Yegads it is stressful, and we’re still 3 weeks out. As far as I can see, if Kamala wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin she’s home and dry. Lose either Michigan or Wisconsin and she’d need to win either North Carolina or Georgia. Or win both Nevada and Arizona. Lose Pennsylvania and she’d need two of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina or Arizona (though not Nevada/Arizona combo as she’d be two short). Lose Pennsylvania and one of either Wisconsin and Michigan and she’s basically done unless there’s a massive upset in the Southern States (ie she might well win one of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, more than that would be a surprise..)

Complicated.

As said above, most voters focus on the micro issues relevant to them (usually tax) and the US is no different (other than being even more so). The fact that someone as obviously incompetent as DT is even in the running though is incredible. Fingers are crossed and really hoping that the Harris plagiarism thing that seems to have appeared doesn’t get traction..

Bump. Anyone have any experience of these? Did the OP get one? Any thoughts welcome

Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog

That’s not what I’m seeing. 538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster. There’s a couple that are more favourable to him, a couple that give her 5%. Also, a lot of the polls are also deliberately correcting for the Trump denial factor, ie people not wanting to admit that they’re gonna vote for him, on the basis that they badly underestimated this factor in 2016 & 2020, which meant he actually got more votes than predicted. Hopefully this anomaly has been dealt with.

Regardless the only polls that really count are the swing states. If she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she’s basically there. They’re all eminently winnable, particularly if the dems get the youngsters and ethnic minorities in the cities out to vote.

By all accounts the Dems have massive, professionally run operations in each of the swing states. The GOP was taken over by the Trump lot and unsurprisingly the feedback is they’re badly prepared and essentially relying on local red hats to do the work for them (read amateurs who don’t know what they’re doing) in return for some shiny DT merch.

I’m hopeful

The Long Mynd has some good trails. Certainly enduro-ish in that it is steep climb, followed by descent and repeat. Milton Batch is the best known descent. Long Mynd is on the A49 up from Hereford, which in turn links to Abergavenny and Merthyr by fast A-road. Also Eastridge Woods is worth considering. Good technical route through there, used to be venue for both xc and dh national championships. Slightly more off the beaten track but still easy to get to from A49

Trying to convince someone of faith they’re wrong or trying to ‘outsmart’ them is pointless and comes from ego – atheism takes a level of faith just like religious belief does. There is no evidence for or against any religion, it’s purely a matter of faith. We don’t fully understand the universe or our own brains.

This is patently incorrect. Whilst there is no objective evidence for the actual existence of an actual god (or gods), there is ample evidence to show what we are and why we’re here, and to debunk the ridiculous creeds that are spouted out.

Atheism is quite simply saying that there is no evidence of any God’s existence and that science has most of the evidence based answers we might require if we’re prepared to engage

Is the wife reception better or worse upstairs?

That’s a very, very different thread..

Mango Messiah

He’s not the mango messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!!

Its got conspiracy theory written all over it, hasn’t it? The tin hat brigade will be going bananas.

Looks like the yacht was genuinely sunk by a combo of vicious storm and taking a direct hit from a waterborne tornado. Even the Israelis would struggle to make that one up..

Earth covered flower pots? The earth will just magically disappear!

My wife operates a similar scorched earth policy when it comes to what should and shouldn’t go in the dishwasher. Her crowning glory, at the time of writing, was putting funkrodent junior’s beach buckets (still liberally encrusted with sand) through a cycle. Once we’d decided that sandblasted glasses weren’t ideal and replaced them, I discovered that the gritty little sods get everywhere. Took about five deep, deep clean before it was safe to use again. Despite that the top rack still grinds a bit when being pulled in/out

I suppose you think volume knobs can be set to odd numbers too. Freak

I too am an even number volume knob type of guy.

A colleague who was similarly enlightened, somehow found himself in a relationship with a young lady who would only have the volume knob on a multiple of five. Which meant that if it was on 10 and it needed turning up just a tad, the only mutually acceptable next stop was 20..

They weren’t popular with the neighbours and the relationship unsurprisingly foundered

I’ve been meaning to go there for some time. I’ve a full face helmet in the shed, unused for about 10yrs other than the colony of wasps that made their home in it a couple of years ago. If a visit is sorted I’m in in principle

I’ve got three. First didn’t sleep through until he was three. Then slept like a baby. Second slept through from about 4 months and she’s been fine ever since (close mate of mine had his first two at pretty much the same time, his first slept like a baby, so he was full of well meaning, but increasingly unwelcome, advice about how they were doing it. When the situation reversed with our second kids, I took great pleasure in giving him lots of good advice whilst he fell asleep in the pub), third – and here’s the kicker – completely blindsided us. He started sleeping through after about 4 months, but at 2 years old started waking up 3-4 times a night. This went on 4 two years. We tried everything, but it was just how it was. However he would pretty much go straight back to sleep. My eldest would only drop back off being driven in the car, and would then wake up as soon as I went to put him back in his cot (aaaarrrgghh!)

So in short, 3 kids, three very different experiences. I can only repeat what has been said above, that they go through different stages and often there is very little that we parents can do about it. Remember that they are all different and that what works for one (even in the same family) won’t necessarily (read probably won’t) work for another.

It’s hard. Sleep deprivation as a parent is pretty much akin to torture. Good news is it won’t last forever! Good luck!

Kinda strange really as he was credited with taking down a lot of the New York mafia back in the day, which is a hell of a thing to have on your CV.

I guess it goes to show that nobody is incorruptible or can fall victim to thier own greed/ego.

Rudy was at the heart of the attempts to blackmail Ukraine. He knows some very dodgy Ukrainians and Russians. There is a theory that he aligned with the Eastern European / Russian crime gangs. They gave him a lot of the inside info he needed to make serious inroads into the “Italian” mafia in NY. Of course when the bosses are banged up and their crews in disarray, the Russian/Ukrainian/Eastern European mobsters move in. No evidence to back it up, but it is credible. And of course at much the same time the orange sh1tgibbon was financing all his deals through dodgy Eastern European banks controlled by much the same people.

Makes you think…

In all seriousness though Kramer, you’ve walked into (through no fault of your own) a politically sensitive subject. There are those (myself included) who see heavy forum users – who for the most part would think very little of dropping 100s, maybe 1000s, on bike kit – turning their noses up at supporting such a valuable resource, for what works out at approx 80p per week.

At the end of the day singletrack is a tiny company, struggling to survive in a media world that has been absolutely decimated by a perfect storm of Google and the Internet in general taking away the ad revenues on which it relied (I’m in no way associated with singletrack, but have worked in print and online media for most of the last 25 years so know what this is about). If everyone who used the forum regularly subscribed they’d be reet. As it is there are lots of us (me included) who are worried that such an incredible resource of insight, humour and fun might disappear. Hence the slightly regrettable tone of the earlier posts.

Anyway, I hope you do decide to subscribe. You’ll be supporting a valuable resource and if you buy stuff related to outdoors, cycling, home entertainment etc etc (there’s a shed load, singletrack have done a deal with an aggregator of these things) you’ll make the subscription cost back and then some!

Give me a minute to get the tea on and rustle up a packet of biscuits..

Welcome to the North, good choice! You’ll find lots of touts offering unofficial parking in the vicinity of the stadium. As far as I know this is both safe and relatively cheap, the cricket stadium (where your gig is) and the Man Utd stadium are practically next to each other so there is a massive ‘local economy’ around car parking. There is no road parking within a decent walk as it is all controlled parking when matches or gigs are on. The alternative is to park on King’s Road near Stretford tram stop and take the tram one stop to Old Trafford which is right next to the cricket ground. Of course this means getting caught in the tram queues on exit. However that option is probably better than the traffic jams getting out of the carparks and heading South on Chester Road (which is a huge bottleneck as it is one of a few roads that cross the Mersey) or West through Trafford Park. If you don’t mind a walk it’s about 20mins to get to the Southern end of Kings Road (nr Stretford tram stop) where you can park for free, so could park up, tram it to gig and then walk back to car afterwards

That looks the bollox. It was on my final two before I went with the Banshee Paradox. Still lust after one though. One day..

Nice retaining wall, but that lawn! And the less said about the hedges the better 🤣

Looks like a good cause to support. I’ve gone for the buy four get one free option. Hopefully lots of people chip in to support and (maybe) win a bling bike.

Excellent thread!

I got into indoor roped climbing in early 2000s, used to go The Castle in London. Got to 6b/6c level. Did a few 7a as well. Then I moved up North and family got in the way.

Last year my daughter and I went to the Depot in Manchester for a look see, and apart from a finger injury and Xmas getting in the way, have barely stopped. She’s doing lots of reds now (V5) and starting the purples. I’m on blacks and pinks (V3-5). I could use dropping about 10 kilos in weight!

We’re planning on bouldering outdoors in the summer. Any advice on good Dark Peak locations with decent mid-level problems would be welcome!

Also, any advice for more aged people on a) training and b) recovery would be great 👍

Yup. It’s even more disconcerting when one side twists off in your hand as you hop up onto a kerb on the way to the train station…

Apropos of nothing, years ago me and a mate hooned down Highgate West Hill in London (long, steep and with speed bumps that we jumped) on our mountain bikes. At the bottom we slowed and went to turn right onto Parliament Hill fields. As my mate stood up to pedal the bar just snapped in his hands. Twenty seconds earlier and he would have been hospitalised at best.

Bars do snap. I don’t trust carbon, as said above can suffer internal damage with no obvious external signs. Also you don’t know how well it’s been laid up, how much glue v carbon etc etc.

That said aluminium is prone to fatigue (my mate’s bars were aluminium). The answer is obviously to make bars out of pig iron!

Nice jacket. But personally I wouldn’t wear something the colour of tarmac….

Doesn’t matter to me, I’m colour blind. Pretty sure there are two other colours for those that care about such things

I suspect that the comment re colour was to do with onbike visibility, in that a tarmac coloured jacket is less likely to be seen by a driver than a neon yellow (other bright colours are available) one. Not a dig at your sartorial tastes. It’s a nice enough colour but I do agree with Mr Outandabout that when riding on the road (and indeed for mtb should you ever need to be rescued) a bright jacket makes a lot of sense

What tyre pressure for…? 🤣

As always, myriad of factors at play, terrain, tyres themselves, rim depth/width, riding style, rider weight. All of which makes it highly subjective and without understanding the above (and more) about each individual making suggestions it’s hard to get a coherent understanding.

My take is as low as you can get it without tyre rolling/being unseated/puncturing. Bearing in mind the impact on rolling resistance as the tyre gets softer. Random psi recommendations on their own are largely pointless

For me it’s simply sit down at a table in a restaurant. Works every time. There can be swarms of waiters in the general vicinity, but I am stuck in some kind of vortex that makes me invisible to all of them. I’m used to it now and at the least make sure I get the drinks order in when being seated so I don’t die of thirst in the meantime

Blimey, that Lesley Judd clip, sheesh! Love Fred Dibnah though, that overhang at the top of the chimney is mental and he’s clearing planking out the way with one hand whilst trying to clamber on!
In the early 90s was travelling and spent time in Holland. Became mates with an Irish fella who was a steel erector working on all the tall buildings going up in Amsterdam. He was adamantly opposed to harnesses, or any safety equipment really, convinced that it got in the way and made it more dangerous 🤷‍♂️

Blimey, that Lesley Judd clip, sheesh! Love Fred Dibnah though, that overhang at the top of the chimney is mental and he’s clearing planking out the way with one hand whilst trying to clamber on!
In the early 90s was travelling and spent time in Holland. Became mates with an Irish fella who was a steel erector working on all the tall buildings going up in Amsterdam. He was adamantly opposed to harnesses, or any safety equipment really, convinced that it got in the way and made it more dangerous 🤷‍♂️

Bridget (puppy) and Bonnie (labxshepherd). Six months together before Bonnie passed away last year aged eleven. Very sad but Bridget picked up a lot from the older dog. Including the fact that for years Bonnie would sit on the bed whilst we read our lad his bedtime story. For a few days after she died there was an empty space and then suddenly Bridget appeared and lay in the exact same space. Very emotional!

Seen the first two now and thought it was excellent. So long since I read the book that I can’t identify any changes of sequence/location/character, but thought that they’ve got a across the cultural dynamics, the politics, the Japanese character and the simmering violence very well

Very good, loved it!

The end of a thoroughly underwhelming career. He was brilliant when he could be arsed, which unfortunately was very rarely. At least someone like Gazza never lived up to his promise because he was out getting leathered and having a right old laugh. Pogba just spent his time posting selfies of his latest outfit/jewellery/haircut on Instagram

Lest we forget this is a man who won four Serie A titles in a row with Juventus and two Coppa Italias (I think) as well as Europa League with Utd and a few runners up medals too, including Euro champs with France. And of course a World Cup with France into the bargain. A sterling career by pretty much anyone’s standards.

That said I totally get where you’re coming from. Most of the above was early in his career and the player who could, maybe, have been an all time great, just seemed to go off the boil. Getting dropped into the minefield that was (still is??) Old Trafford at that time didn’t help, nor did injuries, but yes he did seem to lose what little motivation he had some time ago!

Was the book based on the true story of William Adams?

Certainly inspired by. By all accounts Clavell saw the story is one of his daughter’s school history books.

If you’ve not read it, it’s brilliant. I’ll be starting the series with my son on Saturday. I was going to say no spoilers, but I’ve read the book about 6 times (albeit not for a few years).

Clavell was an interesting man, a prisoner of war for years in WW2 in the Changi camp (1 in 15 survived), he came out fascinated by the Japanese character and why they behave in the way that they did.

His first book was called King Rat and is a loosely autobiographical story based on his time and experiences in Changi.

He also wrote books about the founding of Hong Kong (Noble House), the opening up of Japan to trade (Gai-Jin) and the Iranian revolution (Whirlwind) amongst others. All worth a read

what is it with all these big cycling companies financially struggling. I thought cycling was booming.

Blimey. Where to begin??

In brief, Covid = big uptick in demand, combined with messed up supply chains. Prices ⬆️ on everything combined with massive over ordering as most assume the boom was here to stay.

Then demand collapses as buyers are sated and increasingly skint and loads of companies, retailers etc are landed with stock they can’t shift that they ordered a year ago..

In the case of Wiggle you’ve got a parent company that borrowed huge amounts of money at very low rates, who are now effectively busy because the loans have come up for renewal and they can’t afford the higher interest rates.

Lots more of this to come unfortunately

I’m a massive fan of the book, but was always slightly leery about whether it could actually be filmed in a way that would do its complexities and sub-plots justice. Similar I guess to Flashman (though any adaptation of that would need his commentary as that is what makes them so good and so funny). However all the ‘noise’ around this makes me think it’s a must watch

*heads off to dig out Disney+ subscription information prior to the argument with the missus re who’s going to pay for it..

I would say cheap (but decent frame) with good forks, wheels and tires. Deore components work fine, just a little bit heavier.

As it happens I’ve got an XL Vitus Sentier frame on the classifieds right now, excellent compromise between the long, low, slack gnarpoons and old school xc type bikes!

“They haven’t had a warehouse in NI for a few years – all based in the Midlands – Jct 10 M6……”

This. The Northern Ireland operation shut down when wiggle bought them.

I believe the overall parent was massively in debt due to borrowing in the era of cheap money to buy/build property which a) hasn’t made the money expected and b) those loans have come up for renewal (like a 5yr fix on a mortgage) and the interest rates have gone through the roof. Lots of companies caught up in this vicious cycle. Massive multinational outsourcing and IT company Atos is in a similar position.

Whilst I’m no fan of Ashley, this bleating about buying a company and changing it is naive to the extreme. This has been going on forever. I don’t buy Cadbury chocolate any more because since the yanks took over the chocolate is even worse than it was. San Miguel isn’t owned by, or brewed, in Spain. And MG has nothing whatsoever to do with the UK. Or indeed its stellar heritage. You can’t even guarantee that the existing owner will maintain standards (see VW) it’s just the way it is. Caveat emptor is as true today as it ever was..

At the end of the day it’s all highly subjective. One man’s (or woman’s) bargain is another’s rip-off innit.

its a bit like the debates about whether people who use this website a lot should pay the equivalent of 10pence per day to use it. I’m of the view that it’s such an incredible resource that people who aren’t willing to cough that up should be ashamed of themselves. But it’s just my opinion. The freeloaders just have to suck up all the crappy ads.

Percentage type arguments at this level of expenditure are a bit misleading. After all an increase from £1 a year to £2 a year is a 100%!!!! increase. I’d also counsel that being sure of your facts won’t do your credibility any harm before you get called out for being wrong about a basic aspect of the charging regime that you’re having a pop at.

I do subscribe a bit to the headshaking around people who are willing to spend many, many thousands  on bikes etc who then complain about being asked to spend a few quid comparatively (see also threads about car park charges at free trail centres and singletrack subscriptions) on associated services. Reeks a bit of 1st world problems.

The bit about the owner getting tetchy is another so what, and not relevant to your original question. Anyway, running a business is hard work and the people who are willing to risk it all to roll the dice aren’t necessarily the most tolerant or diplomatic. Doesn’t mean we don’t have to do business with them per se. I know from personal experience that the aged bearded fella who used to spend a lot of time in hot air balloons is a heavy drinking misogynist who thinks nothing of dragging a young woman into his limo for a quick grope. But I’ve still procured services related to online entertainment from his enterprise.

Anyway, as much as I’ve enjoyed writing this rather than fixing my bike, the nub of it is you pays your money (or not) and makes your choice. Going on a forum such as this will merely demonstrate to you that some people agree with you and some don’t.

Do pop back and let us know what you decide in due course, I for one will hardly sleep until I know..

“I always end the call and ring the bank back when I get a call claiming to be them.”

On this, be aware: if it’s a landline call, the originating end has to terminate the call. So if you hang up and pick the phone up again, they’re still there.

This! My sister (who is a bright lady, medical consultant etc) got done a few years ago. Got call on landline saying problem with her card being cloned. Straight away they said put phone down and call bank on their official number. She did, dialling tone when she picked up phone, it rang, the bank answered it and that was that. Hook, line and sinker. Not only did she give them her pin, an ‘official courier’ came round to her house and took possession of her card to securely destroy it! And promptly took it to the nearest cash point! Her biggest worry was that she’d told ‘the bank’ that she was off abroad on holiday and that they now knew her house would be empty. I told her that these types of scammers don’t tend to go in for breaking and entering, which indeed proved to be the case.

Suspect that the decrease in landline use makes this less likely.

I had an incident in London where a cashpoint ate my card. I was trying to cancel the transaction when this guy rocked up, well dressed and polite, asked what the problem was, said he’d seen this before and what I needed to do was hold down three buttons with my left hand whilst inputting my pin with my right. I realised this meant that either he, or the camera in the fake cashpoint that they’d put over the top of the real one, would know my pin. I left it, cancelled card immediately and that was that. But I nearly did what he said, which would have given them direct access to my account.

I have however been done by guys flogging high quality speakers that were accidentally loaded onto their van – though in fairness they were really good speakers – and similar with guys selling leather jackets (that turned out to be fake). I was a lot younger though!

Woohoo! Great news, I’ll most definitely be there!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-spy-chief-expects-russias-offensive-fizzle-by-spring-2024-01-30/

We can but hope.

However, one of Russia’s main military strengths has been the comparatively vast number of people it can conscript. As Stalin said, quantity has a quality all of its own.

I really hope that Ukraine can use new capabilities, not least air assets, and lessons learned from last year, to really hit them hard. I suspect getting the money/munitions from the US will be key to that and I’m not holding my breath for that happening anytime soon..