A few years ago I realised that I was watching quite a lot of bicycle racing and building up a pretty good picture of who was in form.

I had a look at betting odds and realised that there were riders on form who had good long odds and that given the (often) unpredictable nature of one day racing it was well worth a flutter on a smaller name rider with big form.

I have had absolutely no success with this so far but it hasn’t cost me much, it’s been a lot of fun and one win would cover about 200 years of this activity.

Anyone else doing similar?

No, but I will. Where?

I’ve just been on Ladbrokes but I’m sure others are available.

Obviously there’s not much interest in betting on people with van in their name, the fun is in in-form outsiders.

Bling Matthews looked strong at Paris Nice today. A good bet for Milan San Remo I think.

Bling Matthews looked strong at Paris Nice today. A good bet for Milan San Remo I think.

A good prediction yes, but not a good bet, odds will be crap on him as a big name favourite. My fun is all about picking an unfancied rider in good form.

Ok then. 20/1 doesn’t seem that crap to me. How about Anthony Turgis at 150/1. 4th in Flanders last year so has the stamina and sprinted well at KBK last week. Or Jake Stewart at 100/1. Total unknown at this level but one for the future?

. 20/1 doesn’t seem that crap to me.

That’s better than I thought for him. I’ve gone for Benoot at 250/1. He’s been well to the fore at PN and looking good. Not really suited to MSR and might be on team duties there but definitely one to watch on the cobbles.

I might sign up and throw a tenner on Kwia.

I might sign up and throw a tenner on Kwia.

That’s a heart not head pick. And why not? 🙂

Throw a bundle into Phil Gil for MSR? Bash the bookies with hopeless sentimentality bets.

You’re right that watching week in week out does give you a pretty good picture of where the legs are. On the one hand it seems like a complete lottery, so many mega-strong riders who can win in principle. But on the other, the key selections give you the absolute brass-tacks picture of who is in form as there’s no soft-pedalling your way into the sharp end of a Classics race.

I wonder how vdP will get on being THE MAN. Sagan was the unequivocal strongest rider over several years and has won two monuments.

That’s better than I thought for him. I’ve gone for Benoot at 250/1. He’s been well to the fore at PN and looking good. Not really suited to MSR and might be on team duties there but definitely one to watch on the cobbles.

Personally I wouldn’t give bookmakers a penny, but that aside I reckon Benoot is a very good outside bet. He’d need things to go his way ie the main guys crashing or marking each other out, but on the day and with a bit of luck he’s got to be in with a shout. He’s had plenty top ten finishes in one day classics, rides for a strong team and he’s Belgian, so just maybe this will be his year.

Benoot is also now working with a very astute DS/coach in Matt Winston. Tactically, DSM rode brilliantly last year.

I went E/W on Bettiol and Fuglsang at Strade.

I went E/W on Bettiol and Fuglsang at Strade.

Bettiol must be due another big one soon. He’s very adept at flying under the radar.