More Tory voters would turn out this coming May if it was a Genral Election.

Another way of looking at it is that an Autumn election still gives the Tories time to get rid of Rishi.

I think he’s toast. After May it will be obvious to the Conservatives that they’d stand a better chance in an Autumn GE with a lettuce at the helm. I think it’s odds on that he’ll be dropped.

Or maybe Sunak wants it this way, skulking off into the undergrowth after May’s carnage might be the least ignominious outcome for him. As politically unastute as he is, perhaps even he realises that if he stays as prime minister, the Autumn result will likely be even worse than the worst of current predictions.

Shame really, as I was quite looking forward to Rishi humilliating himself on the campaign trail.

“We can give you a timed or unlimited ban if you fancy a break.”

When the  fun stops, stop.

You don’t work for a betting company do you?

Back in the day we used to buy The Sunday Times and digest that over the week. Occasionally we’d get the Observer or Sunday Telegraph as the Times often sold out early).Now I get the news from everywhere, all the time.

Obviously I’m much more informed these days but not neccessarily better informed.

These days I read the Guardian and watch BBC and C4 news with the same scepticism that I used to (and still do) reserve for the Daily Mail.

Economost is a good shout.

It depends on the context in which the question is being asked.

Dazh is right, (did I just say that?)

Remember when David Blunket reclassified cannabis from a class C to a class B drug, (shortly after a period of relaxation of law enforcement for possession in Lambeth  / Brixton) a few years ago?

Synthetic cannabis (Spice and the like) filled the gap, leading to greater problems than had existed before, the synthetics being far more dangerous than the natural product. There’s still an epidemic of its use in prisons.

The smoking ban created a market for vapes, which the kids seem to love and whilst once they used to have a naughty smoke behind the bike sheds, now they’re puffing between lessons and not just the fruity flavours either, they are smoking cannabis oil and derived products, the use of which is becoming an increasing problem in schools.

Smoking is very bad for you, that much is obvious but deploying the legislative hammer can have other negative effects as well that are rarely taken into consideration.

Apparently the biggest factors relating to causing premature death is isolation and lonlness, more than any other specific health condition. I wonder what cumulative effect the closure of all those pubs, cafes and bingo halls after the ban came in had on overall health and mental wellbeing and shortened lives?

Ironically, just before jumping on here I was reading in the MEN. about Jillys / Rockworld shutting down in 2010,  the owner attributing its demise to the smoking ban.

I saw that Lucy Frazer clip, absolutely excruciating. I was never a fan of Kay Burley and she does still face plant occasionally (Mick Lynch interview was priceless) but she can be pretty lethal when confronted by an imbecile.

“You’d think it’d be difficult to make your predecessor Nadine Dorres look like an effective, intelligent politician“

Ditto for Liz Truss / Rishi Sunak.

“He’s done, isn’t he. It’s just a matter of how much he burns down before he goes.”

Needs a restraining order or suchlike.

With regards the election date, it occurred to me that if Sunak goes for it later in the year it will run concurrently with the US election and all the oxygen sucking and unpredictable  chaos that that will unleash.

“inkster – what is the relevance of referring to Corbyn?”

To make binners shudder, that’s all…

Though I suppose if Labour can make a swing from a pretty far left position to whatever you might call their position now and reap the rewards at the polls, then why can’t the Tories do likewise and ditch their failed populist experiment, a failed experiment that has gone on far too long and is no longer delivering any  dividens.

Not sure you’ll be picking up any dividends from the bookies either binners, though at 9/1 i can hardly blame you for having a punt. After all should you win, it would be a win, win, you’d cash in and have a much less competent leader of the opposition to contend with. The Braverman choice would be Labours best chance of getting a second term.

Braverman would take the Tories into the abyss and I doubt she would last the full term. I think Badenoch would sèe it through to the next election but as ever, it’s all in the hands of some old codgers in Eastbourne.

Happy for you to disagree binners but I’ll stick my neck out and say that Badenoch will be the next leader of the Tories and will be PM in 6 years time having steered her party back towards the centre.

Part of you knows I’m right binners, that’s  why you and others are so keen to paint Badenock as Braverman 2.0 when you know Badenock is clearly a far more formidable opponent for a Labour government than Cruella. A Braverman front bench would be another reshuffle of the same old dossers, whilst a Badenock front bench will have almost entirely dispensed with the old guard.

So if I were in your shoes (as a Labour party activist) I’d be praying for a Braverman victory as it would make Labour’s job in government far easier.

So place your bet binners, though I’d advise that you have a word with your other half before putting any money down as she generally seems to have better luck / judgement in these matters!  

As for Starmer, dull as he is, I give him credit for bringing the Labour party back from the brink. Considering the two ongoing conflicts in the world, can you imagine how big the Tory lead wold be right now if Jezzer was still in charge?

“Actually, I believe the bottom line is to finally start shifting the country away from the right wing populist fever dream it seems to have found itself in.”

I think the country shifted past that point some time ago…

“Getting rid of the Tories does no good if it ensures a disappointing Labour government ends up delivering a Braverman or Badenoch led borderline fascist government in 6 years time.”

I think the Tories will return to being a more traditional conservative party the second Lil’ Rishi gets the boot. The ERG and nutcases like Braverman are a busted flush.

It was interesting to see Badenock serve the Brexit mob their arises on a plate with regards her not going through with the ‘bonfire of the regulations’ Bill.

When criticised she said “I am not an arsonist, I’m a conservative”. Which kind of suggests to me that she has used the right wing of the party to get a platform and then ditched them once she has established popularity amongst the membership. 

Mistaking Badenock for Braverman 2.0 would be a very foolish thing for Labour to do. The only way Badenoch will not be the next Tory party leader is if the RW manage to obstruct her in whatever form of leadership election they contrive this time.

Suella Braverman will be the right wing candidate and that will alow Kemi Badenock to position herself as the ‘one nation Tory’ who can unite the party. Braverman is all bark whilst Badenoch is utterly ruthless. Her strategy has been to build popularity amongst the membership (where she has a huge lead) rather than rely on factions and cliques amongst MP’s. 

I think Badenock will get the tory party leadership this year and wll reuild the party from the ground up in much he same way as Starmer had to do with Labour post Cornyn. The ERG will be put out to grass and the red wall knuckle draggers will have lost their seats. A shadow cabinet will have to be assembled from the ranks of more centrist, home counties type MP’s. 

The right wing populist experiment is already over, even JRM and his ilk know that the gig is up, it’s just that no one has told Suella yet…

If Timbuktu became the meme for the back end of nowhere, the word Rwanda is destined to become the meme for a kind of abstract purgatory or an impossible dream.

I’m not sure Lil’ Rishi is going to even bother mounting an election campaign, it’s all about the giveaways from here on in. I was quite looking forward to watching him being eviscerated on he stump by perhaps the dullest man in Britain but I think he’ll just find a fridge to hide under.

A vote for Relapse / Revolt or whatever they’re now called is indeed a vote for Starmer but a lot of right-whingers will vote that way anyhow, if only out of spite. Tanks for the reminder Rishi.

The Conservatives party will undergo a complete self- immolation that will see Labour waltz into office though I still get the feeling that Labour are going to find it hard to win a second term…

Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014?

“That’s not really how these things work. The question is, what territory can the two parties maintain military control over?”

Eh? That’s just another way of saying the same thing Surely???

Was it ever realistic to expect Ukraine to regain all of the territory lost since 2014? I ask this because that has been the narrative behind western support since 2022 when in real terms, Russia had occupied a significant portion of Ukraine for the best part of a decade withoit much reproach. The idea that Russia would ever give up Crimea and the Dombas/Luhansk regions seems wildly optimistic to me, never mind the teritorrial too and fro of the last two years.

I can’t see Ukraine achieving anything better than could have been achieved through negotiation during the Spring of 2022. Some commentators have cited the instant and unwavering support of our very own Boris Johnson as having an effect on the Ukranians decision to commit to an all out war.

After all, it’s not as if at the time, out now redundant PM was looking for distractions from his own domestic issues was it?

I’m also not entirely confident about the 5 to 1 ratio of Russian to Ukranian losses that are being reported.

“I honestly think the worst thing for VAR is having referees as the VAR assistants,”

Yep. They look at an incident through the lens of ‘what would I have done if I was the ref on the pitch rather than doing their actual job.

For the price of an Anthony Ajax would have sold you 2 Kudus and you’d still have some change in your pocket binners.

Does Ukraine actually have the manpower to do much more than cling on by their fingertips? Apparently draft dodging is becoming an ever increasing problem. Russia now has more than 600,000 conscripted, (they started the ‘special military operation’ with less than 200,000).

Whatever optimism may have existed in the autumn of last year evaporated with the failure of this year’s summer offensive, the lack of territorial gains and the withering  body count. It doesn’t surprise me that young Ukranians are becoming increasingly reluctant to go and die in a ditch with little prospect of reclaiming any of the lost territory.

Looking back at comments from the first weeks of the war I posited that Ukraine would reclaim the lost territory West of the Dnipro  (North of Kyiv and Western Kherson) and it was just a question of how much territory east of the river that Russia would take. I still think that’s the case and can’t see Ukraine making any more progress from this point on. Maybe Russia will make more gains before a stalemate will be reached.

Talk of Putin’s  demise in spring 2022 were premature. Wagner were used as a stop gap whilst Russia took a year to properly mobilise and learn from the mistakes made in the early stages of the conflict.

In truth, the conflict did begin as a ‘special operation”, the intention being to remove the Zelinsky regime and impose a puppet government (they were never going to occupy the whole of Ukraine with less than 200,000 troops).

When the special operation failed it turned into a war that went badly for Russia in the first year but I think Russia knew it was going to go bad for them in the short term and were prepared to play the long game, (eerily similar to how things went for them in 1942, all be it with the roles reversed).

Depressing I know but the successes that Ukraine enjoyed in the north last September were a Chimera, as was the prospect of recapturing Crimea (something was heavily discussed on here during its summer).

The comparisons with Afghanistan don’t really stack up. The Russian losses in Ukraine eclipse those from that conflict but Afghanistan doesn’t have the same hold on the Russian psyche that Ukraine does. If this conflict ends with Russia gaining a third of Ukraine and not joining NATO then Putin will be able to sell that to the Russian public and he could outlast Zelinsky.

I’d love it to be otherwise.

Not sure if the youth of today are any more rude than my day (gen x’er). Maybe a little more self absorbed but we didn’t grow up under the cloud of social media, I find it hard to imagine how I’d have dealt with that and don’t forgat that the covid lockdowns will have affected them much more than older generarions. I feel for gen z, it’s like they’re a generation who are being experimented on.

If there’s a problem with the kids then the blame surely lies with those who are bringing them up and educating them, they’re kids after all and only a reflection of the forces exerted upon them.

Working in the Arts I get a lot of emails about educational opportunities working with youth but they always pivot around discussing mental health or exploring their identities (instead of exploring their imaginations). If not that it will be about engaging with climate change, which I wouldn’t deny is an issue but I do feel we are instrumentalising kids, projecting our fears on to them and leaving them traumatised.

I can’t remember politics playing much of a role in my education, I has a brilliant Art teacher who was a full on save the planet, Greenpeace activist but she would never have dreamt of projecting her views onto her students. I’m not so sure that’s the case these days.

Just because we know the world is a s*** show right now doesn’t mean we have to rope the kids into it, we project too much pessimism on to them.

A certain Pink Floyd song comes to mind….

“Maybe getting schools to really focus on teaching critical thinking skills and fact checking as a core life skill would help.”
Good luck with that mate… Critical thinking more likely to get you a detention these days and don’t forget that ‘facts’ are either alternative or a social construct.

Quite. I wish I’d bought one in the first place, instead of being sucked in.””

boom-tish….

Eucalyptus oil.

Put it on a cloth and dab the stain.

Advice given to me by bloke who installed carpet and it works like magic.

^^^^

Benny from Crossroads and Miss Diane.

Fiddling while Rome burns indeed… I work in the Arts sector and they dialled the fiddles up to 11 a while ago.

Though characterised as the Left I’m not sure it’s appropriate to call them that anymore. Their concerns have been bred within a University system that has become increasingly middle class and priveledged. The compact between the working classes and progressive students that had existed since the 60’s has completely dissolved.

They are as out of touch with reality as the Tory party they despise. 

“The WSL Chelsea v Liverpool is a really good match too. Liverpool are getting absolutely battered!”

Was certainly more entertaining than the Mens qualifiers. Lauren James was pretty special, 3 great goals and an assist, all with her ‘wrong’ foot and the pass of the match (with her good foot) to create the opportunity for the 5th goal. She’s got amazing technique.

Probably said already but putting t-shirts, shirts and sweatshirts on hangers and hanging them from a shower pole or pull up bar seems to do the job for me overnight.

Same with trousers, hung from trouser hangers (tk maxx type) with the pockets pulled out. Well spun beforehand obvs.

“I only saw the second half but United weren’t very good, were they?”

I was there tonight and in comparison to the first half, the second half was absolutely stellar.

I’ve been a few times this season and can confirm that Rashford is rubbish, gets the ball, faces the opposition, does a bit of strictly come dancing and that’s about it really. The lack of physicality throughout the side is chronic, they can’t even be bothered to pit a few fouls in, the only thing they’re likely to win this year is the fair play award.

The thing about the owner residing in Spain rings a bell. Popping in over the last few years I often got the feeling that the staff, good as they were, weren’t quite sure what was going on behind the scenes and looked worried for their jobs.

The biggest influence though has to be the consequences of coronavirus. During lockdown there was a massive demand for bikes but the retailers couldn’t source any,  I remember going into Harry Hall’s over that period and for months they had less than a dozen new bikes for sale and were glad to have anything to put on display,  second hand and bikes sold on order but not picked up yet were put in the downstairs showroom to make up the numbers.

Then the market crashed and the second hand market was flooded with impulse lockdown buys and the industry responded by going boutique with ten grand bikes galore, though perhaps that was because the low end market had vanished post corona?

I was in Decathlon a few months back and was amazed at what was on offer at such cheap prices and I wondered how traditional local bike shops could compete with such a high volume, small profit margin model..

Is Bellingham any good in goal? I say that because I can imagine him playing in any other position from 2 to 11…

I was there binners and it was awful,

I was there on Tuesday as well and I thought exactly the same as you, that Roy was playing rope-a-dope. Palace weren’t even playing for a draw on Tuesday, it looked really calculated, throw the cup game, give United supporters a bit of false hope and try for a result in the league.

Still, with Olise and Eduard out, I thoight a draw was the best they could hope for and that they’d be delighted with that but it seems Ten Haag was more than happy to hold Hodgson’s beer for him.

Eze was ace though but helped by United’s decision to give him the freedom of Old Trafford, I presume the man of the match award was shaped like a key?

Hammers looking better without Rice? Looks like they’ve spent the money quite well, new signings looking good with Mavrpanos and hopefully Kudus to come. JWP’s prescison a perfect fit for what looks to be shaping up to be a very physical,  low possession team.

Meanwhile, I got a ticket to OT yesterday, I turned up five minutes late, glanced at the scoreboard and for a while genuinely thought it must have been an early 2pm kick off and my mate had told me the wrong time.

Special lending operation.

Question for everyone really, Do you trust Twitter more now or before Musk took over?

Neil Oliver you say?

Remember when the Nazi’s burned all them books?

Remember when all those disco records (or more accurately, any record by a black artist) were blown up at a baseball stadium back in the 70’s?

Destroying other peoples s*** in a public setting sends out a pretty hateful message,

F*** around > find out, (as per morecash’s example).

Lots of talk about China and India on here yet the USA is exponentially worse when it comes to carbon footprint per capita.

Irony of ironies, Gina Miller has experienced the same fate as Nigel Farage, who has tweeted out his support for her!

@theotherjohnv

That’s the most thoughtful response I’ve ever received on here, especially considering the contention surrounding the topic in question.

I didn’t realise that LGBA was set up at Tufton St. Ordinarily that would be a red flag for me, as would taking seriously anything said on GB News or in the Mail etc. As I said, I found myself there because they actually interviewed Denise, they gave her a voice and provided context where the Guardian hadn’t.

Kimbers comment was interesting- ‘they literally reported the judges verdict on her victory & her statement after the judgement’.

For Kimbers, the accurate reporting of the verdict and Denises response was enough, for me it wasn’t. The Guardian reported accurately the outcome of the case but gave no real history or context. In order to know more I had no choice other than to go to outlets that were reporting in depth.

Perhaps that’s what LGBA found too, that they couldn’t get support or a voice in mainstream or left wing media so ended up having to do a deal with the devil in order to be heard?

I’d like to emphasise that Denise didn’t come to this as a supporter of LGBA, she was questioning what she though was an unethical, unilateral decision by a director in a group meeting (which is why I see a relevance to this thread topic).

Her issue at the time was separate and unrelated to the charity status of LGBA,  in your post you said that you would have challenged her on that too. I’m not even sure that she was aware of the charity status issue, or even the nature of LGBA at the time of the meeting that started all this.. Her issue was one of due process.

This issue is being played out within a left / right culture war, when in reality it is a philosophical question about the nature of things as well as questions surrounding tolerance, (your Voltaire quote.)

Foucault’s said that things have no ‘essence’, they are what is projected upon them and what happens to them. I’m paraphrasing but I understand that as we are what we become, we don’t become what we are.

Hegel said similar with his observations about being and becoming.  That’s not to say that our individual genetic make-up doesn’t influence what we as human beings become, but that’s difficult to quantify, whilst the idea that we are what we become is irrefutable.

@theotherjohn,

I certainly didn’t go to the Daily Mail for an unbiased perspective. I first went to the Guardian bit they didn’t publish any details so I went on a Google search and the Mail (and GB News) popped up.

I respect your right to your opinions in the same way as you respect my friends right to hers, only I’m guessing that no one has hounded you out of your job and orchestrated a hate campaign against you for your opinions.

My friend was not a member of the LGB alliance. An emergency meeting was called by a director at the Arts Council, where he announced that funding was being withdrawn from the LGB alliance because they were ‘far right transphobes’. This was done without due process and had no precident, it was merely the opinion of one director.

In that teams meeting (of 400) my friend merely questioned that decision, (that’s all). No one spoke up in her defence but over 100 of them comtributed to an internal email petition pitted against her. Some of the language thrown in her direction was disgusting.

She formally objected to the petition but the Arts Council kept the petition (and thus the harassment) up for a further 24 hours. It was on that basis that she won her case for harassment.

If you support Mermaids position in all this then that’s fine but if you hold another position do you think it’s fair to have a campaign of harassment organised against you and for you to be hounded out of your job? Do you think it’s fair to try and have the charitable status of another charity removed purely because you don’t agree with them?

And back on topic, do you think that it is right that Wings Over Scotland (another gender critical organisation) had their bank account closed?

As you mention, many of these organisations were set up in opposition to the position that Stonewall took regarding the trans issue. Could it be that Stonewall are using the influence they have within government and large organisations to persecute those who question their belief?

“If it’s the case linked then it really doesn’t take much imagination to see why they’d be all over that story like a rash.”

Yea, that is the case in question and you’re quite right of course.

Obviously you wouldn’t want to pollute yourself by going to any at those right wing outlets who actually reported the facts and interviewed the plaintiff (she lost hr job remember). Just as well we have the Guardian to do our thinking for us by not reporting the facts or interviewing the plaintiff.

Kimbers,

You have just implied that I am a liar. There is a difference between me accusing the Guardian of lying and calling a forum member a liar.

The article you posted confirms what I said.

A third of the article is given over to the Arts Council point of view.

All they did was quote what was Denise said to the assembled media after the case was one. They did not interview her.

The reason they didn’t interview her is because had they done so, Denise would have talked about the actual details of her complaint and they would have had to print it.

No facts pertaining to the case were mentioned in that article. The facts were hidden from view. That’s why it meets my threshold for cancelling.

I’m sure it was a nice article by the Guardian tj

I mentioned the Arts Council earlier. Last month someone who I went to college with and has worked for them for 15 years was hounded out of their job (for expressing a ‘protected characteristic’) . She took them to court and won.

I went to the Guardian to see how they reported on it and was disgusted by what I saw. Her case was very significant, you might even call it a test case yet the Guardian chose to print a very short article which gave as much space to the Arts Councils response as it did any details of the case and failed to speak to my friend, effectively cancelling her. They considered it a victory for the Arts Council because they weren’t found guilty on all the counts of harassment, (just the main one!).

The Telegraph, Daily Mail and GB News actually interviewed her and reported on the facts of the case.

To see probably the most progressive person I knew when I was back in college hung out to dry like that by the Guardian was truly shocking. To see her having to go to the right wing press (which I’m sure she never imagined having to do) to get a fair hearing was a bit of a watershed moment for me.

The Guardian is lying to you. Ask yourself tj, was that Guardian furnishing you with all of the facts or just offering a perspective on events?