I had a similar thing with a suspension bike that sat in storage for a few years. I basically had to strip it back to a bare frame and rebuild it from scratch. I replaced the drivetrain, tyres, saddle, grips, etc. first and got it running. On the first ride, the seals in the brake calipers gave up and soaked the pads in fluid. I binned the brakes and put on some spare ones I had. It went ok for a bit, but on the first cold day, the shock blew its guts and shat oil everywhere. I had that serviced, plus had the fork serviced (old U-Turn Revelation). By the time I’d finished, I might as well have binned it and bought a new bike. You are basically going to be building a bike from a bare frame, so best to price everything out and see if it’s worth spending that money on an old bike.

XPS 15 with discrete graphics?

https://www.dell.com/en-uk/work/shop/laptop-computers-for-businesses/xps-15/spd/xps-15-7590-laptop/bn79027

Live scenes from the paddock… the ONE time FP1 is rained off this year:#EifelGP | #F1 pic.twitter.com/7C8XuzUve7

— The Race (@wearetherace) October 9, 2020

Although our *national polling average* has Biden +9.8, our *forecast* of the popular vote has him ahead by "only" +8.0 instead. What accounts for the difference? Three small things: https://t.co/ajG88SznSA pic.twitter.com/rSoKKVb84x

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2020

When he goes will his high profile children – those named above – become social pariahs or will they attempt to present themselves as ‘victims’?

The trick with rhetorical questions is you need to contrast two things that are at opposite ends of the spectrum and mutually exclusive.

How long before his horse whisperers start telling him to start preparing for his
post-presidential life?

He has no horse whisperers. Anyone who disagrees with him gets fired. He’s living in a bubble where he thinks everyone loves him. That’s why he loves the big stadium events with his fans cheering him on. Having someone tell him, “Hey, tone down the hate stuff and try to win over moderates” is not in his DNA. Everyone he interacts with constantly tells him he is winning bigly because they are terrified of being fired if they tell him the reality.

This is based on the Fivethirtyeight forecast.

There we go, he’s far more ill than the carefully controlled video clips let on.

I think pretty much everyone understands that already.

He needed those debates to win.

The last debate was a disaster for him.

Plan B, to stay in power even after a loss, kicks in now

I don’t think “plan” is quite the right word. That implies he’s thought it through in a systematic manner. I think “reflex” is a better description of how he operates – even when he’s utterly beaten, his reflex is to just deny reality and accuse other people of lying and cheating. He’s always been like that, this isn’t a new plan, it’s just how he operates.

President Donald Trump said this morning that he will not participate in a virtual debate against Joe Biden, essentially pulling out of next week’s town-hall style event https://t.co/pj4EdGnTGc

— POLITICO (@politico) October 8, 2020

Regeneron’s antibody treatment was developed using embryonic stem cell research. Which will probably be glossed over slightly by the president, I’m guessing.

That would kill a lot of his support – is it public?

Embryos aren’t allowed to vote.

This was a major technological triumph in its day.

The latest poll from Trump’s favorite pollster is very bad news for him https://t.co/ORZlyGNgui

— Vox (@voxdotcom) October 7, 2020

But the language of power in the medieval world was most certainly French

And the English expression for a common language is lingua franca, which translates literally as…

You can’t pardon him if he hasn’t been prosecuted.

Bigger problem for Trump is that if you accept a pardon, you apparently lose the right to refuse to answer questions on the grounds of self-incrimination, so you can be compelled to testify and face charges of contempt or perjury if you are uncooperative. What the Trump family fear more than anything else is having all their secrets exposed so a pardon will make things really interesting.

As an example we have a younger lad in the office who speaks in this way and says things like “arks” instead of “ask”. This pisses me off if I’m honest??

You’re old. You’re supposed to be pissed off with young people. They’re lazy and their music isn’t even music.

It’s really only a step away from harvesting humans aborted fetuses for their blood.

FTFY

Comments above about how he will clear off as soon as the election is lost, I’m not so sure, I think he may concentrate his last couple of months on as much wrecking and destruction as possible.

Yes, the sensible thing to do would be to issue pardons for all his family and friends, then quit and have Pence issue a blanket pardon for him. In reality, I think he’s going to go completely off the rails and refuse to accept that he lost. Whatever is left of the Republican Party might be a bunch of nutters, but I think most of the cabinet secretaries and staff will know the game is up and tender their resignations in the hope that they can salvage political careers from the wreckage. Key thing will be whether Justice Department career staff and military staff quit rather than follow a crazy man.

slight thread hijack, anyone know why i seem unable to view embedded youtube videos from this forum? either on PC or on phone….

Are you logged in? They won’t show for me if I’m not logged in.

The slo-mo of bullets/following bullets was cool the first time (The Matrix and Lord of War), but now it’s just a lazy cliche. I find scenes like the beach assault in Saving Private Ryan much more watchable because it’s just people running around in the middle of chaos which I imagine what it’s really like. When I see the slo-mo stuff, all I can think about is that the director is just showing off his technical tricks.

Crede Bailey, the head of the White House security office, became sick with the coronavirus before the Sept. 26 Rose Garden event, I'm told. https://t.co/h6xtIOzCLD

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) October 7, 2020

OK, I’ll admit, I’m a Grammar Nazi

1. What you mean by “grammar” is mostly stylistic conventions, not underlying grammar in a technical sense. Stylistic conventions vary according to situation, so the way you speak in a job interview will be different than if you’re down the pub talking with your mates.

2. Languages evolve generation by generation. Young people experiment and the variations they develop then become accepted as standard as they grow older. Their elders think they are being “ungrammatical”, but they’re not really, they’re just pushing stylistic conventions, often in a deliberate attempt to distance themselves from old people. Then, when they’re old, they start complaining about the youth not speaking “correct” English. On top of that, the world has changed massively in the last century. For example, “computer” used to mean a person (usually a woman) employed to do the mechanical work of calculating mathematical equations, probably using a slide rule. Now we seem to have endless business consultant jargon bleeding into everyday language (a pro-active win-win scenario going forward, etc.).

Regional varieties arise when you have linguistically isolated communities, so the range of British dialects and the class-based differences is evidence of low regional and social mobility. The same for the United States, where southern regional dialects still reflect a lot of archaic British English patterns, but those were abandoned by British speakers who believe that Americans have bastardized the language. Now that everyone is watching the same TV shows and movies, the regional differences will probably be diminishing. The central role of social class has also been massively diminished too, so that should result in homogenization of language over the longer term.

I reckon he’s planning to steal it through faithless electors

That doesn’t work at all. The electors are chosen by the political party that wins the state. They are people who have a long connection to the party, it’s extremely rare for them to change their vote. What you’re saying is that he would somehow convince a bunch of staunch Democrats to switch and vote Republican.

I’m not sure the problem is Biden not winning, more Trump refusing to lose.

That would only be a problem if the popular vote win was within about 3% – that would mean that the results in toss-up states could end up in court for weeks. As it stands, the gap is enormous and Biden would have a solid victory pretty much immediately. The latest round of polls are pointing to a lead of 10% or more, so Trump needs to convince 5% of voters to dump Biden and switch to him. The polls this week are pointing to the opposite of that.

So basically, Trump has to win all the bronze coloured states (i.e. toss-ups), plus at least one or two blue states. If Biden wins Arizona (likely) or Florida (quite possible), Trump is finished.

The host’s reaction to this nuttery is priceless.

"It's incredibly selfish of older people or neurotic people who are timid & afraid & won't come out of their basements to confine children & young people to miss out on the most important part of their lives" – Fox News is now straight up blaming old & vulnerable people for Covid pic.twitter.com/mLhiwDHmrN

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 6, 2020

Most likely, supply chain is disrupted due to covid 19. There may also be increased demand due to fear of public transport.

Thing with manufacturing is that it’s vulnerable to a single failure. You cannot sell a bike if any single component is missing, so one factory that has to close due to a covid outbreak can cause huge disruption. Factories have to retool for new season’s models, so an outbreak in a factory equipment supplier can cause havoc. Manufacturing relies on a huge network of interconnected industries, so a problem in one country can cascade through the entire global supply chain.

Beyond manufacturing, products have to be packaged and shipped. If the factory making cardboard boxes has to close, that shuts down all their customers. If any link in the shipping chain is disrupted, that can cause backlogs that cascade through the system.

I’m not sure she shares the disgusting and racist views her repugnant husband does

plus who doesn’t hate xmas decorations?

Americans.

due to being a hardtail, as you go through fork travel the head angle steepens (probably when you need it most)

It steepens when you need it least – braking on steep descents. Suspension bikes do this, but it’s even worse. On climbs, they squat so the HA slackens, on descents, the rear suspension extends so the HA steepens.

Please god don’t let this be a Pamela Anderson type of tape!

It’s worse. She DECLARED WAR ON CHRISTMAS!!!!

I have a 2008 Giant Anthem which was designed for 80 mm forks. I run 130 mm Revelations on it, it’s a big improvement as a trailbike.

The “ripping the headtube off” thing is mostly nonsense. The axle-crown length of forks is in the ballpark of 500 mm, plus you have another 300 mm or so of wheel beneath that. A 50 mm increase in fork length is less than 10% increase in leverage, so the bike isn’t going to explode in flames just from that. A 20 mm increase is inconsequential.

Where you might run into trouble is if you take a lightweight XC frame, put longer forks on it, and then thrash it down rough descents and over big drops. That will stress the frame much more than just the longer forks, so you need to ride it sensibly.

Analysis: Trailing in the polls, Trump inexplicably doubles down on his least popular arguments https://t.co/zx8BW5miU0

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 7, 2020

I had a similar discussion at work a while back with a colleague who tried riding a bike to work but didn’t like it because of the “hill” that our workplace sits on. My view is that a hill has to be big enough that you can hide a building behind it and our workplace is on top of a rise. Despite me being right and him being wrong, he still doesn’t ride his bike to work.

So a hilly route would have to be one where your are surprised at what’s on the other side once you get to the top.

From Wikipedia:

February 30 is usually used as a sarcastic date for referring to something that will never happen or will never be done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_non-standard_dates#February_30

Utterly inevitable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54441986

Sources tell me that Stephen Miller is running a fever. He’s up to 34 degrees. ?

— Danny Zuker (@DannyZuker) October 6, 2020

He is always going for the biggest and greatest.

Trump Turning Down Pelosi’s Stimulus Deal Is the Worst Political Blunder in History

Why did he allow himself to be led by the nose into self-defeating positions? Obviously, Trump knows very little about public policy. He does have some grasp of self-interest though, and has frequently expressed his correct view that it lies in casting aside anti-government dogma and borrowing as much money as he could.

One explanation might be that Trump’s hatred and distrust of Democrats drove him to instinctive opposition. Trump thinks entirely in zero-sum terms, and habitually accuses anybody not working on his behalf of being motivated by a desire to defeat him. Once House Democrats passed an economic relief bill, just months after impeaching him, Trump probably assumed the bill could only hurt him. Or, at least, the fact Democrats passed it so willingly made it easier for right-wing ideologues to convince him that the bill would hurt him.

Trump’s zero-sum mindset is one reason he is awful at making deals. If he has indeed walked away from the House’s offer, he has turned down what may have been his last, best chance to win reelection. Presidents have made worse policy choices before. But it is hard to think of a president who has ever made a purely political decision so predictably disastrous.

This is another Biden +14, and the numbers are even worse for Trump in the part of the poll post his COVID diagnosis. I think we're starting to get more evidence now that COVID hurt him in addition to the debate. https://t.co/648Db5ziBC

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 6, 2020

At this point I certainly wouldn’t admit to a journalist/ pollster that I was going to vote Trump.

Interesting thing about that 14 point poll lead is that there are almost no undecided voters, which is a big change from a week or two ago. Trump’s support hasn’t really gone down, but the undecided voters have all gone with Biden. Trump needs to attract those voters away from Biden, but it’s likely that his crazy shit at the debate and this covid debacle are what helped them decide. If that’s the case, he would need to completely reverse direction in the next three weeks and show that he can behave like a grown-up. That’s not going to happen because he cannot acknowledge to himself that his behaviour is what’s repelling voters.

Four years ago, Clinton had a double-digit lead in early October too, but there were still a lot of undecided voters who eventually decided it was worth a gamble on a spectacularly wealthy and successful businessman to shake things up a bit. Those voters are now well shaken up.

Biden leads Trump by 16 points, 57 to 41 percent, in a new CNN/SSRS poll…
Obviously we're probably in outlier territory up here, though NBC/WSJ had Biden+14 this weekend and the sample is D+5https://t.co/0JeFgX4vV7

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 6, 2020

1) He started with the disease a lot earlier than he let on (probably before the debate) OR

They had a super-spreader party at the White House last Saturday. A whole bunch of people got infected.

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/10/05/white-house-not-contact-tracing-superspreader-rose-garden-event