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Speaking as as english person, if brexit goes ahead and scotland has the chance to go independent and join the UK, I very much hope they do and then I can move there.
nbt, your slip to one side ( 😀 ) I used to think the same thing, but swapping one economy that'll be on it's arse well in to my retirement years, for another that's also generally colder, doesn't seem such a smart move now I've given it more thought.
Cause if you read the rest of that sentence it explains why.
Anyhow. Eu membership, I call bullshit on your claims. And similarly with your claim of Scotland's inability to get out of deficit. It's gone from 15% to 8% in the last 10 years too. So I'm struggling to believe your claims.
Anyhow I don't think the should be another vote until Scotland is running a surplus anyhow, or at least sitting at the accepted 3% for most countries. The Scottish gov should be planning a way out for that and you know the UK will be happy to leave it around the 8%. I'd think that could be achieved within 10 years quite easily. And that's even with the minimal growth the UK has seen over the last 10 years.
seosamh77
...Like I said, the decisions scotland makes in the future will determine it’s viability, not all this bluster before hand.
Hits the nail on the head.
As for the economic arguments, it's hard to hold the UK up as an exemplar. It's been on the bones of its arse more than once. Is that because the politicians don't listen to the economists, or have the economic projections been wrong?
Once again the argument is being put that Scotland can not successfully run its own economy. One can only draw the conclusion from that that our people are regarded as terminally stupid.
Can anyone give an example of a 1st world country that has failed after achieving independence?
I don't think there's precedent for the Scotland situation is there? Really?
You could argue the likes of the baltic states and and probably slovenia and croatia are all fairly successful european countries, and they all came out of situations much worse than what scotland is facing.
Yes, exactly - the situations in the Baltics were so much worse they only had one direction in which to go. They were occupied by a totalitarian with totally different goals to their own, and no, the Scotland/England relationship is NOTHING like that before Epicyclo going on about oppression and occupation.
molgrips
I don’t think there’s precedent for the Scotland situation is there? Really?
Not really.
As seosamh77 says we're coming out of a better position than the Baltic states, and so why would we fail when they didn't?
They have less resources, so what is anyone projecting our failure actually saying?
That our people somehow are of lesser quality?
molgrips
Subscriber
Yes, exactly – the situations in the Baltics were so much worse they only had one direction in which to go.
Theres' plenty room for improvement in scotland. But, listen i'm entirely upfront, I'm not painting a guaranteed rosey future. Like I say, if scotland goes independent, the decisions the scottish people make with in that will determine whether it's better or worse. Nothing else.
Also do you see the Irish wanting back?
Theres’ plenty room for improvement in scotland.
Yeah but I don't think it's quite the same as the USSR.
Thing is, I'll all for unity, but the UK govt has totally destroyed any notion of that now, for me.
Yeah but I don’t think it’s quite the same as the USSR.
Yip, agreed. But the idea is that small nations can stand on their own.
Can anyone give an example of a 1st world country that has failed after achieving independence?
Greece.
Anyway no-one is arguing Scotland will "fail". An independent Scotland would do okay. However we would be worse off than if we stay united with our closest neighbours and trading partners.
However we would be worse off than if we stay united with our closest neighbours and trading partners.
He said with such confidence through is his crystal ball! 😆
kennyp
However we would be worse off than if we stay united with our closest neighbours and trading partners.
Like the really big market in the EU?
There is no argument (from me) that Scotland couldn't be independent.
Only that we would be worse off if we were.
If the economic argument (as a few people have stated) doesn't matter to you then that's fine. Own it.
But it does call into question any claim you then make about the advantages of independence for spending more money on e.g. the NHS, the WASPI women (who have received no help from the SNP, when it is within their power NOW), the people suffering under the so called "rape clause" (slogan recently retired?) and the general benefit of society.
If you think that the impoverishment of various segments of society (by lets say 5* austerity) is a price you are willing to pay, then at least be up front about it to the other turkeys who might be voting for Christmas and have less of a safety net.
The finance paper even led Nichola to say that Scotland would deal with a deficit in the same way that other countries do (Ahem .. austerity).
How does that make you feel?
TL:DR
It IS important or the SNP wouldn't spend so much time and effort obfuscating the truth.
Brexit is bad for the economy, Scottish independence would be bad squared.
eat_the_pudding
There is no argument (from me) that Scotland couldn’t be independent.
Only that we would be worse off if we were.
Really?
Let's say we continued every other Westminster policy as is, but did the following:
Stopped conducting foreign wars
Got rid of Trident
Adopt EU regulations for treatment of tax evading big corporations.
Collected 100% of revenue from taxes on things like whisky, oil, etc
There's a lot of saving right there.
The various flavours of govt we have had in Scotland since devolution have been fiscally responsible, and it's unlikely that would change in the short term.
Then there would be the immeasurable benefit of not having 3 parties within the Scottish govt actively working against Scotland's interests because they're getting their orders from London.
How does that make you feel?
Same as current, I guess. You keep making all these claims as fact, but it's nonsense. All you can do is point to what the starting point for an IS would be like. You are speculating.
You can try and pin us to an SNP manifesto for the next 100 years all ye like. But that's not what is going to happen. I can say that with confidence.
If Scotland has a starting point of zero deficit or is in surplus all your arguments melt. As you can't predict any further than that. You simply have no data to base it on. You don't know what the government of Scotland will look like nor can you predict the decision that will need to be made.
You crack on like mystic meg all you like though.
Stopped conducting foreign wars
Got rid of Trident
Teeny weeny savings.
Adopt EU regulations for treatment of tax evading big corporations.
Don't know much about this. You might need to think about the place to the South though, and what it's policy would be, and the likely effect on inward investment.
Collected 100% of revenue from taxes on things like whisky, oil, etc
You already do - it's accounted for in those GERS figures that show a big deficit.
Then there would be the immeasurable benefit of not having 3 parties within the Scottish govt actively working against Scotland’s interests because they’re getting their orders from London.
Who says the interests of England and Scotland are mutually exclusive? They're fairly similar economies. The UK's economic performance has been perfectly respectable over the last few decades, compared to similar mature economies; I find the notion that the UK Govt are deliberately hobbling Scotland, reducing their tax take and increasing their spending, curious to say the least. iScot would have to grow at a massive rate for the next few decades to make up the difference, and exceptionalism isn't really an argument for suggesting this will happen.
"Why would England want to stay in a Union with Scotland if they're so fiscally dependent" is a counter-argument you hear... I think that Scotland brings a lot to the Union: resources, tourism, agriculture, and it's very well placed for future opportunities like renewables. It's not as simple as "England subsidises Scotland", in fact London subsidises everywhere else, Scotland less than most of the rest of the UK. The costs of separation would be very large and Scotland's position is very handy geo-strategically. The future isn't certain, so the bigger and broader your hand, and the more self-reliant you can be, the better placed you are to handle whatever comes next. That's what's in it for England.
I agree with everything eat the pudding has said, and I think it's very nice that this hasn't got Twitter-shouty on such an emotive subject!
Teeny weeny savings
Massive ideolgical difference though.
airtragic
...You already do – it’s accounted for in those GERS figures that show a big deficit...
Those GERS figures are estimates.
The problem I see with them is that a lot of the big money Scottish companies have their HQ in London.
I cannot see what mechanism is used to allocate Scottish revenue from them - it all appears to be allocated as English in those cases.
Am I missing something?
Like the really big market in the EU?
True, however for Scotland our biggest market by some considerable way is the rest of the UK.
kennyp
True, however for Scotland our biggest market by some considerable way is the rest of the UK.
And unlike all the other countries that got independence from the UK, they are going to stop trading with us?
Is that what you're implying?
epicyclo,
You're doing it again.
Disagreeing with the SNPs current (not perfect but more than book of dreams) realistic view of Scotlands economy.
Airtragic is right about trident whisky etc. etc. (I refer you to my first post in this thread on the same subject)
So;
a) explain why Nicola/SNP are hiding Scotlands TRUE RICHES® (in a report written by their favourite economist that was delayed by about 18 months, possibly because they actually believed what they were shovelling in 2014 and were confused by reality), or
b) explain what bits of society indyscot won't need that amount to 13Bn ish (NHS or Pensions or social care?).
Or just say that "economics don't matter" until you really mean it and try to carry that thought in the same brain that thinks things like social care and the NHS are worth having.
EDIT: It bears repeating that GERS are produced by Nicola's employees in her own Stats department. The Scottish Government have improved them and continually refine them. They say themselves that no request for information to Westminster has ever gone unanswered (subject of an FOI a while ago) Why would she/they get them wrong in a way that you keep harping on about?
Also. _ALL_ economic figures are estimates, thats why we have statisticians.
Here have a read LINK Thank me later 🙂
seosamh,
Try getting a mortgage on the basis that "I look broke based on todays figures but thats only the starting point, and you can't know what will happen tomorrow". Enjoy.
And unlike all the other countries that got independence from the UK, they are going to stop trading with us?
Is that what you’re implying?
Same question re leaving the EU! Which I also think is wrong-headed.
Massive ideolgical difference though.
True, but I’d suggest there’s a certain hypocrisy in wanting to sit under NATO’s umbrella whilst being anti-nuclear. Bit nimbyish.
And unlike all the other countries that got independence from the UK, they are going to stop trading with us?
Is that what you’re implying?
Of course they will still trade with us, but on less favourable terms. If Scotland walks away greedily saying "This is our oil and we're not going to share a drop of revenue with the rest of you" then the rest of the UK will apply harsh terms on any trade agreements, and who could blame them.
The brutal reality is that in any trade agreement the upper hand lies with the bigger of the two parties. As Scotland would find out. We certainly wouldn't be bankrupt, or even poor, just not nearly as well off as we are just now.
seosamh,
Try getting a mortgage on the basis that “I look broke based on todays figures but thats only the starting point, and you can’t know what will happen tomorrow”. Enjoy.
You are right government financies are exactly the same as personal financies. 😆
Can we get some more bullshit please?
This is our oil and we’re not going to share a drop of revenue with the rest of you
If you notice when I mention 15 to 8% that means without oil. So going forward on the current trajectory, when I think a ref should be held ie late 2020s, Scotland will be in surplus without the oil. Oil is already an irrelevant point at the minute. I the future we should only treat it as a bonus. Nothing more.
**** the oil! 😆
seosamh
You're right. The bullshit shovelled by the SNP through 2014 was dense and smelly.
It's a wee bit better now.
You should offer your explanatory services.
If the SNP aren't interested there's a chap called Farage darn saff who needs you to explain how Brexit is a great thing (despite economics) using your special skills.
I wonder how much England would be prepared to pay to lease Faslane.
Eat the pudding It's obvious that economics matters. Everybody would agree that it should be easier to have more generous social security and better health services if a country is more wealthy. However decisions about looking after the poorest or weakest are not only about economics. It's about the kind of society you aspire to become. Ghandi said ‘the true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members’. A bigger slice of a smaller pie for those in need might mean less for those who have enough or more than enough but produce a healthier more unified society
I'm not claiming Scottish exceptionalism .
I also wonder if the last 10years of austerity was imposed for economic reasons or for idealogical ones.
epicyclo,
You’re doing it again.
Disagreeing with the SNPs current (not perfect but more than book of dreams) realistic view of Scotlands economy...
You bet I disagree with the SNP. They are doing several things that are detrimental to the less populated parts of Scotland, but I can see why, and any other party would have the same dilemma - not having full fiscal autonomy.
Independence would get us that fiscal autonomy, and how we voted to have our finances allocated wouldn't be subject to the approval of the bunch of braying upper class hyenas and ideological one socialist worlders who are currently buggering up Brexit in Westminster.
The independence movement is not the SNP.
Oh come on.. Even the SNP didn't want fiscal autonomy when they realised it meant a 13 Bn cut. The SNP can distribute the cash Scotland gets in taxes (plus 13BN) how they want right NOW, and you think having LESS money and the same (or slightly different) government will make things better?
If seosamh rejects the job explaining the benefits of brexit for Farage.. would you like to step up to the plate and take a swing?
PS. Despite all the deeply held feelings and passionate expressions of Scottish exceptionalism it seems that economics is still looking more important than flags.
Honestly not surprised but nice to have it confirmed 😉
eat_the-pudding
Despite all the deeply held feelings and passionate expressions of Scottish exceptionalism it seems that economics is still looking more important than flags.
Based on the way the UK economy is run, I suspect haruspication would serve us better than economic theory.
At least with haruspication you get to eat the goose... 🙂
Staying in the UK I can only see economic state of Scotland getting worse year on year. Scotland has a small aging population which needs addressed sooner rather than later. It has somewhat different needs to the UK as a whole and attempts to address those needs can too easily be over ruled by UK government as they are not always in the interests of the UK.
In a hard brexit scenario and with the prevailing attitude dominating politics in England, does anyone honestly believe that '13Bn' is going to continue to go north of the border for much longer? Is it hell.
There is no great choice really for the short term. It's shite sandwich or shite sandwich as far as I am concerned. The best long term prospects for me is Scotland out of the UK and in the EU. Time to make the break from the union, grow the economy and sort out the aging population. Make cuts where they can be made with minimum impact, and borrow to mitigate against the worst.
It has somewhat different needs to the UK as a whole and attempts to address those needs can too easily be over ruled by UK government
UK government has little power to overrule. Matters are mostly either devolved or reserved which quite clearly allocated them to the devolved administrations or UK government. In some cases, legislation is mixed but that is a lot less common.
grow the economy and sort out the aging population
What specific policies would that entail and what are the costs/funding of them? Bear in mind the Growth Commission concluded that Scotland would start independent life with a large deficit and could not find any alternative to a few decades of austerity to sort it out. The SNP
What powers does Scot Gov need that it doesn't currently have and how would they be used?
Why does growing the economy require independence?
Besides the Growth Commission, I've not yet seen anyone propose a Scottish Budget and a costed set of policies that show how we could be different and that also requires independence to make it so. It's easy to wave hands and say "we need to grow the economy." It is a lot harder to say how but the how is the key bit. Even the Growth Commission said that some of its objectives could be met with devolved powers but unfortunately it didn't separate what would be done under existing frameworks from what could be done under independence.
Powers - all the economic levers belong to Westminster and Scotland has no powers to borrow. When your budget is set outside of your control you have very little actual control
UK government has little power to overrule. Matters are mostly either devolved or reserved which quite clearly allocated them to the devolved administrations or UK government. In some cases, legislation is mixed but that is a lot less common.
It can't overrule things that are devolved but it can and does decline requests to make changes to things that are reserved.
What specific policies would that entail and what are the costs/funding of them?
Immigration for starters. We have different needs and opinions over immigration. Student visas as well so students can stay and work for a while after graduation. Settled people either in secure jobs, business owners, young families being removed from the country by home office policy against wishes of Scottish officials.
What powers does Scot Gov need that it doesn’t currently have and how would they be used?
Why does growing the economy require independence?
All of them. They would be used with Scottish needs as a priority. The economy is all ready growing slowly. That's with policies being set by two different governments that are at odds with each other. It doesn't take a huge leap to believe that the economy would grow faster if either the two governments were aligned or if all decisions were made by one party, therefore removing any conflicts.
grumpsculler
UK government has little power to overrule...
That's an amazing statement in view of what has been happening lately.
EG the grabbing of Scotland's powers currently held by the EU.
epicyclo..
"power grab"
We're going to need an SNP slogan Klaxon!
Please name one (just one) power currently held by the Scottish Government which has been grabbed.
I'll wait.
Maybe you can ask Nicola for a list when you call her to tell her where the hidden riches are?