Hi Everyone
Stock issues have always been an issue for us, and sales forecasting has proved quite challenging.
Lets say our sales growth for an individual item has been between from -100% to +500%, so even if we forecast for growth, where are then going to have to find several million pounds to buy all the extra stock.
Of course we can do that, and have thought about it. But what happens if you forecast 200% in sleeping bag sales but actually have -100%. You dont sleep so well, thinking about the debt payments.
This year we committed heavily to keeping our entire sleeping mat range (which we did and no one comments on when you have the stock in) as the only way you know if you have no lost sales is to buy too much. No one can forecast Sales + 1 item. If you can, we might have a job for you.
However sometimes the supply chain / reorder cycle makes it difficult to keep up with demand. We cant just reorder and wait a few weeks to get more stuff in. It takes several months. We do keep on top of this but, lets say we have worked on 20% growth and we get a couple of reviews in magazine all of sudden the stock that was going to last those few months to the next stock coming in only last a few days, hey presto we are out of stock.
In might not seem it but we are getting better, however the more we supply quality gear at affordable pricing with proper customer service the more customers we get. We used apologis for being out of stock but now think it’s because we work really hard doing a good job. No point in a merchandiser thinking they have done a good job coping with 6.83% extra sales, just because the promotion team havent been busting a gut. If a few of the guys work hard with promoting the site then sometimes we see thousands of extra people each week that means a few extra hundred orders a month, that soon eats in to your forecast model. If Tescos and Apple cant sell me an iphone for months, given one is one of the most sophistication retailers on the planet and one is a highly profitable private company then i know that sometime stuff just happens.
The customer list mean that we can give the people who waited the longest the best chance to buy a bag. Yes we could take preorders and the like and that would cure all our cashflow problems and the need to borrow loads of money, i can explain this in one word, Watchdog.
Just think of all those companies who all got a bit clever and perhaps greedy, our way we take all the risk, if you dont want the bag then dont order, if you do want it then you know we will send it out to you.
Our registration system hasnt “gone” down, we just took it of line as we had to many people on the list if you want to get on the list for deliveries next year then it’s up on the support page.
If we have messed up anyone then if you can send me your confirmation email i’ll see what i can do.
I think i covered everything.
Cheers
Nick