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[Closed] Component shortages - when will they end?

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I think a large part of this is people like us who saw it (or brexit) coming and are sitting on a cupboard full of 5 complete replacement drivetrains and 10 years worth of brake pads.

I doubt there's enough of us to have made a major difference.

Having basically standardised my quiver to 11 speed Shimano, I'm hoping I'll make it through the Great Shortage, even if it means cannibalising one bike for another.

It's also making me think about what I'm riding and taking even fewer risks than normal lest I break a bike part (as opposed to myself).


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 2:42 pm
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I often wonder how much of the “when will the component shortages end” questions paraphrase as “when will I be able to buy stuff at 25% discount like before the pandemic?”

I paid £75 for my first NX cassette and £99 for my second. I wasn’t exactly happy about paying full price, but I was ecstatic that my bike was rideable again.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 2:45 pm
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I often wonder how much of the “when will the component shortages end” questions paraphrase as “when will I be able to buy stuff at 25% discount like before the pandemic?”

So true. If you used to buy from EU, but now choose not to, then the shortage is of your own making.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 2:58 pm
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I often wonder how much of the “when will the component shortages end” questions paraphrase as “when will I be able to buy stuff at 25% discount like before the pandemic?”

There are key components you will not be able to buy at all this year, from both the big S component companies.

but now choose not to

Er... where did choice come into it? Some of the biggest holders of aftermarket components in Europe do not ship spares to the UK now. Something something Brexit.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 3:01 pm
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Thank heavens I'm (relatively) stocked up. Nothing crazy but I've got pretty much a whole bike-year worth of most bits at least. I could also 'Christmas Tree' my full susser for my more ridden hardtail if things get really tight.

I feel a teensy bit guilty about it, but that's the reality of Brexit Britain. I didn't vote for this shit.

🤷‍♂️


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 3:27 pm
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I have replaced a few bits this year with no real hassle but I have fallen back on Bikester a couple of times. Running 10 speed so as a few have said less stress, I just got a Deore 11-46 cassette for under £42 delivered which is not far off pre brexit prices


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 4:08 pm
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I understand there is a difference between me wanting to buy a single SLX cassette in a blue and grey cardboard box, and a bike manufacturer buying a crate of 1000 full SLX drivetrains; even though the cassette is the same lump of steel and aluminium.

What I don't get, is quite how shimano and the distributors sort this out, or rather how the last 18 months has changed things, possibly to the detriment of us folk that are repairing an existing bike.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 4:08 pm
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What question are you asking that hasn't already been answered in this thread?


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 4:24 pm
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Its not so much been answered as had a variety of conflicting opinions at it.

In the past my understanding that half the point of getting the OEM contract with a bike brand - by offerening them bulk buy drivetrains, brakes, suspension at basically cost price - was that you were getting your foot in the door for the customer that is going to spend the next few years buying your cassettes, and your chains and your brake pads at a much higher markup.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 4:33 pm
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I understand there is a difference between me wanting to buy a single SLX cassette in a blue and grey cardboard box, and a bike manufacturer buying a crate of 1000 full SLX drivetrains; even though the cassette is the same lump of steel and aluminium.

Bike manufacturers are also chasing these parts. That's why dates for new bikes keep moving. Supply problems have hit OEM hard, not just aftermarket spares.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 5:11 pm
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My LBS is closing down (a branch of a larger chain). Apparently one reason is that they can’t get the parts to do repairs, so the repair side of the business is no longer viable.

I don't know if this has happened to a shop up in Sunderland (Darke Cycles) too, it was closed on Saturday morning when we rode past it :/


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 5:17 pm
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What I don’t get, is quite how shimano and the distributors sort this out, or rather how the last 18 months has changed things, possibly to the detriment of us folk that are repairing an existing bike.

See the second post in this thread
Or...
Customer: vaccine/need cassette/first world
Me:no vaccine/no raw materials/not first world


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 5:35 pm
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See the second post in this thread
Or…
Customer: vaccine/need cassette/first world
Me:no vaccine/no raw materials/not first world

Are restrictions still an barrier to manufacture in Asia? Aren't most things made in China?

They're currently reporting less than 50 cases a day (mostly people arriving in China) against a population of 1.4 Billion, they've also administered over 2 billion vaccines.

Word we're getting in IT is that the factories are going flat out, but they were all very efficient / lean, they're designed and built for normal demand, they can't just offer OT to increase supply because they already run 24/7 so it took a long time for supply to catch up with latent demand.

Supply of most things (basically anything that isn't a GPU or come with one) is starting to normalise again and prices are coming down from the stupid peaks of last year.

Obviously the Cycle industry enjoyed a boom in the UK (and I assume elsewhere) thanks to lockdowns etc, but so did the IT industry, millions of people don't just switch to WFH without millions of laptops being bought.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 5:55 pm
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China [is] currently reporting less than 50 cases a day (mostly people arriving in China) against a population of 1.4 Billion,

This is one for the covid thread really but Chinny Reck-on! 🤔 if that's the true infection rate or even a tenth of it I'll eat my crankset


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 8:46 pm
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China [is] currently reporting

I doubt what they report bears any relation to what is happening eg they still insist their vaccine is one of the best even though its come last in just about every study looking at it.

Back on topic I just ordered another couple of SRAM Force chains to stock up with to keep the road bike going next year...


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:04 pm
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Are restrictions still an barrier to manufacture in Asia? Aren’t most things made in China?

Shimanos main component factory is in Malaysia and is locked down/shut and has been for a while iirc


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:09 pm
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Yep - see my link above


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:15 pm
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I ordered a cassette today with an expected delivery of April 2023!


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:28 pm
 ton
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so glad i went to a rohloff at xmas.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:30 pm
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rOcKeTdOg
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Shimanos main component factory is in Malaysia and is locked down/shut and has been for a while iirc

Shimano Malaysia mostly makes lower end parts.

But, they do make some small parts that get used in higher end components so that's having a knockon effect too. Jockey wheels for much of the range, some bolts and springs and suchlike. Apparently something they're changing, to make their manufacturing more durable, but that takes time too.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 9:38 pm
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My Ribble CGR AL-e ordered June 12th with Aug 20th deliver - "It looks like the main delay is with the delivery of the electronic components from Ebikemotion"

Maybe end of November now.


 
Posted : 01/09/2021 10:28 pm
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