piemonster - Member
Any way despite my strong dislike of Putin he plays geopolitics with skill (but no ethics)The no ethics thing is really his trump card. Russia is in a position where its acceptable to carpet and cluster bomb.
Just like the Merican carpet bombing the Viet Cong short of nuking the place ... bloody peasants trying to wage war. 😛
Japan on the other hand got nuked though. They would have nuked Germany had they developed the weapon then ...
Ethics or not winner(s) makes the rules.
The question now is whether the arms race will continue to increase considering that Merica is coming out with laser weapon ... Can the Chinese invent UFO to leapfrog decades of peasants weaponry?
The no ethics thing is really his trump card
You think our foreign policy has ethics?
Its the same as his self interest and expediency
I suppose our violence is predictable - are you our poodle? Yes = safe No = the enemy of freedom
Its not like Saudi is a democracy we admire now is it.
IMHO we really should not be surprised not judge Russia for doing what we do - protecting our interests abroad. Like us he has no morals either and he wats a Russian friendly Syria at almisr any cost
Like us he has no morals either and he wats a Russian friendly Syria at almisr any cost
This is the crux of it. Russia has far more to lose in Syria than any other outsider. It's their strongest foothold in the region and Assad is a decent customer which is the exact reason that the west wants Assad gone. America and the rest expecting them to only go after Daesh and not the FSA etc is fanciful at best.
I'd go out on a limb and say that the FSA gaining control of Syria would be an unmitigated disaster and would end up just like Iraq.
As someone said earlier, we should just leave the russians to it.
You think our foreign policy has ethics?
Yes. The sort of ethics that means we generally accept extra judicial assassinations so long as they're relatively quiet.
Interesting that Russian aircraft can so easily be shot down.
Fighter-bomber shot down at what seems like close-ish range for missiles. 80s tech versus modern tech innit
Interesting that Russian aircraft can so easily be shot down.
What do you call "easily" ?
Most belligerents in the conflict don't have the capabilities to easily shoot down Russian aircraft. However presumably if you have at your disposal a fully armed NATO F-16 which fires air to air missiles, and use this capability unexpectedly and without warning, it becomes significant easier.
Particularly when the russians were not expecting air threats.
Now the Russians are parking S-400's in Syria, so no more bombing of Kurds by Turkey....
That didn't end well for Turkish interests did it, all for a 10 odd second violation of their airspace.
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The Syrians have remade Spinal Tap?
Has Turkey bombed Syrian Kurds? I know they fired some shells at Tal Abyad a few weeks ago but I thought their bombing of PKK was only in Iraq (and Turkey)
Interesting that Russian aircraft can so easily be shot down.
ZOMG!!! Do you think it was a false flag?! I noticed they originally said both pilots had been killed then SUDDENLY they're both ok...makes you think...
"Now navigator safe, #Russia exacting revenge on Turkmen in #Syria for dead pilot & marine. Begun intensive shelling of Bay?rbucak mountain."
surprise...
Soon to be Bay?rbucak plains.......
The Syrians have remade Spinal Tap?
More like Aphrodites Child going by the presence of a young Demis Roussos on the right there
I thought he looks like Adam Jones slimmer brother.
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Looks like he's ????? been to the Matt Le Blanc school of acting
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ninfan - MemberMore like Aphrodites Child going by the presence of a young Demis Roussos on the right there
Posted 45 minutes ago #
Dear God! I thought I was the only person in the world who actually owned that...A prog concept album on the Apocalypse?
What Tom said (and I posted up yesterday) - the Turks have been exclusively bombing the Kurds (Syrian Kurds are PKK as far as they are concerned) Russian bombers will have fighter escorts now and the ground to air missiles will keep the Turks away. I would expect the Turkmen to get a very solid beating inc from Russian special forces, knock out water and electricity and force mass refugee flood to Turkey ?
As posted above a fighter with air to air missiles can easily shoot down a ground atack bomber flying along in a straightline not expecting to be shot at. There where teo Russian bombers they shot down one
So Russia are getting sucked further into the conflict, more personnel and equipment
Increasing the financial and political cost
Now the wealthier Russians have even less places to go for their winter breaks, might be a boost to the Greek tourist economy tho,
The Russian pilot says there were no warnings. Obviously the truth is either:
a) exactly that
b) the Kremlin is making excuses before they unleash the Black Sea fleet (no matter how dishevelled it is)
One of those[ i doubt either side is being completely honest] they probably encroached they probably warned them[ not as many as they claim] and have wanted them previously and they decided to draw a line in the sand via shooting them down
Or they warned in Turkish, or on an alternative frequency, or both.
Or the hot-shit pilot thought that there was nothing anyone could do about it anyway? Or the Turks wanted to give the russians some shit for bombing their mates? Neither would remotely surprise me.
Or they warned in Turkish, or on an alternative frequency, or both.
I'd considered the alternative frequency, I hadn't considered a language issue.
I assume the international language of aviation ultimatums is English, were both sides fluent?
The Russian pilot says there were no warnings. Obviously the truth is either....
The Russian pilot also says that he didn't enter Turkish airspace.
Whatever the truth most people seem to agree that if the Russian plane did indeed enter Turkish airspace it was only for a matter of a few seconds, it certainly did not pose any threat at all to Turkey.
The incident was not an act of self-denfense by Turkey but a political motivated act. It was presumably design to halt the growing rapprochement between NATO and Russia over ISIS and further Turkey's personal agenda with regards to the Syrian Civil War.
I don't think there is any evidence that the incident was orchestrated by the Kremlin as excuse "before they unleash the Black Sea fleet", whatever that means.
How big is Turkey's Military!
I thought they were all about dancing in skirts, kebabs and cheap holidays - seems they've got 300 or so F16s, 13 Subs, 100 mobile missile launchers, the big ones that look a bit like tanks, not a dude with a tube on his shoulder and a bunch of armed drones.
I assume the international language of aviation ultimatums is English, were both sides fluent?
All communications between NATO planes is in English, at least it should be. I would expect Turkish pilots to communicate in English between themselves, at least some of the time. I certainly wouldn't expect them to communicate in any language other than English to a foreign pilot.
You know there might have been a technical glitch with coms or he was on a different frequency by mistake/coincidence.
So it is feasible this was just a FUBAR mistake.
Turkey isn't battle-tested is it? There will be a retaliation. I imagine there are alot of ground to air shoulder launchers being despatched to the region right now by Russia.
[i]How big is Turkey's Military![/i]
Second largest army in Nato.
[i]Turkey isn't battle-tested is it? [/i]
Most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would sink before it got within firing distance of Turkey so I reckon the Turks would still stand a chance.
The incident was not an act of self-denfense by Turkey
Agree fully - even if they did clip the bottom corner of Turkish airspace for a few seconds, there was no identifiable threat, and they were clearly not on a course that would take them deeper into Turkish airspace - no way was the response proportionate.
IIRC Turkey are a signatory to the ECHR, so article 2 would clearly prohibit such a disregard to right to life in the absence of an identifiable threat.
I want to see dog fights between Turks' OEM F-16 and Sukhoi Su-35.
See how effective is Sukhoi against F-16 flown by Turkish pilots.
chip - Member
That's F-14 vs F-5E innit!
timidwheeler - Member
The Syrians have remade Spinal Tap?
Why is the Cyprus Hill bloke doing there? Insane in the membrane?
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Even Turkey's version shows idiotic response by them. 17 seconds clearly passing over narrow spur of land. Its not hard to do that in error - a quick tweak left and you're entirley over Syria
Seems a bit disproportionate doesn't it jamba?
Turkey isn't battle-tested is it?
Haven't they been fighting Kurds for years in quite a significant war?
The Turk has fired and the missile not struck the Russian till he's back in Syria. Trigger happy and it will be expensive for Turkey and the Turkmen
I can find my car using google earth but it isn't there now and in fact hasn't been there for years.
From recollection I disagree a lot with Tom's opinions and politics but his factual analysis seems well informed.
The Russian's beat the Germans because they had better kit and bigger numbers . German technical superiority was very much theoretical the vast majority of their supply and main units were horse drawn their tanks though well designed were unreliable and few in number they were also slow to build . like Napoleon Germany also failed to appreciate the scale on the undertaking or the severity of winter.
The American army is vast and equipped with quality functioning kit. Unlike 1930s Germany the USA is a very big country with significant resources.
Any way despite my strong dislike of Putin he plays geopolitics with skill (but no ethics) I doubt he will slide into war with a NATO power over this but he will use the incident to wrestle a lot of room to manoeuvre in Syria.
Thanks Crankboy, I don't really believe my own politics anyway and I don't like ascribing to a set world view (eg left vs right). I like anyone with a good opinion, even if it's not my own, that is backed up with some reasoning....and then I like arguing with that person 🙂 If very few people here like my politics, it's simply because I can't help playing the contrarian.
Anyway, I'm going to quote a line in a Guardian comment that made me laugh. "Let's keep the present trend in supported ignorance going, pretty soon the morons will only be able to utter their shallow and incredibly ill considered vitriolic opinions through a series of short form chicken scratches, because they'll be incapable of even stringing a few coherent sentences together to form an argument."
The world would be more peaceful if people took the time to understand conflict and politics a little more.
Tom_W1987 - Member
...The world would be more peaceful if people took the time to understand conflict and politics a little more.
Or if the heroic keyboard warriors on each side met in pitched battle with sharp implements, the rest of us could get on with our peaceful lives.
If this is real (from the wikileaks twitter), then Turkey need to remember that the first rule of lying is to get your story straight. Quite damning. Less than 1 mile inside Turkey for 17 seconds and they shot it down. It may be true that the Russian pilots ignored 10 warnings over 5 minutes if for most of those 5 mins they were inside Syrian airspace.
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I suppose Turkey could argue they were warning them to change course before entering and once they did then shot them after having given several warnings
The Syrian Air force has its own SU24s so they could say it was a potential threat
the russians do have a history of ignoring warnings
on the other hand Erdogan seems to be a right tosser so I wouldnt put it past him doing it all on purpose
seems like the russians are in for a bit of tit for tat and are moving in [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_%28missile%29 ]s400 missile systems[/url] into theatre. Has an operational range of upto 400 km, when the Syrian rebels and is have no planes who are they going to be targeting ? 🙄
who are they going to be targeting ?
NATO planes that attack them, would be a reasonable hunch to me. Have you got any other suggestions?
