Whilst I agree, I dont think it can be safe to have schools fully open to all kids all the time
I agree, there will needless have to be some careful balancing.
The comp. by me has been doing a huge amount of building work making tempory-ish classrooms and one way path systems to make things safer.
How many cases or deaths constitute “control”?
You never give a number. Hostage to fortune stuff. If this was ebola, we would be looking for eradication - zero cases and deaths. It is not. No additional excess mortality would not be unreasonable as an aim.
Well I for one am totally convinced by operation moonshot. A great new weapon in the fight against the virus. Our first weapon, the world class track and trace was a great start but only V1. Now Boris has promised us V2 and the tide will be turned. These wonderful vengeance weapons will ensure a total and final victory over the virus.
The adage is closer than you think too. Loads of prototype V2s in particular never got off the launch pad, collapsing and taking out a load of those it wasn't meant to. At the time it was a costly* diversion that was largely symbolic** and too late to affect the overall outcome.
*Not in monetary terms due to the 'innovative' labour practices.
**Obviously more than symbolic if you were unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of one.
It’s the outdoor rule that makes no sense
I know we don’t live in California & things will be harder as weather gets worse but
Plenty could be done outside, including socialising
Contact tracing of 1245 people, found only 2 cases likely to have been caught outdoors
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
The problem with that paper is that it's pre-print and hasn't been peer reviewed. Some obvious questions about it:
- It's largely based on case descriptions from hospitals - this is self selecting (people admitted to hospital) and doesn't give you a full picture of transmission
- It's based on descriptions of the 'venue' where the infection occurred, without saying how that venue was identified - it's just what the hospital reported it as on a website. There are likely methodological differences between the 320 hosptials, that may well make the whole thing a nonsense (e.g. one hospital could be doing detailed contact tracing, another may just be saying - where do you think you got it).
- in almost a third of their outbreaks they couldn't even identify a venue
I'm sure proper scientists would find other issues with it, and maybe those could be worked through, but preprints are pretty dodgy to base anything on.
So tonight I am trying to plan activities for the Cubs, which is restarting next week with fairly heavy restrictions and risk assessments.
Apparently we are not bound by the Rule-Of-6 (according to the NYA) so we are allowed up to 15 kids and 5 leaders:
https://www.scouts.org.uk/volunteers/scouts-at-home/getting-everyone-back-together-safely/
We somehow need to develop a programme of activities that keep the kids two metres from each other and avoid using any shared equipment. Preferably outdoors. In the dark.
😳
mrsmidlife and the brownies are roasting marshmallows on camp fires in the church hall grounds tonight, all meetings planned outside, but to be called off if weather unsuitable. No good as lights get darker obviously, but making the most of the weather this week.
So a school local to me has a case only 20 kids isolating due to contact despite the bubble being 200+.
That’s in the new guidelines… “close contacts” asked to stay home, not the whole “bubble”.
How do they work out "close contacts"?
That would be an ecumenical matter.
So, like the world-beating test and trace app, we can add Covid Marshall’s to the growing list of things that definitely aren’t going to happen, then?
Well, there’s no funding for them, and they’ll have no powers… so there’s a strong chance you are going to be proved right. It’s an announcement, not a policy, again.
That would be an ecumenical matter.
Indeed. This kid is a year 11 so likely to have been in around 8 different subject classes and a tutor group. Of that 20 kids some are siblings of the close contacts.
If we learnt one thing last time it was go hard early to prevent spread 🙄
Daughter's Guide unit are meeting tonight in the local park, the unit my wife runs did the same thing earlier in the week.
Our Scout group leaders have got draft plans and risk assessments in place. Expect a monthly night hike.....
We somehow need to develop a programme of activities that keep the kids two metres from each other and avoid using any shared equipment. Preferably outdoors. In the dark.
Escape and evasion training?
Some interesting articles across the news sites around Sweden's current situation, looking like their sustainable model is working better than our 'hide and seek, right pubs open!' model....
Well, there’s no funding for them, and they’ll have
no powers…
Water cannons
The secondary my kid started at this week surprised us by sending drawings of the school all separated into zones, 1 for each year group. Other than break time where that have a year based separated area outdoors, they stay in the same class room throughout the day and only allowed to walk in their designated coloured zone which is designed to facilitate entry, exit, toilets, canteen, play grounds confined to year group. I thought that was an amazing effort by the school.
I thought that was an amazing effort by the school.
Easy to overlook the tremendous amount of work school staff have put in to try and find a solution that works with their individual sites.
I’m sure proper scientists would find other issues with it, and maybe those could be worked through, but preprints are pretty dodgy to base anything on.
Oi I am a proper scientist !😲 Well sometimes
I'm aware preprents can be dodgy, but much of covid research is in preprint right now,, & proving outdoor transmission tougher than indoor
But almost every superspreader events (which account for ~80% of cases) have been indoors
Contact tracing has shown the same pattern that indoor locations are the most likely places to catch it
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2
We also had a brilliant experiment where 1000s of people crammed together on marches & contact tracing did not associate it with increased cases
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
I appreciate government want to simplify things, but we also need to balance against opening up economy & socially
Outdoor interaction seems to be lower risk than indoor.
Yes not disagreeing that outdoor is likely better than indoor. Just pointing out that that preprint did not appear to particularly robust.
Yes lots of research is in preprints, but there have been a lot of very dodgy preprints out there too - made up datasets etc.
(and wasn't suggesting you weren't a proper scientist, just pointing out that I'm definitely not!)
TBF I'm a shit scientist, it's hard!
TBH moonshot might be a great success if they pop Boris and Chums in a spacex and er launch em.
I don't visit this thread much, it's been a bit entrenched and flighty for my tastes before so sorry if this has been covered.
'We've' chosen the location of our first 'mass vaccination site' in our City, the medical team who are currently working on Antibody testing are heading it up and doing the planning work now and they'll start on setting up the building(s) / sites soon.
Obviously, it's likely it will lay empty for a few months yet, but when the vaccine is ready, the speed of deployment will be "staggering", or at least that's what they're hoping for.
Let's hope so P-Jay.
Yeah I’m pretty confident.
I’m not expert but it seems very rare for a new drug / treatment to get to stage 3 of human trails before they discover its dangerous, and ‘we’ know it works as a vaccine.
Obviously it’s been paused at the moment because one of the test subjects has fallen ill, hopefully they can prove the illness wasn’t caused by the vaccine soon and it can progress again.
There’s lot of things that could go wrong, but I think it’s safe to hope / dream that next Spring / Summer will be a lot more carefree than the last one.
There’s lot of things that could go wrong, but I think it’s safe to hope / dream that next Spring / Summer will be a lot more carefree than the last one.
I'd take some stringent measures over winter if we end up in that place come spring, fingers crossed.
So a contract tracing app is to launch on the 24th September.
They're claiming it's a 'defining moment'. It is, just one that should have happened a few months ago. Strange how it works using the technology they dismissed as unworkable at the beginning.
I run a small village shop, it's in an equally small village with a garden nursery and a dental practice but no other businesses. Everyone knows everyone else etc..
Just had a guy in who I know is of the dentist's at the practice in the shop, ignored the max number of customers (full at the time) & no mask. So I confronted him regards the mask - 'it's should be masks on in the shop if you can'.
Apparently he has a exemption, tells me it's illegal to ask what it is (although I hadn't), and went off on one about it. I served him, explaining I can ask people to wear a mask and that's not illegal, but refusing service to someone who claims exemption would be. He disagreed, and he left.
Turns out he's also just written a book on COVID. How he performs dentistry without a mask is beyond me......
First time I've had a actual nutter rant about it in the shop, most just leave or flatly refuse.
Just needed to get that off my chest....
We're (Wales) are introducing Masks in shops from Monday... It's probably the right time for us, and if nothing else it might just make the muppets who seemed dead set on screwing up all the work we've done.
You should the comments on the Welsh Goverment FB page. It's a real mix of "OMG, I got to by my own mask. ripoff!" "Pathetic" "wake up people" and lots of people complaining that we've only got 150 new cases a day at the moment (up from 20ish) and "NO 1 HAS EVEN DIED".
It's terrifying the think these people actually exist in real life, I assumed they were a bit of an urban myth / joke and they're allowed to vote.
I just downloaded the scottish contact tracing app. Though, less people will find about it because the BBC has just stopped showing the first minister's briefings that would have announced it. Absolute despair at that one...
The BBC thing allows short Cummings the ability to change the narrative from a ScotGov communicating well/better than UKGov. They're being outperformed so removing the platform removes the embarrassment.
I think my tinfoil hat needs new batteries.
Yep, absolutely unbelievable decision.
It stinks.
explaining I can ask people to wear a mask and that’s not illegal, but refusing service to someone who claims exemption would be.
Is it actually illegal to refuse to serve someone without a mask?
Depends on the exemption. I suppose disability discrimination act could conceivably come into play, but ordinarily, ZK would have the right to refuse service to anyone he pleases.
Though, less people will find about it because the BBC has just stopped showing the first minister’s briefings that would have announced it. Absolute despair at that one…
Yes, because the BBC is overflowing with original content that needs to be shown in its place - anyone for Antiques Road Trip?
Is it actually illegal to refuse to serve someone without a mask?
It could well be, depending on the reason for not mask wearing.
Is it actually illegal to refuse to serve someone without a mask?
NO, it isn't you can ask anyone to leave a shop/restaurant/pube etc as it is private property, and you have that right to refuse service if you wish.
If you ask someone to put on a mask and they say no - that is reason enough, sam eas asking someone to put a shirt on in a bar - if those are the terms of service in your shop - no-one has the right to overturn that unless you break another law in doing so.
you can ask anyone to leave a shop/restaurant/pube etc
Not that simple at all. Try refusing someone who knows the law from your premises because they use a wheelchair… if you refuse service to someone who can not wear a mask, you could hit similar laws. Let’s not do this in this thread though, please. Start another one if you want further discussion about this, thanks.
R ≈ 1.7 ?
TiRed?
Just watched Rachel elnaugh (formerly dragons den) talking about covid, on brandnewtube I've had my doubts for some time now. been looking on the office of national statistics page, interesting reading.watch Rachel's blog and make your own mind up.
I've just been looking at the gov website and seeing the covid tests from April to September.
In April there were 12000 tests daily with 4000 new cases.
In September there are 200,000 tests with 3500 new cases.
No idea of the point I'm not making but thought it was interesting to see figures direct from the government website
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
