Looking like a choice between no deal or what we have now perhaps? What do you think?
I’ve always assumed toys out of pram and no deal was the plan our side.
But I think the EU will engineer a minimal deal and a transition period. They’ll do just enough that May can claim a success.
It’s in the EU’s interest – they know that deal or no deal, the best of the UK – brains, businesses, investments, are leaving. An ordered transition and gentle let down for the UK (the death of a 1000 cuts) is much better for the EU than a chaotic departure and crash, which damages EU countries too.
The eventual outcome is the same, but a slower smoother transition is less disruptive for the EU.
If I was EU, that’s what I’d do. String the UK along.
If I was head of a bank or multi-national with assets in the UK and looking to move, that’s what I’d want.