Estimates suggested 450,000 without action

Ahh from the much discredited Neil Fergusson modelling. When has Neil Ferguson or his associates got any of their predictions even nearly right? What were his predictions for Sweden again? 80,000 dead was it if there was not a mandatory lock down? How has that played out?

Anyway we were never not going to do nothing, but whether we have done the right or proportionate thing considering who is susceptible is highly questionable.

174,000 dead of Covid in the UK

Mostly ‘with Covid’. Only approx 17,000 were down to Covid alone with all others having other, often multiple serious co-morbidities. Many would have died anyway with or without Covid.

The only way to “save the NHS” was to either lockdown to prevent it being swamped by Covid patients

No it wasn’t, alternatives were available. Our previously well thought through pandemic planning based on years of scientific thinking, and the knowledge that lockdowns cause far more damage than they solve got chucked out the window on whim, such was the panic and lack of leadership in March 2020.

You can disagree with my view, that’s fine. That’s your moral position. And it’s a simple one to hold. Until it’s your parent, partner or child drowning internally as their lungs fail.

Let’s not even go here. We have all lost loved ones from various diseases over the years. A death from Covid is not more tragic than a death from any other cause, of which there are many times more.

I have high functioning anxiety and am used to living daily with it and its symptoms for many years. Since having Covid a few weeks ago, I have additional symptoms not attributable to anything else, mainly;

a) A far quicker fall to fatigue, in fact remarkably and measurably so via Garmin analytics.
b) Prominent memory loss of small things that happened a week ago
c) I’ve been about 10-15% above resting heart rate from 2 days before my positive test until now, 3 weeks later.
d) If I get stressed, it rises very quickly an intense crescendo whereby I’m so stressed / running on the syphonatic system I can’t speak. I’m having to identify it and work very hard to roll it back. This never happened before Covid, even during an anxiety attack.

I had similar symptoms too after catching Covid back in 2020. Most noticeable was a loss in performance and breathless-less on the bike when climbing on climbs where it never used to be a problem. After a couple of months things were back to normal. Similarly after Glandular Fever in my 20’s I was left with some very strange and unusual symptoms for 18 months afterwards, one of these was extreme fatigue. I had never experienced those symptoms before, but again completely back to normal after 18 months or so. My partner was similar after a bout of bad flu a few years back.

All the above were once considered fairly normal after a serious viral infection and symptoms varied greatly from person to person. All can be described as ‘post viral syndrome’ to some degree. Until of course the phrase ‘Long Covid’ was coined.

I am not doubting your symptoms or making light of your position, far from it, I am just concerned that because you are now worried you have ‘Long Covid’, rather than the more standard post viral syndrome, it could be adding greatly to the stress and anxiety you must already be feeling. This in turn is probably not helping your recovery.

Whether we need to shut down sections of our society for the above, compounding the damage is another question.

Also lockdowns helped prevent many catching C19 who may otherwise have suffered from long covid.

We will ALL either get or be exposed to Covid-19, no exceptions, so what you say regarding what used to be known as ‘post viral syndrome’ does not make any sense.

Strangely, the symptoms of anxiety or stress are remarkably similar to those described by Long Covid (post viral syndrome) sufferers. Given the huge stresses of the last two years caused by a relentless barrage of ever changing restrictions, uncertainty, combined with a never ending campaign of fear in the media, how can you be so sure that Covid-19 caused these symptoms?

(* – number pulled out of my arse, you can probably google projection statistics if you care sufficiently)

Less than 1% as was stated by Chris Whitty back in March 2020. He also said that for the vast majority Covid would be a very mild disease. Have we all forgotten this?

It is widely accepted that lockdowns throughout the world have saved millions of lives

If this is what you think then what data do you have to back this up? And at the same time, because it is equally relevant, how many lives has lockdown policy cost, or will likely cost, since the effects of lockdown policy will be felt for many years going forward?

which is of course the reason there was pretty much universal agreement on the need for lockdowns.

Of course all scientists agree, when you censor (or smear) the ones who don’t.

Was it wholly justified? I guess the answer depends on how much you value human life. Not everyone values human life to the same extent.

There are some big questions raised by this.

The value of extending life used to be measured by those providing treatment in terms of quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). I believe that since the resources of the NHS are not unlimited, and since treatment needs to be directed towards those who will benefit from it the most, then a value of £30,000 worth of treatment per QALY has been used in the past by the NHS as a rough guide for whether to provide treatment or not to treat.

Our panicked reaction Covid has blown this apart completely and we are now currently estimated to have spent somewhere in the region of £400 billion on Covid mitigation measures. To put that into perspective, we have so far spent over 3 times the whole annual NHS budget on things only to do with Covid. On mitigating one disease only, and none too successfully at that I might add.

Does that seem like good value for money to you or will future NHS and social care funding now be at risk because of the resultant huge burden of debt we now carry? How will our national debt burden impact the lives and health of people in the UK going forward? How will this all play out for people seeking treatment for other diseases in the future? How much should we value quality of life over quantity? How much value do we place on the mental health of the population? Do we know yet what damage the constant messaging of fear (‘killing granny’ etc) and school closures has done to our children or their education?

As you can see, it is not quite so simple as how much you value human life. It is not quite simple as eradicating Covid deaths at all cost.

To be honest, I am shocked that no impact assessment of lockdown policy and restrictions has seemingly even been presented by the government or its opposition who demanded even more lockdowns. Sooner, harder, tighter, longer cried Labour. Let us see who is on the right side of history when this all plays out.

just out of interest did you think the first or second lockdowns effective?

Common opinion still says yes, but when you compare data from around the world, cases decreased similarly in countries or regions that did not lock down. So I would say the jury is out and perception seems to be shifting, with WHO now recommending no more lockdowns and other doctors and scientists now feeling that they can come out and say what a huge mistake it has all been. All you could say at best I suppose is that lockdowns perhaps delayed cases to a later date, extending if you like the Pandemic.

The downside to lockdowns is the huge collateral damage that rarely gets talked about in the media or on here from what I could see. It is estimated that the mostly global lockdowns have pushed millions into poverty and widened equality (160 million according to Oxfam). We will probably find out soon that lockdowns and over the top restrictions have killed more people that Covid ever did. Here’s some food for thought from Oxfam:

Oxfam

Circuit breaker lockdown might have helped my Partner get to work tomorrow, as of tonight she’s not the only Nurse absent from her ITU ward which doesn’t help an already overstretched workforce.

Unfortunately I guess she better get used to it I suppose when they fire all those unvaccinated NHS staff in April.

Sorry not read the entire thread but have read the last few pages. Has everything already been decided or is there still room for a fresh pair of eyes?

Anyway one thing I couldn’t see discussed, but maybe it was further back in the thread was the ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown that many in the media, SAGE and the Labour Party called for a month ago. If it had introduced then this would have only just ended and would no doubt now be being hailed as big a success for bringing case numbers down and for having reduced the peak of admissions from the 5-10,000/day projected (based on 20-50% severity) to the 2000/day we have actually seen.

Thank goodness we can now see clearly that the virus mostly does its own thing, often independently of any measures we try to introduce to control it. Nail in the coffin for the effectiveness of lockdown measures thankfully.

Best thing we did was get some large LED batons for the ceiling. Makes it pretty much light daylight in there when working on the bikes, car etc. in the evening. Looked at floor mats but expensive so went with garage floor paint in the end. It’s good but can chip if you drop something on it. Might still get some ruber flooring at some point to replace when the paint starts to look tatty.

Hi, my wife’s a teacher, so protect her for one.

Protect her from what though exactly? Has she not been vaccinated? That said, most vaccinated people I know seem to have caught omicron recently. Did they all catch it from children?

In any case, since when were children supposed to be the ones protecting the adults? Normally it is the adults who should be protecting the children. If you think it should be the other way round then that’s some pretty messed up thinking IMO.

The UK Governments own large study into masks in schools, the one it used to justify the return of masks in the classroom, concluded that there was no statistical difference in absence rates in schools with masks vs those without.

UK Gov Evidence Summary

Yet more than half of children felt that wearing a mask made learning more difficult and 94% of teachers thought that face coverings made communication more difficult. Meanwhile the direct COVID-19 health risks to children and young people remains incredibly low.

So a policy forcing children to adopt measures that show no statistical benefit, against a disease they are at minuscule risk from, and which harms their education. What are we trying to achieve with this policy again exactly?

then you are clueless, because that article is nonsense

It made pretty good sense to me, seemed well researched from a huge variety of studies and sources and did a very good job of comparing the different types of mask and why they might or might not be effective.

It’s just another brand new account trolling

No not a troll but thank you for your vote of confidence.

Any relaxation will lead to an increase in cases, even temporarily

I’m not sure this is the case (pardon the pun) any more since there does not seem to be any correlation anywhere in the data so far as I can see that shows that more restrictions like vaccine passports, mask wearing etc, have much impact on case numbers in either direction. And even if they do then they probably only serve to delay cases to a later date, extending the Pandemic. Just look at France, Germany etc. where they have had harsh restrictions for months now yet cases have rocketed.

Similarly the Omicron wave seems to be dispersing all by itself whether in Wales where restrictions have been tighter, or in England where they have not. And we seem to be forgetting that restrictions case harm in their own right, so without solid evidence to back them up then I think we should be very cautious about imposing any more restrictions.

For mask wearing the evidence would seem to be particularly weak. I used to religiously wear a mask but was sent this article by a friend and it has changed my opinion 100%. Makes sense to me.

Facemask FAQ’s

I had an urban off-road route sorted when I lived in Putney. Really really good ride including lots of steps, technical features, alleyways and a couple of the parks etc. Not talking Danny Macaskill stuff here, just a nice link up with some interesting secret trails and including some of the tourist sights. Will see if I can dig out the old map I made of the route. Was hand drawn but if I find it will post it up.

We love our T5 and we are not selling, but given the cost of vans at the moment I’d think twice if I’m honest about buying another. Have seen several 4×4’s with pop up roof tents and this is most likely what we’d do if we ever needed to replace. Bikes can go in the back, wheels off. Never understood the problem with taking wheels off IMO. Takes no more than a few seconds at each end.

Then there is this, proper old school cool:

RS2 Acceleration

This, is an absolute classic:

Was isn das fürn Kombi?

Modified B5 S4 though rather than an RS4 since it does not have the wide RS4 arches. No doubt a genuine modified RS4 would be even faster.

Certainly sounds that way. As it is, the anxiety around Covid wasn’t there for me. I wasn’t concerned about catching it and when I did I was just miserable that I had to stay inside for Christmas but I too have a fairly high pressure (at times) job and is shift based. Getting my sleep on track is important so that I can go back to shifts confident that the off days will get me rest for the days and nights on shift. I’ve put stress on myself to get back to work when colleagues have had it around me and have had no symptoms or very mild. I’m double jabbed but they are older and are tripled.

Yes agreed, many people I know have struggled with their mental health over the last two years. Like you I wasn’t worried about Covid itself. More worried about the business I’d built up over the last 15 years going down the pan due to the ever changing Covid rules and the knock on effect on mortgage, house and kids, loyal staff etc, should it have failed. My wife has been distressed because she was not allowed to visit her dying mother in hospital in the last few weeks of her life and never got to say goodbye properly. For this she feels incredibly guilty and also seems to have developed a form of IBS which she’s having big trouble with.

So for the first time in our lives we have both sought counselling this year to deal with the fall out. Must be many others in the same boat. Best thing for it though is being able to get out on the bike. Takes your mind off it for a while and with mental health being so closely linked to physical health, might just help aid your recovery from Covid and many other health issues.

I’ve some Gore leggings that have a windproof layer built in to them. Warm and flexible and with a breathable water treatment from Grangers applied, seem to keep me dry for a few hours at least on rainy days. Wear some normal MTB shorts over the top to avoid looking like a roadie. Not tried MTB trousers though and didn’t know they were even a thing until now.

Also don’t forget that due to the fear and paranoia (propaganda) we have all been exposed to regarding Covid, and the stress caused to the general population through lockdown measures, the commonly reported symptoms of Long Covid (post viral syndrome) also mirror pretty much exactly, the mental and physical symptoms of Stress and Anxiety disorders.

Physical Symptoms:

sweating,
heavy and fast breathing,
hot flushes or blushing,
dry mouth,
shaking,
hair loss,
fast heartbeat,
extreme tiredness or lack of energy
dizziness and fainting, and
stomach aches and sickness.

Mental Symptoms:

racing thoughts,
uncontrollable over-thinking,
difficulties concentrating,
feelings of dread, panic or ‘impending doom’,
feeling irritable,
heightened alertness,
problems with sleep,
changes in appetite,
wanting to escape from the situation you are in, and
dissociation.

If you suspect that the above may be the case, then a long trip out on the bike might actually be the best thing for you.

I remember feeling a little out of breath on the bike after I caught it back in April 2020. Okay so it’s normal to get out of breath on the bike but not on the smaller hills where I found it was occurring. Would say it lasted about 3 weeks before back to normal. Loss of taste was transient, perhaps a few days at most.

No Long Covid (or what used to be known as Post Viral Syndrome) for me. I had PVS with Glandular Fever and strange symptoms lasted for almost a year. Nothing at all with Covid.

Just see how you get on I would say. Take it easier than you normally would for a few weeks, eat healthily and allow more time between rides for recovery.

We have been looking for the country with the strictest rules rather than the least restrictive

How come out of interest? You could try Australia, authoritarianism and abuse of human rights is off the scale there if that is your sort of thing? Not sure the skiing is good this time of year though.

Anyway, anywhere know which skiable countries in Europe currently have the lease restrictions? I kind of want my holiday to feel like a holiday, not an excersize in form filling, nasal swabbing and having to show your papers every time you fancy a bit of Apres Ski.

Looking to book a snowboard trip for the end of the season. But I can’t be doing with all this silly Covid charade (vaccine pass etc), especially not when on holiday. Does anyone know which country in Europe has the most normal and relaxed feel at the moment? Have heard that Bulgaria might be relatively normal but has anyone been recently? Anywhere else that has not succumbed to all this pointless carry-on?

My better half has a Panda 100hp and it’s a great little thing to zap around in. Cheap as chips to run and insure too. Also consider the VW Lupo Gti. £5 to £10k and this guy really rates it:

Lupo Gti

He’s also done one on these which I absolutely love as a good mate has one. More rapid than anything else I’ve ever been in. He paid about £10k for it a few years back. Struggle to get a decent one for less than £25k these days so like a lot of this modern classic stuff, think I may have missed the boat.

B5 RS4