rone – you’re in Bassetlaw constituency which is next to me in Newark.

There is canvassing in every constituency but it’s a physical impossibility to do every household. Jo White (L) is predicted to have >80% chance of winning so the CLP will have planned their current electioneering programme with that in mind. Volunteers/activists are a limited resource and the campaign team will have planned their activities to deliver maximum benefit from that resource pool.

Eleven days and 6 hours until voting ends so…plenty of time for you to be canvassed.

Boston? Don’t go there but, if you must, wear union jack shoes and ensure you assume a racist bigoted persona – you’ll fit right on.

tories – claim to be ‘the party of business’. What a larf.

Corruption – cheaply bought.

Opportunism – useless at it; betting on the date of the election – get your mates to do it on different parts of the country; lots of middling sized bets.

My soon to be ex-mp, jenrick, was prepared to push through richard desmond’s planned resi development in/near docklands for a £20k ‘donation’ – aka bung – so desmond could avoid the Construction Infrastructure Levy charge of c£40 million which he was liable for. That sort of benefit comes with a £5 – 10 million charge, surely. jenrick withdrew his approval when this ‘sweetheart’ deal was exposed.

Amateur.

Against a backdrop of ‘opportunism’, venality, corruption, inappropriate behaviour – and more – by tories, I think it’s essential that Starmer makes it clear by his actions starting from 5th July that anything and everything which doesn’t pass the smell test results in…sanction/ suspension/expulsion without any exceptions.

@somafunk – the recommended approach from the campaign team is just to listen politely, (gently) disagreeing, make excuses about more leaflets to deliver, say goodbye and then curse them soundly.

I would love to argue with them, tell them they’re wrong, invite then to put up or shut up; that would quickly get me suspended or expelled.

It’s really concerning that so many of them walk amongst us but the consolation is they’re a dying breed.

What a difference a day – or two or three – makes…yesterday our constituency leaflet/marketing guru took delivery of 750kg of our ‘phase 2 leaflets’ which feature polling showing Labour and tory tied on 39% in Newark – jenrick is the squatting tory incumbent.

Leaflets have been bagged, tagged and delivered to volunteers for a real push to get 20,000+ into letterboxes by close of play Friday with the balance of c15,000 by mid next week.

Today’s polling shows Labour down to 35% and tories down to 33%; Reform have gained – as expected. Tory support is only going one way and Reform are at/near their ceiling.

Newark is a very white constituency so it hasn’t surprised me that some doorstep conversations with the older generation and usually in the manicured gardens of their detached houses have quickly migrated from…yes, we need a change and whichever party forms the next government will have a big job on their hands to – all these boats, migrants, Palestinian protests, ethnic groups receiving preferential treatment, white people becoming the minority and on it goes.

The bigotry and racism is covered by only the thinnest veneer of normality.

Waveney Vallley is a new constituency; it’s 1 (one) of 630 seats.

The polling – and result – there is an irrelevance.

@dissonance – I would be very surprised if binners’ campaigning activities did anything other than promote the labour candidate in his constituency and labour’s general manifesto commitments.

In my constituency, there hasn’t been a single comment about Corbyn on the doorstep or in campaign events or at local markets.

IF jenrick, who is now in a very close fight to retain his seat, thought there was any benefit to him from referring to corbyn he would have done it by now.

He hasn’t; conclusion – corbyn is now an irrelevance.

Your experience on the doorstep may be different.

@binners – how’s the electioneering stuff going in your area to get rid of the mekon?

I’ll get back to you about the other stuff – nudge nudge….

kimbers – the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.

In the context of the ‘accepted/recognised’ polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.

In saying that, I could be completely wrong; breakfast time on 5th July will provide the answer.

Was recently blocked from posting to jenrick’s FB page after I had pointed out that many of his recent claims about what he had delivered for the constituency were on the spurious to porkies spectrum.

His constituency FB page are now putting up more posts which can be seen only by the anointed few.

Hustings at Southwell Minster on Thursday should be…interesting! There have been some suggestions that jenrick may be a no-show as he’s on a hiding to nothing.

Leaflet delivery and canvassing continues – daily electioneering step count hit a new high of 25,200 last Friday.

Will Reform’s agenda include a commitment to free beer? That would show Nigel to really be a man of the people.

Overdue and much deserved.

Smoked haddock – dyed and undyed – with cornish spuds, chantenay carrots, broccoli.

Mongozo mango followed by Brancott Sauv blanc.

CNN NEWS online.

I know that binners and ernie are actively campaigning.

Anyone else?

I ask only because the noise and frothing is pointless; as the phrase goes…’actions speak louder than words’.

As a measure – the minimum rate for stuffing leaflets into letter boxes is about 100/hour. No need to engage with punters on the doorstep; just stuff and move on.

21 days until Independence Day; one hour per day x 21 days = 2100 leaflets per person.

IF you want to make a difference, get involved; it’s painless.

Alternatively, spend hours on STW and other media where your comments will have ZERO impact.

IF you want a better life for yourself – and family, if applicable – do something about it.

Doesn’t need to be active involvement on the doorstep – look at ‘phone banking’.

Enough for today; tomorrow, Thursday, will be two sessions of leaflet delivery followed by canvassing.

Been out all day doing…stuff.

What have I missed?

Some references to a post from Screwfix?

Debate?

sunak’s pre-recorded ITV interview?

Any frothing?

All that matters is what we will know at breakfast time on 5th July.

You – and everyone you know – can and will make a difference if they…

– use their vote; this, to me is the single most important consideration; people worked long and hard to secure the universal franchise; do not denigrate them by not voting.

– use the vote to elect the MP and party most likely to deliver what you want

– it won’t be a perfect outcome for anyone

– vote for change; vote for a better future for you and your family; that means…vote Labour.

From a statistically pure perspective – statistical validity is generally accepted when the sample size is 2,000 or more, subject to the sample selection complying with accepted selection criteria.

I’m not a statistician so will accept comment/correction from those better qualified than me/I.

TiRed, my post above re geoffrey cox’s constituency also applies to Windsor where Reform are polling 11.8%.

Compare notes on 5th July.

jam-bo, Reform are predicted to take 13.7% of the votes in cox’s constituency; most of that switch will be from tories.

At the same time, Labour’s predicted vote share is growing – everywhere – so I think it’s entirely possible that cox will lose.

Let’s compare notes on 5th July.

Haven’t been to Taylor’s – yet – but it’s on the list. Their wines and spirits are supplied by Ann et Vin which is next door.

Ann has been my local wine merchant of choice since she opened 20+ years ago so that’s a plus point for me.

@rone, go to electoral calculus website and search for Bassetlaw to see latest prediction.

In summary, Labour to win with 16% majority and likelihood of winning is 86%.

There are also predictions by ward.

As for farmers in Newark constituency, the NFU are showing support for Labour and our candidate got a warm welcome at the Nottinghamshire county show. Whether this will translate into the farming community voting Labour is an open question.

@rone re jenrick and trent valley flooding…let’s just say his performance and input have been unimpressive.

The lead has been taken by the district council and their initiatives to develop an integrated approach/policy with the EA and Canals & Rivers trust with jenrick trying to ‘jump onto the coat tails’.

That’s great – as far as it goes – but will need chunky central gov support. Whether or not that materialises is an open question.

Are you in Worksop? Clarke-Smith will have his arse handed to him on a plate.

My Portillo moment will be if – and, hopefully, when – Saj Ahmad beats jenrick in Newark.

The polls are showing this to be absolutely neck and neck, now one of the most marginal constituencies in the country.

jenrick’s majority in 2019 was 21,000+; his campaign this time is best described as ‘low energy’.

The constituency is a ‘non-battleground’ seat for Labour which means we don’t get funding from regional office or party central; nor do we get any visits from shadow ministers so our ground game has to be – and is – strong.

jenrick has deep pockets as do his supporters; local Labour is reliant on crowd-funding and a people powered campaign.

@susepic from Friday- apologies for not responding before now; it was nothing other than my personal view that a ‘seven way debate’ would turn into a shouting match.

Anything which allows for an meaningful interrogation of policies being promoted by any political party is to be welcomed.

If any of the debates produce more light than heat, that’s to be applauded.

I continue to leaflet and canvas; the countdown is on.

If any of you are not involved, please do get involved with your party of choice; mine is Labour so…donate, promote labour n your socials, deliver leaflets, talk to people on the doorstep.

There are loads of online resources available; if that’s too much of a faff, contact your local campaign team who will welcome you.

Pleae don’t do nothing; be active.

Neil – the better reference is ‘Tricky Dicky’ by Ian Dury…

Front page of The Times ‘Time for the tories to embrace farage’ says braverman.

Didn’t see any of it as I was out canvassing following an afternoon of delivering leaflets.

Two things…

i) on the doorstep in the Newark constituency there is little love for jenrick; polls are – literally – 50/50 in a seat where the tory majority was 21k in 2019. Reform and other minority parties are eroding the tory vote; strong signs of switching from tory to Labour. Taking down a/the right wing poster boy of the tories would be a real coup.

ii) seven senior politicos shouting over each other is/was, to me, a complete irrelevance; more heat than light so it was nothing more than frothing.

For you political betting people…how do I find the odds of the tories being the third party?

As at last night there were c80 seats without a tory candidate which suggests to me they’re struggling to find ‘credible’ candidates.

binners – are you still taking bespoke commissions for artwork?

Ah, salvador (dali) please produce for me your interpretation of anything by vermeer.

Huck, that sounds pompous and pretentious.

I think you know what I mean.

Let me know; it will be for elder son who lives in Lincoln so possibilities could include…Lincoln Cathedral, the Lancaster bomber memorial sculpture, original WW1 battle tank as designed and built in Lincoln, Red Arrows (Scampton or Coningsby).

There is a possibility of a second piece – for me daughter who is also Lincoln based; theme unknown as yet.

Happy to discuss via DM or phone; let me know which is best for you.

I never cease to be surprised by the ability of various members of this forum in their attempts to ‘manufacture’ issues.

I’ll continue living in the real world – where most people exist.

The ‘relevance’ of political assassinations 140 years is…what?

To answer my own question, it’s a complete irrelevance.

Two weeks on from this thread being opened – DT78, have you done anything yet?

Clearly not wishing anything adverse to happen to you and Mrs DT – what would happen if you and your wife died in a road accident and child/children survived before you made a will?

Unlikely that would happen? Yes.

Impossible to happen? No.

Legal guardianship for children and a properly drawn-up will are, IMO, absolutely essential.

Dithering and not sorting is irresponsible.

I was just to going to post about that.

No doubt there will be another ‘issue’ shortly which will produce loads of frothing – piss’n’wind – about something which is irrelevant but that won’t stop attempts to manufacture a story out of it.

The post refers to it being ‘…a top priority’ which is different to ‘the top priority’.

There is no contradiction.

RIP.

His memory will live on through Kevin Sinfield; if only more people could have such an incredible best mate.

Within the Labour party the message is that the tories have much more money than us which is probably true; it helps the central messaging and the continued appeals for donations.

Is there an election?

Blimey. Next thing, someone will be teling me Joe Cocker is dead.

Anyway, what about that Diane what’s her name?

This is going a bit off topic.

Dialling in a report from the shires – where the GE will be won or lost; no comment about or reference to Diane Abbott from anyone on the doorstep during two canvassing sessions.

No comment about her at the market stall before canvassing; jenrick and a handful of his acolytes hung around for a while before acknowledging they were out-numbered and cleared off. They had nothing to say about Diane Abbott – or anything else.

Will be canvassing in two constituencies on Sunday and predict…no-one will refer to Diane Abbott.

Maybe I’m missing out on those constituencies where it’s a discussion matter – maybe I’m not as it’s a non-issue.

Hmm, wonder which it is?

For those who think it matters or has any relevance – carry on frothing.

Have a look at Sunday’s front pages – nothing.

It’s yesterday’s news – same as Natalie Elphicke.