On Thames Water (though probably for another thread):

It is a failure of regulation as well as business management. But also of the regulated monopoly model – it’s a whole system failure rather than one entity. Worth noting that Ofwat regulation penetrates all areas of the business, with targets, audits and performance commitments and penalties on an annual basis across the entirety of their operations.  It also encompasses a level of complexity that cannot be captured in quippy headlines. Every 5 years, Ofwat go over every water company’s detailed business plans, and set the limits on investment and spending, and particularly on what can be recovered via customer bills. But because they require private investment, they also have to make them attractive enough for investment (i.e. a level of profit). Ofwat let various investors across numerous companies take those dividends. What has also developed is a fairly antagonistic relationship between regulator and some water companies, which has made business plans not achievable without further investment or debt. Obviously Ofwat would prefer investors  cough up, but recent history shows that doesn’t happen.

Anyway, I could rant on, but the whole sector model isn’t really fit for purpose, if it ever was. BUT – nationalisation isn’t a fix in itself. It’s sustainable investment, good management and regulation – none of which are really happening in the right way at the moment.

Nothing shouts tin-eared vote winner than a cynical clamp-down on sick-notes.

I had a chuckle of recognition at someone on the radio saying she has a serious case of whatever the inverse of imposter syndrome is…that’s probably as polite a thing you could say about her at the moment! Negligent Narcissism?

‘Elite’ in the right wing populist context is just a kneejerk piece of vocab trolled out automatically, along with anything ending in ‘for’ or ‘of the British people’.

I’ve found that the cat/dog repellent granules from garden centres work, but need topping up. Just made from strong botanicals that make them baulk…

Also, the recent large scale military corruption uncovered (but covered up as much as possible by Chinese leadership), has set back any plans they may have had, as well as their capability to do so.

I think they nearly went out of business a while ago didn’t they? I always loved their rims as they were strong and dependable, and i’d happily have a wheelset now if there was much available….

Yeah, Russia has already gone through the process of sham annexation/referenda of most of the areas it has occupied, so for Putin and his home audience, that is already Russia. Whether ‘westerners’ would be willing to fight and die for the cause is a moot point, because some volunteers have done just that already (in small numbers), but ‘western’ troops is a different beast, for all the reasons previously discussed: it’d then be a military escalation between NATO and Russia. There isn’t the political will to do that yet, for good or ill, and so we’re left with it being the next best/worse thing – as much material and military support as possible without going down that route.

Yes, Ukrainians are paying the price for that, but it’s also not just about western military/political gain and Ukraine being ‘used’, it’s primarily about Ukraine’s survival as an independent state. Yes, western interests flow from that of course, but the alternative is a defeated Ukraine that becomes another Belarus Putin puppet state, with all the dangers that poses, and all the losses that would mean for Ukraine as a country and a people. The functional defeat of Russia is pushing it back to pre-2014 borders, and that being the internationally acceptable end point, and the most desirable one for Ukraine. It’s a harsh, harsh reality that Ukrainians will do most of the dying for it, but there’s no feasible alternatives currently open to do much else…

Agreed nickc, it’s a point well made

This thread has generally been a good one for informed and nuanced discussion. I think noting and commenting on events as they happen is all part of that, and doesn’t warrant the accusation of ‘flag-shagging’ or ‘armchair generals’. Isn’t it more about understanding the current situation and it’s complex and shifting realities? As an example, a single strike on an oil refinery has multiple potential implications worthy of discussion. Interpreting that as war porn is perhaps understandable in complete isolation, but the tenor of this thread shows that there’s a measured and concerned approach to the matters discussed (in general).

On the nuclear threat; things are worse than they have been in recent decades, but it is a function of the new cold war. But the fact remains that on the extinction-level threats, it’s not meaningfully closer than before. That’s because nuclear strategy demands the check-mate of threat and counter-threat. That involves taking action that makes the deployment of nuclear weapons a realistic threat, and going through the motions of shows of force, and in Putin’s case, sabre-rattling. This new phase of a cold war has a different dynamic to the past due to Russia’s changed stance in the world, but the fundamental principles remain the same, and the actions we have seen from all sides are basically the same as in the past – re-asserting the matrix of threats. Nuclear arsenals don’t prevent conventional warfare and proxy wars, and that is what is happening again. I’m not a Nuclear evangelist by any means, just accepting of the reality, and that it’s a genie that’s escaped its bottle, and unlikely to find it’s way back in again.

As mentioned a number of times above, Russia knows it can’t use nuclear weapons as things currently stand, and Putin knows it. If NATO/EU-aided Ukraine over-reached by trying to take Russian territory after liberating pre-2014 Ukraine, then that would be a more likely scenario for using a tactical nuke. But that is a very unlikely scenario given the current reality, not least Ukraine’s stated aims and that of Nato/EU/allies. Also, the consequence of a tactical strike isn’t necessarily Threads on a global scale.

I know many will know all this already but it’s worth stating all this so we don’t talk about choices that don’t exist in reality, or that don’t account for complex realities on all sides.

Worth noting that the fine of 454m stays, it’s just a lesser bond amount to enable appeal, still liable for the full amount.

You mean a false flag operation? Indeed plenty of history and conspiracy theories for it in Russia. There will suddenly be lots of evidence linking it to Ukraine ‘fascists’ and supplying a pretext for some kind of escalation. I can’t see most of the world falling for it though, if that’s what it turns out to be. Ukraine has been consistent in it’s military targeting and knows it can’t engage in terrorism as it’d lose support. Either way it’s a grim turn of events…

Internally routed forks really are form over function. I’ve got a trig fork i’m about to fit on my gravel bike, and i’ve got some bolt on guides to do it externally. I don’t want to disconnect the hose to service the headset and the like. Worth using some tape to keep it protected and reduce rattle.

Ah, so it’s the private limo squadron…at least Rishi can give them some useful tips on countering blue-on-blue strikes… (sorry/notsorry)

I’ve been digesting my thoughts on the series since watching the final episode on Friday. I can’t really escape from the feeling it didn’t move or grip me as much as I hoped. I know that’s because I can’t help holding up BoB as the standard. I have a fair tolerance for the historical stuff, and even though I have a reasonable eye for the details, I do care about the story more than anything. I think the final episode drew things together quite well, and I felt an emotional satisfaction at the end.

I just can’t quite decide whether it was the way it was told that is the problem, or whether the focus on that arena of the war, makes in intrinsically difficult to do. But then you look at Catch-22 and Twelve o’clock high, and you know it can work better. I think it is that they have tried to do too much in too little narrative space, and that’s why I feel it misses on being excellent. Having read the book, there is so much drama and extraordinary feats, and so many strategic elements, and other moving parts to the story, that it would have been better in 15-20 parts whilst focussing on fewer aspects. It also missed a bit more strategic narration, and I think some more ‘Pinetree’ action would have helped to frame strategy a bit better.

Back to Twelve o’clock High – there was a fabulous nod to that film as well as being a point of historical accuracy, with the inclusion of the toby jug on the mantlepiece of the officers mess, when Crosby is talking by the fire. Quality touch.

I dunno, I think helicopter pilots doing structured training and getting their hours up (considering the current context of hostilities) a more productive use of their time and resources, than ferrying a lame duck around to make literally pointless speeches…?

I personally think the coronation of yet another unelected PM would be unacceptable, and I think probably a surprising number of Tory voters, members, and MPs would feel the same. I wouldn’t be surprised if some right wing newspapers wouldn’t be able to support it either. I just don’t see it as a credible scenario. As above, I think Rishi would just call an election, and it’s probably that threat that is preventing it going much further.  If this talk does precipitate into mutiny, then I think it will just hasten the inevitable scuttling of HMS Tory. An election or implosion of the party can’t come soon enough.

Good Matt cartoon! I really do hope the Republicans have seen sense, but will wait to see the colour of their money…

Fat creations is £800 for a hardtail frame…I don’t doubt their quality or craftmanship, but it needs to be a good or very beloved frame for that price. If you’re going for a single colour then a normal paint shop would be closer to £200 or less

I’d rather see access reform in England and Wales, thus potentially opening up thousands of miles of natural trail previously not accessible (well, not officially anyway). This would open up more options from everybody’s front door, rather than having to jump in a car and have its newness and cost judged by a fellow biker.

It further good strategy by Ukraine, but one of the key things Putin will get out of his (manufactured) election mandate, is the ability to go for a much wider mobilization/conscription, which i think is the next logical move for him. Whether he can actually get people mobilized is another issue, but I don’t think these attacks will do much to change Putin’s mind on pressing ahead in Ukraine, sadly. I think the grim truth is there has to be a lot more attrition and depletion of both militaries, economies and societies in both countries for the war to come closer to some kind of conclusion – whatever that conclusion looks like.

On threats to use nukes, I believe it’s just rhetoric. If they used one in Ukraine, then they would face military consequences which I believe have been laid out to them explicitly by ‘the west’ in 2022 (like, we will sink your entire black sea fleet if you do that). That would be aside from making themselves (more of) a global pariah and potentially losing the China lifeline that is crucial to them.

EDIT: on the election, the only real avenue to register dissent in Russia, is probably to not vote. So the best result we can hope for is a reduced turnout, though probably not to the scale seen in Iran. Also, who knows if Putin already has a plan to get turnout by bribing/threatening people out…or failing that then finding a way to fabricate it…

On Trump’s transactional approach – a TV journalist summated pithily that his brand of business transaction is one that demands that the party on the other side of a deal with him, also feels like they have been subject to daylight robbery. That’ll be nice on a political and military level. I hope the EU and others take their own path and are planning on the assumption this is going to happen. They can’t get to November and think; ‘oh crap’.

Also, whether an accident or behind the lines activity, another transport plane gone, this time an Il-76:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-plane-crash-moscow-military-transport-b2511257.html

What’s the cheapest bike Singletrack has tested in the last 12 months?

I’ve had a front caliper for about 18months that i’ve been undecided about fitting, and the tales on here have helped me decide to sell them on! They do look great, and would look neater than the post-to-flat adapter I currently use. But then again, the cheap deore calipers i’ve used have been faultless and work well. If I get flat mount calipers they’ll be shimano.

Think the name is OK, sounds a bit like an early cold war U.S. jet fighter-bomber. Looks horrible though.

Further to my above, I think taking in other geometry changes like seat angles and reach, i’ve found the best for me is Long, Low and Slightly Slack, and that has a worthwhile application for a bit of everything. It might be called an ATB but let’s not get mired in categories. This is where things differ when comparing just HA and older bikes, especially as many were much shorter, slacker SA, higher BB, even different wheel size.

Yeah, I also ride ‘regular XC’. Going 29er and having bigger tyres has mode the most difference for me, rather than head angles. I think there’s a place for a fairly wide range of angles, but I still smirk when I hear people refer to 65 degrees as steep. It’s just shifting baseline syndrome. For pedalling, the steeper seat angle is an important factor too, and for XC i think it can get too steep..?

I also ride rigid and 69 degrees HA and it’s spot on for pedalling and attacking more technical stuff. Rigid is a different ball game to HTs though.

‘Everybody’s fed, nobody’s dead’.  Parenting Job done.

Admiral Kusnetsov is a complete dog. It also keeps catching fire. Interestingly, China’s two carriers are based on the Kusnetsov. First one is built from the uncompleted hull of it’s sister ship (Left unfinished in Ukraine when Soviet Union collapsed), second one is a ‘new’ one built from the same design. Nothing to bother a nuclear powered US carrier!

Ukraine’s naval strategy is a very good one, as Russia can’t easily replace the lost ships like-for-like due to the restrictions from the Montreux convention on the Turkish Straights. So Russia either has to build new ones in a black sea shipyard, or transport small vessels via inland waterways. I’d imagine the latter would be incredibly risky, providing a sitting duck target for long range weapons or behind the lines drones.

On the idea that the Tories are going to kneecap a Labour administration with any upcoming budget: doesn’t that ignore the fact that labour can cancel all of these budget policies as soon as it gets into power (if)? They will undoubtedly be comprehensively kneecapped by the current state of everything as they will find it on day 1, but they’re not going to just continue with Hunt’s budget for 4-5 years like some runway for a Tory re-election down the line!

I wouldn’t bother personally. I’m not far from the ridgeway and after recent rain it’s as bad as it’s been this winter for slop, and the ground is so saturated that it’ll take weeks of warm temperatures to dry out the surface. You’ll end up doing shorter, filthy days. Grinding slowly through muck for a few days isn’t that much fun, is it?

Will it make a difference if there is some kind of ceasefire by the time of the GE I wonder?

Re: Lib Dems, I don’t know how the polls account for this in their models, or if it’s covered in the framing of the survey question, but surely there is some extra support for them hidden in the Labour and Tory %s where people vote tactically..?

Oh yes, it’s not happening in May, it’s just a desperate plea of mine. I think Rishi has made the wrong choice about delaying the election in the hope of something coming along, because what is coming along is the Reform party and more infighting chaos to put voters off voting tory. Prolonging the pain for everyone…

It really does show the weakness of Rishi, and his appalling political skills – not forgetting his dumpster world view. Sending out ministers en-masse to equivocate over ‘tactical racism’, largely to try and keep 30p and people in the Tory party that agree with him, vaguely on-side. It’s another shameful spectacle.

I also hope that this doesn’t wash with more voters than it does wash with. It’s only a hope. My birthday is early May, could I please have a new (non-Tory/Reform) government with a large majority?

Couldn’t agree more with what @poly said above.

It’s all incredibly hard work, and it sounds like you do need to present a united front, but also have to stick to a long road of changing behaviours. I did a course on the Incredible Years positive parenting approach, and I found it offered a lot of very useful tools for parenting. There’s no one way of doing things, and i’m not saying it is some panacea for parenting – parenting styles aren’t dieting plans! I’ve just found many aspects of it worked for me, and it is an evidence-based approach. There might well be some things that would help your situation, and it’s something you and your partner need to do together too.

Not much point using all the manpower and effort for a limited one-off strike, when they can just do what they do now and use drones as disposable weapons delivery systems. Relatively cheap, quick, accurate. Drones have also become effective anti-tank weapons.

Saw a video the other day of a drone finishing off an abandoned Russian tank, and it neatly dropped a charge through the open hatch and the ammo went up. Better than exposing personnel to get closer with a more expensive anti-tank weapon.

I’d say don’t be too hard on yourself for having a big ‘reason’ or event cause. Depression and associated mental health issues aren’t like PTSD which seems to be more about ‘events’. As others have said it’s more about ways of thinking. Likewise I can’t point to a ‘thing’, just accumulation of things over years. However it comes about the feelings for you are real. As others have said, embrace other options available to you if you feel up to it, even if it turns out to not be that beneficial, worth exploring other avenues for feeling better.

Make it a priority to discuss the balance of side effects and therapeutic benefits with your doctor. That is a lot of sertraline, and I can imagine the side effects are strong. I’ve found the side effects change over time too. I’ve recently reduced sertraline and it feels better, but my guts don’t agree.

Main thing is you’re doing the right thing by yourself and your family. Hope you find the right balance.

Is bronze officially the new purple?

Surprised it’s taken this long to be honest, and couldn’t ever see his being freed at any point. It’s a sad thing for sure.