Exactly, the difference between the last leg (which implied that she had an enormous amount of energy in reserve) and the first 3 (which were at a world class pace) is the suspicious factor to me.
From my earlier link:
Next, you look at what it “typical” in the 400IM race. For men, the best swimmers typically close in 57 to 59 seconds (check splits from London). This is about 19 to 23% SLOWER than the best men finish in an isolated 100m freestyle.
For women, the TYPICAL (excluding Shiwen) final 100m freestyle takes 61 to 64 seconds. This is 18 to 22% slower than the best females swim 100m freestyle.
So the sport shows that you have a normal pattern, a typical ratio of medley freestyle to best freestyle – they SHOULD BE between 18 and 23% slower at the end of a 400m IM than in a 100m freestyle by itself.
Yet Shiwen is not. She does a 58.68 s final leg, which is only about 10% off the best 100m freestyle swimmers. The conclusion that I would draw from this is that her 100m freestyle leg is disproportionately fast not only by comparison to Lochte, but also to her peers, and to the best 100m freestyle swimmers.
Scary thought then that there is a “reserve” there that would see her get even better. It would only cause more questioning though – imagine a strong world record of 4:30 lowered by 5 or 6 seconds by a 16-year old?
Interesting times. Again, to stress the earlier point, this is an interesting discussion. And the doping aspect is important (don’t shy away from the question just because it’s politically incorrect – look where that got sport before), but this doesn’t prove anything. So let’s wait and see.