We were outside our hotel when one came to drop a passenger off and we stood Infront of the car to see what happened and it would not drive off untill we moved.
I've just come through a mainline London station which has a robot cleaning machine. About waist height to an adult, a big boxy vacuum cleaner type thing that moves slowly around the place with cameras and sensors.
It reached a floor-standing advertising hoarding with a picture of a man on it, paused and then its robotic voice said "excuse me please, stand back". Maybe it recognised the shape of a person and just assumed it was real?
It repeated this a couple of times and when the advertising hoarding (unsurprisingly) didn't move, it seemed slightly put out, paused for a moment then turned around and slid off elsewhere.
What a lot of commentators here seem to ignore that (particularly in cities) autonomous electric vehicles will drive a paradigm shift in urban transport. There will no longer be a need to own a car. Car usage will be much cheaper without the need to own a car. Cars can be small and basic without the need to have all the frills and shit that increases weight and bulk to get people to buy the latest thing
This is not autonomous cars replacing the way we currently use cars, this will engender a paradigm shift in urban transport creating less congestion, less harm and less cost
We need a car for a journey - say to get the weekly shopping? Call one up on an app on your phone, go outside and tell it to go to the supermarket. Call up another to get home. While you are in the supermarket the car is off doing another trip instead of sitting in a car park
This is not autonomous cars replacing the way we currently use cars, this will engender a paradigm shift in urban transport creating less congestion
I agree, and this is what I was trying to say earlier. Robotaxis could be basic cheap cars since you are only doing a short trip in it, and because each one doesn't have to fund someone's livelihood they can be deployed differently - they can allocate themselves to certain areas where they're likely to be needed. This would make it really easy for me to summon a car from my phone and have it there in a few minutes - or I could walk towards it and it meets me etc. I reckon people might still want their own cars, but these things would be so easy you'd just jump in one and use that and it would be actually easier than using your own car. You don't have to find a place to park or walk back to it when you're done with whatever.
Of course they would need to be integrated with mass transit, for example I'd get one down to the train station a few miles away, from my door when I need it. If it weren't integrated we would end up with massive traffic jams of robotaxis and it would be rubbish.
The deer example above is terrible. You’re assuming you’re better than a LIDAR system at spotting marginal stuff in the dark. I doubt that you are, and the example of whether it’s deer, dogs, small children on space hoppers or drunk cyclists isn’t relevant.
This is a conspiracy theory/technology fear thread. People in general like to laugh at such threads, forums, but here we are
Well, a LIDAR system can only see what’s actually in front of the vehicle, it almost certainly won’t pick up a fleeting glimpse of light from a moving animal in a field the other side of a six foot high hedge, the gap is the width of a tractor, the deer were travelling at an angle across the field towards another narrow gap in the corner of the field. LIDAR systems aren’t even fully developed yet anyway.
Aerial view of the actual road and field, I was traveling from the left, at roughly 30-40, the road actually has a 60 limit, the actual chance of spotting the brief flash of reflected light from a deer travelling almost as fast as I was through the tiny gap must be tiny; it’s only due to the fact that I’ve driven that road countless times over many years, and seen deer come through the access gaps that now make me very, very wary when driving it, especially in the dark.
I dunno, a taxi driven by computer can only be safer than the current crop of taxi drivers who have seventeen phones scattered around the steering wheel, the seat so low they can’t see out anyway, a total disregard for any road laws or driving standards, an internal sat nav that instinctively knows the best traffic jam to sit in, a pathological dislike for vulnerable road users, and an attitude that regular maintenance and testing is below them
I for one would be glad to see the back of the Addison Lee or whatever they are now minicabs. They used to all chaos around in Toyota Prius’, it’s all about the Kia Nero. You can spot them a mile off, unable or unwilling to use one lane at a time and best avoided.
Of course they would need to be integrated with mass transit, for example I’d get one down to the train station a few miles away, from my door when I need it. If it weren’t integrated we would end up with massive traffic jams of robotaxis and it would be rubbish.
Sadly I have a feeling I know what’ll happen of the two scenarios.
I may have come across as anti self driving cars, but I’d love it. I could have had a kip whilst taking half an hour to join the A3 from the M25 today.
What a lot of commentators here seem to ignore that (particularly in cities) autonomous electric vehicles will drive a paradigm shift in urban transport. There will no longer be a need to own a car.
There is arguably already no need to own a car, it is a choice (one I have made and can change at any time).
Car usage will be much cheaper without the need to own a car.
Will it? The favoured model seems to be "Johnny Cabs for everyone" a Taxi without the driver, that vehicle still cost it's owner's money, it still has running costs and overheads and the price per mile I travel as a hypothetical customer needs to bear all of that plus a profit margin... A bit like existing meat sack operated taxis.
Cars can be small and basic without the need to have all the frills and shit that increases weight and bulk to get people to buy the latest thing
Sure, capitalism will shun optional extras and luxury features that they can mark up on the spec sheet...
This is not autonomous cars replacing the way we currently use cars, this will engender a paradigm shift in urban transport creating less congestion, less harm and less cost
I feel like the internet should ban the use of the phase "paradigm shift" more than once by any user in a 24hr period. But if you understand that to mean a fundamental change, in an already very car-centric culture, will somehow happen because FSD/AV is available, I'm not seeing it. Less congestion? When your Robo taxis are charging about the place at rush hour to maximise their number of pickups? Owned or hired all of the visions offered (by the companies that want our money for their concept products) all still seem very focussed on the idea of individuals and small groups in Car type vehicles, just without the driving, all of the underlying problems with cars are still there...
We need a car for a journey – say to get the weekly shopping? Call one up on an app on your phone, go outside and tell it to go to the supermarket. Call up another to get home. While you are in the supermarket the car is off doing another trip instead of sitting in a car park
What you've described there is currently known as a Taxi (or an Uber in some parts), you could be a smidge more efficient and use a bus to travel to the shops (when you're unladen) and a Taxi to get home after, or even (God forbid) bicycles if you're not buying huge quantities (these can be purchased or hired these days I hear)... I'm not sure what value a self driving Taxi really adds to the scenario beyond it's owner needing to recover the additional cost of the FSD systems, offset against employing a stinky human being. I'm aware that People seem to think FSD improves safety (or will) but the evidence to date doesn't seem to support that, and I'm not booking a Robo Taxi till it actually does...
I’m not seeing it.
Because there will be no need to own a car. shared ownership is much cheaper than sole ownership. these will also be more convenient as no need to find parking, get them services, etc etc
My taxi arrives, I get in, and the seats are covered in dog hair, melted ice cream and vomit from the previous occupants. Now what do I do?
You report it. another one arrives, the previous user gets fined. Just like car clubs at the moment. It is very rare that it happens.
You report it. another one arrives, the previous user gets fined. Just like car clubs at the moment. It is very rare that it happens.
Or you'll never even know it happened, because the autonomous vehicle will identify the mess itself, order your replacement vehicle, bill the previous customer and take itself off to the depot to be cleaned.
Who are these people who are going to be overfeeding hairy dogs with ice cream in taxis anyway? Won't they be too busy jumping in front of autonomous vehicles all day?
Don't forget that Elon hates public transport Any Utopian dreams anyone has of utilitarian transport can be binned off right now. The idea that these will be some sort of mass transport revolution is not the future that Tesla has in mind.
Cheapness,
It'll either cost the same or more, there's still greedy humans somewhere in that supply chain that will want their margin, no matter who owns what.
convenience,
You'll summon transport from a mobile phone, already a thing.
safety
TBC (at best). Even with all the deck stacking they currently do the tech-Bro's aren't exactly demonstrating flawless safety for the technology.
I honestly just think FSD/AV is a scam to extend car dependency and paper over the glaring issues with our current car-centric culture, the promise that even if you don't own one there's still going to be a hire car ready and waiting on demand means an at least an equivalent level of vehicles on the road and infrastructure to support them...
We could go in circles but I think it's fair to say we've made our points now, you see the convenience as worthwhile and believe profit focussed businesses can deliver SIL rated complex systems for a target price. I am focussed (perhaps a bit much?) on the problems which FSD/AV doesn't seem to actually be solving. I guess we'll find out in a couple of decades...
As I said – it will force that paradigm shift in how cars are used ?
Spoiler alert.
It won't. Cars need to move to a model of shared ownership for any number of reasons but the best, easiest, cheapest, most reliable system is simply a Car Club arrangement. No need for AV nonsense, no need for cars that drive themselves around waiting for their next pick up.
Just a scheme that replicates the dockless bike hire model but for cars. Anything else is massively overcomplicating the issue.
I’m curious as to what people think public transport in low population areas looks like in the future if it isn’t an ‘on demand’ shared vehicle?
Busses and Trains?
Imagine if the money being spunked at Johnny cabs were instead spent on boring old public transport, including for lower population, rural areas?
I honestly just think FSD/AV is a scam to extend car dependency and paper over the glaring issues with our current car-centric culture, the promise that even if you don’t own one there’s still going to be a hire car ready and waiting on demand means an at least an equivalent level of vehicles on the road and infrastructure to support them…
This! ^^
Well said. The current "scam" is EV. Yep, we can all carry on driving as we are, we don't need to change anything, we can keep building roads cos we'll all be in EV and there'll be no pollution*
The next scam, once everyone owns an EV but is still sitting in gridlock traffic, is to sell AV as a concept/subscription model. If we all give up our cars, we can summon an AV instantly.
EV and AV are not here to make your life more convenient or to save the planet. They're here to save the auto industry.
*Meaning no direct tailpipe emissions but conveniently ignoring the lithium mining...
Oh dear, a sure sign someone has lost the plot when they start calling people they disagree with Sheeple.
Doesn’t automatically mean they’re wrong though. The amount of money people chose to spend on their cars is baffling to some of us.
But instead you have, as people often do, chosen to insult the human rather than engage with their point.
The point may or may not be valid, but how about trying to discuss it rather than dismiss it out of hand because of one of the words they used.
There’s a secondary psychological thing in that “the public” in trains, planes etc are not in control whereas in their own private car they believe themselves to be in control (and most people believe themselves to be above average drivers) so they’re usually more accommodating of autonomy/AI in their own car than they would be if it were in a plane.
im not convinced that the public care about train drivers being automated. Obviously that would change if trains started crashing more due to software flaws but the barrier in my mind to automated trains is not the passengers - it’s the drivers who being very unionised will refuse to drive the old trains if their jobs are at risk (the irony being that one of the main downsides of human train drivers is they can go on strike / work to rule etc). Presumably on detecting a system fault an automated train just shutdown and an engineer comes out. Thats a bit more difficult for an aircraft at 30000 ft.
Crazy-legs - Edinburgh has had a car club for years. It’s quite good. It’s ideal for people who occasionally need a car for a short period. But it doesn’t collect you at your door, it doesn’t park itself (or go and do other useful work) when you get to your destination. The vehicles are based at fixed locations and can’t move themselves to area of high demand. Like any hire vehicle there is a little bit of faff in checking / familiarising with controls / working out the unlock arrangement on this vehicle etc. I have no doubt that there is a market for on demand AVs.
Don’t forget that Elon hates public transport Any Utopian dreams anyone has of utilitarian transport can be binned off right now. The idea that these will be some sort of mass transport revolution is not the future that Tesla has in mind.
I know some people think Elon is some kind of messiah, but he’s not the only innovative disruptor “in town”. It very much IS in the Uber plans. Uber have already done more to disrupt consumer transport than Tesla and would love to get rid of the biggest headache in their operation - the drivers.
But instead you have, as people often do, chosen to insult the human rather than engage with their point.
Ironic you say this when by calling people with a different viewpoint “Sheeple” the poster had based their argument on denigrating and insulting them.
I dunno, a taxi driven by computer can only be safer than the current crop of taxi drivers who have seventeen phones scattered around the steering wheel, the seat so low they can’t see out anyway, a total disregard for any road laws or driving standards, an internal sat nav that instinctively knows the best traffic jam to sit in, a pathological dislike for vulnerable road users, and an attitude that regular maintenance and testing is below them.
that’s the problem isn’t it? People don’t really understand statistics and risk so to convince the public, or even regulators or legislators that AVs are safe you need to convince them not that they are safer than idiot humans but that they are better than the best driver. Count Zero is a great example of this - he wants the car to anticipate a particular unique experience that he happened to avoid but which plenty of other drivers would probably fail to, and perhaps even he would fail to if the weather/deer/etc had been slightly different on the day.
by the way - I suspect AVs can be that safe already… but they would achieve it by stopping and saying “unable to proceed due to hazards ahead”. They won’t have the human ability to realise that eg bumping up a kerb might be wrong, but might occasionally be the least worst option, or that squeezing through a gap below official tolerance at walking speed is ok etc.
It very much IS in the Uber plans.
I will bet money that Tesla will not let Uber use their cars in any plan Uber may have for driver-less transport schemes. Tesla might have their own scheme (I doubt it) what I think they'll aim for is lobbying for separated traffic and regulation for their cars over and above other self-driving and possibly human driven vehicles. Elon is not about sharing, he's very much for individualism, and where he goes, the other makers will follow
we have seen two ( at least) major shifts in transporting of people.
1) the advent of railways. Prior to that people lived worked and died in a small area. Now they could travel. One branch of my family never left the parish until the railways arrived
2) the advent of cheap reliable cars in the post war years. This allowed a much increased mobility around and led to huge changes in society.
I believe self driving cars have the potential to produce changes in society at least as radical and that these changes will produce all sorts of secondary effects in the way society works
This is not a next year or even 5 years timescale but over 30 - 50 years
EV and AV are not here to make your life more convenient or to save the planet. They’re here to save the auto industry
If the auto industry are making and selling EVs to save their industry, can you explain to me why they're being heavily fined in the UK if they don't sell them?
What you’ve described there is currently known as a Taxi (or an Uber in some parts)
What you (and a huge number of entrepreneurs) overlook is that often not the principle that makes an idea successful, it's the execution. When there are loads of options, sometimes people gravitate towards one for the silliest reasons. I would much prefer a self driving pod to a taxi, and I suspect I am not alone. Why? Because taxi drivers often drive badly and make me feel ill, they have the heat on too high, their car smells funny, they try and talk to me, they don't know where they are going, and the fact you're in someone else's car with them is a little bit stressful on some basic level. On top of that, taxi pods are likely to have less wait and be much cheaper. It costs about £15 to get to town from here via taxi - that's out of the question unless I am on expenses.
EV and AV are not here to make your life more convenient or to save the planet. They’re here to save the auto industry.
The auto industry doesn't need saving, as we are all driving cars in high volumes already. Specific manufacturers might though.
In any case, EVs are going to help save the planet. Restructuring our society and city design is very much needed, but it's extremely difficult at this point, if not impossible. Switching to EVs though is going to save a huge amount of CO2 and is really pretty easy to do. Working out what to do for an extra hour on a 11 hour trip is not that hard of a problem to solve, but rebuilding society in a new utopian image? That is.
Of course, we absolutely should be working hard towards societal change for many many reasons, but whilst that struggle is going on you can still buy an EV when you need a new car.
