12% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 12,666,666 X 12% = 1,520,000
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 1,520,000 X 0.56% = 8,512

January 1st to 31st March, 170,221 people were hospitalised for Covid as comparison.

This suggests an A&E visit is not an admission.

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergency-care-services/when-to-go-to-ae/

Would be good if it is overnight stays as my numbers will improve a lot.

2/ Does anybody know if the NHS Covid admissions that are published are A&E visits or overnight stays ?

This suggests an A&E visit might be an admission but it is not covid specific. I agree with theotherjonv that it would be better if it were overnight stays, but not clear.

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/hospitals/going-into-hospital/going-into-hospital-as-a-patient/

2a/ I agree deaths is not reliable so I did not put in original statement

1/ 60% is according to this – https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

2/ 2.8% hospitalised – 5 people hospitalised out of 177 cases – will be interesting to see the rate at the next release

Page 11 – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/990339/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_13_England.pdf

2a/ The data at this stage suggests 1.1% of cases still go onto die after 2 doses (2 deaths out of 177 cases) but not enough data to be confident of this rate.

Page 11 – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/990339/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_13_England.pdf

Just noticed quote 2 referenced first dose, so I was wrong with what I went on to say.

According to this:

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

QUOTE 1

“The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose”

AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:

The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.

We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitalised.

38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.

So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measurea being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the Oxford vaccine:

38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 2.8% = 283,733

QUOTE 2

But both vaccines were only 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2 three weeks after the first dose, whereas they were 50% effective against B.1.1.7.

AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:

The vaccines prevent 33% of the symptomatic disease (lets use effectiveness for calculations)

We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitilised.

38 million people have been vaccinated.

So if we open back up and it runs riot through the population this is what will happen to those that have received a vaccine:

38,000,000 people have been vaccinated so far
Of these 67% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 67% = 25,460,000
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 25,460,000 X 2.8% = 712,880

Since the pandemic started, 466,027 people have been hospitalised.

I have an indoor party to attend with 150 people from all age groups and multiple countries at the end of June.

I will be happy to attend if government says we can. Not sure if everyone that is invited will feel the same.

I will be happy if they say wait an additional 6 weeks until 90% of you have had 2 vaccines. I expect more people will be happy to attend in this scenario.

This also needs to go into the mix.

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

If it were up to me, I would wait until 2nd August until 90% have received 2 doses. It has been over a year, what difference does 6 weeks make.

P.S 2.8 million last week so 5.6 million per fortnight – I am being optomistic – it also makes the maths easier 🙂

I agree theotherjonv, people are likely being admitted with more mild cases due to improved capacity.

By 21st June another 9 million will have received 2nd dose, so 60% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.

By 5th July another 6 million, so 70% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.

By 19th July another 6 million, so 80% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.

By 2nd August another 6 million, so 90% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.

This assumes people keep coming forward at the same rate which i think we should expect.
( I am very glad we have high vaccine uptake in the UK ! )

If there is a delay, it would only be 4 to 6 weeks.

Boris is an optomist, I do not think he will delay.

We will still have some hospitalisations and deaths but the flu did that before Covid and we did not close down society.

This is another piece of useful analysis.

It shows that hospitals in the North West now have more young people being admitted as a % of total admissions. ( Due to the vaccine reducing cases in the older generation ) ( Bolton is unavailable )

It is interesting that a lot of hospitalisations have always been people under the age of 65.

When you combine this information with the growth rate of cases in Bolton, and % of cases resulting in hospitalisations, the forecasting models might show the NHS getting overwhelmed this summer if we fully open back up in June.
( Death rate would be significantly lower due to vaccination of the older generations and so would not be the reason for slowing the opening up )
The solution would be to delay a little longer for more people to have received two doses.
( They should be able to estimate what percentage of the population need to have received two doses )

I think too early to draw conclusions but good that it is published.

I expect it will be updated in the next release.

Also, I do not think it should be used in isolation to draw conclusions.

Analysis of the India variant

Page 11 in the PDF

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/990150/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_13_England.pdf

The Bolton admissions data that is due to be released on Thursday will show admissions are increasing. The important point is whether they are increasing as quickly as the cases.

Clearly Bolton has more admissions than last week as discussed in this article…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368

The next question will be whether deaths increase, and how quickly they increase. We will have to wait a couple of weeks for that to become clear.

Try again with the graph…

It will be interesting to see what happens to hospital admissions in Bolton in the next couple of weeks.

In theory the historic relationship between cases and hospital admissions will not occur in this wave due to vaccination. Not off to a good start though…

Tired, I agree in that context.

CO-CIN did say this in bold text in their document:

Important caveat. The risk of exposure has reduced since early January so the progressively lower number of PCR positive symptomatic cases admitted to hospital after vaccination is likely to under-represent a signal of vaccine failure.

-Total UK Admissions are plotted per 100,000 from 28th Jan to 12th April – This is 75 Days. Data source is the NHS

-Hospital Admissions After Vaccine ( This is the absolute number )- This is also 75 days . The data is taken from the CO-CIN Study. Day 1 = 75 and then declining 3.1% per day for the first 25 days taking cases to 35 the same as the CO-CIN study. ( I have ignored the increase in cases as I believe that is due to people reducing their social distancing after vaccination ) From day 25 I have the plotted a daily decline of 4% which means at day 50 there are 12.5 cases ( Same as the Co-CIN graph looking a few days both side and averaging ) and at 75 days there are 5 cases, again same as the CO-CIN Study.

This comparison suggests that hospital admissions are dropping at the same rate for people with and without vaccination.

Post Vaccine is the absolute number as per the CO-CIN graph. The scale on the right.

Total UK is per 100,000 – scale on the left.

Worx are great. We named ours Shawn.

I would look for a club that competes at Henley in the Fawley over the last few years. Henley is the top UK regatta – a win here is a big thing in rowing.

https://www.hrr.co.uk/henley-results/search/0/12768/0

I would go for Tideway Scullers School by the looks of it near you. ( It is a club not a school ! )

https://www.tidewayscullersschool.co.uk/

The junior squad – https://www.tidewayscullersschool.co.uk/junior-mens-squad

The Junior beginners squad – https://www.tidewayscullersschool.co.uk/junior-beginners-squad

My dad coached the Henley crew to the Final. Henley is a bit far from Twickenham, although it a lovely stretch of the river !