To calculate the power you require for heating is easy, you take the U-value of each component of the house (i.e. windows, walls, roof etc) and multiply each by the area of each one. So 10m2 of double glazed windows with a U-value of 2.2w/m2k would be 10×2.2=22w/k. Add all these together and you have a power required to heat the building to 1 kelvin above the outside temperature. You want to heat the building to 25K above external air, so multiply this by 25. That’s your “fabric loss” in Watts.
Then you need to add the loss due to infiltration, which depends on the house construction and airtightness. I would assume 0.8 air changes an hour for a new house, so 0.8ac/hr / 3600s/hr x vloume of house (m3) x 25K x 1.2KJ/kgk (Cp of air). Add this to your fabric loss and you’re there. I can help if you want, it’s my job.
GSHP is good if designed well, otherwise it’s rubbish. It wont be very efficient heating your hot water either. Have a look at dimplex, viessmann and ciat, they all make domestic heat pumps which are suitable for hot water. Look at the CoP charts in their brochures, you need to be above 2.5 to save carbon.
juliancottrill at googlemail dot com