BruceWee,
Are we saying that a “combination of circumstances” should include a time machine?
I’d prefer a situation like the one envisaged by the sdlp leader John Hulme during the NI peace process, where (I’m paraphrasing, probably badly, from 20 ish years ago) he said that the continuation of violence in NI was stupid because what would it look like from the future where we would all be Europeans and have whatever national identity we like. To all intents and purposes we would be part of the same country, and could think of ourselves as irish british european or any combination.

Brexit may have robbed me of being a European citizen and the rights that give me, but I’ll not support another bunch of small minded nationalist hypocrites robbing me of more rights.

scotroutes
Not what I said.
But you seem to be implying that so long as they support independence, you don’t care what lies they tell along the way?
That explains a lot, but not in a way I find particularly amusing.

Still not seeing the brexit/indyref parallels I assume?
“O wad some Power the giftie gie us. To see oursels as ithers see us!”

“Corbyn lays out Labour’s terms for backing May on Brexit”
Guardian

12 dimensional chess intensifies.

The important thing Tusk said wasn’t that the brexiters, had no plan. Thats not even controversial.
It was about the state of political leadership in the UK, which is why people are on here mumbling about brexit while both main parties deliver it to us anally, sans lube, without the basic courtesy of a reach around.

Someone remind me why we can’t trust the Lib Dems again?
I can’t put my finger on it right now, but it must have been really really really important.

Is this the plot for the next Back to the Future installment?
They never dealt with Baby Hitler but I guess Scotlands Oil could be a good tagine?
If you’re going to fantasise why not have an independent Shetland?
Move there in your tardis.
Profit

PS the poo shower yesterday of Blackford wittering on about waspi women and Scotland powers in Parliament, plus the SNP tweeting his “victory” plus the Nat onal story today (about Scotland lacking the powers to help with pensions).
It’s all a big stinky lie and they all know it.
Sad.

You seem to think that no economic event can really makes any difference to the social fabric of a country!?

Do you think that the victims of austerity in the UK were all making things up?
Or do you just mean that it won’t make much difference to you?

seosamh

But it’s disingenuous to claim scotland couldn’t exist the way most of the world does at the moment, and borrows what is necessary and work does towards growing the economy and balancing the books over time.

So no need to stop paying for anything.

Now look at your statement from a different perspective.

If Rees-Mogg said of no deal brexit:
“Things will just go on as normal after a no deal brexit and we can just borrow what is necessary and work does towards growing the economy and balancing the books over time. So no need for any cuts anywhere.”

Would you consider those the words of a calm economic genius or a deluded fool?

EDIT:
PS Hannah Bardell (SNP MP for Livingston) is getting roasted on twitter at the moment for denying that the SNP can top up pension credits (for WASPI women) in Parliament and online.

She then refused to correct herself and said that not learning what is reserved and devolved showed “disrespect to Scotland”.

Talk about swallowing your own propaganda! :o)

I agree, a no deal scenario would change the scale of things.

If parliament lets that happen, then eff them all and theres not much left to hope for.

Just to be mischievous, another way to put that is that scottish independence could cause the same scale of economic grief as a no deal brexit.

Would any objectively sane person vote for either?

(Unless they felt they needed more “vitamin flag” in their diet?)

In any case even Nicola is talking down indyref 2 at the moment.

No,
Its pretty clear that the (unnecessary, idiotic, self inflicted and serious) hit from Brexit on the UK economy will be considerably less than the effect scottish independence would have on Scotland.

Thats why I keep saying that brexit is bad but independence is brexit squared.
Even if I wanted it, Its not a solution to this problem.

You sound a bit like a disaster capitalist (with gordimhor).

“People are saying that indy would be an economic disaster…
But what if the economic disaster had already happened!!!!”

“Checkmate economics!”

Jeebus, I look away for a day and people are saying Barnett is bad and asking for full fiscal autonomy with a straight face.

Its been established, (using statistics from the SNP government) that Barnett gives scotland 10Bn extra a year (out of a budget of just over 70Bn) above what we put in in taxes*.

Full fiscal autonomy would take that away, and be an order of magnitude greater than “austerity”.

The only advantage (for some) would be that the pain of it would be caused directly by Westminster rather than as a result of Scottish independence (and then just blamed on Westminster).

Here is a graph of Scottish spending up to 2015. Note the drop in cash (70.2 to 68.4)Bn due to austerity.

I’m tiring of asking, but what sort of maniac would voluntarily drop that by another 10Bn?
And what would you stop paying for?

Yes, I know gordimhor would, but anyone else?

(graph from This Blog.)

* Getting extra from central government isn’t unusual by the way. In the UK only London doesn’t have a deficit**.
**Obviously not a real deficit, because, you know, U.K. exists.

EDIT: I can’t believe you made me get the graph out again.

seosamh,
Not bitter 🙂
I’ve started using the phrase “scottish exeptionalism” to describe the idea (conscious or unconscious) that people supporting independence express when they talk about how the people in Scotland are basically different from the people in e.g. England.

Often/mostly in the context of how these differences will (they hope) drive us apart.

Sadly (genuinely), the statistics don’t bear it out. There is as much racism, opposition to immigration, probably more sectarianism, people of every political flavour and persuasion in Scotland.

As an example; How many of you were genuinely shocked by the rebirth of the tories in the last few elections? Was the shock because it doesn’t fit with your mental image of “Scottish people”? So whats wrong? Their nationality, or your mental image?

For all that, there is definitely a slightly more left wing/centrist bent in Scotland, than overall in England, but that also applies to other parts of the UK of similar population.

My argument would be that we are more than anything, one people (in good and bad ways) after 300 years of union. I’m Irish and British by birth, Scottish by location, European (hopefully ongoing) by choice.

A lot (55% at the last count) of people don’t see blaming the bad stuff on part of their identity and wanting to get away from it as necessarily a positive thing.

Many on here see independence as a positive, and I can see your point (even if you often ignore an asking price which could include the ability to pay for the society you envisage).

But I think that barking up the nationalist tree and looking for separation is the wrong way forward (in indy as much as in brexit).

scotroutes,
Um … No.
I thought we’d agreed that financial pain is real pain for some people?
Maybe not you, but what about the others?

I’m from N Ireland, I know lots of people over there who consider that their politics outweighs other peoples right to even have rights.
Its not a good look.

Also (again) anti-indy != pro-brexit

I’m against both, and the fact that you seem unwilling to even consider the similarities between the two may well be the definition of scottish exceptionalism.

Further to seosamh point about numbers. Theres a fallacy that independence support surged from something v. low (25%?) to 45% over 2 years so another years shouting will take it up another 10%.

Thats not how it works. After 2 years shouting and a massive turnout in 2014, everyone had already developed a pretty strong opinion.

It doesn’t have to be labelled “unionism”. For some it could be labelled “please stop feking about with constitutional stuff and give it a rest for a while”. I personally think that the high pro europe turnout in scotland was both about europe and also a cry to “just leave things alone you arseholes”.

2014 was a perfect storm of high oil prices, conservative shenanigans, commonwealth games (dancing tunnocks!), bannockburn anniversary and probably more, and it didn’t work.

People have seen (mostly) that the ideas of the book of dreams were rubbish, and the notion setting up iscotland for £500m (?) in 2 years may have been slightly exaggerated.

The recent treatment of Anna Soubry outside westminster also brought back memories of the treatment of some unionist politicians during the indyref (and the contrast in reactions from nicola, this time, was a bit stark).

So most people just don’t want to go back there. The SNP have already lost their majority, and should consider forcing another constitutional vote at their peril.

As Terry P. once said (possibly based on a real chinese proverb?) “may you live in interesting times” is a curse not a blessing.

scotroutes,
You see we all (kind of) agreed about something and then you ruined it.

There’s obviously an opportunity to avoid some of the pain if iScotland could somehow retain better links to the EU

rUK is 60% of Scotlands trade. Losing rUK would be worse for Scotland than losing Europe.
Losing both would be worse worse.

Which is what _I’ve_ been trying to say 🙂 i.e. Indy is no cure for Brexit.

So can we stop banging on about it until the deficit gets to a level that won’t have us burning pensioners to keep warm?

There are other (non economic) reasons that I’m not a fan of independence (Summary: same as the reasons I’m not a fan of brexit, but on a different scale).

But we all know what the real issue is.

Nooooooo I’m trapped in a snare of my own devising.. woe is me! 😭

A it happens I agree to an extent. I think the best way to achieve independence would be to improve Scotlands economy to the point where economics became an irrelevance.

Then we can talk about what people want to achieve, and even if it never happens we might have made a better place for nothing 😉

Until then constant talk of independence is a drag on the economy and my keyboard.

Nicola had the best idea when she thought 60% in the polls would be the right level to start campaigning again. She just thought it would be easier to achieve and even Brexit hasn’t done it (it’s been more of a warning about reality than a shot in the arm). Having a party full of new members eager for independence hasn’t done her any favours, when the majority still don’t want it.

rene59
Are we allowing discussion about what might happen in the future? I thought no one could possibly know or even surmise based on current trends? 😉

I completely agree that brexit will make things worse. Its like punching yourself in the face until someone gives you a pet unicorn. But even the worst brexit projections are not in the same scale as the Scottish defecit.

You don’t get to grow the economy fast AND look after people. That’s almost a law (Google the fastest growing economies).

Independence is not the answer to this question. Even for those that think independence is the answer to every question.

What (and I realise that this is right out there) if we used Holyroods powers to make life as good as possible NOW and then see how things work out later?

epicyclo
ffs try to behave more like a sixth form debater.
Instead of saying “you’re wrong”; show me the money.

If you think Scotland has the cash in hand despite both me and the SNP disagreeing with you then produce the numbers or shut up.

If you think that the defect isn’t approximately the same size as the NHS budget, then pass the information along.

Produce some facts yourself before you make assertions about others.

Overall
C- Dissapointing relationship with reality. Sees only enemies on one side and only unicorns on the other.

While Brexit has highlighted the utter incompetence of Westminster. It’s also shown the dangers of Indy without a plan.

Yup. The last thing we need is more unicorn salesmen, of any stripe.

Do you think that flag waving is a substitute for social services, the NHS and pensions (even if it’s only other peoples)?

Then I have [brexit/iscotland] you might be interested in.

Delete as applicable.

Yawn.
a. Let’s talk independence.
b. No one votes to be poorer and here’s where we are economically right now.
a. Economy doesn’t matter because we’ll be better and more caring.
b. How will it be better and more caring with less money?
a. Economy doesn’t matter because tomorrow is a new day and things will be different.
b. But some things can be different NOW. Why not do that first?
a. You’re a sixth former who thinks that tomorrows conditions can be estimated using information from today.
Also a Tory. Also Westminster austerity is a murderous policy of oppression but iscotland austerity will have less money and more flags. So there! Tory!

Similarity to pro-brexit argument intensifies…

tj, You ask what I would cut now, to get a few million quid but advocate a policy (independence) which would result in 10Bn less money overall and refuse to say what you would cut then? Consistent 😉

epicyclo, I’m discussing the fact that the evidence says that iscotland would be poorer and that the main party advocating it are dishonest, lie to their followers and make cuts and decisions a tory should be ashamed of.

What point are you making except that you disagree while supplying no evidence?

Sad.

Oh please, calling all criticism of the SNP “distortion” and suggesting I’m a tory is not a good counterargument.

I’ll willingly attack the tories for their inhuman policies, but it’s not distortion to say that the SNP use victims of the tories for grievance mongering and then say its not their place to put it right.

With the waspi women they complained loudly, but said that they had no power over pensions to fix the situation.

When it was explained to them that they have full power to create a targetted benefit to cover the cost, they said it wasn’t their job.

Well then, what are they for?

It’s _not_ distortion to say that it appears to me (and others) that they’d rather have a grievance than a solution.

That these policies exist is on the tories. That the SNP refuse to mitigate the effects is on them.

That’s not distortion. You can maybe say we can’t afford to mitigate these policies without independence?

But we’d have less money then, so how many waspi and rape clause-like policies would we have to generate at home to make up the shortfall?

It’s perfectly reasonable to question a “holier than thou” administration about how deep their morals go. If you opened your eyes you’d see its not an uncommon view in Scotland that only having one real policy before which all others must fall might not be the best form of government (also applies to Westminster at the mo’).

For the avoidance of doubt I’m not on the tories side here. I hold politicians on both sides in contempt.

But I reserve particular condemnation for those who claim to walk on water, while cutting councils and trashing education and refusing to help those they sloganise about.

epicyclo, tj
So what you mean is that the slogan is misleading and badly formed attempt to imply theft of something that was never yours?

Trying distortions like that throws into question whatever else you say. Why not just leave that sort of drivel to the professional politicians?

I note that you haven’t explained why the SNP don’t help the waspi women or the victims of the so called rape clause? Am I distorting that too? (hint.. they have the power to do something other than moan about both). But they don’t. Why? I love to see you repeat the SNPs “reasoning” on that front with a straight face. Then I could say again (with feeling) :

Trying distortions like that throws into question whatever else you say. Why not just leave that sort of drivel to the professional politicians?

epicyclo..
“power grab”
We’re going to need an SNP slogan Klaxon!

Please name one (just one) power currently held by the Scottish Government which has been grabbed.

I’ll wait.

Maybe you can ask Nicola for a list when you call her to tell her where the hidden riches are?

PS. Despite all the deeply held feelings and passionate expressions of Scottish exceptionalism it seems that economics is still looking more important than flags.

Honestly not surprised but nice to have it confirmed 😉

Oh come on.. Even the SNP didn’t want fiscal autonomy when they realised it meant a 13 Bn cut. The SNP can distribute the cash Scotland gets in taxes (plus 13BN) how they want right NOW, and you think having LESS money and the same (or slightly different) government will make things better?

If seosamh rejects the job explaining the benefits of brexit for Farage.. would you like to step up to the plate and take a swing?

seosamh
You’re right. The bullshit shovelled by the SNP through 2014 was dense and smelly.
It’s a wee bit better now.

You should offer your explanatory services.

If the SNP aren’t interested there’s a chap called Farage darn saff who needs you to explain how Brexit is a great thing (despite economics) using your special skills.

epicyclo,
You’re doing it again.
Disagreeing with the SNPs current (not perfect but more than book of dreams) realistic view of Scotlands economy.

Airtragic is right about trident whisky etc. etc. (I refer you to my first post in this thread on the same subject)

So;
a) explain why Nicola/SNP are hiding Scotlands TRUE RICHES® (in a report written by their favourite economist that was delayed by about 18 months, possibly because they actually believed what they were shovelling in 2014 and were confused by reality), or
b) explain what bits of society indyscot won’t need that amount to 13Bn ish (NHS or Pensions or social care?).

Or just say that “economics don’t matter” until you really mean it and try to carry that thought in the same brain that thinks things like social care and the NHS are worth having.

EDIT: It bears repeating that GERS are produced by Nicola’s employees in her own Stats department. The Scottish Government have improved them and continually refine them. They say themselves that no request for information to Westminster has ever gone unanswered (subject of an FOI a while ago) Why would she/they get them wrong in a way that you keep harping on about?
Also. _ALL_ economic figures are estimates, thats why we have statisticians.
Here have a read LINK Thank me later 🙂

seosamh,
Try getting a mortgage on the basis that “I look broke based on todays figures but thats only the starting point, and you can’t know what will happen tomorrow”. Enjoy.

There is no argument (from me) that Scotland couldn’t be independent.
Only that we would be worse off if we were.

If the economic argument (as a few people have stated) doesn’t matter to you then that’s fine. Own it.

But it does call into question any claim you then make about the advantages of independence for spending more money on e.g. the NHS, the WASPI women (who have received no help from the SNP, when it is within their power NOW), the people suffering under the so called “rape clause” (slogan recently retired?) and the general benefit of society.

If you think that the impoverishment of various segments of society (by lets say 5* austerity) is a price you are willing to pay, then at least be up front about it to the other turkeys who might be voting for Christmas and have less of a safety net.

The finance paper even led Nichola to say that Scotland would deal with a deficit in the same way that other countries do (Ahem .. austerity).

How does that make you feel?

TL:DR
It IS important or the SNP wouldn’t spend so much time and effort obfuscating the truth.
Brexit is bad for the economy, Scottish independence would be bad squared.

nbt,
You’ve made the same mistake Sturgeon made a few weeks ago 🙂
link

seosamh,
Carry on independencing.
The cognitive dissonance i get from listening to Brexiters and Indyrefers saying the same things with the same assumptions on the subjects of Brexit and Indyref, and yet hating on eachother for being idiots makes my head explode.

They deny any downside to their position, or that no-one knows the future (when they don’t like the economic forecasts). Then when harm becomes obvious they claim “we’ll survive” (like we did in the war/braveheart or some other other bloody historical reference that they didn’t actually suffer through themselves).

How you can look at the real problems that a “few percent” austerity caused for the poor and the ill and the old. And then say;

few percent up or down don’t mean a great deal to the majority

Talk about “I’m all right Jack/Jock”.

A plague on both your houses.

seosamh
“why would I bother”
Because if you think that economics are important, then you might find it beneficial to read the _SNP_ figures that say indyscot would be an economic basket case (not a direct quote) and therefore be unable to e.g. rejoin the EU for 25 years.

I don’t enjoy these threads and (despite appearances) I don’t have a desperate need to keep repeating myself. But the facts are what they are and if the success of your political aims rest on deceiving “the people” you are allegedly trying to help then its not a good start.

See Brexit: “easiest deal ever!” and “no jobs lost!” to “there will be adequate food!” in 2 years.

If you want to drop the economic argument and make it all about flags, feel free.
If you want to have flags AND better conditions for your citizens, then that needs a little more application.

seosamh
Read the SNP report.

tj.. the only recent years we didn’t have a defecit (due to the oil price) were (I think ..) 2014 and 2014. Its going to take more than a return to “normal” more like an ongoing “exceptional”.

Seosamh
At least you’re not saying it doesn’t matter 🙂
Also the SNP say it would take 25 years (of unrealistic made up growth figures) to get back to where we are now.
So no I’m not saying it would last forever. Just a few decades.
But until then … how does that make things better for the people of Scotland?

Cut and paste .. I wish :O)
I did read the thread, (and I obviously disagree about inevitability). Not particularly arguing with anyone, I’m just trying to get ahead of the main subject in these threads.
To summarise:
Sooner or later it comes down to economics.
There is no viable economic argument.
The End (for those who aren’t flag merchants)

‘ere we go again.
If Brexit is bad, Scottish independence would be brexit on stilts.

The idea that Scotland can pay its own bills in a situation where there would be am immediate 10% drop in cash available across the board is not even denied by the SNP and was written into their “book of dreams 2” financial paper (the name escapes me).

For reference, the horrible effects of “Austerity” (suicides among the poor and removal of services for those in need etc. etc.) was a result of a 1.5% ish cut in budget, worsened by the larger cuts passed onto councils by the SNP. Independence would be 5 times that and even the SNP had to envisage something like 3% growth over 25 to 50 years to make up the difference.

N.B. Saying “no it wouldn’t” is not a counterargument unless you can explain where the money will come from.
N.B. II Not having Trident would save scotland 300M a year (from memory) NOT 13Bn, so look elsewhere.
N.B. III Theres no such thing as Whisky Export Duty.
N.B. IV No we don’t pay for Crossrail (or any U.K. project that does not benefit Scotland.)

To give you an idea of the scale, getting rid of NHS Scotland would save the right amount of cash. Or not paying for any pensions and for any social services (don’t make me put up the graph!)

So, we’ve had these arguments before, and on planet reality (barring the zoomers of independence swallowing the same kool aid as the zoomers of brexit) theres not much to be said.

It is as hard to put the argument for “things staying the same” for Scotland in the UK as it was for the UK in Europe.
The “Change” side always has the advantage because they can claim things would be better for _everyone_ and promise _anything_.

All things to all people, with no evidence, until the die is cast.

Zoomers the lot of them.

N.B. Don’t mistake my opposition to Scottish independence for a love of tories, brexit or anything else. Its its own subject with its own issues.

The only fun bit is watching the SNP argue that leaving a successful single market, customs and monetary union with whom you do 60% of your business is the best way forward.

And even that is wearing thin after watching the liars of brexit do so with no shame and no consequences.

edit:
P.S. For those who say “its not about money”. If thats the case then you can’t claim that it IS about social services and NHS and looking after people better than in the UK. Because thats the sort of decision that only money allows you to make.

epicyclo, and maybe tj
You do seem to be looking for a reason to find or create doubt and uncertainty about the allegations. You are using the timing of the complaints, the cocked up process and the lack of previous rumours as “questionable” features worthy of consideration.

But have a think about how your “analysis” looks from the perspective of the complainants.

Have you considered that one of the main reasons for any delay might be the reactions, hair splitting and armchair analysis of people just like like you?

In any case, as its sub judice is it not best to avoid discussion of “things that suggest its all a lie” just as much as “things that suggest hes as guilty as sin”?

The facts will eventually come out and then we can all have a go.

For me, I’m wondering how the jury selection will be carried out?
Get a few zoomers on the jury and they’ll probably think its the persecution of Jesus all over again.

epicyclo,
I think I’ve said before that the timing is not really much of a surprise. When people said the timing was “calculated to do the most damage to Salmond”, I suggested that 2013 could have been a wee bit more damaging if that was the intention.

Possible reasons just off the top of my head;
What if they;
a) share his political views and didn’t want to rock the independence boat.
b) weren’t sure if complaints against the top politician in Scotland would be dealt with fairly.
c) only recently found out they were not alone in being treated this way.
d) watched a documentary on the #metoo movement

By the way you’re _still_ either suggesting (or repeating the suggestions of others) that there is something underhand WRT the complaints or the complainants.

epicyclo,
You’re free to doubt my level of schadenfreude; To be honest I’d be in hog heaven if he’d been charged with financial incompetence or dangling his tackle out the window from bute house.

But I’m not getting much joy from that list.

epicyclo,
refreshing to see your absolute priorities on display there.