NZ to win but might be close if Wales can remember to go forward before they go wide. Kiwis are missing the “go forward” of Keino and Retallick a lot.
I suspect Hartley is on the bench so that George can get rid of the perma-sub tag. George seems to be the better player, but Hartley first with George as the “finisher” is the best way to cover the hooker position over 80+ minutes. In ye olden days George would probably have been the starting hooker.
I wonder what the evidence is to support the use of “tactical” replacements. It is touted as helping to reduce injuries, but I’m not sure that it does. I vaguely remember that it was introduced after a Saffer admitted feigning injury so that his team could have a fresh player.
England by 20
NZ by 5
Scotland by 10
Ireland by 20