Shirley it’s time for that STW perennial favourite, Lance Armstrong.
A fine upstanding gentleman that the republicans could get behind.
Does anyone seriously think Donald Trump is going to go to prison?!
He is certainly going to be tied up in legal actions for years and a lot of the dirt will stick. As for jailtime - it depends what they find now he is out of the whitehouse but remember they hate tax fiddling and people do go to jail for that in the US
That was Rumsfeld. He’s bad, but not stupid.
I still use “unknown unknowns” myself, it’s a useful concept.
Haha I was going to say pretty much this. It was unwieldy but it’s a good breakdown of uncertainty.
Interestingly although I despised his presidency Bush Jnr has rather grown on me too since it ended. I heard Justin Webb tell a story where towards the end of his office he did an interview and Bush insisted on taking him on a personal tour of the White House - just the 2 of them, no aides. After 2 hours of unfettered access to the most powerful man in the world Webb said he had to start making excuses to bring the whole thing to an end - it rather endeared him to me. It hasn’t altered my views on the Iraq war one bit, but everybody who has spent any time with him, from whichever side, seems to regard him as a thoroughly decent human being.
And, he is a mountain biker 😀
Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence. Mark Rubio
the GOP is full of Trumpian-alike popularists who have the same bonkers ideas, but scarily aren’t actually mad...Worrying times
My cousin lives in Texas (green card holder, Democrat) and has told me that Bush Jnr was actually pretty good as a governor back in the day. Apparently he was fine switching between English and Spanish in speeches and interviews and was quite eloquent. What happened when he got into higher office?
As for who would be next? I don’t think there is a doubt that Trump would have pushed for one of his to follow him if he could not change the law to allow him to run for a third term, probably Ivanka. Now though? Nope. All tainted.
One friend here is putting money on Kanye for 2024, I’m not convinced.
So what do I take from this encounter? Americans are taught at an early age if they work hard they can have a slice of the American dream. whatever that is.. They are also taught that capitalism is great and anything else is no good at all. So they bust themselves working into an early grave believing that they can reach some sort of utopia, even if they never get there they will kill themselves trying, and blame someone else for their failure.
Most folk would prefer a 'dream' than reality. And when they start to not believe the 'dream', give them an enemy (Jews, EU, Blacks, immigrants, Irish, Latino's etc) who's taking their dream.
It's worked for ever, and will continue to.
In Trump's case, they even voted for someone who doesn't pay taxes, because he gave them the dream that one day they'll* be rich enough that they won't pay taxes either.
* - spoiler alert, only criminals don't pay taxes
I think the Republican Party has some serious thinking to do. Does it carry on appealing primarily to the nut jobs, or does it try to rebase itself as more centrist. The problem is that the upper echelons of the party are now stuffed with quite a few of the nut jobs 😀
I still use “unknown unknowns” myself, it’s a useful concept.
It's a variation on Johari's Window, just draw a 2x2 grid and label the columns as things you know, things you don't know, and the rows are then questions you ask and ones you don't. So one corner of the window is things you don't know, but you don't know you don't know.
aka. Black Swan's. No normal European person questions that Swan's are white, it's just a fact. Until all of a sudden, you see an Australian Swan and it's black. You didn't know that you should even question that Swan's might not be white.
A bit like Conway's clumsy "alternative facts" statement. If I told you that Swans are black, you'd call me a liar, it's not a lie, it's just a fact from someone with an alternative viewpoint (perhaps they genuinely did believe they had higher turnout and access to better figures?). Or in Conway's case probably a lie.
The known knowns speech is enough to paint Bush two with the idiot brush all day long. Not been good at public speaking and being a bit better than Clinton hardly makes for top Leader of the free world materiel. Obama appears to have been the only sane US president in my lifetime.
Dude that was Rumsfeld - and it actually became known as a rather astute insight into risk management amongst resilience, security and epistemology types.
aka. Black Swan’s. No normal European person questions that Swan’s are white, it’s just a fact. Until all of a sudden, you see an Australian Swan and it’s black. You didn’t know that you should even question that Swan’s might not be white.
Someones been reading Nicholas Taleb material.
Serious answer - I think they will go for someone patrician with gravitas
I give you...Tucker Carlson
The Lincoln Project’s Steve Schmidt predicted that Fox News personality Tucker Carlson could be the next GOP presidential nominee.
“I think that Tucker Carlson is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2024,” the political analyst told MSNBC while discussing the current presidential election and its aftermath.The Lincoln Project’s Steve Schmidt predicted that Fox News personality Tucker Carlson could be the next GOP presidential nominee.
The American dream has to be one of the best marketing / con jobs in the world, better than the North Korea brain washing.
No central structure to hate, get resentful towards, bring down. Anyone can make it, but vast majority will die trying with terrible worker rights, health care, huge debt etc.
I see them to all in on this strategy, and try do another crazy, which will fail spectacularly and cause chaos.
A lot of people are going to end up in jail under Biden as they start targeting the right wing extremists.
Black swans are used in philosophy 101, illustrating examples of logic which can be undermined by observation. Or something.
I didn't actually know about black swans until I took a philosophy degree, so imagine how blown my mind was.
I have known about black swans for almost as long as I have known about swans, and well before I first saw Swan Lake. I have never read the book, so I thought it was something to do with very rare things that you know about but discount, rather than things you didn't even know you didn't know about. Which I only learned from this thread (which is probably not the most reliable source).
Which I only learned from this thread (which is probably not the most reliable source).
How could you say such a thing?
STW is the fount of all knowledge.
timbog160
Full MemberI heard Justin Webb tell a story where towards the end of his office he did an interview and Bush insisted on taking him on a personal tour of the White House – just the 2 of them, no aides. After 2 hours of unfettered access to the most powerful man in the world Webb said he had to start making excuses to bring the whole thing to an end – it rather endeared him to me. It hasn’t altered my views on the Iraq war one bit, but everybody who has spent any time with him, from whichever side, seems to regard him as a thoroughly decent human being.
I think one of the main things about this is that however you felt about his politics, Bush did love America, and he absolutely loved the institution of the presidency, and felt it was a duty and an honour. Not in the way people say "respect the office" now which basically meant "don't criticise the incumbent even if you spent the last 10 years doing exactly that yourself" And that's not only why he wanted to show the place off and talk about the history and the paintings and such; it's also why he knew every inch of the place, all the stories and the historical significance.
Whereas, Trump occasionally did the same, and his highlights were "Where Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky... you know", complete with gestures, lots of made up stuff about himself, weirdly claiming Obama never used the Oval Office, and a completely imaginary "hole in the wall" that he had to have fixed because Obama used to watch basketball through it when he was supposed to be working. That was how he showed his respect for the presidency and the whitehouse.
Dude that was Rumsfeld – and it actually became known as a rather astute insight into risk management amongst resilience, security and epistemology types.
Oops! Good job I’m not running for president. Honestly thought it was Bush. In my defence I was rather young at the time. The speech seems like a needlessly complex way to say something quite simple to me. Plenty of other Bush madness to choose from though.
My latest nomination is for the guy in his underwear at the Four Seasons Garden Centre.
I give you…Tucker Carlson
Dear god. Pray that's not true, the man's an absolute roaster. I think I'd rather keep Trump.
The American dream has to be one of the best marketing / con jobs in the world,
It’s just a rehash of Christianity. Keep the plebs in place with their dismal life on the promise of a better after life.
You know, I was just thinking we're about due a stark raving godder like Peter Popoff. He must be about the right age too.
I think one of the main things about this is that however you felt about his politics, Bush did love America, and he absolutely loved the institution of the presidency, and felt it was a duty and an honour. Not in the way people say “respect the office” now which basically meant “don’t criticise the incumbent even if you spent the last 10 years doing exactly that yourself” And that’s not only why he wanted to show the place off and talk about the history and the paintings and such; it’s also why he knew every inch of the place, all the stories and the historical significance.
I think it's also a really good example of why you really do need to keep an open mind.
Like it or not your "Bush is an idiot" view was created by the media. You never met him to form that judgment, you just saw clips of him on the news, read the headlines, and applied a lot of hindsight. You were manipulated into that view.
The difference with Trump perhaps is that Twitter gives us a relatively unadulterated source. But how many of you actually follow him on Twitter, and how many just look at it when another media source quotes his Twitter?
Same with Thatcher, before my time, my dislike of her is probably purely the result of reading the Guardian.
My theory is that Mitt Romney will go again, the vote to impeach him provides a useful excuse to distance himself from Trump policy. Plus he's got cash behind him and is a GOP name.
thisisnotaspoon
Same with Thatcher, before my time, my dislike of her is probably purely the result of reading the Guardian.
I'll never reconcile myself with her I'm afraid. That said, she did truly believe she was doing good for the country not for herself.
I’ll never reconcile myself with her I’m afraid. That said, she did truly believe she was doing good for the country not for herself.
And therein lies the crux of the problem.
Do I think Jeremy Hunt is a fundamentally despicable person who hates the NHS, or was he just in charge of deciding where the cuts fell within the NHS and there were no right answers? Would I have a different opinion if his political career had been during the preceding 10 years of boom rather than bust.
Ditto IDS (less likely)
Ditto Cameron and Osborne (somewhere inbetween).
George W Bush was famously the lowest IQ president to have served the US at the time he became President, with a known IQ score of 91…
Bill Clinton is a member of MENSA!
ENOUGH of this Post-Truth Bullshit please… Trump is going/gone, can we stick to the **** facts from now on please! 🤨
Except you've just fallen for some "post-truth bullshit".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Presidential_IQ_hoax
Can you pardon someone before they are charged?
I think technically you can, but the courts might take that as an admission of guilt and that might make it harder for him.
I don't think there's anything in the rules that say a President can't pardon themselves (not the done thing though, but hey, thats never stopped him before), also Trump could resign the Presidency coming up to the handover, Pence could pardon him and then possibly he can magically unresign himself.
Personally, don't forget Trump would almost certainly have kept the keys to the White House if it wasn't for Covid, so I think Trump will bully the Republicans into accepting the defacto next candidate as being either Ivanka, Eric or Jared (obviously they would be there to pardon daddy/daddy-in-law from his four year court battles...).
To get this thread back on track. It has to be Ted nugent as kid rocks running mate. It's the dream team
I can also see the GOP looking at the Boden/Harris ticket and deciding to go with Pence (white, authoritarian, Christian) and a suitable Florida based Latin vote garner ... Which would be scary because he's as right-wing as trump but isn't a disorganised narcissist. Let's hope the dems can flip the senate
Romney does seem to be trying to establish himself as the voice of reason. Which, in any other year, would be quite a remarkable thing.
To get this thread back on track. It has to be Ted nugent as kid rocks running mate. It’s the dream team
I’m liking the cut of your jib. That would be an entirely new level of insanity.
I reckon the next series of The Apprentice will give us the next candidate.
In the UK many people voted for their tory constituency candidate not because they liked or believed in the candidate or party leader but because they believed in their personal understanding of small scale and local conservatism.
Same in the US but various elements have been conflated and polarised to become...you're with me or you're against me.
Polarised, personalised and completely without nuance.
Educational standards have - apparently - increased but understanding and tolerance have gone the other way.
Something of a disconnect there.
Did anyone hear gorka, trump's talking arsehole, on 5live earlier?
F me sideways - what a colossally ignorant, arrogant and loud-mouthed stroker.
Cougs...
I give you…Tucker Carlson
Dear god. Pray that’s not true, the man’s an absolute roaster. I think I’d rather keep Trump.
You read it here first.
In the UK many people voted for their tory constituency candidate not because they liked or believed in the candidate or party leader but because they believed in their personal understanding of small scale and local conservatism.
This.
I had a conversation with a neighbour and he quoted me what the Conservatives "stood for" - finance, education, law & order etc.
"Are you sure?" I asked, "because the actual evidence doesn't back you up, let's start with doubling the debt pile and then we can move onto police numbers...".
I think one of the main things about this is that however you felt about his politics, Bush did love America, and he absolutely loved the institution of the presidency, and felt it was a duty and an honour.
Nixon was a nasty piece of work, but, with the exception of Trump, all modern Presidents have served what they believed to be America's best interests, regardless of whether we agree with what they did. G.W. Bush is a very nice guy on a personal level according to pretty much everyone who has met him. He was a terrible President, but that was generally incompetence, not malice.
Until Trump, everyone had the basic decency to show some respect for their political opponents, but Trump has changed the game, that's why so many of the Republican establishment have come out against him. Previously, they had to hold their noses and pretend they didn't smell the racism of their far-right supporters, but Trump just came out and encouraged it. Having chased away any remaining moderates, the Republican Party is now dominated by nutters so their next candidate will be whoever can channel Trump most effectively. If I had to pick one name, it would be Tucker Carlson.
Has anybody said yet that they will probably just stick with Trump for 2024?
Has anybody said yet that they will probably just stick with Trump for 2024?
I don't think Trump will have much appetite for another run. He didn't really expect to win last time, he mostly did it as a publicity stunt, then he found that it was much more work than he realized. He likes the media attention, having a cool private jet, and famous people having to take him seriously, but, overall, I don't think he really enjoyed being President very much.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1325345374953943040
Not sure what to make of this idea. Thing with Trump is that his blissful ignorance is what makes him attractive to his supporters - everyone knows that he was bullshitting about the crowd size at his inauguration, for example, buy they're happy about it because the people they despise are driven crazy by the sheer audacity of the bullshitting. I'm not sure that anyone competent could pull off the act.
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1324779434558267392
I don’t think he really enjoyed being President very much.
completely agree, I think Trump is going to enjoy being an Ex President (with all the trappings that comes with) much more than he ever was actually having to do the job, as let's be fair to him, Trump hasn't ever had to do any actual real work in his entire life, I'd imagine being President came as something as a rude shock to him.
Just like Bojo!
Just like Bojo!
He is just cummings spokesman, so not a lot of work to do really
I think Trump is going to enjoy being an Ex President (with all the trappings that comes with) much more than he ever was actually having to do the job
Not sure it will make that much difference to him TBF. He'll still mostly be playing gold or raging on twitter.
I think Trump is going to enjoy being an Ex President (with all the trappings that comes with)
San Quentin is lovely in the spring...
completely agree, I think Trump is going to enjoy being an Ex President (with all the trappings that comes with) much more than he ever was actually having to do the job
I'd not be so sure. I suspect the Trump brand will have taken a sufficient battering that once they've not got any direct power they might be a bit cut off and isolated from high society.
If you were a CEO of a company/charity, and looking to book an after-dinner speaker for your Christmas do, who'd you get? Clinton? Bush? Obama? Trump?
Even the number of people who want to be associated with his golf courses or live in Trump tower must have dwindled. Even if you were a captain of industry and Trump supporters due to deregulation and low taxes, you'd have to be blinkered to not acknowledge that any public association with him is going to put off a proportion of your customers (unless you own an arms company perhapse).
Will Fox news have him on every day to rant about Biden?
Will the Republican Party want him front and center?
I think retirement will involve mostly impotent rage, far-right rallies, and possibly another divorce.
Does anyone seriously think Donald Trump is going to go to prison?!
There’s no doubt that he should… Will he though? You have a point there…
Sadly, I think the very real possibility is that the 46th President of the US won’t be Joe Biden, but will in fact be Mike Pence… Trump isn’t likely to stick around for 9-10 weeks to preside over whatever is left, he might just **** off as soon as he has resigned himself to defeat, and leave Pence to preside over the next few weeks. This in itself, would create a strange situation, where the outgoing President is afforded one last pardon… It’s very possible that Pence could pardon Trump as Gerald Ford did Richard Nixon! 🤔
The prez can only pardon offences committed at the Federal level. So all the tax (and fraud etc) stuff being pursued by the Southern District of New York is nothing to do with whoever is president and any convictions or sentences emanating will stand.
Biden might well think that prosecuting Trump would be counterproductive (rile up his base, more evidence of trumped up Dem attacks etc), but unless he wanted to interfere with the work of the Attorney General (ie be guilty of exactly that that Trump has been doing) then he's going to have to let it play out.
In which case Trump may find it difficult to tweet from prison.
Also worth bearing in mind there's a lot of others vulnerable. Don Jr is in it up the neck re tax and fraud, as is Eric. Ivanka and Jared are certainly guilty of profiting from the presidency, if there's a paper trail then Barr could be in trouble. And as for Rudi, he'll be getting many opportunities to tuck in his trousers at the special prison hell that he's headed to.
Re the original thread, I'd have thought Ice Cube with Kid Rock as VP. Covers race, Southern v Northern, urban v rural. Dream ticket for sure
