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No, not a movie (other than a script I'm running through my head..)
With the mid terms in mind as well as the pending verdict on that murderous mama's boy I'm thinking that those who think that the US dodged a bullet with the atempted Capitol Building insurrection are in for a rude awakening next year.
Couple of predictions;
There will be blood.
The Army will be called out.
There will be a ban on long guns and/or open carry by the end of next year.
Or;
The United States ceases to be a functioning democracy (stop laughing at the back)
Counterfactual argument; the US would have been better off if Trump had succeeded with his insurrection (say the insurrectionist had managed to kill a few politicians) as the Army would have stepped in and instituted martial law as an interim measure until Biden was inaugurated.
Trump and sons, Rudi and a few congressmen and women would be rotting in jail already.
You need a time machine in your predictions too
Meant to say 2022! Can't edit thread titles unfortunately.
As a society, I’m wondering if America isn’t already fractured beyond saving; the divisions seem to be almost too great to repair now.
While the ‘religious right’ is relatively small in number, it is usually among the wealthiest, and overwhelmingly Republicans, and they have access to ways of spreading their conspiracist propaganda through a whole variety of media that’s either owned by those who support their aims, or sympathetic to them.
I read an interesting dissection today on the ‘manifesto’ published by the ‘shaman’ who was one of those who stormed the White House and Oval Office. It’s scary reading, especially when you consider how many ‘Murcans appear to sincerely believe this stuff!
https://lithub.com/a-close-reading-of-the-qanon-shamans-conspiracy-manifesto/
America is over
That Qanon film is beyond scary!
Brilliant Jon Ronson podcast on bbc sounds on the culture wars!
^^ link please. Tried searching, but to no avail.... Thanks.
This podcast by Robert Evans gives a very insightful look at what the USA might become, admittedly less likely now that the orange skinned clown has left the oval office...
While I'm a fan of Robert Evans, you need to be a bit choosy with "It Could Happen Here" I think because it airs daily the quality of both guests, subjects and arguments can be a bit patchy
Couple of predictions;
There will be blood.
The Army will be called out.
There will be a ban on long guns and/or open carry by the end of next year.
I think the Republicans will gain some ground in the mid-terms leaving Biden's government even more ineffectual but enough to keep any lid on things boiling over.
Federal vs State always presents issues trying to change the law on something as polarising as guns. Also if the Democrats do lose the Senate in the mid-terms they've got bob hope of doing much except via executive order and I doubt they'd want to go down that route.
Or;
The United States ceases to be a functioning democracy (stop laughing at the back)
It's only a barely-functioning democracy now but I think to go from there to anarchy/revolution/civil war is a massive step that I can't see happening without much more significant events than we've already seen (and without Trump as President it's hard to see those happening). US society will no doubt become increasingly polarised (as are we) but the numbers of absolute nut-jobs that really want a civil war I expect are tiny.
Conservatism / Republicanism is starting to become a busted flush in America.
Trump only got close (well in reality not even that close) to challenging Biden due to the historical weirdness of the Electoral College. Demographics and immigration are pushing the electorate in the other direction.
This election cycle might be the last serious opportunity the Republicans have of power
There will be a ban on long guns and/or open carry by the end of next year.
This is 100% not possible in America.
As to the US being a functioning democracy - it depends what you mean by functioning. As I've said before *good* democracy needs good debate, and the quality of public debate in the US is already at zero. Nearly every media channel is being used for political purposes. Hardly any of it is concerned with how best to run the country, it's all about how to get one team to win at any cost.
This election cycle might be the last serious opportunity the Republicans have of power
And what do unscrupulous, desperate people with lots of money and influence do when they see their power waning...
The US is just a completely different social set up from the UK, you sometimes forget that, could you imagine a right wing 17 year old wandering round the UK during some type of riot/demonstration with an assault rifle, even if we had gun rights like the old days?
And what do unscrupulous, desperate people with lots of money and influence do when they see their power waning…
Put on a blue rosette at election time?
Pull of a lurch to the left in republican politics?
Fulfil their keyboard warrior bloodlust and storm the capitol building with a few thousand other nutjobs taken from a pool of 350million?
Fuzzy Wuzzy,
The Republicans don't need to gain ground in the mid terms to take control of Congress. Gerrymandering (redistricting) conducted by the Republicans over the last year means that an identical turn out to the last election would flip the house for Republicans. Stop the steal eh...
Molgrips,
Anything is possible. No one was carrying assault rifles around before the early 2000's when Bush repealed the laws regarding long guns and the country became flooded with AR 15's. Whatever Bush's intentions the outcome is that you now have millions of heavily armed mayonnaise militia ready to take their country back.
The ban on long guns was instituted in the 60's when Black community groups, especially the Black Panthers, took up arms to defend themselves against lynch mobs and Police brutality. What we have now is a perfect recipe for history repeating itself. Back then the National Guard was called out. Today, the terroristic insurectionist bastards are much better armed so likely the Army will be needed.
Ultimately, these militias need to be taken down by force. There's just too many military weapons out there for something not to explode in the next 12 months. And as grum points out, desperate people do desperate things. There's many a Republican politician reminding the electorate of their 2nd Amendment rights, should the government come knocking on your door asking if you want a vaccine and suchlike.
The camel's back will be broken. Too many guns on it's hump.
Well, we have a few ingredients that add up to the Cake of War:
No debate is possible on Social Media
Everyone gets their information from Social Media
Media owned by politics and / or religion
Religion stamps out any form of debate
Commercial interest stamps out any form of debate
Economy under extreme pressure
Climate change will exacerbate economic pressure
Poor job security is normal in the US
No safety net for unemployed, uninsured in the US
Race problems in the US also hinder debate
Pressure from refugees will make things worse
Its a large country with diverse needs
So actually the more you think about it, the harder it is to see a stable outcome.
Things are so fundamentally entrenched in extreme positions a lot has to break before it gets fixed.
The culture is just so different over there its hard for us to comprehend.
"thisisnotaspoon -
Fulfil their keyboard warrior bloodlust and storm the capitol building with a few thousand other nutjobs taken from a pool of 350million?"
You are playing down an attempted murderous insurrection with all the flair of Andrew Neil..."nothing to see here" (as the beast of tweet street tweeted as the insurrection commenced.)
To argee's point, there's a difference between a UK keyboard warrior and an American one who can put the keyboard down and pick up an assault weapon when their fingers get a little itchy.
You seem rather blase, did you know the attack on the Capitol was coming, or were you at least a little bit surprised? Some of us knew it was coming and posted on here to that effect a couple of days before January 6th. The fact that it didn't 'succeed' is the biggest red herring, it was only a beginning.
Ergo my initial point, that had the attack succeeded in the short term, the Military would have taken control and the traitors dealt with. American democracy might ultimately depend upon where the allegiance of the Military command lies more than it does on Judicial process.
I predict Vlad the Emailer will be bouncing up and down, clapping and shouting "Bol'she botov! Bol'she botov!"
Whatever Bush’s intentions the outcome is that you now have millions of heavily armed mayonnaise militia ready to take their country back.
Do they? How many people are actually prepared to take up arms against their own country? I mean real numbers not handwavey probablies and opinions.
Trimix,
Plus guns, lots and lots and lots of them. A semblance of stability is still possible even when all the conditions that you mention are met.
It's the guns and the laws that currently exist around them that tip the balance. Its the last gasp for White supremacist America and the Republican party, their motto is fast becoming 'when all else fails (especially reason) shoot someone.
Whilst all of those conditions can be seen as fuelling the divisions and stoking up tensions, Id argue that its the other way round. If you furnish an ignorant, belligerent mob of pudgy mediocrity and entitlement with military assault weapons they are going to look for enemies to put in their sights.
This election cycle might be the last serious opportunity the Republicans have of power
I wouldn’t be too certain of that, like their counterparts here in the U.K., they think nothing of using any type of propaganda necessary in order to get votes, along with various tactics to wreck opportunities for opposition voters to vote, also happening here. And then there’s the obsessive tribalism of Republicans:
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/house-censure-vote-paul-gosar-shows-how-rarely-gop-breaks-n1284070
What a load of nonsense. As has been pointed out the percentage of people who would consider raising arms is tiny
There will quite possibly be isolated terrorist events, and maybe even a repeat of small scale insurrection such as what we saw in Washington, but a civil war?? Don’t be daft..
What a load of nonsense. As has been pointed out the percentage of people who would consider raising arms is tiny
Pretty much. Heard people going on about it being on the cusp here, I almost died laughing it's even less likely in the UK. A bit of mild disapproval maybe.
"There will quite possibly be isolated terrorist events, and maybe even a repeat of small scale insurrection such as what we saw in Washington, but a civil war?? Don’t be daft.."
The Civil War thing was click bait by the way, I don't expect one in the immediate future as I believe the Armed forces are still on the side of the constitution but should the Republican Party ultimately succeed in their efforts to destroy democracy (see Count Zero's post) then whose to say what might happen down the road. Never say never and all that...
A question for tpbiker and Chester: Were you expecting an event like Jan 6th to occur or we're you at least a little bit surprised?
Also, we're you expecting almost the entire Republican Party to rally around Trump within days of the insurrection, either denying it ever happened or categorizing it as 'a tourist visit'? How many elected Republicans do you think are prepared to take America to the brink given the choice and if they thought they had the support of a sizeable contingent within the Army?
"Pretty much. Heard people going on about it being on the cusp here, I almost died laughing it’s even less likely in the UK. A bit of mild disapproval maybe."
The right wing here in the UK are copycatimg a lot of Trumpist strategies but they don't have heavily armed militia to defend statues etc, they have to rely on pissed up football hooligans to do their bidding.
Now if you were to imagine those football hooligans policing the Parliament Square BLM protest clad in body armour, holding a machine gun and exchanging fist bumps rather than fists with the police then you might see a little more danger in what's occurring over in the States.
My argument is very crude, if you arm millions of plastic patriots with military grade weaponry there will inevitably be consequences. At the end of the day, (crass football analogy) those hooligans got the shit kicked out of them on their way home. Those American gun toting patriots who turn up to protests to'protect and serve' would also likely get the shit kicked out of them if they didn't have guns.
Were you expecting an event like Jan 6th to occur or we’re you at least a little bit surprised?
Not massively surprised no. Let’s not blow what happened out of proportion. A couple of thousand angry red necks and nut jobs turned up at the capitol building to protest and pushed there way in for an afternoon before being kicked out again. This wasn’t exactly an armed militia taking over government.
Think of the US as Squid Games 2 and just enjoy it.
You can't change it. Well not with a post here at any rate.
tpbiker,
That's certainly one way of looking at it and one that chimes with those who saw it as a tourist visit. ('tis but a flesh wound.)
Anyone care to answer the counterfactual question;
What would have happened if Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi had been killed?
Think of the US as Squid Games 2 and just enjoy it.
Never seen it, so not sure about the comparison, but while I certainly don’t see the mass taking up of arms by a bunch of poorly educated mall ninjas, I do see much more local conflict between ever more marginalised people, and an increasingly militant and militarised police with no fear of repercussions when they openly abuse anyone who isn’t white.
"Think of the US as Squid Games 2 and just enjoy it.
You can’t change it. Well not with a post here at any rate."
Now you tell me, I thought all the World Leaders checked in at STW for policy ideas. Certainly Donald Trump seemed to be following Chewkw's advice to a tee.
What would have happened if Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi had been killed?
Someone would have been charged with murder. And I imagine the condemnation would have been far greater from the republicans than it was.
But they weren’t so it’s totally irrelevant.
Were you expecting an event like Jan 6th to occur or we’re you at least a little bit surprised?
Surprised not really. America has always had more than it's fair share of nutters. It was a protest (founded on bullshit), a building got smashed up and one person died. None of the functions of government were severely affected and it wasn't state wide or supported by the majority of the populace.
It was pretty ineffectual and just a showpiece. Looked good on the showing off, gossip and stupidity network if you're into that kind of thing.
"But they weren’t so it’s totally irrelevant."
It's only irrelevant for those who have no imagination (or foresight)
Irrelevant or not, you still offered a counterfactual version of events, albeit one that is rather simplistic.
Do you really think the Military would have stood by waiting for Trumps orders at that point? Once the Military disobey a presidential order you have a coup in some shape or form.
If Mike Pence hadn't been killed but other politicians had, then Trump and cohorts would have been detaimed and Pence installed as President.
Had Pence Been killed and Pelosi survived, Pelosi would have been installed as leader with the backing of the Military. They would have been standing visibly by her side, givimg the optics of a coup, obstructing any Republican attempt to filibuster.
Of course this is all predicated on the belief that Senators and Congresspersons we're actually in any danger.
I would also add that I think that had no politician been killed but some dragged out onto the lawn or others assaulted then the Army would have still stepped in. I reckon that they were a moment away from stepping in and taking control.
Still, Love to know your thoughts on the Munic beer hall putsch tp.
"It was pretty ineffectual and just a showpiece. Looked good on the showing off, gossip and stupidity network if you’re into that kind of thing."
Love to know your thoughts on the Munic beer hall putsch too chester..
The insurrection was a symptom of what America is. We haven't got to the result yet. America has a history of this. Mccarthyism
What gloomy says.
What we see in America is just history repeating itself. The last decade has been a carbon copy of the Mccarhy and Civil Rights eras.
Just as Jim Crow was payback for the abolition of slavery, White America is now looking for payback for the granting of the Civil and voting rights acts. Back then Bull Connor used to beat people trying to register to vote in the South with a Billy club. Now the Republicans are swinging that club nationwide.
Love to know your thoughts on the Munic beer hall putsch too chester..
As a compare and contrast exercise. Hmmm if you like start another thread.
Barely a whimper after the verdict, probably a good time to have this trial end, the week before thanksgiving and black friday!
Rittenhouse.... How TF. How does he get off.
If ever people needed an excuse to get ****ing angry this is surely it.
How can they call it a justice system?
Even the judge was a known Trumper. Not even considering a charge for running around with an assault rifle, let alone not being charged for murder.
It ****ing stinks.
Rittenhouse…. How TF. How does he get off.
Looks to me from the footage that at the time he fired, he probably was genuinely acting in fear of his life.
However, any system that let's what appeared to be a vulnerable teenager arm himself with an automatic rifle and go looking for trouble is completely messed up.
And of course, had he been black, he wouldn't have got as far as giving himself up.
Rittenhouse…. How TF. How does he get off.
Because he had a pretty good case for self defence - this seems to be a pretty good summary of the facts which sadly have largely been unreported.
Because he had a pretty good case for self defence
You missed out the "and he is white" bit.
Having a pretty good case for self-defence but being black definitely doesn't carry as much weight in the USA.
This goes back decades :
I am not sure how relevant an article about killings of black men by whites is in this context, his victims were all white - although the Independent was running a headline to the contrary. Not denying that there is plenty of injustice particular against the Blacks in the US, sadly a bang to rights example will no doubt come along in the near future - but this case doesn't seem to be nearly what it was made out to be in much of the media and as the author of the piece I linked pointed out that increases divisions.