I’m in a tory held constituency which was leave at the referendum.
Have received one campaign leaflet – from the tories; wasted on me as I won’t be voting for their candidate.
No doorstepping by any candidates; I’m wfh for a while so unlikely I’ve missed any campaigners.
That suggests apathy on the part of candidates.
If there was ever an election where parties should be out there campaigning and drumming up support, it’s this one.

Is it a safe Tory seat?

If so many activists will spend the time in nearby constituencies that are more likely to switch. It’s all about maximizing impact with the time they have.

What’s the advantage of a progressive coil spring over an air shock?

If your bikes linkage design is linear, a progressive spring will ramp up as it goes through travel so it doesn’t bottom out all the time

I don’t pretend to fully understand this stuff, but isn’t the BBC in breach of, uh, something if BJ doesn’t agree to an interview?

They can’t really force him on, however it did seem like Johnson out maneuvered the BBC/Neil.

This call out is much needed, and the timing after the Farage interview is good.

They’ve pulled back some respectability from this in my eyes.

This would clearly be morally very wrong, but anyone know the rules around doing something like:

Setup a party called something like “Get Brexit Done Party” or “NHS Support Party”, do no campaigning and have zero intention of acting on anything.

Then run in marginals purely to try and suck up some votes from people who just read what’s on the paper and tick it?

I’m assuming this would be illegal in some way otherwise with the state of things someone would of tried it already?

If there isn’t rules in place then maybe their needs to be!

The Tories are not what they were.

Not at all, this new breed bears little resemblance to the party of old.

https://www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

but today every single advert for me on this thread is a Tory sponsored “cost of Corbyn: £2400 more tax every year” claim and himself looking as comrade as possible.

Or click on it, get the details and research into them to make sure they are lies. That way at least it’s costing them as much as possible to spout out the rubbish.

Average Tory lead is around 10%

There is 3.1 m newly registered voters

Of which 2/3 are under 35, and over a million under 25.

If this (out of date) poll is to be believed

With some decent tactical voting that 10% doesn’t look so safe.

Has anyone else seen the story that Raaaaaabs seat is now at risk? 50/50 he is going to lose it

Esher & Walton:

CON: 46% (-13)
LDEM: 41% (+24)
LAB: 9% (-11)

This is where the power of tactical voting really shows, just a few more Labour votes switch and his 23,000 majority is gone.

23,000.

Think how many seats have substantially smaller majoritys than that.

One question: How bad would the Tories have to be (or just Johnson) before the public turned their backs in disgust?

This for me has been the hardest part to deal with in this election. Obviously the way things work with FPTP does screw things up a bit, but my gut feeling at the start of this would be that pretty much all remainer Torys , especially in safe Tory seats would vote LD as a protest. The LDs offer remainer moderate Conservatives an easy way out, without voting for Corbyn. If the polls play out, they just haven’t taken that opportunity.

Which has led me to believe that the number of actual true moderate Conservative supporters is woefully low. Ergo a massive chunk of the population are either really just selfish, self centered nasty people, or just blind to what the Torys have become.

I really do have no idea how bad they have to get before people start to desert them.

How do those organising the TV events force them to attend?

Thats the challenge. What needs to happen is that not-showing gets empty chaired with a tub of lard and just a series of accusations gets read out for 30mins, presented as facts as they won’t turn up to defend them. It needs to be a huge disgrace to be seen avoiding something like this.

It has to be said, Andrew Neil is an utter cretin though

Can’t disagree more. I think we need journalists like him.

If others had given politicians as thorough questioning as him the country would be in a much better place.

I hope Johnson gets as much of a kicking, he’s on shakier ground.

Corbyn should of just played the ball as it was given to him. He surely knew that the questions were going to be brutal, so just accept the mistakes and don’t try and weasel out.

Neil has been fantastic with everyone he’s had on his Wednesday program. Really wish there were more people like him in journalism.

I see no reason why Johnson won’t get taken to pieces in the most spectacular fashion.

Labour might be in a position to form a government, with a different leader. If they choose opposition instead… well…

The DUP will give over if it comes to that I’m sure, without Corbyn having to step down.

I can only accept that I’m out of time.

Ah well, better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

Honestly, the amount of people undecided or who just haven’t even started paying attention yet is more than you think. That’s also topped up with people who don’t really care either way.

There’s still time to explain to these people the situation.

So let me get this straight, brexit aside, the tory manifesto is basically filling in potholes and curing dementia?

Not surprising, nothing to upset the boat like Mays dementia tax. Play it super safe and cure it!

Just reading in today’s Observer that the Tory’s poll lead has now increased to 19 points.

There has been a good spike of 1.5m young people Registering to vote.

If they are remainers mostly and in the right areas then it could make a big difference.

Keep going, it’s not over until the 12th.

So many people having a meltdown that they might have to pay £8.33 more a month tax if they are lucky enough to earn £82k.

The reaction when it dawns on people the sacrifices that will have to be made to avert climate disaster gives me such little hope for the planet.

Depressing.

Or don’t pay MPs at all.

Then they wouldn’t be in it for the money and its no longer a career option. We might get a better bunch then.

Paying them nothing would mean only the previously rich would be able to become an MP no?

On pying MPs – I disagree completely. they should not be highly paid at all.

I’m with this. Saying that paying them more would mean they deceive less seems naive.

I’d like to see monthly, publicly available online expenses receipts as well.

In addition to this other income should be declared and made easily available to the public.

CaptainFlashheart

Please let us run your interwebz. Please?

Britain’s opposition Labour Party was using a $20-a-month “basic security” service to protect its website when hackers attempted to force it offline last week and temporarily slowed down online campaigning, according to internal emails seen by Reuters.

Such entry-level protection is not recommended for large organisations at high risk of cyberattacks, but the messages show Labour has since decided against upgrading to an increased security package on grounds of cost

Cloudflare is very effective and very cheap. It’s used by 1000s of large companies.

The Labour site was useable during the attack, although slow. Cloudflare then kicked in a browser check to mitigate the attack.

Trying to make out that Labour are silly for using $20 Cloudflare isn’t enough is silly, as it literally was. The site stayed up and nothing was compromised.

It doesn’t matter if you want to avoid Corbyn having the power to do anything Milne&M&M&co want… it just isn’t going to happen. It doesn’t matter if your find the idea of Swinson as PM a painful joke, it just isn’t going to happen. All that matters is that Johnson is going to get his majority, unless you help stop his candidate in your seat. Hold your nose. Get your vote in. Make it count. Stop Johnson.

So much this.

People need to be speaking and explaining this to family, friends, work colleagues as well. Especially in the marginals. The time for silly squabbling has well and truly passed.

This article stuck with me

From Discover Magazine

Its people like me Labour should be targeting if they want to gain in the forthcoming election. I’m firmly remain at heart, strongly resent both the direction of the Conservative party and Boris’s role in swinging the referendum result to leave. I’m a socially liberal, economically conservative, globalist, centre right voter. But I now have nobody to vote for, other than reluctantly voting Lib Dem.

I totally agree that Labour should be targeting people like you. However not by changing their policies to suit the centre, but by explaining how their policies can benefit people like you.

For example:

Saving £30 a month on my bills isn’t going to make a difference.

Aside from the fact that just because something doesn’t benefit you directly isn’t a great reason not to support it, getting free fast internet to the whole country helps children and adults with their learning. This can lead to an increase in skills and employment options.

£30 a month might not be much to you, but for many people it’s a luxury that would be dropped quickly. Internet use is so important now for communication, lack of it can lead to isolation.

Free fast internet opens up working from home for more people. Business’s who are struggling to find local talent have more options when internet access is universal.

For those companies running online shops and services, it opens up more customers.

The country would benefit as a whole from this policy, including you indirectly.

Job seekers allowance – ‘Communism’?

Good List of marginal seats

If you, or someone you know lives in them, especially the ultra marginals, please have a word and get them to vote tactically.

They don’t want Corbyn, they don’t like Corbyn. Wakey, wakey.

Show them the policies, and a lot of people like them… yet still can’t bring themselves to vote Labour because of who the leader is.

He is voter repellent.

Don’t disagree, but the second a new person steps into his position the Tory smear canon will just change it’s aim and start splurting out the lies again.

The reasoning for Swinson saying she won’t work with Corbyn has some logic, but then you can’t really then blame Labour for not rushing to join an alliance with them after that.

Labour policy is a second referendum, which is literally asking the people what they want. So how can that be not honouring the people’s wishes?

I assume he means because we haven’t left the EU yet.

Coalition however is much more likely, but then LD won’t revoke.

…but they would support a second ref. So the worst case scenaro voting Libdem if they get balance of power is the same as the best case scenario voting Labour. (From a Remainer POV.)

Because with FPTP second place means nothing.

The focus has to be on winning seats, not getting votes spread across the country.

Why would it be moronic for a Remainer to vote for the only remain party on offer?

It’s been said quite a bit on here, but I really think it’s so important it can’t be said enough. Tactical voting is the only way Brexit is going to be stopped. The only way.

LD will only revoke if they get a majority government. This is incredibly unlikely.

In 2017 the split was:
Conservative 42.4%
Labour 40.0%
LD 7.4%

I know things have changed in the last 2 years, but a LD majority is very very far fetched. Coalition however is much more likely, but then LD won’t revoke.

The best bet is Labour getting in in some form or other. That way a 2nd referendum can happen, as they have stated.

This may not be ideal, but this is the way the system works, and this is how the dice have fallen. There’s no 2nd chance at this.

If Labour are the only true competition to the Torys in your constituency, if you want to remain, you have to vote Labour.

Yes. The line she is pushing is that neither Corbyn or Johnson should be PM. She seems to always mention both… but some only hear the bits about Corbyn.

I assume LDs are trying to keep the position that they dislike both Corbyn and Johnson to try and Hoover up Labour and Tory voters who are turned off by the leaders , rather than the whole party.

However strange some of Swinsons moves have been recently I can’t see them going into coalition with the Torys again. If they do get in that position for it to be an option, Johnson will still be PM and it’ll be Tuition Fees 2.0 but 1000x worse.

They rely on the society and infrastructure around the places their operations are. When we’re talking about corporation tax we’re just talking about where the company chooses to put its HQ and pay its corporation tax. They only need an address, 2/3 FTEs there, an airport and somewhere to have a board meeting once a month.

My original reply was to jjprestidge

jjprestidge
Source? Otherwise I’m calling that out as BS (knowing what we pay in corp tax as a business with 3 employees).

They have 3 employees, I’m not sure they are going to be avoiding tax in the way you are suggesting.

I suspect it is. If the market rate has dropped for 15 years in a row, raising you prices is radical. Might turn out to be correct but it’s still radical.

You kind of ignored my second paragraph.

If the market rate for ice creams has dropped, but you produce the best ice creams and can deliver them faster than the competition, you can still have more customer appeal.

Companies do not work in a vacuum. They rely on society and infrastructure around them. This is all influenced by governments ability to invest in them.

If you were an ice cream seller and you and all the other ice cream sellers have been dropping their prices for 15 years raising yours to levels from 10 years back strikes me as bit of a bold move!

It’s not as simple as this though is it?

Funds from corporation tax are then reinvested back into the country in many ways, such as transport/infrastructure (to move your ice creams to the customer), education (so people have the talent to create better ice creams than your competitor), income support (to enable you to have as many customers as possible) and healthcare (to ensue both the ice cream staff and customers are fit and well to work and buy)

By the logic that lower is better, then 0 is best. This tax deficit would need to be balanced elsewhere.

Not radical but still moronic. Have you ever thought what would happen to profits if corporation tax were reduced?

I don’t need to imagine, i can remember back to 2005 when it was 30%

The sky did not fall.

jjprestidge

Member

Labour also plans to raise corporation tax significantly, which is moronic. Most small businesses are not rolling in money

They are suggesting an increase to 26%

This is still lower than a decade ago.

It’s still far lower than it was under Thatcher.

These really aren’t radical policies.

Andrew Neil program tonight was good. I’d like all parties leaders to face him in a prolonged exchange.

Can’t see any of them coming out great, but at least it would put them to the test.

Out of interest, anyone have a rough guess on how many Scottish remainers are unionist?

…and there’s a clear reason why the LibDems could win this time:

Leave vote is split.
Revoke vote is not split.

Revoke is not split, however, remain is split, as Labour are offering a referendum which could lead to remain.

I voted remain, I believe we should remain, however revocation is not the path to that in my opinion, as it will hand over the narrative to the hard leavers that the system is corrupt.

In reverse, how happy would people be if the vote had been for Remain, but then Brexit party campaigned to ignore that and just invoke Article 50?

I might be wrong but the Remain, revoke camp looks a lot more organized and ready for a fight this time round.

Brexit: People’s Vote staff stage vote of ‘no confidence’ in chairman

Add to that the lack of parity between Labour and Lib Dems I’m not so sure sadly.