Storm Babet

The sooner such flights are banned the better

well, in most countries that's going to be HSR (see France's recent laws to ban flights where HSR is lees than 2 hours between destinations) Given that Sunak just not only canned HS2, but salted the ground to make it impossible to resurrect, I guess more people should invest in sandbags.

But also, that we've had a decade of wetter weather doesn't, by itself, prove climate change. Just saying.

But also, that we’ve had a decade of wetter weather doesn’t, by itself, prove climate change. Just saying.

Ignoring all the other related weather events doesn't, by itself, disprove climate change. Just saying.

Walking through our woods yesterday and the trees look like they've been through the shredder, while still standing. Ive never seen so much green leaf debris on the ground.

In other news there was also a parakeet. Bit far north being as we're in north County Durham.

n other news there was also a parakeet. Bit far north being as we’re in north County Durham.

That is a southern bird - there is a wild flock in Glasgow.

That is a southern bird – there is a wild flock in Glasgow.

I did not know that. Still, probably a much warmer climate than 1000' up overlooking the empty nothingness that is the north pennines.

The sooner such flights are banned the better

The one London Edinburgh train I was lucky enough to get on on Sat was standing room only. I know folks who were trying to get to Sheffield on Friday by train only making it back yesterday. Surprised this wasn't more in the news, though perhaps "UK trains are shite" may not be a hold the front page story. I'd have considered a flight to Leeds, tbh.

The sooner such flights are banned the better

Considering your posting history suggests you have oil burning central heating, drive an ICE and burn an open fire at Xmas just for decorative reasons, I’d recommend looking a bit closer to home….

In other news there was also a parakeet. Bit far north being as we’re in north County Durham.

They've been in the country since the were accidently released in London some time the 70's and have been moving steadily northwards ever since. I guess one of the upsides is the increase in the falcons that used to prey on house sparrows and experienced a decline, are now repopulating lost areas using the parakeets as a food source.

The other upside is they look awesome. Who doesn't like seeing a Parrot in a tree on a grey day? As long as they don't start taking over I'm all for more parrots. They should accidentally release some big Macaws I say. #moparrotsplz

As long as they don’t start taking over

hmmm, sadly although they're not aggressive to other birds, size of flocks, noise they make can drive out smaller species. BUT like grey squirrels, it's not the parakeets fault, they're just being parakeets, it's humans (isn't it always) who're to blame.

Considering your posting history suggests you have oil burning central heating, drive an ICE and burn an open fire at Xmas just for decorative reasons, I’d recommend looking a bit closer to home….

Yeah you're right we shouldn't be looking to make these sorts of large substantive changes until everybody is living a perfect net zero existence.

Fnnar
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No, storm Boaby to go with hurricane bawbag.

That’s because people think it’s acceptable to fly from Glasgow to London

Bindun, tl:dr - trains are absolutely shite and useless if you want to travel anywhere other than to/from major cities before 1700.

I think dantsw is a pilot so, if that's correct, it's pointless having a pop at him.
All he's doing is helping to service the demand; he hasn't created the demand nor can he or any other pilot influence or control it.

I don’t really care what his job is tbh, what I find ridiculous is the insinuation that it’s only worth state or similar level action to mitigate the effects of climate change (in any sphere, not just transport) once we’re all living whiter than white lives.

@nickc What kind of falcons? We all need more sparrowhawks IMO.

Mostly Sparrowhawks, Peregrine and Hobbies I think have done well of the back of the larger flocks.

But also, that we’ve had a decade of wetter weather doesn’t, by itself, prove climate change. Just saying.

No, but fortunately scientists aren't just looking out of their windows and thinking 'hmm, been wet lately hasn't it?'

No they're probably not, but I'll bet their metrological colleagues are probably exercising some caution when trying to draw conclusions about long term weather patterns when looking a such a small (relatively speaking) group of data. Weather on such short timescales is the original chaos maths, and it may very well be that the next decade is one of the driest...which again, in of itself, does nothing to prove or disprove climate change.

Looking at one picture on a forum from a pilot commenting on the fact that he's never seen so much water, regardless of the fact that he's flying just after the biggest storm of the season so far, shouldn't really prompt anyone to draw conclusions about climate change either. There's a picture in an attic somewhere taken by my maternal grandfather as he flew over northern Europe in winter 1944, showing fields and fields underwater there's a note on the back that says something like "yesterday the sea was miles away"...

Wrong sort of rain, tis obvious really 

Wrong sort of rain

And the blessed Therese rolled her eyes at the stupidity of her department telling her that spring tides are due this week. IN AUTUMN?!?!

but I’ll bet their metrological colleagues are probably exercising some caution when trying to draw conclusions about long term weather patterns when looking a such a small (relatively speaking) group of data.

Got any sources for that? Edit: I'm certainly not believing *someone on the internet* who *thinks* that *maybe* a meteorologist *might* have a slightly different view to a climate scientist.

MetOffice seem pretty convinced.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/climate-change-in-the-uk

I didn't suggest that the Met office don't believe in climate change. 

Wrong sort of rain, tis obvious really

Not really the wrong [b]sort[/b] of rain, more that it played a cheap trick of coming from the wrong direction which probably makes it a leftie socialist plot.

It must have been sent by the EU as punishment for Brexit. Those foreigners will stop at nothing to stifle the UK's unfettered freedoms.

Not really the wrong sort of rain, more that it played a cheap trick of coming from the wrong direction which probably makes it a leftie socialist plot.

Bloody communist/socialist/marxist rain, coming over here and spoiling our right wing leaning rain patterns.

Bloody communist/socialist/marxist rain, coming over here and spoiling our right wing leaning rain patterns.

Hmmm, so self-regulating weather is finally proof that market forces are fundamentally just and predictable. An interesting thesis.

I reckon the Russians have been cloud seeding and then turning the wind farms up to 11.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/woqdeYnos3o?si=pDBQoOVwlK6ITGar

Edit. YouTube link to Therese Coffey wrong type of rain wouldn't load correctly

Its all over twitter. Bloody pesky rain! Catching everyone out by sneaking around the back while nobody was looking

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1717122209494241575?s=20

Watch it and marvel that this woman is a government minister

I'm sitting in a flood incident room as I'm typing this.  It's easily managed, we've just turned the maps the other way up, East, West it's all relative innit.

Bit concerned about the autumn tides at the weekend though.

In fairness it's not as daft as it sounds, we're always going to be better prepared for more common weather directions and trends, and we do generally get more of our heavy rain from the west. So that'll change how and where it falls most, how rivers react, etc etc. I don't know how much of a difference it makes on the ground but if nothing else it'll challenge the modelling, and maybe it's one of hte reasons that so much of Babet was, well, weird and localised. Like how Arwen was especially damaging because of the prevailing wind direction.

Course, part of the job is to be prepared for untypical, to have adequate resources and agility etc to deal with the unexpected. And that's going to get more and more important since one of the most fundamental things about climate change is that more energy in the system means more unpredictability. When she talks about it, it feels like she sees it as an excuse rather than a warning shot.

It makes no difference 'on the ground'.

She's clearly heard someone commenting that it's unusual to have a system from the East at this time of year and decided by herself to use that as an excuse for something, no one here has any idea what point she's trying to make.

Its all over twitter. Bloody pesky rain! Catching everyone out by sneaking around the back while nobody was looking

I think it was predicted pretty well no? Just a few days in advance rather than 10 years in advance...

pictonroad
Full Member

It makes no difference ‘on the ground’.

How does it not? Genuine question since you're obviously an expert here but, prevailing wind and geography is why the UK's rainfall map looks like this. Rain falls depending on how it hits the land/hills, rivers and floodplains and such form depending on typical weather over millenia but built environment stuff has the same biases on the shorter term, so much "flood prevention" stuff is reactions to previous floods and failures. I can't see how this wouldn't be important?

River catchments are defined by topography and geology. The flooding is driven by rainfall volume & intensity, preceding ground and river conditions and in some cases blockages, manual intervention etc. Once you get to a catchment level, it makes no odds whether it's arrived from the east or west.

Ensemble forecasting will give a range of likely weather events, again, these are equally easy/difficult to produce independent of direction. A reasonable worst case is then used to scale up the response.

Coastal flooding is dependant on the direction of the weather and had this been coastal (as it may be later this week) then people will be monitoring the wind direction very closely.

It's worth noting that there is an underlying political element to her response. Flood Warnings are being sent automatically without manual intervention due to industrial actions as the people responding to the forecasts have had real term pay cuts for over a decade. It suits the narrative that the response could have been better when in reality it was well forecast, and tens of thousands of homes were protected.

The unions suspended action in advance of this storm and the operational response was unaffected.

(I'm not an expert, happy to answer being expert adjacent though)

You make a good point on flood modelling Northwind. (Hang on, North-wind  I smell a conspiracy... 😉)

Modelling, is, to an extent reliant on previous events to give a basis of event size and frequency. The changing climate is making this difficult and where we may forecast rain falling in a certain pattern - say, from the West, then the future planning for catchment level interventions may need to be revisited.

https://twitter.com/hydrometryea/status/1716395442504688038?s=46

Early analysis is showing at least 170 gauging stations have seen their highest ever recorded levels… many of these station records are decades old.

(I have no idea how to embed that link, apologies)

pictonroad
Full Member

River catchments are defined by topography and geology. The flooding is driven by rainfall volume & intensity, preceding ground and river conditions and in some cases blockages, manual intervention etc. Once you get to a catchment level, it makes no odds whether it’s arrived from the east or west.

Sure but, saying "once you get to a catchment level" seems like you're essentially talking about the water on the ground but not how it got there? Surely an identical storm from east or west (which I know is impossible, but, for the sake of argument) will drop rain in different places and volumes and massively influence what ends up in the catchment areas in the first place?

(I think I might have caused this, by saying "on the ground" when so much of what matters here happens "in the sky" 🙂 Let's say "in practice" instead)

She’s clearly heard someone commenting that it’s unusual to have a system from the East at this time of year and decided by herself to use that as an excuse for something, no one here has any idea what point she’s trying to make.

I assume its a mix of that and a vague memory of storm Arwen where the unusual direction did make a serious difference.

It's totally right for you to believe that the direction of the rain makes a difference to the quality of the flooding response. The Environment secretary has just told parliament that this is the case.  I wish it were that simple!

Absolutely, there will be a difference in the shape of the hydrograph, say, using your example, the rain arrives first on an urban catchment where it usually falls on a rural catchment first. You're totally correct. However, we're a small island and the areas we're talking about are pretty small, those kind of differences are within the variance of responses. Once you're into flood conditions then such differences don't affect the response.
Scale it up enough and it will but the areas used in England are small enough for it not to matter on a material level.
Look how many flood warnings were issued on the weekend, each one of these is based on local conditions.