The scenario we’ve forgotten so far is the Far East, as we were also fighting (and being beaten by in the colonies) Japan, allied to Germany.
With Germany taking over our Atlantic colonies, including Canada’s coaling ports in Newfoundland & Nova Scotia, plus having access to bases in the Caribbean, it’s probable that Japan would also have walked into British Columbia.
As a result, a more concerted effort against the US would have allowed bombing not just of Pearl Harbour, but of Seattle’s & LA’s aircraft industry and the US Pacific ports. The German fleet could have kept the US Atlantic fleet in their home ports – I think that the US would have been divided between Germany & Japan eventually.