You need to look at who’s buying eMTBs, and they roughly fall in to two categories.
You have those who’ve bought them in addition to a normal MTB, so they’re essentially buying a new category of bike instead of typically replacing an existing bike.
Then you have those who’re relatively new to the sport, or getting back into it. This is probably where the biggest growth has come from, as it’s the demographic that previously might have tried hiring a MTB, realised it’s actually hard work to cycle up a hill and not bothered trying it again, but an eMTB means they no longer have that fitness barrier.
In terms of overall sales, I’d say that if it hadn’t been for the new riders, MTB sales overall would have been majorly down. Knowing those in the trade, it’s got a similar feeling to the banking crash, where sales nosedived, however this time they’ve been partially propped up by new riders.
Plus there are a lot of existing riders who’ve simply been upgrading existing bikes. They’ve looked at replacing their bike, but what are they actually going to get with a ‘new’ bike? The answer is not a lot ‘new’. Geometry has pretty much stabilised. There’s no new latest and greatest wheel size. No new major developments in suspension.
So rather than spend several £k on a ‘new’ bike, they’ve been spending a £k or 2 on upgrades.
It’s not as simple as saying eMTBs are the future because they are selling more. You need to look at the reasons behind the numbers.